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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    It's hard to invest much in this discussion when you're comparing Willi Castro to borderline Hall of Famers like Phillips and Zobrist. Whit Merrifield, though? Sure, I think Castro could have a 99% ceiling of a Whit Merrifield-ish career at 20 WAR with a peak of 3.0-3.5 annual WAR or so, but even his 90% ceiling is Eduardo Escobar. So what if Castro does hit his 90-95% potential ceiling? Castro needs to be: A) Good enough to be an every day player. (check, if he hits his near ceiling) B) Substantially better than any other cheap option the Twins have to be that every day player. (here's the problem) The Twins have: Buxton, Kirilloff, Martin, Larnach, Wallner, DeKeirsey, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Rodriguez as current or pipeline outfield options who could be on the Twins after next year. The Twins have: Julien, Martin, Lewis, Correa, Miranda, Prato, Lee, Keashall, and Schobel as current or pipeline infielder options who could be on the Twins after next year. The same arguments against spending on high floor free agent/veteran guys like Carlos Santana, Kyle Farmer, and Manuel Margot apply to Willi Castro once he reaches free agency. Castro is not a super star player, and there is absolutely nothing in his history to suspect he ever could be. It's foolish to spend $5-10MM a year on a utility player when you're on a budget because they're usually available for league minimum out of your farm system. Is Willi Castro at 2.5-3.0 WAR worth $7-10MM more than Walker Jenkins at $780k or Brooks Lee at $780k?
  2. bean5302
    As somebody who left this site for 1 or 2 years, I can't agree with the comments about increased negativity here. I find it refreshingly less hostile, more mature, and more optimistic than it used to be. I'll be blunt... it felt like there were cliques on the site a couple years ago. I forums tended to be very polarized, and like users tended to go out of their way to support their clique or disparage their "enemy." I find the forums, posts and content to be much more moderate, and much more thoughtful in 2024. While the forums themselves may have less traffic, I also think the posts spawn site content and food for thought, even if the posts don't necessarily often have a lot of comments on them directly. I think it also provides an area for users who might be interested in furthering their involvement with the site as potential future writing talent. They're fine. I do still like the dead horse reaction...
  3. bean5302
    Polanco (1x AS), Altuve (8x AS, GG, MVP) and Torres (2x AS) were all at .975 last year. A fielding percentage of .975 at 2B is fine if the player has range, and Martin does. The "low bar" is the entire International AAA League.
  4. bean5302
    It's almost never a good investment to keep players after they're slated to hit free agency. The exceptions are super star players and the faces of the franchise for marketing value. He appears to be about a league average bat with adequate defense, and though the Twins are having him focus on maximizing his strike outs to better fit Falvey's preferred method of reducing wear and tear on players bodies. By striking out, players can just walk back to the dugout with a scowl like a real bad*** instead of risking their health by having to run after putting a ball in play. Next year will be Castro's final year of arbitration, and if he repeats last year's performance, he's going to get expensive for a utility guy, probably clocking in somewhere around Farmer's $6MM mark. There really isn't a spot on the Twins' roster for Castro as a starter right now. It looks like Julien has claimed 2B with newly passable defense, Correa is cemented at SS and there are less expensive (and probably better) options for 3B like Lewis and Miranda. In the outfield, Castro won't be a big asset in the corners and Buxton is cemented into starting CF. The Twins would probably be better off parting with Castro before 2025, but if the organization cleans up the depth chart and there is a real need for Castro, it might not be bad to bring him back. Beyond 2025, I don't see Castro being a good fit for the Twins at all.
  5. bean5302
    Martin was one of the best 2B in the league last year.
  6. bean5302
    We saw Rodriquez in Spring Training. He's far from ready.
  7. bean5302
    Yeah, Martin is going to be seriously stretched in CF. He's about as fast as Max Kepler used to be (28.0 ft/sec). 60 grade speed, which is just enough to cover CF, but his arm is probably 45 grade. He does have good instincts, but he's more Jake Cave than Billy Hamilton out there. Willi Castro at least has the tools to play center field (speed/arm), though his instincts are rough.
  8. bean5302
    Nah. Acquiring Margot at all was questionable when there were free agent options like Michael A. Taylor on the market. The fact Margot can't cover CF anymore makes the trade straight up stupid.
  9. bean5302
    I think the 10 game winning streak has activated a safety relief valve for pent up frustration in the fan base, but a large contingent of fans are still pretty disappointed in what most consider perplexing, if not foolhardy, offseason strategy for the front office. The fact almost all the acquisitions and unexpected carryovers have started the season off cold as Lake Superior singing in her icewater mansion has led to the fanbase seeking a scapegoat. Regardless, it's never a bad time to evaluate a roster and Margot truly looks like he's the new Tim Anderson out there. To see a player fall off so quickly is strange, but it's not unprecedented. I'd be surprised if Margot's position was even on the warm seat at the moment, though.
