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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The Twins were losing money. They cut costs. I'm not excited about it as a season ticket holder, but I do understand why they did it. How they cut costs was up to Falvey. Falvey elected to keep Kepler, Farmer and took on substantial salary when trading Polanco. He signed a has-been 1B he didn't need and who can't hit right handed. None of that was necessary. It amounted to squandering the money he had to spend because Falvey is like a dog at a squirrel park. That's the point. He spends money poorly.
  2. bean5302
    Since the Twins have lost money 3 of the past 4 years...
  3. bean5302
    I'd give the F.O. probably a C grade for trades. To me it seems like the front office does pretty poorly when it comes to finding legitimate suitors in the first place. Most of the trades worth talking about are as follows: I through a grade in for the Twins/Partner (F/A) Hughes, Comp B -> Villalobos, Cash (D/B) Berrios -> Martin, SWR (A/A) Arraez -> Lopez (F/A) Steer, CES, Hajjar -> Mahle (A/F) Donaldson, IKF, Rortvedt -> Urshela, Sanchez (C/A) Graterol, Raley, Comp B -> Maeda, Camargo, Cash (B/B) Petty -> Gray, Peguero (B/A) Escobar -> Duran, Maciel, De La Trinidad (A/F) Odorizzi -> Palacios (A/F) Cruz -> Ryan, Strotman (D/D) Rogers, Rooker -> Paddack, Pagan, Medina Keeping in mind trades have varying team control years and varying salaries, there have been awful trades, great trades, and mediocre ones. There are trades which took years and years to get a good return, and trades which went from great to bad. C average for both the Twins and the teams on the other side. Some of the biggest deals were ones the Twins didn't make they were expected to or really should have made, but Falvey has often seemingly struggled to find suitors like for Buxton and Kepler in previous years.
  4. bean5302
    Oh really? Seems to be Joe Pohlad hinted at Falvey's tenure with the Twins as being pretty dicey last year. Personally, I think the payroll constraint was more of a "show me what you can do if we're not bailing your decision making out with record setting payrolls"
  5. bean5302
    Half as good? Every team other than the Rockies are projected as at least 50% as much fWAR as the Twins' rotation. It all depends on how you look at guys like Ryan, Paddack and Ober. None of them have a career FIP south of 3.93. If you believe they're better now than what they have been over their career (back end starters), then the Twins are in good shape. If you don't believe they'll all be better than their careers this year, the Twins aren't in nearly as good of shape.
  6. bean5302
    Blaming the ownership for Falvey's spending habits is cruel. It's like giving a college kid $100 for groceries and stuff for the week only for them to spend $95 on a vintage mushroom lamp that looks cool in the dorm room.
  7. bean5302
    Seattle didn't want Desclafani. In fact, it's a matter of record they were expecting to use him in the bullpen. They took Desclafani (and cash) because the Giants didn't want him. The Mariners then traded Desclafani to the Twins (who also didn't want him) to balance out the cash from Seattle taking on Polanco's contract. Nobody wanted Desclafani, he was just a pawn in a cash game. All that aside, the offseason was largely a failure for Falvey. Address CF backup for Buxton - Fail Address lack of front line starters - Fail Address lack of RH 1B/DH power bat - Fail Drop payroll - Pass Margot has no upside and extremely limited floor over Castro and Martin. Santana is weak from the right side of the plate. Desclafani was a 50/50 shot at MLB caliber rotation arm. Like so many times in years past, Falvey wasted money, IMHO.
  8. bean5302
    If Martin had a career similar to Span it'd be outstanding since it's well beyond his projection at this point. Like most light hitters, Span (with an ISO 50% higher than the .090 the writer was talking about) accumulated his value by being a starting player covering a defensive premium position. Not many players have more than 2-3 seasons where they produce significant value with ISO numbers below .090. If you're looking at fWAR, the players with significant value over the past decade usually have a totally broken OAA defensive metric pushing their value up in one season. Billy Hamilton (CF), Jarrod Dyson (4th OF), Alcides Escobar (SS). Those are the guys I saw who pulled off the sub-.090 ISO and were reliably decent contributors in the past decade. 3 of 550 players who qualified at over 1,000 plate appearances. Not great odds. Martin isn't close to any of them in terms of defensive chops. I do think Martin has a chance to stick at the MLB level, but he will need to be better than projected at the plate to do so.
