bean5302

I think I misunderstood the intention of your original response. I read it as don't trade Sano even at the deadline when it seems you meant, don't trade him before he has an opportunity to build some value during the regular season because you're convinced his value is currently nil so the Twins lose nothing by holding/waiting. I'd agree with the expectation his value is low; however, I don't know for sure that's the case. If the CBA includes a full time DH in the NL, Sano could have more significant value than expected after his hot finish to the season. I'd rather the Twins trade him now if they can get something for him rather than risk him having another horrible start to the year. Sano was rocking a .196/.279/.426 triple slash for a .705 OPS at the All Star Break last year. That's good for about an OPS+ or wRC+ of 85-ish. Now that is truly no value.

You mean like if Miguel Sano was worth extending then he would also have trade value...

So you think he'll have no trade value, but he'll totally be worth extending? Aside from that, I'm not sure where you get durable and athletic? Sano barely qualified for the batting title last year for the very first time in his entire career, but still missed nearly 30 games during the season. It was the first time in his career he's played more than 116 games. In regard to athleticism, that left him some years ago. He's now a well below average speed runner and his quickness and range departed several years ago. Even his glove has turned to stone as he put together an unimaginably poor defensive effort in 2021.

Sano's last year with the Twins is this one. He'll be traded before the start of the season, at the deadline if he has value or he'll be allowed to become a free agent at the end of the year. During his time on the active roster, he'll serve as a DH.

I mean... I could use the 4 games and 17.1 innings in AAA where Winder was apparently dealing with a shoulder impingement the Twins also called dead arm, but you just accused me of cherry picking based on 10 games and 54.2 innings. Also, Winder earned his promotion to AAA after only 10 starts and 54.2 innings because the Twins saw whatever it was they wanted to see and were confident he was ready for the next level fast. The shoulder is of some concern. The performance was dominant. The other pitchers in the list provided were never dominant at the high minors level.

Career numbers in AA 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 10.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.90 K:BB (Alex Meyer) 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 9.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 2.14 K:BB (Trevor May) 4.22 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 7.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 2.03 K:BB (Tyler Jay) 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 6.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.55 K:BB (Kohl Stewart) 2.35 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 10.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.96 K:BB (Stephen Gonsavles) 3.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB (Fernando Romero) 3.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.7 H/9, 5.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB (Felix Jorge) 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.21 K:BB (Aaron Slegers) 3.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.80 K:BB (Adalberto Mejia) 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 10.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.31 K:BB (Lewis Thorpe) 1.98 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 6.50 K:BB (Josh Winder) Perhaps that illustrates just a little bit better as to why Josh Winder might be worth keeping. The closest competitor to Winder is Stephen Gonsalves, who was throwing 90mph in his first stint in MLB and had a single borderline plus pitch and 2 other average MLB offerings. Winder has 4 MLB pitches and 2 plus pitches with a 3rd borderline plus pitch. The two are not remotely comparable. When you have a pitcher who is absolutely dominant at AA, that's uncommon. When you have a guy who is dominant in the high minors and they have the stuff to back up the performance, that's something rare and important to keep an eye on.

I'd be willing to bet the new CBA is going to include a salary floor at least $100MM. It was proposed by the owners because the big teams are sick and tired of being unable to wean some teams off revenue sharing and because it will support the move of teams like Oakland and Tampa to better markets/stadiums.

I think that's a pretty big leap. There's no reason to leak anything since teams can still discuss trades all they like so the Twins can just pick up a phone and call whomever they'd like. Also, with the lockout ongoing, season ticket sales aren't going to be busy no matter what so appeasing the fans at this point probably doesn't do much.

I think the ceiling on Winder is higher than mid rotation. I think the midpoint is #3 and I think the floor is #4-5 at this point, barring injuries. I'm more optimistic about Winder than any of our other pitching prospects. Winder has a 4 pitch mix. Personally, I believe a 4+ pitch mix is virtually required for upper rotation arms. Beyond the 4 pitches, though, he has multiple plus offerings (fastball and slider) with a borderline plus changeup and a decent curveball. When you see a 4 pitch mix with a couple plus offerings and another good offering, that's a recipe for success. Winder was absolutely dominant at AA last year. He didn't give up hits or allow walks. He also struck out 10.7 per 9 innings while also efficiently eating innings with less than 15 pitches per inning. At 100 pitches, Winder would average 7 innings per start. Even though Winder stumbled a bit in AAA, his swinging strike rate, walk rate and efficiency were all solid. The only warning flag for me was the shutdown over the shoulder. Winder talked about his shutdown being purely precautionary, but it does feel like there may have been a bit more to it.

