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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I like your field of stuffed strawmen. Very rustic!
  2. bean5302
    San Diego is small market and considering exceeding the luxury tax this year. Kansas City and Baltimore had a payrolls of $153MM and $167MM in 2017. The Twins could spend, the ownership is just too risk averse.
  3. bean5302
    Probably depends on how much the Twins think of Miguel Sano and Brent Rooker. I'd expect the Twins to move Sano to DH and Kiriloff to 1B. Rooker will probably get a long look at DH and Sano will be used as PH/DH for the rest of the season. The Twins' offense is definitely going to be a lot less potent without Cruz, unfortunately.
  4. bean5302
    Mitch Garver is ranked 10th of 45 catchers in MLB with 250+ innings this year in wild pitches. Meaning 35 other catchers have allowed more wild pitches than Mitch Garver. Garver's ranking on wild pitches is consistently good and he has allowed fewer wild pitches relative to his peers than he has allowed passed balls (where he's about average). If you have data, please feel free to present it.
  5. bean5302
    You're free to find some statistics over the past couple years to suggest he's bad if you'd like to counter my argument with something other than your personal eye test. Based on what I've seen, you're not going to find much luck looking for the data to support your opinion in pitch framing, error rate, passed balls, wild pitches or caught stealing percentage. I've seen Garver make some pretty awful plays so I can understand where your opinion may have formed, but the assumption the rest of the starting catchers out there are better doesn't seem to be reflected in really any of the data over the past couple years.
  6. bean5302
    Among the 45 catchers in MLB with more than 250 innings at the position this year, Garver is 18th (better than average) in passed balls with 2. The median is 3 and the bottom 5 ranked catchers have all allowed at least 7 passed balls each. Among the same group of 45 catchers, Garver is ranked 10th (top quartile) with 12. The median is 17.5. The bottom 5 have all allowed at least 34. I've noticed bashing Garver's defense seems to be a pretty popular thing in the forums; however, the data doesn't support the hate. He's not the best catcher to ever put on gear, but he's shaped himself into a solid backstop.
  7. bean5302
    I think it's important to evaluate what contracts look like these days. "Ace" is a term I think most people feel should be used with elite pitchers in terms of single game value. Pitchers who routinely show ERAs in the 2s or very low 3s, "Aces" are in the 5+ years and $30MM+ AAV. For a young "ace" contract these days consider a few of these. 2013 = Felix Hernandez 7 years $175MM (AAV 25MM) 2013 = Justin Verlander 7-8 years $180MM-202MM (AAV 25-26MM) 2013 = Clayton Kershaw 7 years $210MM (AAV 30MM) 2014 = Jon Lester 6-7 years $155MM-170MM (AAV 24-26MM) 2015 = Zack Greincke 6 years $206MM (AAV 34MM) 2015 = Max Scherzer 7 years $210MM (AAV 30MM) 2018 = Yu Darvish 6 years $126MM (AAV 21MM) 2019 = DeGrom 5 years $138MM (AAV 28MM) 2020 = Stephen Strasburg 7 years $245MM (AAV 35MM) 2020 = Gerrit Cole 9 years $324MM (AAV 36MM) 5 years $125MM is nowhere near typical "ace" money. Then again, we really don't have a good idea what Berrios is asking in the first place, and we also have no clue what the Twins have been countering with. Berrios will probably bring 5 years and $125MM on the open market as a free agent. Signing now, before he becomes a free agent, transfers a fair bit of risk to the Twins and the expectation is extensions generally come with a bit of a discount built in for that reason. I'd think 5 years $115MM or 6 years $130MM would be reasonable. Anything over 5 years and $125MM feels foolhardy.
  8. bean5302
    Higher meaning more likely to contribute to the Twins winning a World Series on an annual basis. I believe players who are likely to generate higher fWAR and bWAR on an annual basis are more likely to contribute to a team's success. I'd wager you'd be correct in your assertion the National (and American) Leagues have valued perceived defensive contributions when choosing a shortstop for more cumulative years than the player performance at the plate over the past 100 years. I would be very surprised to see evidence backing that up over the past decade, though. I give you Pedro Florimon as a good example. Despite being an excellent defensive shortstop, he hasn't had a starting shortstop job in MLB since the Twins moved on from him after 2014. Florimon wasn't even a black hole at the plate owning a .732 OPS in his last 3 seasons at the MLB level (which ended in 2018). Right now, Florimon sits at San Diego's AAA affiliate while a poor defensive shortstop by the name of Fernando Tatis, Jr. is enjoying his first year of a 13 year $330MM contract on San Diego's MLB roster as a starter. Based on all accounts I've read, Simmons was not signed by Minnesota to be a defense only SS, btw. He has a career .267 average (since you used that statistic) and was expected to be a league average-ish bat for the Twins.
