bean5302

The problem with these kinds of articles is how fickle the emotions of the fan base are. Here's about how things stand since well after the season ended over at BTV. I think I saw proposals for all these guy except Emmanuel Rodriguez who it seems no fanbase either wants to acquire or wants to trade away. Personally, I disagree with some of these, but that's why a site like BTV exists. To help correct fan bias. Jenkins +58.4 Ober +54.1 Ryan +53.5 Lopez +47.8 Lewis +47.3 Rodriguez +45? Nobody is asking for him on BTV Wallner +38.1 Lee +37.0 Jax +28.8 Correa +25.8 Duran +24.7 Keaschall +23.3 Larnach +22.6 Festa +19.5 SWR +19.1 Julien +16.5 Jeffers +16.2 Miranda +16.1 Matthews +12.9 Buxton +10.4

Gonzalez is packing on pounds and eating his way out of a potential CF position quickly. Unfortunately, despite the weight gain, he's lost the mediocre power he was showing in previous years, and if he's going to eat his way out of defensive premium positions, he's going to need that power. It's not like he's a non-prospect, but just holding his own at A+ in his 3rd professional season wasn't the big year a lot of people hoped he'd have. Mercedes hasn't had much of an opportunity to show what he's got at a level which is projectable so it's hard to say much about him. Being good in a second go 'round of rookie ball is the bare minimum level of performance to be considered a legitimate prospect. At the same time, it's tough to hold a 47 PA sample size against him with a .227 BABIP.

Bleacher Report has the Twins as the 22nd ranked farm system. Conveniently ignored in this article is the fact Festa, Lee and Matthews all graduated from rookie status. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10136313-final-mlb-farm-system-rankings-of-the-2024-season So yeah, if you're banking on the rank as of July or August, the Twins had a top farm system. If you're talking about BoY 2024 to EoY 2024, it took a step back.

You are making a dishonest, strawman argument. Nobody is arguing analytics shouldn't play a role in team management.

At the moment, assuming a AAA replacement team would win 45 games in a season, FGDC shows Twins +45.0 WAR (90 wins) Royals +40.9 WAR (86 wins) Tigers +40.0 WAR (85 wins) Guardians +38.1 WAR (83 wins) White Sox +22.0 WAR (67 wins) I expect the Twins to lose some WAR and the Royals and Tigers to pick some up. The Tigers, in particular, have been connected to many big names this offseason like Flaherty, Bregman, Santander, Ha-seong Kim, Fedde, etc. The Royals haven't been mentioned much, but India and Massey are both candidates to significantly outperform the FGDC expectations. The Royals have been on record regarding the pursuit of a big bat for the middle of the order. On the rotation side, they're moving Bubic back into the rotation. If he's able to perform similar to last year in the rotation instead of the 'pen, there's major upside there, too. The biggest difference in the Royals and Tigers vs. the Twins is the expectation both Kansas City and Detroit could easily add $40MM to their payroll right now. The Twins are expected to cut $10MM.

Does anybody believe Rocco doesn't make decisions almost exclusively based on analytics and pre-determined strategy? Baldelli does not employ analytics the same way other teams do; Baldelli appears to employ analytics (spreadsheets/databases) to the extreme end of MLB organizations blurring the line between Baldelli being a data analyst and an MLB manager. Implying Baldelli's decision making process is robotic, and that it lacks a feel for the game feels pretty fair to me, and it has nothing to do with the "the way modern baseball is played" it has to do with the way Baldelli's Twins teams have played baseball. Baldelli's record in 2019-2024 isn't great. The 2020 season is kind of a lame duck, and Baldelli's teams have truly earned a division title only once in 5 full season years, in 2019 when the team won 101 games. They've never won more than 87 games in a full season otherwise (under Falvey/Molitor, either), and no team other than the Twins, in the pitiful AL Central, has won a division title with fewer than 88 wins during Baldelli's (or Falvey's) tenure. In 6 seasons, Baldelli's teams have won 3 playoff games and been swept out in their 2 playoff appearances. Baldelli's teams have missed the playoffs for 3 of the past 4 years where only 3 of 5 teams were competitive. Since Falvey's start in 2017, the division win in 2023 represents the only time a division has been won with fewer than 88 wins in a full season. In fact, there's less than a 1 in 10 shot a division winner has less than 90 wins (7.7%) and less than 90 wins hasn't even been a 50/50 shot at the Wildcard. If you want to excuse Baldelli for missing the playoffs 3 of 4 seasons, armed with a huge payroll advantage, in a division where 3 of 5 teams were undergoing full rebuilds, where the only other competitive team ran a payroll 50% lower than Baldelli's teams, where his team won fewer games than any other division winner in a full season in modern history, and the results included 2 late season collapses in 3 years, feel free. Set that bar right on the ground. Make all the excuses you like. Just know for every argument you make, I (and many others) see much stronger counterarguments as to why Baldelli isn't a good manager.

