bean5302

Jose Miranda just continues to tear it up, and here's the kicker. Miranda's production was greater than his expected metrics early on, but just like Royce Lewis last year, that hasn't continued to be the case. As the year has worn on, Miranda's results are much more in line with actual production. The numbers he's putting up right now, and as of recent, have not been smoke and mirrors. Since 6/1 Exit Velocity 91.6mph (87%) Barrel Rate 10.4% (73%) Hard Hit Rate 45.8% (77%) Over his last 100 PA, he owns a .424 xwOBA (.457 actual). It's fun to watch!

short lived, LOL

You should take a look at Stuff+ on Fangraphs. It combines things like spin rate, direction, movement and the movement difference from fastball to, say, changeup. Festa's fastball overall is 104, a little better than average. His slider is even better at 120. The changeup, though. Offda. 66. That's not an MLB caliber pitch. I tend to feel Festa's fastball's complete lack of horizontal movement is going to be a problem for him, even if Stuff+ doesn't think so. If a hitter only has to pay attention to 1 axis, it feels like a pitch will be much easier to deal with. Still, Stuff+ is supposedly an excellent predictor in general. One quick correction. You don't want a 4 seam fastball to drop, you want it to "rise" even though that's technically impossible. Hitters are expecting a ball to curve downwards in an arc. When the spin of the fastball causes it to drop less than expected, it's harder to hit. League average drop rate is 13.4" The other issue for Festa is he's wild. He was clearly trying far too hard to avoid issuing walks (54% zone rate), but many of his pitches were still way outside the zone. He needs better control over his pitches, and he needs that changeup to work.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/jose-ramirez-grounds-out-third-baseman-royce-lewis-to-first-baseman-edoua Lewis is a fielding work in progress, but he has the tools to be an outstanding 3rd baseman. It's going to take reps. We haven't seen enough of Lee to say how good he'll be, but his ceiling is quite a bit lower than Lewis.

Not sure why you feel like normal back fractures involve spinal cord injury. The Twins should definitely avoid Luzardo. He's not what the Twins need, and he's going to be overly expensive.

Generally, arbitration looks at the previous 2 years. Since Arraez started his salaries much higher 2.1 -> 6.1 -> 10.0, he had a better starting point than Castro. With Castro at 3.3MM this year, more than doubling his salary in his final arbitration year gets tougher. I don't think Castro would make more than $8MM or so at 4 WAR. He is setting himself up for a potentially big free agent payday in 2027, though.

Lee is a poor runner (limited range), and his arm isn't as good as Lewis. Royce Lewis max throw speed 85.8mph this year, averaged 84.4 last year. Brooks Lee max throw speed 81.7mph. I loved the play Lee made with his off balance, bare hander of a throw the other day, but he simply doesn't have the physical tools Lewis does. Lee seems smooth and polished in the field, and he might be better than Lewis when it comes to errors, but you guys are really underestimating Lewis or overestimating Lee here. A little nitpick. Virtually nobody thought Brooks Lee was going much before #8. Keith Law, #7 CBS, #7 MLB, #5 Fangraphs, #8 ESPN, #7 Bleacher Report, #6 Prospects Live, #7

Is it or is it not fractures in his vertebrae? The term "stress reaction" is used to make micro-fractures sound better. Miami put Luzardo on the 60 day IL almost immediately. 4-6 weeks is 28-42 days, and Miami really wanted to move Luzardo for cost savings and trade assets. Moving him to the 60 day IL makes it clear this is a serious injury, but this type of injury Luzardo is expected to make a full recovery. Stress reactions are very common in runners, especially new runners who ramp up too fast. Got them shins a barkin' The first time I really looked into the stress reaction was good 'ol Miguel Sano. He gained a gazillion pounds, got moved to the outfield and literally broke his legs by running on them as a result. Stress reaction. A lot of his fans blamed a ball off the shin out of the batters box, but stress reactions are not acute type injuries. Broken back is more accurate, IMHO. It gives the injury a clear definition. Fractures in bone. I'm not sure what Nick Paparesta has to do with Jesus Luzardo's recovery from his injury? Lee Meyer is Florida's head trainer. You might take broken back to mean spinal cord injury, but they're not the same.

