bean5302

The top 50, top 100 etc prospect lists involve all speculation and guesswork. They're nice for casual fans like me so I can have a much less biased source for information and expectations, but it's not like they're hard set. For example. Baseball Prospectus had the 2015 top 10 Twins, how they ranked in the top 101 in MLB that year and how I see their current / historical mixed value. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/25324/2015-prospects-minnesota-twins-top-10-prospects/ Byron Buxton 1 in MLB - Daily MLB player Miguel Sano 14th in MLB - Borderline MLB talent Alex Meyer 32nd in MLB - Bust Kohl Stewart 54th in MLB - Bust Jose Berrios 75th in MLB - All Star Nick Gordon - Bust Lewis Thorpe - Bust Nick Burdi - Bust Jorge Polanco - All Star Stephen Gonsalves - Bust The same list from MLB.com listed: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=min Buxton - Regular Player Berrios - All Star Jay - Bust Polanco - All Star Gordon - Bust Kepler - Regular Player Stewart - Bust Meyer - Bust Gonsalves - Bust Brett-Walker II - Bust Chargois - Middle Relief? Burdi - Bust Rogers - All Star Closer Thorpe - Bust Cabbage - Bust Blankenhorn - Bust Reed - Bust Turner, Stuart - Bust Harrison, Travis - Bust Romero, Fernano - Bust The trend is obviously in favor of the lists, but they're hardly absolutes. Prospects at the top of the lists are more likely to be MLB quality and higher quality than players further down, but even players low on the lists can become studs (Taylor Rogers).

Well I sure have and I find the loss of big parts of people's lives to be emotional, even when there are mixed feelings on the change. Not wanting to stay in Minnesota but liking his experience with the Twins are not mutually exclusive. Finding out which players cry when traded is not information which generally interests me so I don't seek it out. I don't remember any player crying. I didn't hear Berrios cried until this article. Most fans would consider anything at 5+ years and $110MM+ reasonable.

Agree with the popular sentiment. Trading all the players listed above would be tantamount to a complete rebuild fire sale. Polanco and Garver would absolutely have to go as well as the list above. Each player needs to be evaluated on their own as contracts needs are determined and offers for players are reviewed. The Twins have virtually nothing solid behind the players mentioned above.

This result, in my opinion, would be utterly fantastic. I don't share your optimism the twins have 5 prospect starters who are all going to pitch to 3.25-4.00 ERAs or so over 175+ innings each by 2023.

Ever cry after the end of a bad relationship or when you moved out of a place you didn't necessarily like? Regardless of how Berrios felt about the Twins, I would have been really surprised if he wasn't moved emotionally about the relationship ending. There was a lot invested in his time with the Twins, even if the end is bittersweet. The tears don't mean much to me in regard to whether or not he actually wanted to stay with the Twins. I'm sure we'll hear rumors leak out about what the Twins were or were not offering as time ticks by. As it stands right now, I view this as Berrios' decision not to sign a deal which most fans would have considered reasonable based on the efforts to sign Buxton.

I wouldn't sign Rodriguez or Ray regardless. They're not guys who could potentially replace a top of the rotation starter. Rodriguez looks like a bad luck candidate, but I don't know as I believe in the kind of luck he's having. His barrel rate, exit velocity and hard hit rates are all better than average, but his BABIP against is .369 and he's just getting shelled, not to mention he's giving up a lot of homers. He's also been totally ineffective at stranding runners with a miserable 64% strand rate blowing his ERA totally up. Reminds me too much of Ricky Nolasco. Robbie Ray has reached back to find 2.5mph more on his fastball than he had in 2019, returning to his career peak. He's always been prone to giving up HRs and this year is benefitting from a .270 BABIP and 89.7% strand rate. He's been super inconsistent over his career and he has a propensity to struggle with a similar zone% as Francisco Liriano had. His FIP looks reasonable at 3.93, but that's not what I would want for a Berrios replacement on a long term contract because if his change in velocity and the sudden ability to throw strikes don't stick, he'll tank. Syndergaard started throwing bullpens and the Mets have announced they'll probably use him out of the bullpen if he makes it back this year. I'm assuming that's for 2 reasons. The biggest of the two is they want Syndergaard to accept the qualifying offer they're absolutely going to make to him so putting him in the bullpen will likely hurt his value. I don't think the Twins have the risk tolerance to make him a legitimate offer even if Syndergaard does decline the qualifying offer, but I don't think he will. Gausman and Stroman do look like they're going to hit free agency. Gausman has been on record as prefering to stay in San Francisco. Of the two, Stroman would be my preference.

