bean5302

RE: Living wage. Cut all the signing bonus slot values to $0 and cap their signing bonus to $10k and pay a living wage. I'm cool with that or modifying the signing bonus to having a floor of $142,000. I'm also okay with just making a signing bonus floor for rounds 11+ of something like $40k. I'm also okay with ending round 11+ drafting. Tyler Jay's signing bonus was $3.8MM. Rob Refsnyder was a 5th round pick and his signing bonus was $205,900 in 2012. Even Mitch Garver, a 9th rounder received an (under-slot) $40K signing bonus in 2013 more than offsets your living wage MiLB career calculation. Players who are going to make the big leagues as contributors are in round 1-10 and have already been compensated more than enough to offset cost of living. The rest are chasing their lottery tickets and are long shots to make MLB for a cup of coffee, let alone any substantial career and are chasing their dreams like lottery tickets, essentially working as apprentices.

Canterino going back to the IL with an elbow sprain really does scream out TJ to me. Glad to see Dobnak back on the mound. It has to feel good to pitch competitively again and see the big show light at the end of the tunnel! Nice to see Miranda raking again tonight. I share the sentiment he's been awesome this year, but he's actually been pretty pedestrian overall this month. .279/.347/.426 OPS .773 in 16 games coming into tonight. SSS, but it was extra bewildering when Donaldson was hurt and Miranda was simply on fire.

I don't know who looks at ages alone, but ages are important when evaluating prospect potential because elite players generally develop quickly. While Twins fans may view 24 as young, it's not. Elite pitcher take 1-3 years to make MLB. That's age 20-23, generally. Joe Ryan, even having missed a year, is still older than a typical elite pitching prospect... and he was traded by a team with renown for developing starting pitching and promoting their prospects to MLB aggressively for a rental DH so tempering expectations is reasonable. That said, I like Ryan a lot. His performance has been very impressive and I think he will be a good piece in the Twins' starting rotation.

In regard to Buxton... let's say the Twins immediately put him into MLB action and Buxton flails away for the first week until he gets up to speed. It drops his performance on the season or he aggravates his knuckle and the Twins have to put him back on the IL. The Twins are pointing at that performance in arbitration. It just doesn't look good to potentially make your players look bad.

I'm not frustrated with the Twins playing poorly this year. I like the opportunity it creates to accelerate young talent. Seeing young players full of potential tear up the diamond is a lot of fun for me. You're seriously underestimating the White Sox and Tigers right now. They are not going to be pushovers next year. The White Sox are already a potential juggernaut with a payroll of $162MM this year and they'll probably be higher next year. The Tigers have played over .500 ball since early May and they're going to have an easy $65MM of money earmarked for free agency with probable room for salary expansion well above $150MM, not to mention a reloaded farm system. The Royals are also looking down on the Twins in the standings with tons of elite farm talent and, again, just as much free agency money room as the Twins. It's worth noting no team in the AL Central has a lower max payroll in the past decade than the Twins. Detroit, Chicago, Kansas City and Cleveland have all outspent the Twins when it came down to making runs when their windows were open. Yes. The Twins can compete next year. They can be excellent if they sign 2 very good pitchers, a very good shortstop and get a couple of their young players to turn a corner. They won't, and that's okay. This thread implied the Twins can sign one player to turn the tide. One player is not enough. If you're building a team, you sign a single high end free agent to complete a roster after you have an established and proven core of young players. The Twins do not have this. 1B, SS, LF, DH, SP1, SP2, SP4, SP5, and 3/4 of a bullpen are unproven or proven to be under par right now. I do expect the Twins to make signings in free agency. I called Cueto, Pineda as pitchers and Simmons' return at SS. I think the Twins are going to focus on 2023+ and give their players another year of development. Lewis, Martin, Woods-Richardson, Winder, Balazovic and several others should have arrived or shown a much better picture of who they are. I haven't missed what you think the point is. Can a team sign an elite talent with the hopes their efforts are something they'll be able to build around in 2 years? Sure, but if the graduating talent doesn't move the needle, all that team has done is waste money which is why basically no teams ever do this. All the discussions on how the Twins could sign a long term elite free agent this year in the hopes they have a competitive roster with young talent in 1-2 more years is moot anyway. The Twins have never signed a free agent to more than 4 years in franchise history and elite talent you would rely upon for more than a couple years of production almost always command 5+ years in this market, but the Twins' ownership has an extreme aversion to long contracts.