  10. bean5302
    Julien, Martin, Farmer, Castro, Prato. They can all play 2B so 2B remains the lowest area of concern for the Twins.
  11. bean5302
    I think it's pretty hilarious, and it'd have a place. Obviously, the problem is for people who haven't been frequently visiting the site recently, they might not realize the horse has been severely beaten at length after its demise so I could see it being off-putting to newbies.
  12. bean5302
    He sure does. I'd demote him to Ft. Myers at this point.
  13. bean5302
    Must be a fun life to hope and dream for your team to suck and for all their options to underperform.
  14. bean5302
    Max Kepler will be entering his age 32 season, he's already had one of his frequent IL trips, and his batting performance is still below average on the year. If the season ended yesterday and Kepler put up this stat line: .250/.306/.364 OPS .670 wRC+ 93, he'd probably get a one year deal at $4-6MM or so. His plate performance, including this year, has him below league average 3 of the past 4 seasons, and his big calling card has been great RF defense, but that's in steady, and significant decline at this point. A reasonable guess for Kepler, if he were to repeat last year's performance is 2-3 years at AAV $12-15MM. Why would the Twins be so excited to bring back a 2-3 WAR right fielder on a significant contract? It would mean Emmanuel Rodriguez doesn't look ready, Wallner never rebounds, Larnach flops, and Martin is unable to match Kepler's defense and league average bat profile over the last few years.
  15. bean5302
    We're talking about 60 batted balls this year for Buxton, who will always be a very streaky hitter because he strikes out a ton, doesn't take walks and typically hits a lot of fly balls (and a lot of those are usually popups) where he depends on home runs. Just like you pointed out in the article. Because of his batted ball tendencies and the sample size we're working with, it doesn't take more than a handful of well hit balls to shift the expected outcomes for him pretty dramatically at this point. His 100 PA rolling xwOBA this year was fine for the first couple weeks, and then he started slumping. I expect he'll be fine as the same size expands. Right now, he's getting results, and hopefully he'll get some confidence and his timing will improve just like Willi Castro's has. I maintain Buxton is not, never has been, and never will be a legitimate MVP candidate now that he's in decline and age 30. He does not get on base, and there are plenty of center fielders who provide more value than he does like Trout, Judge, and Rodriguez in the AL alone. You still pushing the idea Buxton is an MVP caliber player is exactly what I'm talking about when I say how overrated Buxton has been. In a full year, Buxton is a 5-6 WAR player. That's great, perennial All Star caliber. It's not an MVP caliber player, not by a long shot. It's 60-70% of where he needs to be. When there was a .900-1.100 OPS center fielder like Mike Trout, .800 OPS doesn't get it done. Then there was a two way wonder, Ohtani. Donaldson and Altuve snuck in there for a couple years, but even they were much better than a full year Buxton would be. AL MVP Winner bWAR vs. Buxton vs. Buxton 150 G and percentage of WAR vs. MVP in 150 G (that he'll never ever play) 2015 = 7.1 vs. 0.4 vs. 3.3, 46% 2016 = 10.5 vs. 1.7 vs. 2.7, 26% 2017 = 7.7 vs. 4.9 vs. 5.0, 65% 2018 = 9.9 vs. (0.3) vs. (1.6), 0% 2019 = 7.9 vs. 3.0 vs. 5.2, 66% 2020 = 3.0 vs. 2.1 vs. N/A, 70% 2021 = 8.9 vs. 4.6 vs. 11.3, 127% 2022 = 10.5 vs. 3.9 vs. 6.4, 61% 2023 = 9.9 vs. 0.8 vs. 1.4, 14% 2021 was a complete aberration for Buxton in what was, yet again, a SSS for a very streaky hitter. It was never sustainable, and apart from that year, Buxton was never even close to MVP numbers even if projected to 150 games when he will never play that much.
  16. bean5302
    Minnesota. North Dakota. South Dakota. Iowa. Part of Wisconsin. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-blackout-restrictions-map-2023-baseball-games/m843wsljyvrrdmf50zjhusre
  17. bean5302
    Buxton got overhyped by writers and fan sites. It's not a surprise he's unable to live up to the "MVP!!!!" type of production he's now expected to show. That said, it's strange to see an article like this now when he's been raking for the past couple weeks. Last 10 games .324/.395/.529 OPS .924 wRC+ 167. 5.3% BB, 26.3% K. Buxton is coming around and I expect he'll produce at the wRC+ 120ish level on the season, which is the kind of hitter he's been from 2019-2024.
