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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Byron Buxton hit .156 in 2018, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on his offensive capabilties. Mike Trout hit .220 in 2011, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on his offensive capabilities. Babe Ruth hit .200 in 1914, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on how he was always destined to be a nameless, faceless roster filler candidate.
  2. bean5302
    Godoy managed a wRC+ of 84 at age 26 in AAA last year. Rortvedt, wRC+ 101 at age 23. What Godoy did in Rookie Ball does not provide value in his hitting evaluation. Is Rortvedt likely a plus hitter? Nope. He's a defensive stud with the potential of being a close to average MLB hitter. Godoy is a defensively adequate and will be a very below average hitter. There's no real projectability or ceiling left. It's why he was on the waiver wire.
  3. bean5302
    You're feel to read the write up I posed on Donaldson. or another writeup with a more sensational headline by a different member here. In 2017, Donaldson missed qualifying for the Championship awards by just 8 plate appearances. Sano has qualified for Championship awards just once in his entire career. Buxton has qualifed once. Ever. I think the fact Donaldson was reliable (by modern baseball standards) in the past 2 full seasons in a row gives him wiggle room and makes the "very injury prone" statement weak.
  4. bean5302
    While the Twins are certainly far more interested in long term contracts and big dollars for position players than pitchers, I just don't know about the likelihood they're in serious pursuit of Story. The Twins are often linked to top free agents as having made contact or talked with agents and the like, but when it comes down to it, the Twins have never signed a $100MM+ free agent, ever. The extension of Buxton and signing of Story? Two $100MM+ contracts in the same season would be pretty extreme for Minnesota. Boston is also in the discussions with Story at this point, and no doubt Houston is talking to Story's agents since they're talking to Correa as well. While Bogaerts may want to remain at SS, he's not a particularly great one and he has an opt out clause he's likely to exercise at the end of this year. I think Boston is a much likelier ending point for Story than people may think.
  5. bean5302
    I'm entitled to my opinion as much as anybody else. If you've watched Rosario and the kind of utterly trash pitches he's driven hard, you might feel different. Rosario hit .288 and .290 while still chasing trash and walking at 5% across 2017-2018. Rosario typically posts excellent contact rates despite his aggressive style and the fact he receives a low percentage of pitches in the strike zone. Rosario does and can recognize balls vs. strikes. He's just overly aggressive. Rosario could compete for the batting title if he'd lay off the trash pitches. Instead, early in his career, Rosario sold out for power trying to keep up with Sano and I believe he's been arrogant as a result of his successes in hitting garbage. There is some hope for him. Rosario is trying to tighten up his game based on his swinging strike rate and o-contact rates. His swinging strike rate was under 10% last year and his o-contact rate has skyrocketed while his overall swing percentage hasn't dropped much.
  6. bean5302
    I agree with most of the viewpoints I've seen on Lewis. He's a total wildcard. I also think Lewis' stock will likely swing wildly in his first 2-3 months of the season. If he looks like the stud his althleticism projects, he'll rocket to one of the top prospects, if not the top prospect in baseball across the board for mid-season grades. If Lewis performs like his last season in AA, his stock will fall off a cliff. My point on all this is Falvey was hired to develop players from the farm system with the promises of advances in analytics following through to player development. We've seen absolutely nothing from any of Falvey's draft picks at the MLB level and this is year 6 with virtually all his first round picks being traded away or precariously close to "bust" status. The Twins were one of the oldest teams in baseball last year. He's got one year to put up major results in my opinion. If he's punting on Royce Lewis, I don't think his drafts remaining in the farm system have enough talent to save his job at this point.
  7. bean5302
    From MLB.com Austin Martin = 65 Royce Lewis = 55 Misael Urbina = 55 Danny DeAndrade = 55 Alerick Soularie = 50 Jose Miranda = 50 Aaron Sabato = 50 Emmanuel Rodriguez = 50 Spencer Steer = 50 Yunior Severino = 50 From Baseball America in regard to general definitions. A 50 grade tool is "average" https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-20-80-baseball-scouting-scale/ It's worth noting that a players batting average may not represent their actual hit tool as plate discipline and experience can make a huge impact here. I'd say Eddie Rosario has at least a 70 grade hit tool. If he'd learn some discipline, his batting average would skyrocket. Royce Lewis scouting reports also mention Lewis being over-aggressive at the plate, but his pitch recognition and bat speed being well above average.
