bean5302

Well, to be fair, Joe Pohlad is not an owner of the Twins. The ownership group is Jim, Bill, and Bob. Joe Pohlad is the spokesperson/facilitator for ownership. Saying Joe is an owner is like saying the press secretary is the president.

Here is a list of the player who had the most plate appearances at every given position: C - 339, Jeffers 1B - 577, Santana 2B - 279, Julien 3B - 292, Miranda SS - 361, Correa LF - 184, Larnach CF - 366, Buxton RF - 129, Wallner DH - 118, Lewis* *Larnach also led the team in PA at DH, Lewis was #2 at DH at 119 PA. Do you see Castro on that list? No because he wasn't the starter at any position on the team.

I will continue to advocate the position somebody's positional flexibility can be summed up based on how much performance loss the team sees when switching from the starter to Castro vs. the normal backup. If Castro were a full season player (assuming he could handle the position health-wise), here's what I'd expect he'd produce. Defensive Rating-ish DRS/UZR/OAA C* - 1.0 WAR, Has not played, project Awful/Awful/Awful 1B - 1.5 WAR, Has not played, project Neutral/Neutral/Neutral 2B - 2.5 WAR, Awful/Poor/Neutral 3B - 3.0 WAR, Neutral/Plus/Plus SS - 3.0 WAR, Poor/Poor/Neutral LF - 2.5 WAR, Awful/Poor/Neutral CF - 2.0 WAR, Awful/Awful/Awful RF - 3.0 WAR, Excellent/Plus/Neutral DH - 1.0 WAR, N/A *Castro would be the most offensively valuable catcher on the team, hands down. He's got a strong enough arm, and umpires have gotten pretty good with the strike zone. Castro would have like... a lot of passed balls. Maybe -20 runs as a catcher defensively? He'd still be better than Christian Vazquez, but Castro would break down almost immediately because of the extreme load on the legs so it's a moot point. Castro is not a typical utility player. His talent is being wasted by the Twins. Instead of giving Castro every day time at a position when he has the tools to become good or better defensively at every position on the field, Baldelli deploys him as a utility player. As to how much utility he really adds, compare value to the backup.

What's fun about these types of excuses for player performance is we can test it a bit by using Statcast Metrics in Fangraphs and BaseballSavant. Mountcastle hit 13 HR last year playing 1/2 his games in Oriole Park. If he played all his games at Target Field, he'd literally have hit 15 HR. As far as changing his approach to use more of the field, I don't see compelling evidence of that. Since the Orioles are rolling back changes to their left field which should help Mountcastle a bit, but unless Mountcastle fixes his swing to reduce the grounders, I don't think he's due for a big positive swing up. He's a wRC+ 110 kind of hitter, heavily limited by his inability to take walks. He's honestly very similar to Jose Miranda IMHO. Now, in regard to what it would cost to get a guy who isn't likely to outhit Jose Miranda, BTV says +9.2 MM in value so a relatively low value package should get the job done. Jose Miranda is +16ish in value for reference.

Pretty common for guys to lose 1mph on average EV from AAA to MLB. Max for Eeles was 107.0mph. You're right that very few MLB hitters do well at 85-86mph EVs range, but there are a couple. Arraez, Kwan, Altuve. Eeles' batted ball data shows 50% GB rate and a 17% pop up rate on fly balls. Both would traditionally be very poor indicators. Given his age, fringy batted ball data, and the scouting reports, I think Eeles would sneak into my top 20, but he'll need to do more to rise above that. Of course, if Eeles does a lot more, he'll probably get called up and fall off the prospects list either through losing rookie status or flopping.

Correct. https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/incentive-clause

High draft pick pedigree status. Teams always seem willing to grant additional opportunity and more resources to high rounders. Probably a function of trying to reclaim sunk costs.

Detroit would have been over the moon if Baez would have been available at league minimum on a one year contract.

I'm super concerned at how these signings are going to take playing time away from Anthony Prato. I mean, he's earned playing time considering his 2023 was clearly proof he figured everything out and he was just a late bloomer. I'm sure the .387 BABIP for Prato was going to hold consistent, just like that .370 BABIP for Keirsey is a sign of stable production.