The Twins are on pace to finish this season 70-92. They play 18 of their last 37 games against AL East teams fighting to make the playoffs. They only have 1 non-divisional team under .500 on the schedule. The Twins do not have Berrios or Cruz on the team next year. Replacing them, if the Twins don't go to free agency will be Joe Ryan and Brent Rooker. If the Twins are going to return in 2022 with all guys who are currently under team control, the expectation they're not losing 90 games is completely irrational to me.

I really have no idea on this. The Rays looked like they were keeping Ryan at 75-80 pitches max this season and Ryan threw 70-74 pitches per start in the Olympics. The Saints gave him the quick hook after 67 pitches and 4 dominant innings. Limiting his pitches a bit would make sure he's fresh for a call up, but there are plenty of players in the minors who've played excellently and haven't been called up. I think it makes a great deal of sense to have Joe Ryan up for his next available start at the MLB level. I know a lot of people don't think 1-1/2 months makes a big difference in Joe Ryan's development, but I think it could. It's not 1-1/2 months. It's the active game time, plus the offseason. Seeing how Ryan's offerings look against MLB hitters can more clearly show weaknesses in Ryans game. I think we've all seen players who get a brief time at the MLB level and learn something about what works in their game and what doesn't. If Ryan comes up right away, he could get 7 starts at the MLB level. I voted September because I think the Twins are going to try and manipulate his service time.

We have different opinions on the subject.

Nobody has a clue what this front office is doing at this point and it doesn't look like they have a clue, either. At least it puts everybody in the same boat.

Yeah, having him go back out there for the 5th when he was already at 98 pitches already probably wasn't expected. I suppose he did turn in an 11 pitch inning. Despite not giving up any runs, he still hit one batter wasn't even hitt 89mph on his fastball.

The post was about his ceiling. If you believe Arraez's absolute ceiling is what he's already shown as a spot starting utility infielder at ages 22-24 where he's already, consistently, generating a rate of 4-5 WAR per full season, you're welcome to believe that. 60 WAR gets you into the HoF. You can do the math on how good Arraez has been.

I have got to take more time reading baseball reference's lines. Age 26 season in 2019 threw me off as I was pulling data. I messed up the age on Simeon overstating his age the other day, too. Syndergaard' s season K rate was 9.20 K/9. I included his July 30th start. (7/30-9/30), though any date chosen is a bit arbitrary. I could have used the ASG break forward 9.74 K/9 or my choice 7/30 forward at 9.63 K/9 just as you used your sample which started with 2 of the worst strikeout games he had all year.

My point that seems to be wildly confusing to people: 74-86 with a single signing of a shortstop isn't any different to me than 72-90. If the Twins don't address other areas of concern, like their rotation, they still look like the 4-5 finishers in the division.

I don't share your memory of Darvish being free of major concerns. His ask was $180MM He was projected to get at least $150MM despite them but all the major players stayed out of the bidding. Instead he got 6 years $126MM with unrealistic escalators to $150MM for ages 31-37. 2014 Darvish misses last 2 months with elbow inflammation 2015 Darvish declared healthy through batting practices and into Spring Training. Pitches 1 inning, sprains his UCL and undergoes TJ surgery a week later. 2016 Darvish returns 12 months after UCL surgery (very quickly) and pitches excellent, but is no longer pitching deep into games with regularity. 2017 Darvish, in his age 30 season sees a big drop off in K rate and a spike in HR rate. His ERA, and FIPs jump. He is traded to the Dodgers and pitches very poorly to start, and in his regular season time there, pitches even fewer innings making it through the 6th inning on 4 of 9 starts. Darvish then gets shelled in the playoffs leading to speculation he was in decline and/or hurt. Speculation on him tipping pitches emerged as well. Syndergaard's 6 week setback is a non-issue for me, and I'd believe just about everybody else. A 26 year old returning from TJ in 15 months is still pretty quick. YMMV on which peripherals you choose to value. I see Syndergaard pitched nearly 200 innings in 2019, saw an uptick in his K rate the last 2 months of the season along with the best walk rates of his career during the span and peripherals which suggested he was still excellent at age 26. As a GM, I'd sign Syndergaard at 5 / $125MM in a heartbeat if he shows good velocity and results in September this year. Of course, I similarly viewed Darvish largely as the victim of luck and I was furious about it when the Twins didn't sign him.

When what you have right now is likely a 72-90 team which is the 2022 Twins as it stands, signing one player is stupid. One player doesn't make a difference. All it does is spend money. Though, if the $100MM floor comes into play, the Twins are going to have to make some big signings not to be penalized.

