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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    All the more reason for Taylor to bid. Chasing that big franchise championship.
  2. bean5302
    I'd imagine he's been involved in the bidding with a contingency plan if Taylor was interested in the Twins.
  3. bean5302
    Eh, we've got 2 more years to decide on Ryan and Ober in regard to extending while under control with little risk of either of them getting much more expensive. If they decline, the Twins dodge a bullet. If they stay the same and SWR, Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, Soto, Lewis or any other numbers of arms in the MiLB system turn out to be just as good or better, we don't need to extend them. The Twins might even be able to get a Comp pick in return by slapping Ryan or Ober with a QO. There's just no good reason to extend them right now, IMHO.
  4. bean5302
    I guess this is insurance in case guys like Miranda and Julien both look terrible this spring or something. Or maybe the Twins just want to see if they can fix France or something? At least the deal is non-guaranteed.
  5. bean5302
    None of them are good candidates for an extension right now. You lock star core players up (guys who produce 4+ WAR) to buy out free agent years in the 20s, Not generally "good" players who you control through age 30. Joe Ryan - Free agent age 32. Best season 3.1 fWAR. Ryan is an oft injured starter with a history of being good rather than great. His first half is often sparkling, and his second half is terrible. Extending guys into their mid 30s when you still have 3 years of team control isn't sound team strategy. Bailey Ober - Free agent age 32. Best season 2.9 fWAR. Ober has become durable over the past few years, but the soft tosser's upside is questionable. If Ober loses any velocity, he'll likely be a back end rotation arm, and he's already under contract past age 30. Royce Lewis - Free agent age 30. Best season 2.3 fWAR. Constantly injured and the Twins can't figure out how to coach his throws so he has little defensive value. Lewis slumped hard down the stretch last year. The superstar might be in there, but he's made Byron Buxton look like iron. Ryan Jeffers - Free agent age 30. Best season 2.3 fWAR. Jeffers is a mediocre catcher. Just a guy, not a guy you build your team around. With a league average bat in his prime, Jeffers has worked hard to adjust his game to stay relevant by massively cutting down his K rate from 36.9% in 2021 to 20.2% last year. Jeffers is basically Gary Sanchez.
  6. bean5302
    With the Timberwolves ownership arbitration officially siding with Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore today, it's basically set in stone Glen Taylor is out as the Timberwolves owner. The speculation was Glen Taylor was interested in the Twins, but only if he lost his bid to steal back the Timberwolves after the franchise experienced major gains in value. https://www.si.com/nba/timberwolves/minnesota-timberwolves-news/taylor-loses-arbitration-lore-rodriguez-set-to-take-over-wolves-lynx-01jkr4zggfdw Now that the decision is finalized, if Taylor was in the mix as an ownership candidate for the Twins, it's likely the final bidding and numbers will come quick IMHO.
  7. bean5302
    Missed this. Yes. Cashflow payout to Ohtani is his salary and the Escrow Paid.
  8. bean5302
    Because... Falvey? It's too early to be making big roster moves for him. Spring Training hasn't officially reached the half way point where Falvey realizes he has 30+ 26 man roster guys.
  9. bean5302
    Bader has never been replacement level in his career. He's never produced a season below 1.0 fWAR (save for his 92 PA rookie season). Bader ranked 15th of 27 MLB players with 300+ PA in CF last year, and he's still producing very good defensive numbers, unlike what happened with Margot. There are no promises Bader won't decline further. If he loses another step, it's likely he'd be of middling value (like Margot was), but Bader hasn't shown obvious signs of being inept like Margot did prior to Falvey selecting him. I'm not a huge fan of Bader. I'd haved liked it if Falvey spent money on legitimate plus value players instead of hording guys who are getting paid $5MM per year and hoping he gets a Carlos Santana career year rebound, but that's how Falvey works. Depth over quality. In that category of players, Bader is a better bet than most others.
  10. bean5302
    The value of data/facts depends on how applicable the data set is to the conclusion. GIGO (garbage in-garbage out) is a real thing. Not saying @ashbury 's conclusion is incorrect, but as he noted, it's tough to pinpoint how perfect the data was when applying it to the Twins in specific scenarios.
