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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I think we've seen what happens when Falvey needs to make trades before. He overplays his hand and runs out of legitimate partners late in the offseason. Ryan is a bit special in regard to that philosophy since there are always going to be interested partners for a pitcher like Ryan. Bottom line, if you believe in the pitching pipeline. Whether it's Bradly, Abel, Zebby, SWR, etc taking that step forward, Ryan is absolutely expendible. Lopez brings back dramatically less coming off a tough year of injuries with a $22MM annual paycheck coming. From what I've seen, teams do not value Ryan as highly as Falvey. Though Ryan carries a +54 trade value in BaseballTradeValues, clubs have apparently been hesitatant to give up their truly premium assets. Those +40 type players as the headliner. I think that reflects the league-wide view Ryan is not an ace, he's a playoff caliber starter but not the guy you want leading a rotation. But Falvey won't. Falvey won't put his money where his mouth is.
  2. bean5302
    Tait and Soto have a 0% chance of playing at the MLB level this year so they can be ignored regardless of rank. Jenkins making the roster in the first 2 weeks would be stunning, but I suppose there is some scenario where it could happen, but Falvey has logjammed corner outfielders about 17 deep behind 1 WAR ceiling guys. Rodriguez and Prielipp both have a path to opening day. Emma, especially, given the Twins will be burning his 3rd option before the end of April before a single plate appearance in the big show if Emma isn't on the 26 man before then. It speaks volumes about Emma if the Twins are okay burning his 3rd option like that. Prielipp's path is Falvey getting his way by putting Prielipp in the bullpen, though we already have 1 guaranted lefty (Rogers) and a likely guy (Funderburk). If Prielipp struggles to get through multiple innings or against lefties, I think Falvey's ego will win the day over Zoll's desires to continue Prielipp's path as a starter.
  3. bean5302
    So he went from abominable to just awful? In all seriousness, Larnach didn't have enough sample size in 2024 to generate a stable number. wRC+ 71 is still unplayable for a low value defensive position.
  4. bean5302
    It's necessary to break out Brooks Lee as a left handed hitter and as a right handed hitter. Career lines RHB = .218/.274/.351 OPS .625 wRC+ 72. ISO .134, 7.1% BB, 15.1% K. .231 BABIP LHB = .261/.291/.367 OPS .658 wRC+ 82. ISO .106, 3.5% BB, 20.0% K .304 BABIP As a lefty, Lee is a slap singles ground ball hitter with no control of the strike zone. As a righty, Lee has a better grasp of the strike zone, and he becomes a dead pull hitter with a better ratio of fly balls and a little more pop. Both ways, he generates little in the way of hard contact, and he's a pretty easy strikeout of pitchers stay inside and low from either side of the plate, but even if they leave pitches out over the plate when Lee is batting left, he's not going to do any damage even if he does make contact. He's the last couple years' version of Luis Arraez, but with 3-4x the K rate. His 2025 approach and results looked pretty much just like his 2024 debut. There have probably been about 5 articles about Brooks Lee and whether or not he can improve over the offseason. I think Lee's ceiling is probably a close to league average bat. Maybe .260/.310/.410 OPS .720-ish type of hitter at best? I will say the Twins have shown a remarkable level of patience with Lee. Dramatically more than any other young player I can recall recently.
  5. bean5302
    It's true Liam Hendriks (2007) we DFA'd back in 2013. Lewis Thorpe (2013), but arm injuries seemed to really derail him.
  6. bean5302
    He's no faster than Wallner was a couple years ago, and his weak arm led to teams really being aggressive on him last year where he got some opportunities to push up his defensive stats through getting some easy outs on attempted advances. Martin doesn't get a good reaction or jump, but he does have enough raw speed to make up for his poor instincts. Expecting more than average defense from him feels optimistic, but certainly more ceiling than a guy like Larnach.
  7. bean5302
    The Twins were projected to win the division at this time last year, too. There's a big difference between projections and reality at this time of year. There are times when teams take major steps forward with a young core. We saw that between 2015-2017 where the team nearly made the playoffs, flopped and rebounded to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. There are also a lot more times when a team is just cooked like the 2011 team where it took years and years to rebound. Tom Pohlad said he wasn't a partial commitment kind of guy, but that is exactly what fans are used to and EXACTLY what we're getting. So yeah, the owners and front office could choose to screw the fans like they are doing. It might work out or it might not. But if they're looking to get fans to invest in the team, status quo isn't the right course. They're lying to us.