  9. bean5302
    Dobnak not being on the 40 man is a bit of a hurdle for him getting selected. Given his recent year performances, he's got a pretty narrow margin of opportunity, and the ankle injury really wiped a lot of his chance out already. Despite people knowing his name, Dobnak has never pitched more than 50 innings in a season at the MLB level, and he's 4 years removed from his last good season. It'd be really nice news for Dobnak to put it together and find a way to be effective, but I'm not holding my breath.
  10. bean5302
    We need Dr. Who and that sonic screwdriver thing he can probably just point at Royce Lewis and fix him.
  11. bean5302
    Prato will undoubtedly see a bunch of outfield time in St. Paul.
  12. bean5302
    Austin Martin has mostly been an infielder, and he was a very good 2B last year when he finally got some static reps there. Martin primarily played 2B because of his UCL sprain and the Twins wanted to limit his high effort throwing. 1. Martin's bat does not project as plus anymore. There's no power which has developed. That severely limits his value in the corners. 2. Martin's speed has always been considered iffy to a stretch for covering CF. Yes, he steals a ton of bases, but base stealing is more about instincts than elite speed (Brian Dozier). 3. Martin's arm has never been good enough for SS so it's also not ideal for 3B. 4. 2B is the most valuable position Martin can be expected to play. Having him play there, if he excels, makes him a far more valuable trade piece.
  13. bean5302
    I expect a resurgence from Sale this year. His velocity is back, and I think he'll be smarter in his activities to limit the injuries. I think the 90's Braves rotation formula is back. They're going to be absolutely dominant on the mound, and those teams will always make the playoffs, and always be dangerous once they're in the playoffs. Only injuries will derail them.
  14. bean5302
    Like everybody else, I expect Martin to be the call if Lewis went to the IL. That said, it was for different reasons as I think Martin has kind of slipped into Nick Gordon circa 2021 status. We'll see if they call his number with any regularity or if he just rides the bench for the most part. I am pretty curious to see what his sprint speed numbers look like. I know he steals a lot of bases, but his run tool never graded out as more than 50/55 as I recall.
  15. bean5302
    I guess the below MiLB average production was more important to me than the walks... which disappeared at the MLB level. He doesn't take professional at bats against LHP. He takes desperate at bats against LHP, hoping they miss their spots and walk him because he can't hit the pitches.
  16. bean5302
    How big of a sample size? His AA splits looked horrible, too, and he was below average against lefties even in the low minors. 2021 = .938 vs .831 (league average in A ball was about .725, A+ was about .740) 2022 = 1.031 vs .649 in 134 plate appearances (league average hitting in AA was about .750) vs. LHP in 2022 at AA in 134 plate appearances .210/.373/.276 OPS .649. 20.1% BB, 26.9% K, .066 ISO vs. LHP in 2023 at AAA in 43 plate appearances .333/.442/.361 OPS .803, 16.3% BB, 18.6% K, .028 ISO vs LHP in 2023 at MLB in 48 plate apperances .196/.229/.217 OPS .447. 4.2% BB, 33.3% K, .022 ISO That's over 200 plate appearances at AA/AAA/MLB. Julien has utterly no power whatsoever against LHP and MLB pitchers don't miss the strike zone like MiLB pitchers do so Julien's BB rate vanishes. The likelihood Julien isn't going to be a black hole against LHP at the MLB level is very low. I suspect he'll continue to get sporadic plate appearances against them, but there's not much reason to expect him to transform at the plate.