  8. bean5302
    Donaldson played 135 games last year, many of them with a lingering calf injury because the Twins wanted to manipulate Jose Miranda's service time rather than give Donaldson a chance to heal. Donaldson played in 155 games in 2019. In fact, the "very injury prone" Josh Donaldson has played in the 74th most games of any MLB player across 2019-2021 with 318 games. That'd make him the 2nd or 3rd most reliable player on any ballclub in general. Trevor Story ranked 30th in all of MLB with 346 games. Just 28 more than Donaldson across the past 3 years. Buxton played 187 games. Sano played 293 games. Kepler played 303 games. Cruz played 313 games. Donaldson? Again... 318 games. Even if Donaldson played the same, mediocre-ish brand of defense at 3B and just had normal luck, he'd have put up 4 WAR this past year.
  9. bean5302
    If you wish hard enough, anything is true. Put the Twins in the NL West and their 2019 team would have finished .500, at best. Rockies vs. Twins 2021 = $104MM vs. $121MM 2020 = $60MM vs. $49MM 2019 = $145MM vs. $113MM 2018 = $141MM vs. $131MM The 2022 predictions depend greatly on your source. BR predicted 3 over .500 teams in the AL Central this year. The White Sox are going to be very strong. I expect the Tigers to be a tough team as well. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2949927-way-too-early-predictions-for-the-2022-mlb-playoffs-and-world-series
  10. bean5302
    Gray is not Berrios. No where close. Once upon a time, Gray was better, but that was like 8 years ago. Now, Gray is far more volatile, dramatically less reliable and his velocity is dropping. There's a reason Gray is on a $31MM and Berrios is on a $131MM contract. See that extra $100,000,000.00 on Berrios' contract? It means something.
  11. bean5302
    You should throw the also completely unrelated Cruz trade in there because it makes your argument better.
  12. bean5302
    For a front office who consistently goes dumpster diving based on advanced metrics and projections... Donaldson looks like a 4-5 WAR player for this season if his luck returns to normal. All his advanced metrics showed he hit the ball just as well and had the plate discipline he's always had. Donaldson was a panic salary dump.
  13. bean5302
    Story desperately wanted to get out of a poor performing team with little direction in a tough division and owners who are viewed as cheap. The Twins were a poor performing team with little direction in a division which looks to be tough for the foreseeable future and owners who are viewed as cheap. I don't see the Twins spending the money. I don't see Story being interested in Minnesota.
  14. bean5302
    Larnach has no value, IMHO. Baseballtradevalues may show some, but all it will take is one look at his advanced metrics for any team to say "no way" on placing significant value on Larnach. AA stats don't matter when you can't hit any MLB breaking or offspeed pitches.
  15. bean5302
    Honestly, if the front office made the suggested trade, I'd fire Falvey on the spot. Not because of the trade, but because it assures he tanked on the number 1 overall pick. Evaluating based on performances so far and how much value they've given or are expected to give to the Twins on the field... 2017 - Royce Lewis #1 2017 - Brent Rooker #35 2018 - Trevor Larnach #20 2019 - Keoni Cavaco #13 2020 - Aaron Sabato #27 2021 - Chase Petty #26 2021 - Noah Miller #36 Not a single one of those guys would be likely to produce any significant on field WAR for the Twins. Falvey should be on a burning lava throne right now.
  16. bean5302
    Because Martin isn't fast, doesn't have a strong arm and lacks power. Martin is not an projectable as an MVP type of player. Martin is a high floor, moderate ceiling type of player in my opinion. If he's moved to the corner outfield spot people keep talking about, his ceiling is probably 3.0-4.0 WAR. Conversely, if Lewis' elite athleticism allows him to play even average shortstop, he could be a more valuable player than a healthy Buxton.
  17. bean5302
    Well, when it's all said and done, you have to play the games so who really knows, but it seems to be both Garver and Donaldson are probably underrated. Garver, Rortvedt and Donaldson's projections show they're expected to produce quite a bit more than Gray, Sanchez and Urshela so in terms of on the field projections, the Twins are worse than they were, but the killer is they lost Petty along with it. They're worse on paper, they don't have any additional team control over players and they lost one of their top prospects.