  8. bean5302
    I think people are getting awfully excited about Martin despite more history of being bad than being good at the MLB level. Martin was basically the exact same guy in 2025 that he was in 2024 at the plate, just with better results. 2024 vs 2025 18.6% vs 18.6% O-Swing rate 68.7% vs 58.7% Z-Swing rate (a sub-60% Z-Swing rate is terrible IMHO) 26.6% vs. 25.2% Line drive rate 42.4% vs. 50.4% Ground ball rate 31.0% vs. 24.4% Fly ball rate 87.2mph vs. 86.2mph Avg. Exit Velo (not good) 1.1% vs. 5.5% Barrel rate (still below average) 33.5% vs. 38.5% Hard hit. I just don't see it. The increased walk rate doesn't make sense given the fact Martin didn't really change his approach for swinging at pitches out of the zone or anything. His approach of waiting for mistake pitches (the very low Z-swing rate) reminds me of Eddie Julien.
  9. bean5302
    Sure. If MLB had 50 roster spots, Larnach would make sense as a part-time (mostly DH) left fielder to platoon against RHP. wRC+ 110 is honestly just a little better than average. It's not like Larnach raked at a wRC+ 150 rate or something which could offset his poor hitting against lefties. The way this roster is constructed means several players make no sense together, and Larnach is one of those. He's a high floor player, but with an extremely low ceiling.
  10. bean5302
    Arbitration is about precedent. If Skubal wins, he'll be setting a precedent that arbitration should more heavily weigh a player's free agency value (which it should). Also, I'd be utterly shocked if the next CBA didn't include more provisions to make arbitration more fair for players in the future. Right now, arbitration salary growth has been based almost solely on the initial and subsequent year arbitration values which prevents players from earning what they are worth if they start low. Skubals ruling could turn that entire concept on it's head for a lot of players who are arb-3. Not just for a back to back Cy Young winner. But only for 2026-2027 arbitration, if there's not a strike.
  11. bean5302
    I mean, to be fair, Kepler, Sano, Polanco were in the article, haha
  12. bean5302
    The mutual option's functionality is going to depend on the outcome of Tarik Skubal's arbitration ruling. If Skubal is successful, it will likely re-build the entire arbitration model for pitchers in future years becuase it will be precident setting.
  13. bean5302
    Why would the team be focused on raising the floor? The floor isn't the problem. Neither is the ceiling. The problem is the lack of middle ground. The meat of good teams haspPlayers the team can count on to produce that solid 2 WAR contribution as a position player. They're not flashy MVP guys, they're the bread and butter of a playoff caliber team. The floor of this team is 100 losses. The ceiling is 92-ish wins. Getting some AAAA cast offs or 1 WAR guys to get the Twins to a 95 loss team floor while simultaneously reigning in the ceiling to 87 wins isn't of any value.
  14. bean5302
    Wilson Ramos 2004 Danny Santana 2007 Oswaldo Arcia 2007 Fernando Romero 2011 Luis Arraez 2014 Some other names through history who were international signings by the Twins.
  15. bean5302
    Anybody on the team can switch hit (stand in the other batter's box) just as well as anybody on the team has positional flexibility (where we deploy players into positions they can't cover). I do not care if a guy hits left or right. I don't care about platoon advantages in theory. I care about production in reality.
  16. bean5302
    Brooks Lee was #8, and he's happy to play wherever. The target of his ire is Lewis, who played 2B when he was told he was playing 2B. I mean, I can't see why a player wouldn't be excited for the opportunity to be forced to learn a new position during a playoff chase while playing injured and in a slump, right? Also, voicing concern when asked for an opinion = outright refusal around these parts.
  17. bean5302
    git gud was my thought pattern. Veterans are often cited as having some sort of veteran capability to teach players how to be better, but I've rarely seen any long term evidence of that. Even truly talented guys like Cruz aren't going to be able to sprinkle magic fairy dust on players to add talent, but the very same arguments are made for any and all veteran signings. It's like the tech definition of an expert shared with me years ago. Apparently "expert" means somebody who lives more than 500 miles away.