The statements by the Twins and Yankees say it all in the playoffs. Yankees style statement: "We know they're a good team otherwise they wouldn't be in the playoffs, but if we just go out there and play our game, we're confident we're going to win. Honestly, anything short of a World Series victory for us is disappointing." Twins style statement: "You know, we're just enjoying another trip to the playoffs. That's why we play the game. These types of opportunities aren't guaranteed so we're really proud of what we've accomplished. We're going to go out there and try to give 100% and if we do that, we think we have a real good team and a good shot." It's the expectation of winning vs. the hope of winning. Totally different mindsets and I think the "Minnesota Nice" Twins get overwhelmed in the playoffs by a superior attitude and presence.

That's old Yankee Stadium. The new one isn't what I'd call beautiful, but definitely nicer.

I can understand where you're coming from. I present Yu Darvish. Which one would you rather have? Darvish (31) circa 2018 or Syndergaard (26) circa 2022? There are no real questions about Syndergaard's 2019 IMO. 3.38 xERA, 3.60 FIP. His "ERA" makes no sense.

Not so sure about the ceiling being so far off from Carew or Gwynn. I don't think Arraez will ever get as many plate appearances as those legends or have as long a career, but Arraez is young and his OPS+ is 10pts away from those guys' careers. Arraez just needs to commit to his conditioning to have a chance at staying healthy. If he does that, I think he's has a shot to be nearly as good as those greats. We're certainly not talking chasms here. Carew, Gwynn, Arraez over their first 3 seasons. Random order, but I can tell you Arraez isn't the lowest... .324/.386/.419 OPS .805 = OPS+ 122 .299/.346/.408 OPS .754 = OPS+ 115 .329/.382/.415 OPS .797 = OPS+ 125 I believe Mauer will get in, no doubts at this point. I was concerned, like everybody else, about his first base time and short career. Almost ever writer I've seen has also considered Mauer a HoF'er, but were all wondering about what other writers were going to do. Well, it seems like the vast majority of people feel the same way. They'd vote for Mauer, but most don't expect him to be first ballot.

There's nothing to suggest to me Arraez will be a poor fielder at 2B. Arraez's 2B RF/9 across the minors (when he was actually playing a steady position) was outstanding. Arraez has a good glove, he just doesn't have great range for the position, but he certainly has the tools to play 2B. As far as Arraez's knees, he's on record as stating it should be manable by him just increasing his lower body strength to take stress off them. I'd imagine weight management fits in there somewhere, too. We'll see.

So the Twins figured Kirilloff was fixed after 6 plate appearances in AAA? Yes, the Twins have arguments as to why Kirilloff was held down the exact number of days (16) which would ensure he was prevented from earning a full year of service in 2021 under MLB rules. Given the standard practice across all baseball is to manipulate your player service time in this fashion, the fact the Twins have committed far worse and blatent service time manipulation and have a reputation for for beating down their young players in arbitration years, it would be hard to argue the Twins didn't start Kirilloff in AAA 90%+ because of service time.

Probably. Kirilloff was called up the day after the threshold to qualify for a full season, but it's not like Buxton who was kept in the minors to end a season when he had already been playing to get an extra season after his rookie year. That said, Sano had just gotten hurt, Buxton was D2D and Rooker was hurt.

Arbitration is not a significant issue in player salaries, but it's critical to small market teams being able to compete. Right now, teams have anywhere between 5-6 years of team control. If players are graduating from the minors over a 3 year period, the window of contention is extremely narrow. Teams need arbitration to control enormous and unexpected increses in player salary... otherwise, again, teams wouldn't be able to afford to agree to arbitration values and the team would effectively lose it's team control anyway. I believe arbitration doesn't need to be as long as it is or maybe, even better, arbitration is 5 years and starts after the first year of MLB service time. Teams absolutely need control over players to build a competitive window and teams absolutely need a steady payroll and an ability to predict what's going to happen in regard to their players under team control.

Syndergaard becomes a free agent without a QO is about 1% right now. The only thing which would prevent it from happening if the Mets think they can sign him for less than the QO. Honestly, Syndergaard would have to get hurt or pitch terribly for any chance the Mets would risk it. It's more likely the Mets lock Syndergaard up long term before the end of the year to prevent him from hitting free agency in the next several years. Make no mistake, the Mets want Syndergaard on the roster 100% next year and they absolutely want to extend him.

The catcher tries to move his 250lb body with gear within 1/2 a second to change his stance and position in front of where he's guessing the ball will go. He does not know exactly where the ball will go and cannot physically make any adjustment after the ball hits the dirt. How hard is that to understand? I didn't put words in your mouth. I explained how unreasonable your expectations (and several others on the site) of human anatomy were.