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Road trip

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Everything posted by Road trip

  1. Road trip
    You've over-rated Gladden quite a bit. He was aging and no longer very good in 1991, and the Twins let him go after the season (OPS+ of 80, Yikes!). Wallner has his issues as well to be sure. LF was not a strength for either squad. You've underrated Shane Mack, who was excellent in 1991. By WAR he was their second most valuable player, playing an excellent RF and slugging for an OPS+ of 140. Kepler has had a good year but for a brief period of time Shane Mack was an absolute stud. Mack should really be better remembered in Twins lore. But overall, I agree this team compares well with '91. Like then, something *feels* different about this squad.... or maybe I just feel different after watching two decades of playoff futility.
  2. Road trip
    Agree completely, set the d*#! game times. Ticket holders need to make plans. It's 2023, many/most of the tv watchers aren't watching it live on Fox/FS1 anyway. Between the FoxSports app, along with DVR's, a significant percentage of viewers are watching the game later in the day, even if it is a day game. I'll be doing so again today (work, y'know). By the way, significant bonus on the Fox Sports app: If you wait until after the game is over Fox Sports presents the archived game without ANY commercial breaks. Innings just roll from one to the next without any break.
  3. Road trip
    The decision to pull Berrios was a very poor one, but didn't cost Toronto the game. If you had told Schneider before the game "Do this and you will hold the Twins to 2 total runs", I suspect he would take that bargain. I certainly wouldn't have felt good about the Twins chances if I had known they were only going to score 2. Hitting and base running (and a little bad luck in terms of where their hard-hit balls went) cost Toronto any chance to win. When you score zero you will lose every single time. Jays players can understandably grumble about the decision, but the offense scored 1 run the entire series. That won't work.
  4. Road trip
    This is where I stand as well. Save Ryan for game 4 at Target Field. Outside of Denver, I'm not certain there is a worse ballpark for Ryan to pitch in than Minute Maid. It brutally punishes fly ball pitchers with that short left field fence. And then, after we beat the Astros we can line Ryan up to start in the big ballpark at Camden Yard 😁
  5. Road trip
    Overall this seems about right. It's close between Gray and Lopez for #1, and a razor thin margin between Ryan and Ober for #4. I lean towards Ober, but it's close, and probably believe Ryan to have the greater long-term potential. This is the deepest and likely the strongest Twins pitching staff since the 1960s, even if we may grumble a bit about perceived deficiencies in the bullpen. Enjoy it while we have it!
  6. Road trip
    Say what you will about Wallner's overall defense, but a lot of left fielders get run on when the ball goes to the corner like that. It's often a double. He's got a reputation already..
  7. Road trip
    Ok, yes, I think I'm convinced it is correct to stay with the original "Gray in game 2 plan", largely due to Flying Finn's argument on making every effort to get Lewis an extra day off. I still *really* don't want to see Ryan start game 1 in Houston if the Twins win today, but that is an argument for another day (hopefully). And it obviously isn't going to change at this point anyway...
  8. Road trip
    So would it be crazy to swap our starters for Game 2? The Twins have game 1 in the win column. IF the Twins start Ryan and win (Ryan would be on normal rest), they can start Gray in game 1 vs the Astros, followed by Lopez. If we start Ryan and lose, we still have Gray for game 3 vs Toronto. If Gray needs to be used in game 3 vs Toronto (and wins), it doesn't penalize the rotation for the Houston series, as he would still be on track to start game 3 of the Astros series (next Tuesday), just as projected if he starts game 2 vs Toronto today. Bonus #1 - If there is a high-pressure elimination game 3 vs Toronto, we have our most veteran starter available. Added Bonus #2... it means we can back Ryan up to game 3 or 4 (at home) of the Houston series, instead of a potential game 1 start if the Twins win today. Ryan has extreme home-road splits. He would be especially vulnerable to fly balls in Houston's band-box stadium. Is there any down-side to doing this?
  9. Road trip
    Indeed. And it didn't help that game times weren't announced until Sunday night. Tough for many to clear the work calendar that quickly. Maybe it maximizes tv revenue to not play all games at night, but baseball is increasingly a regional game. I'll watch all of the Twins games, but the other wildcard games this week...meh... maybe a bit, to whatever degree it is convenient. Seems the teams would make a lot more money at the gate if they played at night.
