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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    It turns out you don't have to only sign high priced free agents when you build a team, and blowing your entire budget on declining DH's while pretending they can play defensive positions like they did in their 20s doesn't work, either. The Pohlad's provided a budget, Falzoll doesn't understand how that works. If Falzoll failed despite actually addressing the needs of the team rather than building an indestructible 72 win floor team rather than a 95 win ceiling team, the Pohlad's stupid payroll cut decisions would carry more weight.
  2. bean5302
    I see. You believe AAA and MLB have the same difficulty level so a prospects stats in AAA could be directly compared to active MLB players in MLB. Makes sense you'd be enamored with Jenkins based on that.
  3. bean5302
    Exactly what is it about Jenkins' SSS of "above average" production in AAA which has you so enamored? He ranks 78th of 265 International League hitters with 100+ plate appearances this year with a wRC+ 117. Any explanation other than Hype-a-saurus Rex, please.
  4. bean5302
    Taj Bradley's fastball is what's winning games. Why is that when the xwOBA and OBA are so much worse than his cutter and splitter? Because MLB hitters are expected to hit fastballs harder than offspeed and breaking stuff. Relative to his peers, Bradley is getting solid results from his fastball, and it's his fastball which sets up the effectiveness of other pitches. Getting that curve working or adding a slider/sweeper or changeup are likely to help him, but he's making massive improvements already vs. last year. We got him for a setup guy who was already arb 2 this year. Jax is making a pretty solid conversion to a starter right now, too, but it's hard not to believe the Twins are going to easily win this one.
  5. bean5302
    Roden was literally just activated from a two month IL stint when the Twins called up Fedko to replace Outman. While I agree the Twins shouldn't waste a roster spot on a guy with a role of pinch runner, occasional defensive replacement, they've been doing that for years now. If your argument is Fedko shouldn't have been called up because he's not MLB worthy, I'd agree. His expected performance in AAA is league average, and that's where he'll settle after he's demoted. He'll almost certainly turn right back into a pumpkin just like DaShawn Keirsey did. If your argument is this front office is poor at roster management; wasting a roster spot on a guy who will only play 5% of the time, I'd also agree. If your argument is the Twins should have called up Roden (who was literally activated from what might as well have been a 60 day IL trip that day, I'd say I disagree since Roden would be rusty as the Titanic.
  6. bean5302
    It's not based on 17 plate appearances. It's based on 1,866 plate appearances across 6 years in the minors, plus how he's looked at the plate in his 17 plate appearances at the MLB level. Fedko struggled at levels he should have dominated, he slowly moved up the ladder and continued to frequently struggle. xwOBA is a lot more valuable than wOBA when it comes to evaluating how a player looks vs. traditional values. Players with talent do not follow this pattern. Top college draft picks make MLB in 1-2 years. Legit prospect college picks make MLB in 3-4 years. Fedko was not called up because the Twins were planning on playing him as a regular. He was called up to be a defensive replacement in CF when Buxton wasn't playing, to be a pinch runner and give the regulars a spot of rest when deemed necessary. That bit player role is exactly why the Twins chose Fedko. They didn't want to waste service time of legitimate prospects filling a role like Fedko's being asked to fill. Harsh, but truth.
  7. bean5302
    "Decent speed" does not make an average to above average center fielder. Looking at Jenkins' metrics and comparing them to other International League Center Fielders, he looks stretched in CF. This makes sense based on Fangraphs' evaluation of his speed as a 55 grade guy with a 4.25 home to first base time and a 28 feet per second max sprint speed. Can Jenkins cover CF? He's probably not going to be a good center fielder, but he might be serviceable there. How much value is there in Jenkins playing in CF vs. Jenkins in right field? Right field is -7.5 runs. Center field is +2.5 runs. So 1.0 WAR difference from a full season positional adjustment, give or take. That's probably the difference between serviceable play in CF vs. excellent play in RF. Honestly, he's probably about like younger Max Kepler. Could he cover it? Maybe. Should he cover it? No. Aside from that, his bat projects below league average right now at the MLB level.
  8. bean5302
    Hey, what do you know? Another article calling for an analysis of Tom Pohlad's comments from January!
  9. bean5302
    Austin Martin started off as a primary shortstop in the minors for the Twins. That doesn't make him a shortstop. Jenkins is not best suited to CF, and his fielding metrics in AAA do not compare favorably to other CF's there, though he can probably handle it as a below average fielder there.
  10. bean5302
    Can you do the math on that for me? What player does Varland replace on the roster? The bullpen hasn't been a crippling reason the Twins have actually lost games this year. The Twins are tied for 16th in losses attributed to relievers and are above average at 13th in blown saves. Middle of the road. Sure, the bullpen has imploded on many occasions, but rarely were the Twins looking like they were going to win the game when it happened. As others have pointed out, as a ground ball pitcher, Varland wouldn't have been as successful with balls slow-rolling past Brooks Lee or bouncing off the glove of Luke Keaschall. Lets suppose Varland turns around two games (plausible) and the Twins are now +0.5 games on the Wildcard... Who cares? It's July, not the end of September. The Twins front office boldly traded basically their entire bullpen and then did NOTHING to address the black hole this offseason. That's the issue. Not trading what looked like a probable middle reliever or at best, a setup guy.