Eeles definitely needs some time to prove out his game in AAA, but the 260 PA sample is encouraging. I suspect he's going to be deployed as a utility infield guy rather than at a static position. 2B-SS-3B. How much SS time probably depends on what veteran the Twins acquire for depth and how they feel about giving Holland a full time SS position to start the season. He's ranked a little too low on 2024 prospect lists AFAIC, hopping in at like #30 EoY for MLB and NR for Fangraphs, but he might move around a little for 2025 lists. As was mentioned previously, his batted ball data I saw at a glance was similar to Brooks Lee, but a bit weaker than Lee. Batted ball data from MiLB isn't nearly as reliable.

Paddack had a disappointing season in 2020 Paddack had a disappointing season in 2021 Paddack had a disappointing season in 2022 Paddack had a disappointing season in 2023 Paddack had a disappointing season in 2024 Fixed that :) On another note, the Marlins are probably in some serious hot water regarding payroll, and I don't think they're likely to be able to fix it. Nobody wants to play for them. Probably even worse than the Athletics' reputation at this point.

Joe Pohlad's marketing prowess on full display... the Minnesota Mariners!!!! errr. Twins!!

Nobody is blocking Emmanuel Rodriguez. If Rodriguez continues to rake at AAA, the Twins will put him into the lineup. Larnach or Wallner can easily be moved to DH, which is a position the Twins don't honestly have anybody to play right now. Martin can easily be optioned. That all assumes Larnach or Castro is even on the roster to open the season.

Brooks Lee doesn't have the tools to be effective as a shortstop, and he didn't hit well enough to play the position as a starter even if he did have the tools. How much of Lee's struggles were related to the back and arm issues... at age 23 is pretty unknown. What is known at this point is the Twins don't think he's a SS at the MLB level. Willi Castro has been a very poor shortstop with mixed fielding metrics last year. He has the tools necessary to play the position, but I don't know as he'll be on the opening day roster. The Twins' plan just seems so unpredictable. It feels as if Falvey thinks they have a 36-man active roster every offseason only to be reminded it's a 26-man roster before the start of the season. Royce Lewis is the only player on the Twins with multiple years of team control who isn't a burden on the payroll with the physical tools to play SS at the MLB level. The Twins coaches have been unable to help him address his throwing accuracy problems. Lewis was viewed as the 2023 primary SS by the organization after Correa opted out, but before Correa was brought back. Seems the Twins have written him off as a potential SS. The Twins tried hard to make Austin Martin into a shortstop, but his arm and fielding errors made him into a defensive liability. Martin did make a major leap forward at 2B in 2023 grading out very well compared to his peers in the International League so the Twins, not wanting to promote quality defense, promptly moved him to a utility outfield position. Martin has the physical tools to succeed at 2B, but his instincts really seem poor. He's not a viable SS. Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien are non-starters in the SS discussion. Payton Eeles will be 25, and had an amazing storybook year, but like DaShawn Keirsey, Jr., there are reasons to doubt the sustainability of Eeles' plate production. While Eeles acquitted himself well during limited playing time at SS in St. Paul, scouting reports do not like his arm strength for the position. Then again, scouts didn't like anything in his game and he's proven to be better than the vast majority of prospects. Will Holland is a slick fielding shortstop and utility player who looked good last year, but he broke his leg in late June. The Twins wound up transferring him to the 60 day IL after a month when it became apparent the injury wouldn't see Holland return quickly. It wound up ending his season. He was drafted in the 5th round as an older Junior (a21 season) out of Auburn in 2019, and the bat hasn't historically been there with very high K rates through AA, and he's now entering his age 27 season. His K rate dropped two consecutive years even with promotions, and it was fair at 21.4% in AAA, but it could just be a function of experience and polish. The power showed up last year in a SSS out of nowhere. He's probably viewed as the replacement for Michael Helman this year. Untrusted emergency depth, but with a hint of potential. The top SS's in St. Paul (nothing worth noting in Wichita) last year were Rylan Bannon 274 innings (MiLB free agent) Michael Helman 264 innings (traded to Cardinals for cash) Diego #2 Castillo 188.1 innings (MiLB free agent) Payton Eeles 184.1 innings Will Holland 170.0 innings The Twins adding a veteran guy like a Diego Castillo or Luis Urias is possibly just a move for some high floor AAA depth IMHO. I can't see them signing a definite MLB caliber player unless they move Castro.