While scouts could be wrong, they're pretty universal on Austin Martin not being suited for center field (range) or shortstop (range/arm). Most scouts expect Austin to wind up at 2B, but that does assume he develops. Interestingly, Falvey has talked about potentially using Martin at shortstop next year so perhaps the Twins have seen more than the general perception of scouts around the league or the Twins simply don't value defense at shortstop much. Since teams can talk about trades during the lockout, but they cannot negotiate with players on MLB contracts, it might be exciting to see what happens at the lockout's end. Trades might come in fast and furious like the deadline. I don't have an opinion on whether or not the Twins should trade Martin. It all depends what they get for him.

You bring your own facts and data. If you can find something, stomp my facts and data into the ground, don't ask me to keep searching for something that proves you're right and I'm wrong. The paper may go back to a time which seems disconnected to what we consider modern techniques, but the research paper was published in 2018. I am not a surgical researcher and I'm not qualified to evaluate the validity of the sample data used. I found articles talking about modern techniques in ACL repair proving to be unreliable or problematic over time and other advancements proving to be non-valuable. I found nothing in my search to indicate ACL repair was almost certainly going to be successful with modern techniques. https://www.healio.com/news/orthopedics/20170712/patients-who-never-make-it-back-after-acl-injury-present-opportunities-challenges According to Robert A. Arciero, MD, professor of orthopedics at the UConn Health Center, studies have shown there is a return-to-play rate of about 63% to 65% for professional football players after ACL injury and related treatment. This is lower than public perception, he noted. The percent of return to play after ACL injury “in high school-aged kids, [is] somewhere in the mid- to high-80s,” Arciero said. “In major league soccer, it is somewhere between 70% and 85%.”

Where's your data? Did you accidentally wipe it away before you flushed this morning?

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/52/2/128 Meta Analysis showing elite sports players return to sport rates, though the meta analysis included college level players who may have been seniors, etc who may have just elected to graduate and be done or something. Football 78% Basketball 82% Soccer 85% "Among elite baseball players, ACL reconstruction to the rear batting leg was associated with decreased batting average on return to sport" I don't think it's as guaranteed as you make it out to be. Lewis relies upon explosive acceleration, lateral movement and sprint speed to generate a lot of his value at shortstop. A lost step or two would make a big impact on Royce Lewis' potential value, though I do think he'll still be athletic enough. Just have to wait and see.

No, NO! N. O. NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! - Calculon

Where did you get the impression the Twins were considering Polanco as the shortstop? Falvey specifically mentioned even considering Austin Martin for the job, but is open to a veteran signing in the exact same way they were last year. https://www.startribune.com/royce-lewis-isnt-ready-so-jorge-polanco-should-return-to-twins-shortstop/600103985/ I mean, it's certainly not impossible, but I haven't seen anything from Falvey or Levine indicating they were planning on Polanco being the shortstop.

He totally could. He could blow Akil Baddoo out of the water, in fact, but the Twins don't have a good reason to rush him to the MLB level because he doesn't need to be on the 26 man or returned to another team. Lewis hasn't played competitive baseball in two years and is coming off a major surgery which can end careers. I'd rather give Lewis Spring Training and a couple months between AA/AAA before calling him up. Like I said, if Lewis gets 400 PA with the Twins, it would signal Lewis simply forced his way onto the roster by playing simply outstanding. That's a great thing.