  11. bean5302
    AAA Level - ISO, wRC+ 2023 Aug - .265, wRC+ 88 Sep - .292, wRC+ 112 --------------------------- Overall - .278, wRC+ 100 ---------------------------- 2024 Apr - .146, wRC+ 51 (Includes March) May - .211, wRC+ 81 Jun - .263, wRC+ 219 Jul - .219, wRC+ 123 Aug - .094, wRC+ 68 Sep - .149, wRC+ 56 --------------------------- Overall - .180, wRC+ 101 Severino was hot 1 month, acceptable 2 months, and unplayable to poor (for 1B/DH AAA) 5 months. Overall, sure, he's got some pop if he's willing to be aggressive against MiLB pitchers, but he's been a streaky average overall for a AAA player at the plate.
  12. bean5302
    You and I couldn't be on more opposite sides on Severino haha.
  13. bean5302
    SSS analysis on Bader's splits. Bader was much better at the plate vs. LHP last year than RHP, the luck just wasn't with him. Career: vs. LHP .249/.314/.461 OPS .775 wRC+ 109 vs. RHP .239/.303/.367 OPS .670 wRC+ 84 2024 vs. LHP 6.5% BB, 18.3% K, .146 ISO (.213 BABIP) vs. RHP 3.9% BB, 23.6% K, .132 ISO (.311 BABIP) Seeing the pages and pages and pages of comments on Bader is just ridiculous. The Twins must have a starting caliber center fielder on the roster to back up Buxton. It is a MUST. A MUST. Bader fills that need at the bare minimum level. It's not because Buxton might get hurt and be out for a month, but because Buxton will miss no less than two months of time due to multiple injuries next year. In fact, Buxton typically misses at least three months per year due to various injuries. Austin Hays a29, sprint 27.1 ft/sec was abysmal in the corners last year and hasn't played more than a couple games in CF in years. Laureano a30, sprint 27.8 ft/sec was bad in the corners last year, and terrible in CF recent years. Grichuk a33, sprint 27.5 ft/sec was bad in the corners last year and had mixed metrics in CF years ago when he played it a little. None of those guys is a legitimate center fielder. Not even part-time. They're Manny Margot all over again. That's why those guys signed for cheap.
  14. bean5302
    Just giving an off the cuff example representing Rocco's philosophy and how it has seemingly hurt the team over and over again throughout the year in various situations. I've done actual data analysis before, but I didn't feel like going into it. Comments have been made about how Baldelli allowed Kepler to bat against lefties, but Keplers PA/G vs. lefties has been steadily dropping for years as Baldelli platooned him more and more. It's the situational thing.
  15. bean5302
    Three problems. 1) Keirsey is 99.99% not going to be "great" and I'd say there's an 80% chance he's not even serviceable. Martin projects as a better hitter and Martin's fielding in the minors was arguably better, and that's rough.. 2) Nobody even knows who Keirsey is away from this forum. He was #27 in the org back in 2019, and hasn't otherwise been on an MLB top 30 prospects list for the Twins. Most people are going to assume he's just some random journeyman cast off or exclaim "who's that guy? Twins bottom of the barrel feeding once again! cheap Pohlads!" when they see him on the scoreboard. 3) Selling 1 ticket (Keirsey) vs 0 tickets (Bader) doesn't make an impact worth noting.
  16. bean5302
    Not at all. I was refuting the argument which was: Utility Player = Backup. Position Player = Starter. My feel on Castro is he's clearly been deployed as a starter (as he's earned through performance), but in a utility player role. I also think Baldelli should have picked a position for Castro because he'd have provided more value with a fixed position. Probably could have clarified my position a little more.
  17. bean5302
    Looking at PA/G vs. RHP and LHP illustrates Baldelli's approach. We've all seen how quickly Baldelli pulls pitchers and batters for platoon matchups. It's not about how the game starts in a lot of cases. It has seemingly put the Twins at a significant disadvantage later in games. i.e. Wallner starts the game against a RHP. In inning 6, the opposing team goes to a LHP out of the bullpen. Baldelli pulls Wallner in favor of Margot. Wallner gets 2 plate appearances, Margot gets 3 plate appearances (1 against a LHP, 2 against RHP)
  18. bean5302
    You clearly did not read the discourse because you just agreed with me.