  10. Road trip
    Against a tough right handed starter I wouldn't be surprised to see Castro get the start in Center Field over Taylor. That has happened semi-frequently the past few months. Of course, this assumes that Lewis is able to come back healthy and Castro isn't needed at 3B. I suspect Castro will start at least one wildcard game somewhere, position to be determined.
  11. Road trip
    Well, sure, as professionals the Rays will try. Hitters will try to hit, and pitchers will throw as well as they can, but unless Baltimore loses their next four in a row the AL East race is over (magic # is 1). Management will be different though. I seriously doubt the Rays start Eflin on Sunday, which would be his normal rest. They will save him for game 1 or 2 of the wildcard round. Likewise, any regular who is nursing a minor injury will get a day or two off this weekend. Bullpen workloads will also be managed carefully on Saturday and Sunday, because a manager must put his own team's interest first. We would expect Rocco to do the same. Having said all that, could the Jays blow it anyway? Sure, it could happen. Just not real likely.
  12. Road trip
    FanGraphs has the Jays at 95% in the playoffs, using more advanced math than I have. It's possible for the Jays to miss out, but they'll have to flop pretty badly. Their last 5 are at home against the Yankees (who are a depressed mess...love it) and the Rays (who will likely be resting starters for the playoffs), so it seems likely the Jays should win at least 2 out of 5.. Then, the Astros and Mariners almost inevitably will lose a game or two given their difficult remaining schedules against teams fighting for playoff spots (one will certainly lose when they play each other tonight).
  13. Road trip
    I'll second comments choosing Funderburk over Paddack, especially if we draw the lefty-heavy Astros (Alvarez, Tucker, and Brantley) or Rangers (need a spare lefty for Seager). The Mariners don't have many scary left handers, nor do the Jays... so maybe you consider leaving Funderburk off the roster if either of them are the opponent. I'd really want to see two good appearances from Paddack before adding him. As nice as it was to see him throw hard last night, the 2nd inning was a pretty rough. Too many pitches down the middle that got hit very hard.
  14. Road trip
    The Twins alternating their catchers this year has been... genius (didn't expect that adjective, did you?). The Twins have only two major league caliber catchers in the system, and they managed to keep them both healthy for the entire year. That's remarkable, and lucky. They had depth everywhere else, but not at catcher. Just think about the injury list this year, based on the anticipated starting lineup back in March (going around the diamond): Kiriloff, Polanco, Correa, Miranda (and Lewis), Gallo, Buxton/Taylor, and Kepler. Every one of these players missed time on the IL, and many of them missed substantial time. Thankfully depth payed off everywhere else, while the two catchers stayed healthy and fresh. Partly this was due to the rotation plan, and partly due to luck. When do we ever get luck? This year at the catcher spot. As for the playoffs? I'd like to see more of Jeffers, but it is still a defense-first position and if there are starting pitcher(s) who really prefer throwing to Vazquez I'd be willing to consider that.
  15. Road trip
    Agree with Woof Bronzer. Great starters, but arguably the least reliable bullpen north of Arlington. Maybe Maeda will strengthen the pen. Maybe Varland will be great in his new role. But I can't head into the postseason confident that the Twins bullpen can consistently pitch 4 good innings, especially if it is the Pagan & Jax show for a good hunk of it. If starters are going to be pulled after 5 innings... well, hopefully the Twins offense continues to score..
  16. Road trip
    Regarding day games, MLB and the networks may choose wildcard game times depending on the size of the fan base of the road teams. Tampa will be the other host team in the AL (unless Baltimore falls apart and finishes 2nd). Tampa's fan base is even smaller than Minnesota's. In the NL, Milwaukee will host, another small fan base, probably smaller. The other host will likely be Philly or the Cubs, which I agree will be strong contenders for a prime time spot. There is also a chance Arizona hosts, which would be another small fan base. If the Twins were to draw Toronto... yup, almost guarantee a day game. If they draw Houston though? I'll bet that ends up at night.
  17. Road trip
    I suspect Floro loses his spot, if Twins need to add Paddack or Alcala (and I'm skeptical on both). Funderburk would be claimed immediately if he were removed from the 40 man roster. We aren't deep in lefties, so he's absolutely a must-keep for next year, even if he may not make the post season roster this year (although I'd be tempted to roster him depending on how much left-handed power our future opponent turns out to have). The other potential 40 man cuts would be Celestino (possible) and Gallo (too obvious, so it won't happen).