I don't know. Kyle Hart doesn't strike me as a guy I'd be too confident in. Hart seems to be more a guy who just went to the equivalent of AA and was better. His K rate jumped, his BB rate dropped and he gave up far fewer hits. Hart's last go 'round state side was in AAA at age 30 where he put together 88 innings of 4.58 ERA pitching with 8.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 while allowing an astronomical 9.9 hits per 9. Eric Fedde had a substantial MLB track record and he underwent some major changes from his shoulder injury recovery, mechanics and pitch offerings. With all the changes, he was absolutely dominant in the KBO. Fedde was pitching at the MLB level at age 24. Fedde vs. Hart in the KBO, then Fedde in MLB 2023 Fedde - 180.1 IP, 2.00 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.29 xFIP, 29.5% K, 4.9% BB, 0.95 WHIP 2024 Hart - 157.0 IP, 2.69 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, 28.8% K, 6.0% BB, 1.03 WHIP 2024 Fedde - 177.1 IP, 3.30 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 21.2% K, 7.2% BB, 1.16 WHIP Merrill Kelly was good in AAA at ages 24 and 25, unlike Kyle Hart, who has never enjoyed success in the high minors. Kelly's AAA line in 2014 was 114 IP, 2.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP. He was serviceable in MLB after coming back, but it took years before Kelly became "good." It'll be interesting to see what happens with Hart. If the same regression which happened for Fedde happens with Hart, you'd be looking at: 2025 Hart - 155 IP, 4.44 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 7.40 xFIP, 20.7% K, 8.8% BB, 1.26 WHIP

If he's taking a long term view of things... I don't know if the people talking to me today will be in the organization at the end of the year. I don't know if the philosophies being advocated today will still be aligned with the organization at the end of the year. I don't know if the team will be sold at all. I don't know if the new owners will be good owners, provided the team is sold. I don't know if this team will actually make the playoffs in the near future or if it will be burned down and rebuilt. Poor attendance, lack of recent performance, team up for sale, questionably competitive now. I'd be surprised if the Twins even get the opportunity to talk to Sasaki.

Chris Williams (assuming the guy being talked about) is not under contract with the Twins. The Twins non-tendered him, he elected MiLB free agency and signed with the Mets.

It's obviously "Been" but yeah, didn't know if it was some trendy new word for a second... Martin has little valuable upside left from what I've seen. I'd have liked to see him play 2B more last year to see if he could handle the position at the MLB level because that seems his most likely path to playing time. Martin's lack of ability to square up balls results in poor exit velocities and minimal power projection, but he's serviceable at the plate due to his disicipline. Unfortunately, his defensive instincts leave quite a bit to be desired. I think Martin's likely ceiling is a 1 WAR utility guy.

Baldelli runs his team based on analytics, and I'm not sure why you're so obstinate about trying to fight that concept or is it just that "spreadsheet" is offensive now? If spreadsheet is now an offensive term, I can always add a trigger warning to my posts or perhaps I can use a less offensive term like "grid" or "table" "array" or "matrix" if you like? By the way, when is late season criticism of collapses allowed? Does Baldelli have to oversee 20 or 30 years of late season collapses until there are enough collapses which mirror each other before criticism can be levied?

