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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    It's an interesting article, and a specific thing I've thought about. The Twins have a few errors which have resulted from pitchers not catching or throwing the ball to first base this year. Every set of hands involved in the play is an increased risk of error from my standpoint. 1B more likely to run the ball back to first base rather than risk a toss/catch may have better results.
  2. bean5302
    I doubt Brooks Lee has more trade value than Jose Miranda right now. Lee and Gonzalez is definitely not getting it done. You'd have to toss in Festa at least. The Marlins aren't going to cash out on a pitcher without at least one quality pitching prospect in return.
  3. bean5302
    Interesting timing for this forum after a recent topic about the debate in reinstating Pete Rose and Joe Jackson. To be honest, this one feels a lot more like a formality in the investigation prior to the lifetime ban hammer incoming. Guess Marcano may not have been expected to have a sure fire notable MLB career, but he's probably headed to a foreign baseball league in the near future. Major League Baseball is currently investigating Marcano (knee) for a violation of the sport's gambling policy, which could result in a lifetime ban, Jared Diamond and Lindsey Adler of The Wall Street Journal Report report. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40271458/sources-padres-tucupita-marcano-faces-mlb-ban-betting
  4. bean5302
    Well, if Falvey hadn't burned $20MM of payroll on platoon/utility guys, he would have been able to bring in a front line starter. In regard to Luzardo, it's tough to say what he's worth. Probably about a surplus value of $50-60MM, which is a step over Berrios because of the extra control. Festa + Gonzalez + either Miranda or Julien probably gets it done. Also consider the Twins can expect to pack on double digits in the millions of salary next year and the year after.
  5. bean5302
    It's just two starts at AA and the hitters are making really poor contact against Morris. Either hitters will miss by a hair more and strike out or make contact hair better and crush some baseballs. Either way, we'll probably know more in 2-3 more games with Morris on the mound in the high minors.
  6. bean5302
    Pretty tough to hold a 5.1 inning performance against a guy (Spencer Bengard) as not being a "start" considering Bengard was pitching in the first inning on normal rest. Zebby Matthews was definitely the right call here. Let's hope he keeps it up at AA, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in AAA by the end of the year if he keeps dealing like this. He'll certainly pass David Festa on my Twins prospect list if he does. Morris is getting results, but it's tough to believe in his 4.5 K/9 at AA over the past couple games. The batted ball data says tons of grounders and pop ups so the batters might just be getting lucky touching a piece of Morris' pitches, and if that's the case, the K's might tick up a bit to a belief worthy level.
  7. bean5302
    Because Lewis is the likely face of the franchise and best player on the Minnesota Twins who has earned a static position. It's uncommon to shift around super stars for average players. Also, Miranda is not a good third baseman not only due to his limited range, but a weak arm.
  8. bean5302
    Eeles is an interesting prospect for sure. He was pretty successful in Indy league baseball after being overlooked in college. I'd suspect the Twins will be moving him up rapidly given his lack of pedigree and age. I'm a little surprised they started him off so low as Indy leagues like American Association would be at A+/AA level IMHO. Several former fringe-y MLB guys and players who made it to AAA on Eeles' Chicago Dogs team last year. Nice to see Wallner's bat waking up. Last 10 games: .235/.381/.677 OPS 1.058, great, but more importantly, the 16.7% BB vs. 21.4% K rate is the sign I've been looking for. Seems he's out of his own head at this point. I hope it continues and he's learned something through this adversity. If he did, I think he'll be an All Star caliber player going forward. If he hasn't learned the mental toughness he'll need, I expect he'll be a fringe guy.
  9. bean5302
    Yeah, Miranda at the keystone would probably be a disaster. Can't figure the Twins would be nuts like that, haha.