Well, the Twins had 1 pitcher eclipse 1.9 fWAR in 2021, and they're no longer on the team. Steamer shows Ober and Ryan as serviceable back end rotation arms, which, to be honest, is pretty darn good considering they're both making league minimum. Zips seems as bullish on the pitchers performance level, but less on the innings. A good team would normally be expected to get 20+ WAR from their position players and 20+ WAR from their pitching staff. The Twins weren't too far off in the hitting category, but their pitching was miserable. An embarrassing 8.2 fWAR from the entire staff... and 2.4 of those came from Berrios. The #3 and #2 pitchers were Taylor Rogers had 1.6 fWAR, Kenta Maeda 1.7 fWAR. When your closer, who plays half a season is virtually tied with the best starter still on your team (who is also missing at least 1/2 of next season), that's not a great endorsement for expectations, lol. That said, we'll just have to see what happens. Also, Royce Lewis will not be playing at the MLB level prior to a cup of coffee in 2022 barring some sort of miraculous performance in the minors so any MLB playing time for Lewis should be viewed as a major success, and if he gets 400 plate appearances, that would mean he would have needed to look incredible in spring training and the first month or two of the season.

Mauer forced Little to drink half and half despite being lactose intolerant, convinced Little would get better if he put on weight.

Larnach getting a call before midseason seems unreasonable based on how badly he struggled against almost anything other than a 4 seam fastball last year at the MLB level and how he failed to turn it around after a demotion to AAA. Rooker is much quicker than he gets credit for, but he gets bad jumps on balls. He's probably a servicable corner outfielder, but he needs to prove it was crazy bad luck that kept his production low rather than the shift, etc. Wallner has 40 grade speed with a projection of 35 speed on fangraphs (ouch). He's a DH unless he can improve the athleticism. Garlick could maybe handle a corner spot if given the opportunity. He just doesn't have a lot of track record and he's not a good option for a 4th outfielder because he can't cover center. Kirilloff would be worth a lot more in the corners than 1B. Fangraphs has Kirilloff as a 30 grade speed, though I'm not sure how they came to that conclusion and MLB has him as a 50 grade. Kirilloff managed a 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed (60th percentile in MLB) which is more than enough for the corners. Kepler is a solid corner outfielder. He's dropped some speed in the past couple years so he's probably no longer a valid option in center field like he was in 2019. He's a known quanitity worth starting as an everyday player. Martin is seen as a second baseman by most scouts. He doesn't appear to have the range for center field or the arm for SS or 3rd base. Celestino is a center fielder, not a corner outfielder. It would be a waste to stick him in the corners where his limited bat would do far less for value creation. Considering Buxton is going to be hurt for 80-100 games next year, Celestino is best used as a replacement there. Cave profiles as a AAAA player. Fisher has generated a grand total of -0.1 fWAR in his career. He's MiLB depth as far as I'm concerned. The rest of the farm options are not ready, emergency backups or MiLB depth, IMHO. I think it would be fair to say the Twins have a lot of players who technically play corner outfielder at some level or another. They have precious few proven MLB caliber corner outfielders.

I think career ERA, Wins and Cy Youngs were the stats/awards which most influenced Hall of Fame elections in the 1990s. Strikeouts were neat, but kind of an a boost rather than a main point, I think. You could look at Nolan Ryan as an example. He reigns supreme with 5,714 career strikeouts, but it was the 324 wins that got him to Cooperstown. The 8x he received Cy Young votes helped as well. At least in my opinion.

Well, how messed up it was (maybe is again). There was a revolution in metrics and value during Blyleven's time on the ballot. When he got his first year of eligibility, ERA, wins and Cy Young totals were what was important. Blyleven's 3.31 career ERA wasn't under 3.00, his 287 wins weren't 300 and he'd never won a Cy Young. By year 14, I think a lot of writers were utterly stunned Blyleven hadn't been elected when they started looking at things like WAR. The more metrics advanced, the more they cut through the garbage of politics and made it more clear just how dominant Blyleven was and how robbed he got from playing on bad teams.

Win loss ratio, relative to the team's record, I think, does mean a lot. The reason why wins are typically not considered a valuable statistic is the context is missing. It's not possible to fairly compare pitchers from different teams, eras or even leagues based on wins.