No idea with this one. How is Mike Ford better than Yunior Severino? I just don't understand the appeal of this one at all, even on a MiLB contract. After Ford was cut by the Reds in May of last year he had to settle for a contract with the Yokohama Bay Stars, and he couldn't even stay on their top level club. First, Ford spent most of his season in the Eastern League (which is basically MiLB for Japan). In Japanese MiLB play, Ford started off at the top level Bay Stars in the Central League where he put together a short and dreadful .200/.273/.350 OPS .623 performance. After that, he was demoted to the Eastern League where he was still very weak (ranked 9th on the team for players with 100+ PA) with a .211/.281/.429 OPS .709 output. Why was this signing made? Even as MiLB depth, there have to be better options out there.

I can't say if Baldelli is a lame duck manager. If a new owner buys the team, probably. If the Pohlads don't complete a sale, Baldelli is probably back.

This reads like hubris for a team which missed the playoffs by a few games. If Baldelli's often perplexing decisions couldn't have possibly cost the Twins the playoffs, then the Twins should trade him to another team who wants him for cost savings because he adds zero value. In fact, why even employ a traditional baseball manager? Just have an entry level data analyst at $50k a year making calls based on a printed spreadsheet. I don't see the advantage in late season collapses to teach players something when they happen every other year so somebody needs to clue me in on that. The Twins were in 1st place on Sept 4th in 2022 only to fail to make the playoffs. The Twins were in WC#2 with a 95% chance of making the playoffs on Sept 4th in 2024 only to fail again. If it was so valuable to have a last minute collapse to the season, wouldn't 2022 have taught the Twins something?

Sure, it's as easy as the Twins pushing to a $150MM payroll. I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins do that, but I just don't see it happening. Falvey still hasn't moved ill-advised expenditure pieces like Paddack or Vazquez. That's low hanging fruit in terms of adding a bat which could help the team, but given Falvey's failures the past few years at moving assets he was expected to part with, this isn't surprising.

I'm not surprised. I was responding to the comment by @JD-TWINS who was expecting positive regression due to Castro's drop off from 2.7 WAR in 2023 to 1.6 WAR he was apparently attributing to an OPS change.

It's a 1 year MLB deal, but I haven't seen the reports on the details yet. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/cubs-sign-caleb-thielbar.html

There might be something to the skill or the metric in general. Catcher physical dimensions matter a lot. Taller catchers generally find it easier to get high strikes called and shorter catchers generally find it easier to get low strikes called when I was evaluating trends in the metric. Even if it's just body type resulting in more or less favorable strike calls, it's still valuable, but then there is the pitcher staff and umpire biases towards pitcher reputation. Great pitchers get better calls. Just like great hitters often get better calls. The biggest problem I have with catcher framing is it is not stable at all, and the values assigned have enormous impact. Most catchers bounce around in terms of value. J.T. Realmuto is an example: -11, +3, +5, +7, +3, +4, 0, -13, -3. So he started off horrible, then became one of the best, then became horrible, then became below average. Christian Vazquez has a similar pattern: +4, +3, +3, +12, +3, +0, +2, +3, +6. Where did that +12 come from? That's +1.2 WAR. Vazquez's +6 from last year was out of whack, too, considering his playing time. Brian McCann's career is all over the place as well. It's common to see framing value make wild changes when a catcher changes teams. Like Kurt Suzuki. He apparently forgot everything he knew about framing the moment he left Minnesota. It makes me suspect the pitchers have a much more substantial impact than the catcher. Jason Castro. Similar story. Terrible, then great when Houston decided he should be good at it, then he tanked back down with Minnesota... Look at Buster Posey. Fangraphs' WAR = 57.6. Posey enjoyed a +31 Statcast framing runs in 2016 (first year); that's 3.1 WAR just in framing. Looking at the other framing runs source, Posey enjoyed +13 WAR in framing over his career. That's why Posey is 45 bWAR and 58 fWAR. So framing isn't stable and it has an enormous impact on perceived value, but I don't believe the catcher's skill usually has much to do with it.