  10. bean5302
    I absolutely would have demoted Kirilloff since I don't think he has a future in MLB. He's a AAAA guy who has an option and will be Arb2 non-tender material at the end of the year. I guess Falvey is desperate with Kirilloff, and the hope he can actually reproduce last year's aberration performance at the plate against RHP. I guess it could pay dividends in a trade deadline move if another team buys in on Kirilloff so we can dump him? I suppose Wallner is finally heating up in AAA (maybe he got over his mental yips at the plate?). It'll be interesting to see how long Kirilloff's leash is. Julien's batting average being .190 over the recent games doesn't bother me a ton. He's always going to be a low AVG guy because he strikes out 30-35% of the time. That was his MO last year, it'll always be his MO. You're talking about a guy who is still sporting a league average bat at wRC+ 99. There's just nothing left for him to prove in the minors. Either he's MLB caliber or he's not, and that's something he has to prove at the MLB level. Having a rough month happens to hitters, especially high K guys. Brooks Lee!!!! OMG Brooks Lee!!!! is a non-issue here. He's been in Rookie ball and Low A rehabbing, but I expect he'll be in St. Paul soon. He couldn't hold his own in AAA last year and he needs at least a couple months at the AAA level to prove he's legit... unless he's Royce Lewis out of the blue in 2022. Pushing Julien down to 2B in St. Paul means Brooks Lee probably doesn't get reps there.
  11. bean5302
    Billionaires are basically corporations for this conversation as owners operating "hands on" with MLB franchises is rare as it's not their typical expertise and MLB franchises are major companies on their own. Long term ROI (beyond 10 years) isn't the primary interest of a typical large corporation (absolutely any publicly held corporation) operating in recent history. Major corporations look at the following items: Current year earnings, 3 year earnings, 5 year earnings, 10 year earnings, 20/lifespan earnings for products/departments. Significant losses in the current year are extremely unfavorable (I cannot emphasize this enough), but they can in some circumstances be offset by the promise of enormous revenues which might help shore up underperforming branches of the company or ensure the company's viability in the next few years. It's a balance. 3 year is meh, 5 year is very important and 10 year is critical. Basically, executives will absolutely not accept losses in 3 or 5 years time. Beyond 10 years is nice and all that, but the executives won't be at the company anymore by that point so they don't care much. It's just about having some semblance of fiscal responsibility. The reason 5 and 10 years are so important is what's when a lot of executives will be planning on leaving the company, and they want that company stock to be valuable when they check out. I should note, baseball franchises operate a little differently, but the guidelines "billionaires" set for operating major corporations like the Minnesota Twins are going to be based on the owner's knowledge in running businesses. Losses for more than a year or two are just not going to happen unless the owner is chasing a dream before death (Padres recently, Tigers a decade ago, Athletics in the early 90s)
  12. bean5302
    Yes, based on the garbage metrics you're using. fWAR is junk if you're comparing several years for a pitcher. It's best used for explaining anomaly performances or predicting future performances. It's not based on what actually happened. Comparing multiple years of performances means you're comparing Lopez (who played all 3 years) to pitchers who left MLB or were rookies or were hurt. It's not apples to apples. If Lopez missed the rest of this season due to injury, would he then become a #4 or #5 pitcher if I selected 2023-2024 as the range of comparison where he was hurt? In any given year, Lopez's ACTUAL results place him in the 40-45 range for value which includes accumulated value of pitchers who've been injured or played less than Lopez has. On the mound, he gives the Twins performances typically on par with low end #2s.
  13. bean5302
    A couple weeks ago people were lamenting the fact Falvey even brought Castro back after an ice cold start to the season; oh how things have turned. Castro owns an xwOBA of .324 right now. Solid enough, a little better than league average, and right in line with his actual production last year so it seems reasonable to expect Castro to continue bringing a decent bat to the table. A good pickup after Detroit non-tendered him. He's been a butcher in CF which is a real shame because that's where he'd add the most value if his instincts were better. The Twins desperately need a 4th outfielder who can cover it in Buxton's frequent absences. As far as the future goes, if Castro puts up a 3+ WAR campaign, we can expect his arbitration costs are going to get pretty steep for a utility guy starting this offseason. He's not a superstar, but he looks to be a solid every day player.
  14. bean5302
    Yep. Cost controlled young pitching grows on trees around here.
  15. bean5302
    Like I said. 40-45 3 WAR pitchers per year. Lopez has been a 3 WAR pitcher recently.
  16. bean5302
    Sure, the Twins could make some stuff up. Of course, all teams in MLB were just put on notice regarding the Phantom IL trend. The Phantom IL debacle with the Mets just got their GM banned from baseball for a year.
  17. bean5302
    Using bWAR, Lopez has 12.2 WAR in his career, spanning roughly 6 seasons. 2 WAR pitchers are commonplace. There were about 75 of them last year. Over the past 3 seasons, Lopez has been roughly a 3 WAR pitcher. About 40-45 of those per year or so.