  19. bean5302
    Well, to be fair, Joe Pohlad is not an owner of the Twins. The ownership group is Jim, Bill, and Bob. Joe Pohlad is the spokesperson/facilitator for ownership. Saying Joe is an owner is like saying the press secretary is the president.
  20. bean5302
    Here is a list of the player who had the most plate appearances at every given position: C - 339, Jeffers 1B - 577, Santana 2B - 279, Julien 3B - 292, Miranda SS - 361, Correa LF - 184, Larnach CF - 366, Buxton RF - 129, Wallner DH - 118, Lewis* *Larnach also led the team in PA at DH, Lewis was #2 at DH at 119 PA. Do you see Castro on that list? No because he wasn't the starter at any position on the team.
  21. bean5302
    I will continue to advocate the position somebody's positional flexibility can be summed up based on how much performance loss the team sees when switching from the starter to Castro vs. the normal backup. If Castro were a full season player (assuming he could handle the position health-wise), here's what I'd expect he'd produce. Defensive Rating-ish DRS/UZR/OAA C* - 1.0 WAR, Has not played, project Awful/Awful/Awful 1B - 1.5 WAR, Has not played, project Neutral/Neutral/Neutral 2B - 2.5 WAR, Awful/Poor/Neutral 3B - 3.0 WAR, Neutral/Plus/Plus SS - 3.0 WAR, Poor/Poor/Neutral LF - 2.5 WAR, Awful/Poor/Neutral CF - 2.0 WAR, Awful/Awful/Awful RF - 3.0 WAR, Excellent/Plus/Neutral DH - 1.0 WAR, N/A *Castro would be the most offensively valuable catcher on the team, hands down. He's got a strong enough arm, and umpires have gotten pretty good with the strike zone. Castro would have like... a lot of passed balls. Maybe -20 runs as a catcher defensively? He'd still be better than Christian Vazquez, but Castro would break down almost immediately because of the extreme load on the legs so it's a moot point. Castro is not a typical utility player. His talent is being wasted by the Twins. Instead of giving Castro every day time at a position when he has the tools to become good or better defensively at every position on the field, Baldelli deploys him as a utility player. As to how much utility he really adds, compare value to the backup.
  22. bean5302
    What's fun about these types of excuses for player performance is we can test it a bit by using Statcast Metrics in Fangraphs and BaseballSavant. Mountcastle hit 13 HR last year playing 1/2 his games in Oriole Park. If he played all his games at Target Field, he'd literally have hit 15 HR. As far as changing his approach to use more of the field, I don't see compelling evidence of that. Since the Orioles are rolling back changes to their left field which should help Mountcastle a bit, but unless Mountcastle fixes his swing to reduce the grounders, I don't think he's due for a big positive swing up. He's a wRC+ 110 kind of hitter, heavily limited by his inability to take walks. He's honestly very similar to Jose Miranda IMHO. Now, in regard to what it would cost to get a guy who isn't likely to outhit Jose Miranda, BTV says +9.2 MM in value so a relatively low value package should get the job done. Jose Miranda is +16ish in value for reference.
  23. bean5302
    Pretty common for guys to lose 1mph on average EV from AAA to MLB. Max for Eeles was 107.0mph. You're right that very few MLB hitters do well at 85-86mph EVs range, but there are a couple. Arraez, Kwan, Altuve. Eeles' batted ball data shows 50% GB rate and a 17% pop up rate on fly balls. Both would traditionally be very poor indicators. Given his age, fringy batted ball data, and the scouting reports, I think Eeles would sneak into my top 20, but he'll need to do more to rise above that. Of course, if Eeles does a lot more, he'll probably get called up and fall off the prospects list either through losing rookie status or flopping.
  24. bean5302
    Correct. https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/incentive-clause
  25. bean5302
    High draft pick pedigree status. Teams always seem willing to grant additional opportunity and more resources to high rounders. Probably a function of trying to reclaim sunk costs.
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