Unfortunately, Larnach's exit velocity, his barrel rate and hard hit rates are combined, average-ish over the past 150 PA. He had his flash in the pan, and he's been about 20% below league average on the production side of things since early May. A big part of that is a consistent .260-.270 on base percentage. Yeah, not AVG. His OBP has been consistently .260-.270 since early May because he stopped taking walks in order to reduce his K rate. I don't think Larnach is a 20% below league average hitter for the course of a season, but he's exactly who he was on a production level. League average bat, limited defensive value player. On the right team, that adds some value. I think he's probably a 1.5 WAR player over the course of a full year. Not ideal, but not a huge boat anchor. Since Larnach is out of options, his utility to the Twins is getting pretty thin.

I'm familiar with the concept of a stress reaction. Microfractures in bones. Generally related to chronic stress of the bones/over aggressive ramp up, etc.

Balazovic's pitches had little spin or movement. Just didn't have the stuff to be successful at AAA/MLB.

It's great to see Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez all back in the lineup at the same time. I don't think that's happened this year before now. He doesn't really have any time to get back on his roll before the All Star Break, but I expect Rodriguez will be in St. Paul after the trade deadline if he keeps hitting. Gonzalez will likely be in AA when Rodriguez gets his promotion which paves the easy way for Jenkins to move into Cedar Rapids. Payton Eeles, a24, starting off hot at AAA is fun to watch. He's now basically caught up to his peers who were drafted out of college ball. Eddie Julien must be stressed out about his situation as Eeles has already gotten a start at 2B with the Saints. I feel a Julien trade is likely in the cards.

It's a curious move to call up Wallner. Not saying he hasn't earned it, but he's not the type of AAAA depth guy the Twins would generally add for a handful of days. I do think Larnach is probably on the edge now. Larnach's last 40 G = .211/.269/.383 OPS .652, 7.6%BB, 20.0% K wRC+ 84 Exit Velocity 90.9mph (89.5mph MLB median, 71%) Barrel Rate 9.5% (8.7% MLB median, 57%) Hard Hit 39.0% (41.2% median, 41%) Those percentiles are compared against 143 MLB qualified hitters.

Basically, Miranda eliminated a lot of noise. Miranda's pre-swing last year: 1) Hands at eye level 2) Hands drop straight down to beneath shoulder 3) Hands arc half circle lower to higher back behind shoulder to prepare for swing. 4) Swing Miranda's pre-swing this year. 1) Hands shoulder at shoulder height. 2) Hands and shoulder cock back slightly 3) Swing

Miranda reminds me quite a bit of Luis Arraez at this point. Suspect defense, poor runner, great hit tool. Trades some elevated K rate for more power, but a lot of Miranda's hits look like Arraez's hits. Looping soft liners to the short outfield. I don't think Miranda will be long term defensive liability at 1B if he was an every day starter there.

The AL West should be interesting to watch. I could see the Astros moving Pressley if they falter. Not sure why everybody is so convinced the Twins will refuse to spend anything considering their TV deal is in place for this year, they're $25MM under last year's payroll, and they're a playoff team atm.

Yep. Marlins and Twins were picking 1-2. Florida wanted Camp, and they were worried the Twins would grab him so they arranged a deal with the Twins. Twins got their guy (Santana), plus $50k in cash. Santana was always going to be the Twins' pick.

The more accurate way of putting his injury is broken back. He's got a stress reaction (a bunch of microfractures) in his vertebrae.

I wasn't cherry picking. I added context. Btw, how's that AAA player who can't help replace Max Kepler, Brooks Lee looking?

It was a pretty nasty hammy pull so the Twins are bringing him along slow to try and prevent any significant aggravation. I was more concerned with his total lack of power for the first 80 or so plate appearances this year, but he's really turned it on lately. I don't think the Twins will keep him in Low-A too long if Jenkins sustains the hot production.

Lewis talked about the injury. https://www.mlb.com/news/royce-lewis-feels-loose-after-injury The doctors warned him of his elevated risk for this type of injury before the season began it seems. The info coming out about it does make me feel better about his future. Lewis: “I don't think we did anything wrong. I think we did everything right,” Lewis said. “I guess I'm just going to have to be here eight or nine hours before the game. Whatever it takes, I'll do it. I'm sure people are going to blurt out 'He's not eating right. He's not doing this.' I've made significant changes. I've spent a lot of money on my body. I've been doing everything I possibly can. If I could think of something I'd do it.” He added -- with a laugh -- that he’d even consider this drastic step: “If someone said, 'Hey, if you smoke cigarettes like Babe Ruth,’ and that'll work, then I'll do that too. I'll do whatever. I'm open to anything.”