  18. Road trip
    There was a lot of angst on this site when the Twins traded Rortvedt. Unfortunately he isn't even coming close to Drew Butera level offense. Still young enough to improve, but I'm starting to doubt he will ever hit enough to even be a backup MLB catcher.
  19. Road trip
    I've said this in other threads, but I'd take Ober instead of Paddock if we are converting another starter to a relief role. Paddock has never relieved in MLB (the same is true of Ober), is recovering from surgery, and has an inferior career track record to Ober (and frankly it isn't that close). I simply don't get the fascination with including Paddock as a relief option. I know some think we need to save Ober to potentially start game one of the next series, but that's putting the cart before the horse. Worry about the next series AFTER winning the first one... Take your best 10 or 11 pitchers for the first series.
  20. Road trip
    My heart wants to believe. My head says no, he hasn't been healthy or very productive all year. It's the playoffs. Listen to your head.
  21. Road trip
    I'm absolutely taking Ober. One poster called him one of the Twins "10 Best" pitchers. I'd probably put him in the top 5 or 6. (Duran plus the other 4 starters) I'd roster him, simultaneously hoping events play out to allow Ober to be saved for game 1 of the next series (if the first round goes 3 games), but keeping him available. Ober is the "break glass in case of emergency" pitcher... like an early line drive off of a starting pitcher's ankle. Or an extra inning playoff game. Look, we know Rocco is going to burn through relievers pitching one inning or less. He's done it all year, and he will likely give starters less leash in the postseason. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where it's the top of the 10th, and Varland, Pagan, Jax, Thielbar, and Duran have all been used already. I'd want Ober available for that scenario alone. He can go multiple innings in a potentially long game. Remember, no "ghost runners" in post-season MLB games...
  22. Road trip
    Possibly not. Given how close the race is for that last wildcard spot, the Astros, Jays, Mariners, and Rangers may be all hands on deck the last couple of regular season games just to make the playoffs. It's plausible that the last wildcard seed will have to burn through their ace pitchers at the end..
  23. Road trip
    In May it looked like a pretty bad trade for the Twins. Today it looks like a pretty good trade for the Twins. It'll probably flip back and forth for a few years, as injuries or ineffectiveness plague either Lopez or Arraez. Arraez's knees have received numerous mentions in the comments. That is fair. He will always be moderately more likely to miss time than a typical MLB 2nd baseman. Less frequently noted though is that all MLB starting pitchers are at risk of arm problems, or sudden downturns in effectiveness. There are a very small number of Verlanders or Scherzers who enjoy long careers of consistent pitching success. There are many flashes in the pan, dominant for two or three years. I hope Lopez is on the Verlander track, but if we are honest it is way too soon to know that, and the odds remain daunting. Take a look at the Cy Young winners over the last 20 years and see all the names that were just short bursts of greatness (eg, Ray, Arrieta, Kluber, Porcello, DeGrom, Webb, etc). Hitters, meanwhile, if they are truly great hitters (and Arraez is) tend to age well. When you trade for a great hitter, you can project with a little more confidence. He may end up a DH, but if Arraez has any legs left at all I'll wager he is still hitting .300 at age 34. I absolutely hope both players have a decade of continued success. And Ted, thanks, this was one of the best reads on Twins Daily this year!
  24. Road trip
    Another goal: Keep getting the kids more at bats, to the degree their health and stamina allow (Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner). Combined, these 4 have well under 2000 MLB plate appearances... and they have all played an important role in the gradually improving Twins offense. Every little bit of experience gained will help as they prep for pressure at bats in the post season.
  25. Road trip
    I mean...yeah? But that's kind of like saying, "except for the home runs he gives up, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray have similar numbers this year". The HR's matter (as do the HBP). Maybe that's not quite what you are arguing...I may be misinterpreting. Look, I'd be quite happy if Larnach breaks out next spring, learns to hit a MLB breaking ball, wins the LF job, and becomes a solid MLB regular or better. I have no faith that his time is now based on AAA numbers. Lot's of guys hit well in AAA. Andrew Stevenson just tore up AAA this year with numbers better than Larnach's. Yet while Stevenson has provided some real value on the base paths and on defense, I don't think anybody wants to see him hit in a playoff game based on what we have seen so far. He's looked overmatched at the plate, just like Larnach did at the MLB level. To me, Larnach remains a future hope, not an October 2023 player barring injuries to the current roster.
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