  9. bean5302
    There will be a lot of FA shortstops to choose from for 2022. I'd hope the Twins would aim a little higher than Simmons if they're looking to compete.
  10. bean5302
    Polanco's error rate continues to be pretty high and UZR paints his play in a pretty bad light. Defensive metrics usually get closer together through the full year so it'll be interesting to see how things look at the end of the season.
  11. bean5302
    I am. Valimont is pitching against AA hitters who often don't have good plate discipline. If they can lay off his offerings and take pitches for balls, it means Valimont's stuff isn't going to fool anybody at the MLB level.
  12. bean5302
    Somebody must have told them it was the playoffs...
  13. bean5302
    If I was to hazard a guess it would have something to do with Donaldson being in his stance ready for the pitch and Arraez is staring off into the outfield stands, facing away from the plate unable to see what was happening. Then, Arraez started moving around in Donaldson's line of sight to pick up the pitch. Arraez wasn't in position, he wasn't ready and he was distracting Donaldson. Feels pretty disrespectful to me. I don't think it's any big deal. More of just a "Come on, man! Get your head in the game!" The dugout conversation looked like a no biggie to me.
  14. bean5302
    After this last start, I can't see any MLB team discussing Happ at all. There are guys any team has at AAA who would probably be a better choice.
  15. bean5302
    Polanco looks to be putting together a solid 2.5-3.0 WAR campaign this year based on positional value and his bat. There are reasons to think Polanco's performance at the plate continue to climb a bit since his BABIP is still a bit too low at .267 compared to his career .307, but his HR rate is probably a bit inflated. Polanco doesn't walk a ton, but he also doesn't strike out a lot and he brings a little pop. Defensive metrics can be pretty unreliable until you get a couple full seasons together and there are several different systems for measuring play. While Baseball Reference shows Polanco with a Total Zone per 1200 innings of +10 runs, UZR/150 shows Polanco at a -13.7 runs over 150 games. That's literally 2 WAR difference just in defensive metric projections across a full season. Regardless of the advanced metrics, one thing which is clear, the biggest contributor to Polanco's previous defensive shortcomings (error rate) is still an issue. That said, Polanco is playing as a 2B consistently for the first time in several years so there's still room for improvement. While Polanco's contract is pretty minimal right now, it grades up to $10.5MM by year 2024 and I don't think he provides a big upside over Luis Arraez. Honestly, I think Arraez is good enough to start on a lot of MLB teams so keeping him as a utility guy feels wasteful. I think the Twins should seek to move Arraez or Polanco before next season and if I were choosing a player to move, it'd be Polanco for the savings.
  16. bean5302
    Mitch Garver vs Ryan Jeffers. Luckily, Garver (258 innings) and Jeffers (298 innings) have played in a similar number of innings with the same pitching staff this year. Framing? Garver +2, Jeffers +1. Errors? Identical = 1 Passed balls count? Identical = 2 Wild pitches? Garver = 10 vs. Jeffers = 12 Caught stealing? Garver 20% (career 20%), Jeffers 35% (career 25%), but opposing teams have run on Jeffers far more frequently 26 attempts vs. 15 attempts. Jeffers was bad in 2020, catching only 13% while Garver caught 33% last year. As far as CS%, that seems to fluctuate a lot, year to year. It seems hard to gauge without a few years in a row with similar numbers. If I were a betting person, I'd wager the stance on Garver's defense has more to do with reputation than reality.
  17. bean5302
    I've seen AA as a place where players work on their mechanics and craft against high level competition and AAA as a place pitchers prove their polish and locating, but that's just my opinion. If the Twins aren't having him make any mechanical changes and he keeps dominating AA for another couple weeks, it would make sense to me to push him to AAA and / or make a September call up, but I'd imagine the Twins are going to be watching his innings if it looks like he's going to throw more than 100 this year. Just my guesswork bouncing around in my head.