  11. bean5302
    2026 Kyler Fedko = 2025 DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. This was the expected outcome for Fedko. He's overmatched at the plate vs. MLB pitchers. Fedko's literally whiffing on fastballs in the zone. Players debuting after age 25 are almost never successful because of a talent gap, but its dramatically easier for a player at the cusp to keep chasing their dream now that it's not so financially crippling. Polish and hard work can carry a player a long way in the minors. It's not enough at the MLB level. The elite talent needs to be there, and Fedko doesn't have that. He's still one of the best baseball players in the world, but it doesn't take 6 years in the minors for a college draft pick with MLB talent to force themselves onto an MLB roster. It just doesn't. The Twins also viewed Fedko as a long shot, but with potential value as a pinch runner, defensive replacement, occasional spot starter they weren't concerned with burning clock/options. Fedko is a fun story, but folks expecting him to be good at the MLB level were really setting themselves up for disappointment. There are better every day options like Roden. If the Twins were absolutely out of it and not trying or they had moved on from Martin, traded Larnach and Buxton was definitely going to be out for a month plus, sure, start Fedko more. The Twins are trying to win ball games right now. Fedko's not getting playing time unless he earns it right out of the gate.
  12. bean5302
    a wRC+ 119 is not impressive in the minors for a corner outfielder.
  13. bean5302
    Accuracy is important. The rest is not necessary for a strong arm to have value in Right Field. The reason strong arms are valued in right field has to do with controlling the advancement of runners from 1st to 3rd on singles or from 2nd to third on fly outs. The rest of your post has to do with whether a fielder is a RF or a CF.
  14. bean5302
    Love seeing the Twins beat the Yankees in New York :D
  15. bean5302
    Average to above average speed and a cannon for an arm. He has all the physical tools he needs. Keep in mind, I'm a fan of Wallner's, and I think he could be good.
  16. bean5302
    That's pretty presumptuous, indeed. In fact, I'd say it's downright unreasonable, but lets presume all three players have a bat that plays at the MLB level and look at his from a pure defensive alignment perspective. That makes things really easy. Lee plays 2B, Culpepper plays 3B and Houston plays SS. Lee is an unplayable SS, and he's not going to be a good 3B with a weak arm. He's not rangy so he's not well suited to 2B, either, but it's going to be the position he's best suited to play. Culpepper is probably an average-ish SS, maybe a tick below, but he should be a plus 3B with a strong arm. Houston is likely an elite SS.
  17. bean5302
    SWR cleared waivers. Nobody wanted him.
  18. bean5302
    It all depends on what you think a #3 or #4 or #5 starter actually is. If you think a #5 starter is a Chris Paddack who isn't worth a roster spot, but keeps getting trotted out to the mound by an incompetent front office trying to wipe the egg off their face, then you're right. I'm talking about guys you actually want on the mound, not guys you play because you have to. For relievers from 2023-2025 who pitched 140+ innings (98 total relievers), adjusted for 60 innings 1 averaged 1.9 fWAR or higher 3 averaged 1.7 fWAR or higher 7 averaged 1.5 fWAR or higher 17 averaged 1.2 fWAR or higher 28 averaged 1.0 fWAR or higher BaseballTradeValues has gotten pretty good with ballparking trade value. (Expected WAR) * $8.0MM - (Expected SalaryMM) = Surplus Value There's a little wiggle room on the 8.00 factor, but the end result doesn't vary a lot since relievers don't generate a lot of WAR.
  19. bean5302
    The Twins are among the worst teams in baseball when it comes to Right Field production this year. Wallner's been raking since his first 5 ice cold games over in St. Paul He owns a 25.8% K rate in AAA. His bat is his calling card, and he's only had a handful of games with a cumulative OPS under 1.000 since May 21st. A big problem is he hasn't been willing to work on his defensive value, and it's been so bad he's an obvious burden on the team if his bat isn't hot. It's clear the Twins consider Wallner MiLB roster filler at this point, but it's equally clear this front office is cowardly after having screwed up so many times so they're unwilling to move Wallner as well.
  20. bean5302
    Houston is going to have a heck of a test at AA, but the defense is almost certainly going to play well. He could be a league average hitter and still produce 3 WAR. We should know more by the end of August as his plate appearances hit 150+ if he remains healthy.
  21. bean5302
    I do, which is how I also know 7.1 innings doesn't mean anything.
  22. bean5302
    Except how to hit. It'd be nice if he could hit. It'd also be nice if he could prove he's got more than a 5-10 game hot streak between injuries from running full speed and shoulder checking walls and stuff.
  23. bean5302
    YEAH!!!! Keep your facts and logic to yourself, @DJL44!
  24. bean5302
    Strikeout Pathetic ground out Strikeout Soft line out Home run (hung two sliders middle-middle back to back) Double (not a terrible pitch fastball) Horrible, horrible walk. Hard single (good pitch, and good sequence) Double (again, not a bad pitch at all) Strikeout High fly out At bat by at bat looked good to start. He left back to back sliders middle-middle on the HR and next at bat gave up a hit on a first pitch fastball which caught a bit too much of the plate, but I don't think it was a bad first pitch. Honestly, I think he pitched poorly to 2 hitters. Lots of bad luck for the rest.
  25. bean5302
    Starting as a reliever reduces experience by 70% which makes learning that much harder. Players start as relievers if they cannot be effective starters. MLB is not for learning how to pitch. That's why Rule 5 guys almost never stick. MLB is for guys who've already figured out their stuff, but need to learn what stuff they have works best against big leaguers, and to polish command. More innings, more pitches = more experience.
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