  17. bean5302
    Prielipp underwent surgery at the end of July, 2023. An aggressive timetable looks probably about like this: 4 months, short toss 20-40 feet (December-January) 6 months, medium toss 40-60 feet (February) 7 months, long toss 60-150 feet (March) 8 months, light/medium effort off mound (April-May) 10 months, bullpens (June-July) 12 months, full activity, pitching in minors (August) This assumes pretty much everything goes great with no setbacks.
  18. bean5302
    Remember that time when Royce Lewis completely tore his ACL and then completed his training run? He's ridiculous. That said, I think you're dead on about Lewis' injury being minor here.
  19. bean5302
    It's not possible. Everybody knows Spring Training stats are the most important values to predict regular season performance!
  20. bean5302
    Julien was totally inept vs. left handed pitching last year and his splits in the minors were pretty awful, too. At the plate vs. lefties last year, Julien's walk rate dropped from against RHP 17.2% to 4.2% against LHP. He also had an 80% ground ball rate vs. LHP last year. Now, we're only talking about 1/2 the sample size needed to start really stabilizing, but Julien was totally and completely overwhelmed against lefties.
  21. bean5302
    From an athleticism standpoint, Castro will be superior to Farmer at any position other than catcher. Castro arm 88.8mph, sprint 28.6 ft/sec, range OAA +2, career 3B UZR above average Farmer arm 80.1mph, sprint 26.5 ft/sec, range OAA +2, career 3B UZR neutral, but he's lost a ton of speed. Neither Castro, nor Farmer have a lot of experience playing 3B, and neither one of them have been great at it. With repetition comes familiarity. Repetition breeds instinctive play where the player really doesn't even have to think about it. They know the order of operations. Where to stand after catching/throwing the ball. Which plays they can make, which plays they can't, etc. Digging through the history, Farmer's probably a tick better at reaction time and positioning. Plusses and minuses to each playing the position. Which player getting daily reps helps the Twins the most? Castro's also an outfielder and they benched Wallner for Castro yesterday, opting to put the poor hitting Margot at DH. I'd prefer to see Castro in an every day role to get a better feel for his bat. Was last year an aberration at the plate or is it a trend he can sustain? I think everybody knows what to expect of Farmer.
  22. bean5302
    The most glaring question in all of this is how were Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa so good at the plate when their spring training results were so mediocre?
  23. bean5302
    My best guess is when he had that awkward ankle roll, he reflexively overcompensated and the sudden reaction led to the injury. I don't think it's "running" or "stretching" related. For us normal people, it looks like he "tweaked it" so hopefully he didn't hurt it that bad at all. As of right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see him back for the Dodgers series.
  24. bean5302
    Because players are who they are and not always who we want them to be? The list of rookie one year wonders is long as the ocean is wide in MLB. You're downplaying the discrepancies. 55pts of OPS is an absolute chasm in terms of value. Julien may take a step forward, but he's at least as likely to take a step backwards in terms of results. wRC+ 110-115 is still very valuable if Julien can be a solid defender at 2B. Dozier's razor thin margin of error was fly ball distance. He had warning track +3 feet power. When those 3 feet dropped off, it became just warning track power and Dozier's offense cratered. Dozier's weakness wasn't being a pull hitter (like most power hitters are). The weakness was "barely" being a power hitter in the first place. Julien struck out at the same rate as Wallner last year. While he's vaunted for his plate discipline, Julien gets rung up on strikes an awful lot (bottom 8% of MLB) because he knows he can't hit pitches at the corners. There's a reason Julien's approach is so unique... He's on the razors edge. Maybe he can make it work long term. Maybe he can make an adjustment to his swing to expand his options. He may grow into a totally different kind of hitter and blow the lid off everybody's expectations. Right now, the glowing expectations for him exceeding even the results that don't track with the advanced predictive metrics publicly available today feel pretty optimistic to me.
  25. bean5302
    Knoblauch has nothing in common with Lee. Knoblauch wasn't a switch hitter, he walked about 50% more than he struck out, he had elite speed and he was an elite fielder. Chuck earned his value with his glove early on, and after he probably started juicing, with his bat and glove at his peak. Brooks Lee doesn't profile as any of those things, and especially hopefully not the juicing part.
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