  18. bean5302
    Glad to see Garver hitting the ball right away and Jake Cave running at full speed. Phrases like "back fracture" are kind of terrifying to me, and regardless of how people feel about his abilities on the field at the MLB level, I'd think nobody wishes those kinds of injuries on anybody. The fact Balazovic got through 7.0 innings on just 90 pitches and only 2 more batters than the minimum is awesome. That's serious efficiency to go along with the double digit strikeouts. Hope he can keep it going and get up to 100 innings.
  19. bean5302
    Varland didn't sound like he was really heavily scouted as he was a 15th rounder in 2019 and, of course, missed 2020 due to the COVID shutdowns. The Twins reworked his delivery mechanics and he picked up several miles per hour on his fastball. Varland sits in the upper 90s now and can touch 100 in max effort throws. He also throws a slider, changeup and is working on a cutter, but based on his draft position and him describing himself as fastball heavy out of college, I expect all of them have needed some work. Evidently the work on his pitches must be paying off, but his UCL strain right away in 2019 does set off some red flags on durability expectations as far as I'm concerned. If he can continue seeing success as he moves up the ladder, it'll be a huge feather in the cap of the Twins front office and obviously a dream come true to stand on the mound at the MLB level for a kid who didn't have a hint he'd be drafted before getting the phone call. Seth did an interview with him earlier this year.
  20. bean5302
    Because I'm assuming if the Twins trade Donaldson, Berrios, Rogers and Buxton, and then don't pick up the option for Colombe, they won't be paying Donaldson, Berrios, Rogers, Buxton or Colombe. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/2022/ On the books currently for 2022: $52MM. Less Donaldson & Colombe = $26MM (includes Sano, Kepler, Maeda, Polanco, Dobnak). I eyeballed the $14MM figure. Garver, Duffey & Robles are the only other players we have control over currently making more than $1MM and performance or injury will keep all three of them from getting huge raises. If it winds up being $20MM instead of $14MM, I don't think the difference is relevant to my point, though.
  21. bean5302
    In regard to whether or not the Twins can compete in 2022 if they move Buxton, Berrios, Rogers and Donaldson combined, the answer is yes. Colombe is going to need to pitch out of his mind good to have the Twins pick up his option. That would leave Minnesota with a tiny $26MM on the books for next year, plus another, say, $14MM for bringing back the rest of the roster. What could they do with $80-$90MM in a typical Twins budget? Just about anything they want. Major components of the team could look totally different. If the Twins only went with other in house options, got nobody MLB ready in return for those players and tried to compete with a $40MM payroll? Obviously, they'd look like a team gearing up to lose 100 games, but it seems really unlikely for that to happen.
  22. bean5302
    There continues to be a lot of talk about Buxton, but the reality is he's not likely going to be out of a splint much before the trade deadline itself, and he'll need an obvious rehab assignment. Buxton being ready for MLB games much before early/mid August is probably unlikely and teams are usually pretty skittish about trading for injured players. I have advocated for Buxton being shopped, at least, to get a perspective on what other teams think of him, but it's hard to get a good feel for a player's value while they're injured. Sucks for everybody. Buxton himself, the front office and the fans.
  23. bean5302
    If it's not about the money, Buxton would just sign for 1 year with 10 team options all for the MLB minimum. It's absolutely about the money, haha. That's okay, by the way. He's a professional and pretty much all professionals expect to be compensated fairly. The Twins aren't going to trash talk Buxton to the media and Buxton isn't going to trash the Minnesota Twins and say he doesn't want to be here, either. Well, at least it's very rare to see a MLB player take that position. The next couple of weeks should be really interesting.
  24. bean5302
    Sounds a lot like a Tommy Milone ceiling, but only hoping for the best. It's a dream for any player to get a shot at the big leagues!
  25. bean5302
    Yep, the Twins were also in a position to sign Yu Darvish in 2018, and there has pretty much never been a signing which would have made more sense. Basically, just because the Twins could sign Berrios, Buxton and Rogers doesn't mean they will or they expect to. I consider the Twins to be masters of saving face in the public eye by making lowball offers which aren't exactly "insulting" but are also unlikely to get guys to sign. The Twins claim they made a good offer and shucky darn, some other team just came along and paid more. What can ya do?
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