As I recall, Molitor didn't believe Polanco was capable of playing short due to his arm, but he wasn't given a lot of choice in the matter. Molitor is on record talking about improvements in throwing and footwork Polanco had made as helpful, but it was often with the caveats it wasn't universally accepted Polanco was in the right spot at SS. Also, I'm not sure I have seen a SS worse than Polanco. Trevor Plouffe's 2011 experience at SS grades out better than Polanco's 2016 in terms of UZR/150 and fielding percentage. Polanco was more error prone than Plouffe when they were both rookies playing SS. Polanco remains, literally, the worst starting shortstop in MLB from 2016-2020 with a UZR of -25.9 over 3.900 innings. No shortstop in MLB had a worse average UZR/150 (-11.0) and played over 1,500 innings over the same span. No shortstop has played as many innings as Polanco with such a low UZR/150 since the year 2000. Polanco stands alone at the very bottom. To get him out of the bottom 5, I had to drop the innings requirement to just 1,000 innings (less than a single full season) which expanded the number of players to 151 since 2000. Polanco was still 140th of 151 at that point.

Some pretty bullish folks on Polanco and his value. I honestly don't know how much of a leader Polanco is, and it's worth noting he's only 27. I view Polanco as expendable because Arraez is just as good, plays the same position and is less expensive. I do think Polanco is a solid enough player who I'd want to hang on to if it weren't for Arraez. I do believe Arraez is a little better. I see no reason not to agree that Polanco is likely to remain in that 3-4 WAR category. 2016 (270 PA) = -0.1 fWAR vs. 0.4 bWAR 2017 (544 PA) = 1.6 fWAR vs. 1.4 bWAR 2018 (333 PA) = 1.4 fWAR vs. 0.9 bWAR 2019 (704 PA) = 4.0 fWAR vs. 4.7 bWAR 2020 (226 PA) = 0.8 fWAR vs. 0.3 bWAR 2021 (415 PA) = 2.4 fWAR vs. 3.3 bWAR

It's not 2020 anymore even if it feels like it watching the news these days hahahaha

Berrios was not interested in signing with the Twins likely at or below market value. That was clear. Would you be okay with 8 years and $280MM for Berrios? An absolute massive and guaranteed overpay so he had no choice but to sign the worst contract in Minnesota Twins history? A contract which would utterly cripple the franchise for the next decade? If so, I'm not sure you're much of a Twins fan. If not, then the Twins had 2 options: 1. Let Berrios walk at the end of 2022 with (maybe) a comp round pick for 2023 or 2. Trade him. The Twins chose number 2 and now have 2 top 50 level prospects in the high minors with super high ceilings and expected low floors.

Ober is averaging 17 pitches per inning this year (16.8). At 101 pitches, he'd have 6.0 inning starts. He's clearly being pulled early from games, and that makes sense with his extremely limited innings history. Either that or "Early Hook Baldelli" is just being himself, lol.

A breakdown of Ober (18) 2014 Had impressive results out of his independed Christian high school, but wasn't drafted. (18) 2014 Attended a good, but not great college in College of Charleston (18) 2014 (Freshman Year) Very impressive pitching from the freshman 1.53 ERA 82 K, 19 BB in 106.2 IP (18) 2014 UCL tear ended his season. (19) 2015 he missed the season recovering from TJ (20) 2016 he had a good, but certainly not great, season 3.53 ERA, 96 K, 27 BB in 97.0 IP (20) 2016 23rd Round Pick by the Dodgers, didn't sign, returned to college (21) 2017 Took another step back in results during an injury riddled season. 4.53 ERA, 73 K, 11 BB in just 56.0 IP. (21) 2017 12th Round Pick as a Red shirt junior (4th year), (21) Pitched very well in rookie ball. 3.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 1.0 BB/9 in 28.0 IP. (22) 2018 pitched decent with 3.84 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 1.1 BB/9 in 75 IP in Low A. (22) 2018 Lost 3 months due to forearm issue (23) 2019 Dominated A+ and AA, but again, injuries 0.69 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9 across 78.2 IP (23) 2019 Spent 3.5 months on IL for UCL nerve issue, then spent another stint on the 7 day IL in Sept. (24) 2020 Lost season due to COVID shut down Having already had TJ and missed large sections of time in at least 2018 & 2019 for UCL and "forearm" related injuries. He's had a smattering of other trips to ILs through college and pro levels as well so it's hard to expect Ober to remain healthy. There are a lot of red flags here. All the injuries certainly contributed to Ober's stock falling and his low draft position, but his results in college declined each year as well. Ober didn't exactly light the world on fire in Rookie or Low-A ball through his first couple seasons in the minors, but he suddenly really turned it on in 2019. Now, having lost a year in 2020, and just now having turned 26, he's a borderline age for a "prospect." Part of that means he's been thrown to the wolves in the big show with mixed results. While Ober is consistently generating strikeouts and limiting walks, a lot of his punchouts are coming from called strikes. Through the middle of the season, Ober was struggling to generate misses and hitters were making a lot of hard contact including barreling up the ball at a high rate when they did swing. I love the control Ober shows, and pitch counts show semi-efficient appearances, averaging about 17 pitches per inning which would allow him to pitch 6.0 innings per 100 pitch outing. His track record is pretty spotty and having good control can often lead to dominance in A+/AA without having top tier stuff. Not sure where the sudden huge boost in movement came from this last game, but in order to secure a spot in the rotation, Ober will need to keep it up. Without that additional movement, MLB hitters are probably going to figure him out and relegate him to scrapping for that 5th starter position. That's assuming his elbow hangs in there.