They even got cheap with limiting the magnet schedules given away opening weekend, LOL.

These two images above are why Bader was signed. If Austin Martin made use of his tools, he'd be a 2 WAR full season center fielder, but Martin's reaction time is poor and his acceleration is below average. Martins instincts and situational awareness when fielding the ball are also poor. Bader uses his tools to their fullest, and historically (this is a bit concerning) he was quite a bit faster than Martin. Martin is not new to CF or outfield in general. DaShawn Keirsey's (.991/2.53) career fielding numbers in MiLB are arguably worse than Martin's (.995 FP, 2.62 RF/9), though it's very hard to compare the two fairly. What I can say with confidence is Keirsey's numbers in center field do not project him as a plus center fielder, IMHO. He doesn't grade out impressively vs. other center fielders in the same league with the metrics I have available. The fact the Twins have cast off Michael Helman and signed Harrison Bader make it clear how they feel about Keirsey and Martin based on the scouting and coaching teams. The front office has determined neither is a viable starting CF option and the Twins absolutely need that because they know Buxton is very likely to be able to play only 60-80 games in CF.

Sure, if there's value, the Twins might move Bader at the deadline... and if they're also out of playoff contention.

Who is he blocking? DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.?

For the people losing their minds over payroll, this must be really stressful as the narrative of cheap ownership is being eroded. The Twins were projected near $140MM as the offseason commenced, and now they're into the mid $140s. This is Falvey-esque in terms of how things are coming about. Collect a whole bunch of 1 WAR types for depth and versatility rather than spend the budget on a couple highly valuable players. It's the front office holding the team back, not the ownership IMHO.

Not really. wRC+ Bader vs. Margot from first significant playing time season for both players (2018) 2018 = 107 vs. 90 2019 = 82 vs. 84 2020 = 114 vs. 94 2021 = 108 vs. 94 2022 = 84 vs. 104 2023 = 68 vs. 92 2024 = 85 vs. 79 Margot couldn't hit, he was rapidly declining defensively partially due to losing his speed. Bader was at least still good defensively last year. I'd expect a wRC+ 85ish year from Bader and very good defense in center field, where he should still be able to play.

Bader is a serviceable full time CF. Very good defense, poor hitter. At $6MM, makes sense for a Byron Buxton backup. I have no idea what the payroll target for this team actually is. Not sure if this has a significant impact on Castro. I agree with comments comparing Bader to Michael A. Taylor. Fairly similar in terms of value at the plate and value in the field expectations prior to each joining the Twins.

Hits a heck of a lot better than Manny Margot did last year, and he can play defense.

Please, sign me up for an aging 1.0 WAR player. We need it!!!!

Can we shut the door on the Byron Buxton might be healthy or might be the best CF in MLB stuff? He's a good center fielder. One of the better ones, overall. He'll play a maximum of 60-80 games in center field, and his WAR is going to be based on whether or not he finishes the year on a hot streak or cold streak. Last year, he finished on a big hot streak. He was a below average MLB hitter for most of his season. 2B is obviously a dark horse. Depending on trades and personnel swapping, I think Willi Castro could even find himself as a static 2B this year. SP is deep for Minnesota, but lacks ceiling. The Twins might are at the edge of a top 10 rotation in the projections at 13.6 fWAR, ranking 8th in MLB. There's a pretty tight grouping of MLB rotations around that 13.6 value. Plus or minus 1 WAR would rank the Twins anywhere from 5th to 13th.

I'll pass on the Twins promos. First 10,000 fans, lol, yeah right. If it's a good giveaway and for 10k fans, gotta be at the game 1hr before gates open to collect the 8k which will actually be available after people buy the first 2k before game.