  18. bean5302
    Weeeeelllllllll, you kinda got a chicken-egg sorta thing going on. Would people have cut the cord if cable companies hadn't been the absolute worst companies in the history of the universe? Monopolies, dramatic price increases, forced packages, overall absolutely MISERABLE customer experiences. Cable companies make the DMV look like paradise. MLB's blackout policy shares in the blame by not just tying themselves to cable, but basically permanently welding themselves to cable (blackouts, no streaming), MLB team owners being a decade behind the curve of understanding what fans want (improved access and game day experience), and the MLBPA seizing the opportunity to weaponize MLB's attempts to improve the game day experience once MLB actually figures something out (faster pace, more action, etc). The whole thing has been an exercise in the combination of arrogance and stupidity.
  19. bean5302
    I expect Lopez to be the kind of pitcher he's been historically, and I expect a lot of the concern here is from the constantly hyped and equally ridiculous "Cy Young Favorite" trope after his playoff performances last year made fan sites lose their minds projecting him to take about 17 steps forward for 2024. Lopez Career: 3.90 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.62 xFIP Previous 3 seasons (2021-2023): 3.57 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.40 xFIP Nowhere near Cy Young consideration, but definitely a guy you want starting in the playoffs.
  20. bean5302
    Comca$t isn't going to lose money or even a little profit to broadcast the Twins game. As a perennial winner of the "most hated company in America", Comca$t has an even greater level of monopoly, arrogance and disinterest in customers than Bally. MLB has done everything it possibly can to discourage expanding its fanbase, and the blackout rules are front of the line.
  21. bean5302
    The "stuff" talent level of pitchers at AAA is often lower than AA. The control and polish of most pitchers at AAA is much higher than AA. AAA is a significantly harder level than AA for pitchers and hitters. The biggest jump in MiLB is from A+ to AA in my opinion, with AA to AAA being the next hardest step up. Walk rates vary between AA and AAA for more reasons than just the robo ump, including the fact you have a lot of AAAA hitters with MLB experience drawing walks at AAA, and not all batters see an increase in walk rates. Brooks Lee, for example, saw his walk rate drop from 10.3% in AA to 8.9% in AAA last year. In addition, you're narrowing the field quite a bit as not all players reach AAA, and the pitchers who do spend time at AAA often need to work on their control and polish as a final step before MLB. Just blaming robo umps (which is tantamount to saying most umpires call a smaller strike zone than actual) doesn't seem realistic to me. Especially given how robo umps have only existed in all AAA for 2023. Rodriguez has very little left to prove at AA at this point with 528 plate appearances at the level and climbing all while owning a wRC+ of 145-205.
  22. bean5302
    Keep in mind with WPA, time frame counts as well as the percentage chance of winning or losing begins to oscillate with half innings especially towards the end of the game because even a single run in a 0-0 or 2-2 (for that matter) game makes a big change in win likelihood in say the 7th or 8th or 9th inning.
  23. bean5302
    The question on Rodriguez was not whether or he could hit at AA, it's whether he can produce at MLB. That depends on whether the BB% turns into hits or Ks because it sure as heck isn't going to stay north of 20% in the big show. Will he turn into .200/.275/.375 with a 10% BB and 50% K rate? Or will he turn into .275/.400/.500 with a 15% BB and 30% K rate? To know that, he needs a promotion to AAA sooner than I anticipated.
  24. bean5302
    Is there anybody who wouldn't take Martin over Margot at this point? I think everybody would, and picking up Margot really looks like a horrible move. His sprint speed is a miserable (relative to his historical speed) 26.9 ft/sec this year which means he's just not even an option in CF. Anything below 28.0 ft/sec is a liability in CF, and anything below mid 27s is a huge liability. Margot is officially a corner OF who can't hit at this point. Total debacle for a team which had a tight budget. Maybe Falvey will swallow his pride and DFA Margot if Larnach keeps hitting a little longer by proving he's able to recognize pitches better. Until then, I suspect Falvey will be unwilling to risk losing depth with some track record.
  25. bean5302
    .226/.294/.371 OPS .665 wRC+ 94. Bad batting average. Horrible on base percentage. Bad slugging percentage. Below average overall package. That being one of the best bats the Twins had is not only inaccurate, it isn't a good thing. Martin's great as a league minimum salary backup/utility type. A guy who can plug holes when injuries crop up who prevents the team from having to go out pay millions for guys like Margot. Certainly valuable, but in that 1-2 WAR role player category. Martin isn't the kind of guy you want as a first option on the depth chart at anything other than maybe 2B where his bat might play well enough, and his arm and range might play well enough to put up a 2 WAR season.
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