  18. bean5302
    I have nothing against Simmons personally. I think his stance on vaccination was irresponsible and poorly informed as was his public stance on the matter. It's not like it makes him a bad person; however, it did make him a bad team mate and he embarrassed the Twins' franchise. Simmons did not sit out 2020. He played for the Angels in 30 games. Aside from that, Simmons' career bat is well below average at a wRC+ of 87 and his median performance is similar. From a defensive standpoint, he was below MLB average with a UZR/150 of -1.1 last year because of a higher than average error rate and, probably, poor range. This makes sense considering Simmons' trend downward in defensive prowess. His UZR/150 has declined pretty quickly as he approached and passed age 30 with marked decreases in sprint speed and steady increases in the amount of time it took to get from home to first base (which was below average across his entire career for shortstop to begin with). Simmons' advanced metrics also showed he made poor contact when he did connect and he ranked pretty much dead last in MLB in exit velocity and barrel rate among other things. He wasn't unlucky. His expected statistics were right in line with his actual production. There wasn't a single pitch type where Simmons produced positive value and he was abysmal vs. sinkers, sliders and even 4 seam fastballs. He struggled against changeups and curveballs, too. It was an across the board disaster in performance and when you're playing poorly while simultaneously taking a public issue on an extremely hot topic, the fans are not going to be kind.
  19. bean5302
    This is what accidental tanking looks like.
  20. bean5302
    How was Gray in 2016 or 2018?
  21. bean5302
    I'm dead serious with Florimon. He's was a super elite defensive shortstop who couldn't hit. He's been on MiLB contracts for the last several years. You want to quote Baseball Reference, that's fine. My issue with bWAR is I consider it kinda junk for defensive premium positions because of the shift and the fact bWAR doesn't account for it resulting in the potential to dramatically inflate actual value. Fangraphs, which uses a metric which does attempt to account for the shift (UZR) is 2.3 fWAR for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, which is barely holding his own for starting player and he played in 158 games last year. The Texas Rangers thought so much of him and his cheap, team controlled contract that they went out and signed two shortstops to replace him. Bottom line? Texas viewed Isiah Kiner-Falefa as a liability on a playoff caliber team or they wouldn't have been seeking to replace him. Sonny Gray has lost velocity and trended downwards over the past few years and he had a great 2019 which skews the numbers (over the past 3 years). If you're expecting a return to 2019 form in a league with a DH, I think you're being unreasonably optimistic.
  22. bean5302
    Honestly, my thought is the Pohlads were planning for the lockout to result in potentially many lost games and they were looking to limit payroll this year. Also, the Twins lost a ton in 2020 and probably lost some money in 2021 and the Pohlad's typically take the previous year results into consideration when projecting the team's budget for the upcoming year. I doubt Buxton's escalators are even a thought in the back of the budget's mind. If he hits them, he's an asset.
  23. bean5302
    GG caliber shorstop = Pedro Florimon. Maybe we should have signed him instead? He played on a MiLB contract at AAA San Diego as depth behind Tatis last year. Kiner-Falefa is far below averge at the plate and that's an issue when half of the game is trying to hit the ball. Top 30 starting pitcher? Sure, 5 years ago. Sonny Gray's FIP looked pretty good last year, even so, he was the 48th ranked pitcher on Fangraphs in terms of WAR and didn't qualify because he was hurt too much. On Baseball Reference, Sonny Gray was 36th, 6 spots behind league ace Kyle Gibson.
  24. bean5302
    See Santana and Berrios? Santana spent 8 years in a Twins uniform. Berrios spent 6 years in a Twins uniform. Signing those guys to long term contracts means you've failed to develop replacements. Signing any player in free agency means the farm system failed to produce the needed talent. Period. Sometimes it's going to fail to produce. It's the case for every team. Hoping the farm system fails and you have to sign top talent at free agency wouldn't be my goal.
  25. bean5302
    Sure. Replacing a tire with a hole in it with a bald temporary spare while you're parked at a tire shop helps with driving a car, too. It doesn't mean there weren't far better options...
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