I'm not too impressed with the development of hitting in the Twins' system under Falvey and Levine, though I hardly think the book is closed. I think it's pretty easy to make the case either way right now.

Saw the highlights. Arraez's throw was definitely off, but the fact he got a glove on that ball was pretty impressive. Arraez has a pretty solid glove overall, but it doesn't help when he's played 3B about 10 games a year since 2018. Gant spiked the ball hard 6" outside of and in front of the plate, 2 feet away from where Garver's spot was. Based on the stance, and the high bounce, Garver had virtually no chance to block that ball.

I noticed another issue with the minor league reports the last couple days. Miranda's batting line showed less than 3 hits per game... that just doesn't seem right?

For me, it's about production based on the award name. Awards that ignore production and focus on popularity have long been an issue in baseball. I'd feel differently if this was an award for "Prospect of the Month" but it's an award for Minor League Hitter of the Month.

Stroatman is a lottery ticket, IMHO. I don't expect him to pan out, but if he does, awesome!

Palacios is definitely a prospect which has rebuilt a lot of his value in my opinion. He's average age for the competition in AA this year at 24, but he's overdue for a promotion to AAA. I'd like to see him in MLB this year. He has more plate appearances in 2021 than the last 2 years combined. His walk rate is way up, and the past couple years (with not many plate appearances) showed some really horrible BABIP luck. If Palacios can hit .700 OPS at the MLB level, he can fill in at shortstop until Lewis or Martin is ready (if they make it). If Palacios can hold a .725 OPS, he could very well be a legitimate MLB shortstop.

It's been two years of physical maturing for Lewis so I'd expect him to showcase improved bat speed and power. I share the concerns about his bat, but 2 months of .900 OPS play at AA would go a long ways to allievating any concern. It's too early to make a judgement based on what very much looks like just a down year to me. Don't forget, at age 19, Lewis was holding his own at A+. He actually took a step back at age 20. His BABIP has seemed a bit low in A+ and AA considering his speed out of the box, but there was no jump in K rate between A+ and AA, either. There's a lot of good signs.

If I were to choose a shortstop from the list for a short term deal, it would be Crawford, provided he's available.

I'd certainly think it's high time Palacios was moved to AAA. I'd really like to see him playing shortstop on the roster in September. It seems like the Twins have moved on from Gordon and are now trying to transform him into a center fielder. Honestly, no friggen clue what the front office is thinking. Maybe they'll move Miguel Sano to center field next. He used to play shortstop, too. I suppose it's not shocking. After all, I seem to recall Gardy started Chris Parmelee in center field one time.

Top shortstop options are: Correa, Story, Simien are tier 1. Baez and Seager are tier 2. Crawford is tier 3 based on age. There are some other options who could provide stability, but no real value like Simmons, Rojas, Iglesias and Galvis. I think the combination of Polanco and Arraez needs to be addressed. Both are starting 2B, and while I think Arraez could play 3B, he's blocked by Donaldson.

That's good news. All the guys are throwing a whole lot more innings than 2020, obviously. Maybe the thinking is Winder was tiring out a bit and they're hoping a break will help him bounce back? Any news on Canterino? He was expected to come back any time now, right?

The take on Balazovic is about 2 weeks out of sync since he's has had two rough starts in a row. 8.1 IP, 10 R, 9 ER. 9 BB, 7 K, 3HRs Winder has also gotten knocked around in his last 3 appearances 11.2 IP, 8R, 8ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 4HRs. He hasn't pitched in 10 days and isn't scheduled to pitch today, either. I haven't heard anything about injury?

I see nothing to indicate the Pohlad family is willing to "spend money to make money;" I believe that is a foreign concept to them when it comes to baseball. I also feel strongly the Pohlads are not interested in building a World Series caliber roster as I believe their primary desire is to field a team built to win 85-90 games and rely on luck the rest of the way. Still, I hold out hope they will break the mold, make me eat crow and spend in free agency to address obvious needs for next year. Short term ace (like Verlander) plus a solid upper/mid rotation starter (like Stroman) along with a shortstop and cement their outfield.