If Blyleven had played on good teams, he'd have won 350 games and 4 or 5 Cy Youngs. Blyleven accumulated the 13th highest total WAR among pitchers in MLB history. 164.8 = Walter Johnson (1907-1927) 163.6 = Cy Young (1890-1911) 139.2 = Roger Clemens (1984-2007) 119.0 = Pete Alexander (1911-1930) 116.3 = Kid Nichols (1890-1906) *109.9 = Tom Seaver (1967-1986) 106.8 = Lefty Grove (1925-1941) 106.6 = Greg Maddux (1986-2008) 106.5 = Christy Mathewson (1900-1916) 101.1 = Randy Johnson (1988-2009) 100.1 = Warren Spahn (1942-1965) *95.9 = Phil Niekro (1964-1987) 94.5 = Bert Blyleven (1970-1992) *Bert Blyleven's contemporaries. Honestly, Bert Blyleven was the second best pitcher in his era (70s and 80s) behind only the legendary Tom Seaver. and pretty even with Phil Niekro. Blyleven was better at his best, but Niekro was less up and down. Blyleven accumulated 49.1 bWAR in a Twins uniform including half-seasons where he was traded from and to the Twins in 1976 and 1985. This is behind only Killebrew, Carew, Mauer and Puckett. No pitcher in history has added more career bWAR in a Twins uniform. Not Kaat, Santana, Viola or Radke (who was much better than you remember and spent his entire career in Minnesota). Blyleven is 5th all time in strikeouts and 9th all time in complete game shutouts.

I don't have any issues with the Twins running with the pitchers they have and rebuilding. I don't have any issues with the Twins trading for front end rotation arms and competing. I do have a problem with the Twins log jamming their older prospects behind mediocre at best arms who the Twins will refuse to release in a timely manner. It's time for the Twins to prove they have the arms or prove they're willing to bring in the arms. It's that simple to me.

If these pitchers are ready and the reason the front office isn't going after high quality, proven, front end starters is to avoid roadblocking the pitchers we have, then no additional starters should be signed. This article reads like having your cake and eating it, too. We've got 3 rotation spots locked up already. Signing more would just be log-jamming our prospects behind mediocre pitchers instead of log-jamming them behind elite pitchers. Even more pointless. No idea why the Twins signed Bundy if they have all these arms ready for 2022, but lets look into them. Balazovic was challenged to make adjustments to use his breaking pitch and changeup more instead of relying so heavily on his fastball. He wound up inconsistent and ineffective down the stretch. He's never spent time at AAA. Duran has arm issues, pitched only 16 innings last year and couldn't get outs or throw strikes at AAA. He shouldn't be considered a starter candidate before 2023, if he doesn't need surgery. If he does, we won't see him as a starter until 2024. Winder seems like he's ready for an MLB rotation spot. He had "dead arm" or a shoulder issue down the stretch and a rough go of things at AAA, but he's honestly probably the most ready of the prospects. Sands, like Balazovic may be ready to make the jump from AA to the big show, but I'm sure the Twins would like him to see action in AAA. He only pitched 80 innings last year due to an undisclosed injury. Vallimont can't throw strikes and can't get outs. Woods Richardson barely pitched for us. I'm really not buying the story on him just needing to work out to pitch again. He had a month off pitching. It doesn't take 2 months to get ready to pitch again. I like him as a prospect, but there's no chance he's ready before the end of 2022 at the earliest. Something's amiss here. Stroatman can't throw strikes and if he tries extra hard to throw them, he gets crushed. Canterino's elbow is awfully sketchy. He pitched only 23 innings in 2021 and didn't make it above A+. 2023 at the absolute earliest in the rotation. Varland is a great story, but there are a lot of tempered expectations because of what he was when drafted. Does Varland have the stuff or does he just have adequate polish to succeed in the low minors? He hasn't pitched above A+ ball. Listing him as a potential MLB pitcher in 2022 isn't realistic, but I suppose it's theoretically possible. Of the list, I would say Winder and mayyyyyybe Sands could take a rotation spot day 1. Balazovic could join the rotation in maybe June after a couple months at AAA? Woods-Richardson could get a cup of coffee. I don't see Canterino or Varland joining the rotation before 2023 and Duran, Vallimont, Stroatman are probably bullpen guys.