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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Love seeing the Twins beat the Yankees in New York :D
  2. bean5302
    Average to above average speed and a cannon for an arm. He has all the physical tools he needs. Keep in mind, I'm a fan of Wallner's, and I think he could be good.
  3. bean5302
    That's pretty presumptuous, indeed. In fact, I'd say it's downright unreasonable, but lets presume all three players have a bat that plays at the MLB level and look at his from a pure defensive alignment perspective. That makes things really easy. Lee plays 2B, Culpepper plays 3B and Houston plays SS. Lee is an unplayable SS, and he's not going to be a good 3B with a weak arm. He's not rangy so he's not well suited to 2B, either, but it's going to be the position he's best suited to play. Culpepper is probably an average-ish SS, maybe a tick below, but he should be a plus 3B with a strong arm. Houston is likely an elite SS.
  4. bean5302
    SWR cleared waivers. Nobody wanted him.
  5. bean5302
    It all depends on what you think a #3 or #4 or #5 starter actually is. If you think a #5 starter is a Chris Paddack who isn't worth a roster spot, but keeps getting trotted out to the mound by an incompetent front office trying to wipe the egg off their face, then you're right. I'm talking about guys you actually want on the mound, not guys you play because you have to. For relievers from 2023-2025 who pitched 140+ innings (98 total relievers), adjusted for 60 innings 1 averaged 1.9 fWAR or higher 3 averaged 1.7 fWAR or higher 7 averaged 1.5 fWAR or higher 17 averaged 1.2 fWAR or higher 28 averaged 1.0 fWAR or higher BaseballTradeValues has gotten pretty good with ballparking trade value. (Expected WAR) * $8.0MM - (Expected SalaryMM) = Surplus Value There's a little wiggle room on the 8.00 factor, but the end result doesn't vary a lot since relievers don't generate a lot of WAR.
  6. bean5302
    The Twins are among the worst teams in baseball when it comes to Right Field production this year. Wallner's been raking since his first 5 ice cold games over in St. Paul He owns a 25.8% K rate in AAA. His bat is his calling card, and he's only had a handful of games with a cumulative OPS under 1.000 since May 21st. A big problem is he hasn't been willing to work on his defensive value, and it's been so bad he's an obvious burden on the team if his bat isn't hot. It's clear the Twins consider Wallner MiLB roster filler at this point, but it's equally clear this front office is cowardly after having screwed up so many times so they're unwilling to move Wallner as well.
  7. bean5302
    Houston is going to have a heck of a test at AA, but the defense is almost certainly going to play well. He could be a league average hitter and still produce 3 WAR. We should know more by the end of August as his plate appearances hit 150+ if he remains healthy.
  8. bean5302
    I do, which is how I also know 7.1 innings doesn't mean anything.
  9. bean5302
    Except how to hit. It'd be nice if he could hit. It'd also be nice if he could prove he's got more than a 5-10 game hot streak between injuries from running full speed and shoulder checking walls and stuff.
  10. bean5302
    YEAH!!!! Keep your facts and logic to yourself, @DJL44!
  11. bean5302
    Strikeout Pathetic ground out Strikeout Soft line out Home run (hung two sliders middle-middle back to back) Double (not a terrible pitch fastball) Horrible, horrible walk. Hard single (good pitch, and good sequence) Double (again, not a bad pitch at all) Strikeout High fly out At bat by at bat looked good to start. He left back to back sliders middle-middle on the HR and next at bat gave up a hit on a first pitch fastball which caught a bit too much of the plate, but I don't think it was a bad first pitch. Honestly, I think he pitched poorly to 2 hitters. Lots of bad luck for the rest.
  12. bean5302
    Starting as a reliever reduces experience by 70% which makes learning that much harder. Players start as relievers if they cannot be effective starters. MLB is not for learning how to pitch. That's why Rule 5 guys almost never stick. MLB is for guys who've already figured out their stuff, but need to learn what stuff they have works best against big leaguers, and to polish command. More innings, more pitches = more experience.
  13. bean5302
    He's not having problems throwing strikes. 2.86 BB/9 is fine. 67% strike rate with a 50.1% zone rate in AAA. He's excellent on the strike rate (because of whiffs/fouls on balls) and good enough on the zone rate.
  14. bean5302
    Nobody expected Varland to blossom into this kind of production. He projected like a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA unspectacular reliever with the Twins. Varland, for years, gave up tons of very hard contact. Batters tee'd off with high barrel rates, squared up rates and hard hit rates. Now, he has low exit velocities, and he's baffling hitters by not allowing barrels with huge gains in command and better stuff by dropping bad performing pitches. The explosion of performance puts a lot of heat on the front office and pitching coaches, though. Varland ditched his sinker, brought back a much improved changeup and he's dominated. I've long felt the new front office was "meet the new boss, same as the old boss!" in terms of forcing players to fit into the mold of productivity the front office believes in at the team level. Will Varland be able to keep this up? Yeah. It looks like it (though he won't maintain the sub 1.00 ERA) Also... Brent Headrick. He's been great for the Yankees. I thought Headrick would struggle to provide any value out of the bullpen, but he's looking very solid. Anyway, as good as Varland has become, Rojas is still worth a lot more if he can lock down a rotation spot. If the Twins' front office had done their job and shored up the bullpen like they absolutely needed to, there would be a whole lot less frustration around here.