  18. bean5302
    It's an obvious choice of Kirilloff to me. No defensive value. Limited value at the plate. Never had a good season in his entire career. 2021 = 0.3 fWAR (Scrub) 2022 = (0.5) fWAR (AA player caliber) 2023 = 0.6 fWAR (Scrub) 2024 = 0.1 fWAR (Scrub) Not sure how much more people need to see of Kirilloff to come to the conclusion he's a bust, but I've seen plenty. In fact, if the season ended today, I'd non-tender him.
  19. bean5302
    Depends on the metric, and the sample as to where he's going to rank. He's got a career 3.95 ERA. Bailey Ober's is 3.84. Joe Ryan is 3.87. Chris Paddack is 4.27.
  20. bean5302
    Yeah!!!! Stop walking guys! Except Alcala didn't really have a problem with walking guys... He had a single bad game where Baldelli hung him out to dry for 48 pitches and he got sent down because he was going to be unavailable for probably the better part of a week after that. Seriously... a primarily SIRP who just dealt with major elbow issues before returning at the end of last year. FORTY EIGHT pitches.
  21. bean5302
    Glad to see a good start from Lopez as he could certainly use a few more. He hasn't been a consistent pitcher across his career, more a low end #2 or high end #3 than anything else. ERA / FIP, Percentage of Starts at 4.00 or less ERA 5.0+ innings 4/22 - 0.39 ERA / 1.66 FIP, 100% Starts 5/22 - 2.78 ERA / 3.73 FIP, 60% Starts 6/22 - 5.34 ERA / 4.65 FIP, 20% Starts 7/22 - 4.65 ERA / 3.92 FIP, 67% Starts 8/22 - 4.61 ERA / 4.43 FIP, 60% Starts 9/22 - 4.24 ERA / 3.55 FIP, 50% Starts 4/23 - 4.00 ERA / 2.87 FIP, 67% Starts 5/23 - 4.25 ERA / 2.51 FIP, 60% Starts 6/23 - 4.46 ERA / 2.40 FIP, 33% Starts 7/23 - 3.71 ERA / 3.82 FIP, 75% Starts 8/23 - 2.00 ERA / 3.37 FIP, 83% Starts 9/23 - 3.68 ERA / 2.71 FIP, 40% Starts 4/24 - 4.83 ERA / 3.92 FIP, 33% Starts 5/24 - 4.84 ERA / 3.70 FIP, 50% Starts He's doing just about what a person should expect he'd do based on his career.
  22. bean5302
    Nishioka canceled the last year of his guaranteed contract, saving the Twins $3MM, and he publicly apologized for his play. It also benefitted him because he was able to go back to Japan and play there in the top league, but for less money than the Twins would have been paying him. Ultimately, Nishioka probably regrets his MLB experience. It cost him his marriage, and it humiliated him. There was no "signing bonus" just the posting fee the Twins paid to negotiate with Nishioka, but that goes to the posting team in Japan, not the player. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/twins/2012/09/28/twins-tsuyoshi-nishioka-released-salary/1600231/#:~:text=Nishioka%2C a middle infielder for,-year%2C %249.25 million deal.
  23. bean5302
    Arm and shoulder fatigue can be legitimate issues. Just like lifting back to back days when you can tell your muscles just aren't responding the way they should. Whether or not the Phantom IL trip gets triggered probably depends a lot on the player's opinion. If Paddack doesn't agree there's any fatigue issue, it'd be a red flag. The Phantom IL debacle was set off by players complaining that teams were manipulating the rosters by creating fake injuries or putting people on 10 or 15 day IL trips for an injury or issue which only required a couple of days to address.
  24. bean5302
    You don't need to "play along" since it's not a game. I don't treat every single post I disagree with as trolling. :) It's not helpful.
  25. bean5302
    Feel free to take another look at Ober's AAA results. 2021 = 4 GS, 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.68 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 11.81 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 1.13 WHIP 2022 = 2 GS, 9.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 2.60 xFIP, 12.10 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 0.71 WHIP 2023 = 5 GS, 22.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 4.53 xFIP, 9.93 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.97 WHIP Louie Varland's last 4 AAA starts: 2024 = 4 GS, 20.2 IP, 6.53 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 8.71 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 1.60 WHIP Not missing bats, walking too many, giving up tons of hits. Varland might yet turn some things around, but he's not pitching well at all right now.
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