  18. bean5302
    You suggested Rooker and Sabato were comparable because somebody else would have treated them the same. Brent Rooker has apparently become the new David Ortiz around these parts. The cautionary tale who is used by fans to justify hanging on to any MiLB roster filler well past prospect age regardless of how little similarity exists. Sabato will be considered 27 for this baseball season.
  19. bean5302
    He's too close to free agency to get a big bargain on him like you're suggesting. The Twins extended Pablo Lopez for 4yrs and $73.5MM in a similar situation (though Lopez had more reason to take the deal because he'd be a free agent again at 31). Your numbers would drive a rift into the relationship and be seen as an absolute insult.
  20. bean5302
    Rogers being older and experienced isn't going to make any difference in my opinion. Justin Topa's 35 this year. Sands and Funderburk have several years of MLB experience. The grizzled veteran is another one of those "intangibles" usually used to justify bad veteran players' existence on the roster. We didn't see big growth when Joey Gallow was here. Nelson Cruz wasn't able to make Miguel Sano GG. Vazquez couldn't teach Ryan Jeffers how to be a good defensive catcher. There is no value in the grizzled veteran IMHO. We have coaches. There are plenty of veteran players who've been there on the team.
  21. bean5302
    The "cheap Pohlads" used the money from not extending Santana to extend Morneau, Nathan, Cuddyer and later Mauer. Santana was clear. He wanted the biggest contract a pitcher had ever received, and he got it. Sure, he deserved it, but the Twins weren't going to match that. The Mets didn't over use Santana, either. Santana averaged similar or fewer inning per start with the Mets than he did with the Twins, and the Mets gave him similar pitch counts to Minnesota. Santana broke down, and whenever Sananta had issues, the Mets shut his season down early to get him treated. If you're talking about the one game they let Santana go 134 pitches in the FIFTH year of his contract for the Mets' first no-hitter in club history, that's really digging.
  22. bean5302
    Comparing a guy who is now 27 and has struggled mightily and consistently in the high minors for 4 consecutive years except for a 165 PA sample size in AA to Brent Rooker isn't reasonable. Rooker destroyed AAA. Sabato couldn't hold his own there last year. Rooker made MLB in his 4th season despite that being in 2020. He had a .931 OPS with 20 HR in 267 PA in AAA at age 26. Sabato had a .741 OPS (wRC+ 86) with 14 HR in 264 PA at age 26. Sabato is a non-prospect and it's pretty ridiculous hearing his name as a potential contributor at this point. I'm pretty surprised the Twins haven't already released him.
  23. bean5302
    Zoll wants Prielipp in the rotation. Falvey has wanted him in the 'pen. What I took away from the discussion is the Twins will likely make a call on his direction after watching him in Spring Training.
  24. bean5302
    If I were to guess... it's because Falvey wants to try and salvage his job and he's convinced ownership there's talent on the roster which can carry the team back into the playoffs and new minority ownership gave the green light to keeping status quo with a year of getting familiar with and evaluating the Twins' operations. If the Twins were to have quickly sold to a new owner, I think it's extremely likely Falvey would have been fired and replaced this offseason. Since the ownership debacle dragged well into the offseason before the Twins pivoted, there may not have been enough time to dedicate to the sale plus a new GM/President search especially given the fake termination of St. Peter. Personally, I think the Twins should have fired Falvey after the trade deadline last year. No reason left to keep him at that point.
  25. bean5302
    Culpepper is #2 right now for me, but a distant #2. For me, grading prospects is about ceiling, floor and projectability. It's very difficult to project low minors players who are not absolutely dominant because there are so many single flaws which can be exposed. I'm not a pro scout so I have to lean heavily on scouting reports which are fraught with personal biases on how a player looks or what big time MLB player a prospect resembles in the mind of the scout. Lots of excitment around Gonzalez. Gabriel Gonzalez has a low ceiling in my opinion. He's not going to be a plus defender in the corners, he doesn't take walks so his OBP is capped, and he isn't going to be a plus power hitter. I love what he did last year to re-establish his status as a prospect worth note after a poor end to 2023 and an unimpressive 2024 season, but wRC+ 120 at AAA is league average at the MLB level (which is right where projection models place him wRC+ 89 to 100). I kind of view Gonzalez as mid-career Eddie Rosario right now. Gonzalez needs to improve his plate discipline dramatically or his speed/defense to raise his ceiling to be considered a top prospect IMHO.
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