How about fans just do what they want rather than align themselves with some sort of cause? The Twins are rolling a payroll which currently ranks 16th in MLB, and Spotrac has them projected at $138MM right now. Most people expect the Twins will cut that down to $130MM. If people aren't happy if the Twins aren't top 10 in payroll, I suggest becoming fans of other teams because the Twins aren't going to hang out up in that $200MM+ arena; new owners or not. MSP cannot reasonably support that level of expenditure. Or you could go root for teams who are actually cheap so the complaining about payroll actually holds water... 2024 $62MM Athletics $84MM Pirates $89MM Rays $96MM Marlins $96MM Tigers 2023 $62MM Athletics $68MM Orioles $74MM Pirates $74MM Rays $89MM Guardians $93MM Nationals $95MM Reds $95MM Royals The Twins haven't run a payroll under $97MM in the last 10 years. I canceled my seasons because of the value proposition and the bait-n-switch I felt at the end of 2023, but I see no merit in your proposal.

Castro had a nearly identical bat in 2024 as he had in 2023. Castro put together 2.5 fWAR in 2023 and 3.1 fWAR in 2024. bWAR is broken for most positions IMHO.

For the folks wanting to hand the backup catcher job to Mickey Gasper... that's a big leap. Gasper has been able to catch about 15%-20% of base runners at AA/AAA so maybe 10-15% at the MLB level? He's struggled with that skill, and Gasper has allowed quite a few passed balls. Jeffers' MiLB career was 13 passed balls in 1050 innings, while Gasper has allowed 18 passed balls in 920 innings. The Yankees deployed Gasper as a utility player with the ability to catch, and the moment a catching prospect was promoted to Gasper's level, Gasper gave up his catcher duties to the prospect. Gasper's also been very passive at the plate, swinging at less than 60% of strikes at AAA (only 33% of strikes at the MLB level in SSSS). That won't fly at the MLB level. Gasper needs some consistent playing time at catcher before I'd really want to rely on him, and the Twins have essentially nothing in the minors in case of emergency.

Fangraphs uses the unstable pitch framing metric which creates wild swings in catcher value. If we average things between bWAR and fWAR... Vazquez +0.3 avg WAR in 98 games per year McCann +0.5 avg WAR in 63 games per year McCann is the better player by a fair margin. Of course, I'd rather use bWAR for catchers because I dislike "catcher framing" as I don't think it's a valid metric.

I don't know as it's surprising Burnes got that huge contract given his history, but I sure wouldn't have been interested in giving Burnes that kind of contract. From fastball velo, to contact rates, K rates, and some other batted ball metrics, there are reasons to be concerned about how Burnes is going to age now that he's entering his age 30 season. The contract does include $60MM in deferrals so that helps a ton in terms of annual cost. Obviously, pretty much everybody is stunned it was the Diamondbacks who made the deal, but it seems like Burnes really valued living where he has his home. Life balance made it all work out. Zac Gallen's status has to be much more available now given Arizona's payroll expectations, but the proposal I made to trade Lopez for Gallen is likely more difficult because of the Diamondbacks being less likely to be open to adding payroll, and AZ now having their ace under contract long term. I suppose Burnes could opt out after 2025, but that seems like he'd have to excel pretty hard in the desert to pull off an obvious bonus in value.

Joe Ryan is a bargain. Bailey Ober is a bargain. David Festa is a bargain. Simeon Woods Richardson is a bargain. If Pablo Lopez wasn't a bargain compared to free agent deals, the front office would have quite a bit of egg on their face. Lopez was extended while he was still under team control for 2 years, and he had never had a big payday because he was signed as an international free agent with a $280k bonus way, way back in 2012. The Twins had a huge amount of leverage in negotiations.

Possibly. The Pohlad family owns a lot of commercial property, and commercial property got an absolute thrashing in terms of value post-COVID. The family has been working to diversify their holdings, but it's not like these big commercial properties are liquid right now. Selling the Twins would give them lots of liquidity they need to be flexible in growing business value. https://tcbmag.com/tcbs-2022-people-of-the-year/