  15. bean5302
    John Lackey, catcher for 29 teams. C, RP, 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF for the Minnesota Twins. Maybe a little SS, CF, bat boy and clubhouse janitor mixed in... for the versatility!
  16. bean5302
    A failed starter is a pitcher who is either pitching so poorly in the rotation they're hurting their team's chances at winning without expectations there's much untapped growth or a pitcher who has reached the point of call-up and they don't appear likely to be able to provide quality service in the rotation so they're moved to the bullpen. Morris certainly wasn't doing a lot to make his case as a starter during his time in AAA. His peripherals and expected metrics looked uninspiring while putting up numbers which often looked a lot like Randy Dobnak. Morris pitching out of the pen has allowed his K rate to come up, but once the scouting reports get out on him, I wonder if that will stick.
  17. bean5302
    Correction, Bell will go hot for a month at random times.
  18. bean5302
    Rojas should be in the rotation.
  19. bean5302
    #1 - 5.0 WAR #2 - 4.0 WAR #3 - 3.0 WAR #4 - 2.0 WAR #5 - 1.5 WAR Elite RP - 1.75 WAR Great RP - 1.25 WAR Relievers are highly volatile. Consistently hitting 2.0 WAR is virtually unheard of, though it has happened for like the very pinnacle of relievers in all of baseball on occasion. The realistic ceiling for Rojas' value out of the pen is equivalent to a #5 starter. For whatever reason, a seemingly strange number of people on this site look at every single starting pitching prospect the Twins have and work diligently on arguments on how to convert them to a bullpen arm which will deliver minimal value.
  20. bean5302
    The now 28 year old Matt Canterino is probably done. His surgery in March of 2025 has a typical 12 month recovery timeline. Nick Paparesta said, at the time, Canterino would likely be a little longer because of how hard he throws and his injury history so when he wasn't ready for Spring Training, that was honestly expected. Now, though, it's July. It was expected Canterino would be ramping up by May or June. He's past expected at this point and no signs of him. Canterino also had some major red flags in his last significant playing time in AA. He was walking 6 hitters per 9 innings. His xFIP there was 4.61 despite the hype around the 13.14 K/9 and the sparkly 1.83 ERA he had.
  21. bean5302
    Gonzalez is a low-ranking prospect at this point. He can't play defense and he's really struggling at the plate. He'd already fallen far down the Twins prospect lists before last year's rebound campaign, but he's simply not making good contact. Good players rarely have multiple year hiccups. Before we get into the "oh, he's only 22!!!!" stuff, he's an 6 year MiLB veteran who had to be added to the 40 man to protect him from the Rule 5, and he's burning options. It's nothing like a 20 year old drafted out of college in year 2 at AAA. Emma can't stay on the field with an approach which doesn't obviously translate to the MLB level, and the Twins agree having burned all 3 options without a single game in the big show. The Twins aren't building around that, though he certainly could have a breakthrough. I think he's either going to be very good or unplayable. Roden has no business in AAA anymore. He should be playing every day at the MLB level, but again, you're talking about a guy who hasn't forced his way into MLB playing time yet at age 26 so betting on him is a little iffy. Wallner is clearly far down the depth chart. He's been raking for months in AAA, but the Twins have apparently seen enough. Jenkins is definitely in the long term plans, though. That's it.
  22. bean5302
    Seems pretty generous given Jenkins' often slow starts, quick promotions after short bursts of raking, and his relatively pedestrian results at AAA. Jenkins is probably better than absolute replacement level as a starting CF right now if he's got as much or more speed than advertised, but do the Twins want to start his clock burning time as a replacement+ player before he gets more experience and is potentially worth the starting job? As a corner OF, he might be able to duplicate a Kepler-like performance with a close to league average bat putting together 2 WAR campaigns with defense.
  23. bean5302
    Luck and SSS does not equal talent.
  24. bean5302
    Duran and Varland do not add 5 wins this year to the Twins to put them into a precarious first place in the division. The Twins have blown 11 saves so far (16th in MLB). The Twins relievers have pitched 317.0 innings, Duran and Varland combined have 70 IP so less than 25% of all innings the Twins relievers have pitched. Meaning other Twins relievers (who are bad) still have to cover 247 innings. Duran and Varland in the bullpen probably makes the Twins viable as a potential back end playoff team auto-scheduled for a quick exit. I guess I don't care if the Twins are a 1 and done playoff team. Been there. Done that for 20 years now.
  25. bean5302
    Why? There is nothing to suggest a now 27year old Austin Martin has some hidden breakthrough coming. After 500 PA in AAA which show him projecting as a pretty league average bat, and 700 PA at the MLB level confirming that. 1200 PA with the same basic outcome. Decent eye, lots of contact, no power, can't play a defense outside corner OF (or maybe 2B which the Twins abandoned).
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