1. Jansen - The Red Sox are listening to offers, but Jansen is going to be very expensive for a team who'd be in the playoffs today if the season ended. He's been an elite closer for 15 years and is having a prime like Renaissance this year. Jansen also doesn't like the idea of going to a team like the Twins who employ situational deployments. 2. Cruz - He's not even arbitration eligible until 2026. With 5 years of team control left, what possible reason could a building team have to deal him? Even if the Reds did decide to cash out on a reliever who can be dominant, the cost would be brutal. He was signed out of Indy League ball which is why his age doesn't make sense. 3. Yates - Texas is about to get deGrom, and Mahle back into the rotation, Scherzer just returned and the Astros have appeared soft. 8.0-8.5 GB right now, I guess I could see them selling on a closer at the deadline if they're 10.0 GB at that point, but with 2 months and a suddenly elite rotation to make up ground against a winnable division, it's going to take a big package for Yates. 4. Nardi - Not happening without an overwhelming package. Age 25, not even arb eligible with 5 years of team control left. The Marlins are trying to build, and Nardi is the kind of player they're going to want to hang on to. 5. Garcia - Yep. This is the first pitcher who is absolutely going to be dealt. He's a rental on a team with no hope of the playoffs at this point. Garcia's been excellent, but as noted, the 15 day IL for elbow soreness is lingering. He's supposed to pitch for their AAA club today so it's a good sign, and his MRI showed no damage. He's cheap in terms of salary so the ask is going to be pretty hefty. Think back to the Matt Capps trade where the Twins gave up Wilson Ramos, a top 100 prospect. Though Capps came with an extra year of control, Garcia is going to cost a top 6-10 prospect, if not higher. 6. Mears - The Rockies are not typically sellers and they've got 3 more years of team control over Mears. Aside from that, Mears isn't a great pitcher. He's got a pretty rough track record. Lots of walks, decent K rate, generates absolutely no pop ups. While his FIP is 2.95, the xFIP is 3.82. I just don't think he's a reliever which would be an upgrade. We've got Stewart (maybe?), and Varland in the minors. I still think they're likely our bullpen enhancements.

Wallner is a far superior fielder to Margot, sorry. Margot has been terrible out there and he doesn't have the physical talent to overcome his errant play anymore. UZR/150 LF = -15.6 this year, backed up by -3 OAA in 165 innings. The trend for Margot on UZR/150 is nice and linear, and bad if you're arguing for his defensive prowess. OF overall from 2020-2024 = 9.5, 3.7, (0.2), (7.4), (12.1). Matt Wallner was league average last year in terms of UZR/150 in combined LF and RF as much as people hate on him, DRS is +2 for the year in the OF. OAA isn't so happy with him, but combining the metrics paints a picture of him being about average-ish. He's awkward looking in the field, and he boots a ball now and again, but he's deceptively fast. Fast enough to cover CF if he had the instincts for it, and his arm is a weapon. Margot is likely the worst outfielder on the Twins right now.

xwOBA can be a great metric, but like a lot of metrics, it can be misleading in isolation. Like How Kepler used to have a terrible actual wOBA vs. his expected because of how extreme the shift was deployed (effectively) against him. If a player has extreme batted ball tendencies, defenses will shift accordingly, and the results of those shifts make an impact on actual production. Depending on the stadium in which the player is taking their plate appearances, it can also impact the results. For example, Target Field is a poor stadium for left hander home runs due to the tall right field wall. What would normally be a home run based on exit velocity and launch angle turns into a single or double off the wall at Target Field. That's not really "luck" related. Trevor Larnach hits the snot out of the ball! Ehhhh, not really. Since the beginning of June, Larnach is averaging an exit velocity of 89.0mph, which is just league average. Larnach had a blistering start to the year, and through mid May, he was really crushing it. From that point on, it was a steady trend down which correlated with his performance against breaking balls regressing back to what it used to be. Larnach's changed approach at the plate to be more aggressive was met with an effective corresponding change by pitchers. It's not like Larnach is a bad hitter overall, he's just a league average hitter. Given his 900 plate appearances at the MLB level, I need to see more than a hot 80 plate appearances to convince me much has changed.

Reminds me of a hilarious Colorado Rockies commercial from years ago.