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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I think the primary factor in this narrative is not the 'biased' or 'unfair' media...it's the psychotic fan base. In this history, there is absolutely nothing at play other than the quality of the teams. If the team records were reversed this year...especially their records against winning teams...you'd see it reflected in the opinions of the national media and the Vegas odds. Truth is, the Yankees beat the Twins in past post-seasons because they were always the better team. Always. If they beat the Twins again this year, it'll be for the same reason. The good news is the gap may not be as large as it's been in the past...and the better team doesn't ALWAYS win a 5-game series.
  2. jkcarew
    Nope. Instead, they'll have to hope for something useful out of the likes of Giancarlo Stanton.
  3. jkcarew
    To their credit, the Twins are in a position to 'have' to play a good-defending veteran with 133 career HR's and a 2019 OPS+ of 103. I'd rather have Arraez. His OBP is a great fit in this lineup. But it could be way worse...and the Yankess will have their issues, as well.
  4. jkcarew
    Or...K% is meaningless when you lead the league in HR/PA. But I agree. It’s an opportunity. What would the OPS/wRC+ look like if he could bring the K% down 5%? 10%?
  5. jkcarew
    Nice list. Fun. 1B is Diaz over Wiel, about any way you could possibly measure it...except 'current organization'.
  6. jkcarew
    You develop him at short. Shortstop is the most difficult position from a technical standpoint. For superior athletes like Lewis it’s easy to transition to another position from SS if/when that time comes. Not so, in reverse. That’s the point. And that’s why he’ll stay there until the bat is ready and they have a specific spot open on the big club...at that point, the transition would happen fast, and he’d be here.
  7. jkcarew
    Yay!
  8. jkcarew
    I don't think we're forgetting how well Buxton was playing. I don't, anyway. I think most here are saying that, at this point, it's just hard to ignore the risk of his health...and the risk that all the injuries will diminish/neutralize the defense that is/was driving so much of his current/past value. (I also think WAR overstates his current value because of the magnitude of the defensive component of his WAR...but acknowledge that a 2019 version of Buxton that plays 150 games and OPS+'s 115 or so, is probably more valuable than anything we've seen from Sano so far.)
  9. jkcarew
    The fact that you acknowledge that Sano COULD lead the league in HR's some year...IMO, that's rationale for Sano having more future value, not Buxton. If I had a choice between the best defensive center fielder in the league...let's pretend he's around league average hitter....and the guy who leads the league in HR's, I'll take the guy who leads the league in HR's. Every time. IMO, the rationale for Buxton is that he is transformed offensively and his injury history pretty much immediately ends.
  10. jkcarew
    Funny... as in kinda ridiclous: Buxton's bWAR for 2019 is still somehow higher than Sano's. Exhibit A in the limitation of WAR, and the influence extreme and questionable math on the defensive side has on it. Recency suggests Sano would have more future value. But, I think it's still a tough call. If Buxton played 140+ games a year in center field at the offensive level he established this year, he'd be more valuable than Sano. Sano would have to materially raise his BA/OBP (which probably means lowering the K rate) to match Buxton's value if that were to happen. Still, we're currently looking at Sano trending toward improving his value, while Buxton's value seems at risk. So it's really hard to not say Sano is the better bet right now. Tough call...as Bill Brown posted above...this is why the FO make the big bucks.
  11. jkcarew
    If the insinuation is that Gardenhire doesn't play the young players...I don't buy it. He'll play who is on the roster. 2019 PA from players 27 and under: Tigers: 4254 Twins: 3836 2019 IP from players 27 and under: Tigers: 600 Twins: 420 If the point is that he doesn't develop young players well...maybe. He definitely comes from the school where developing players isn't what the major-league manager does....and may be an odd fit for Detroit based on that. Thought he was one of the best in-game managers around back when he had talent with the Twins.
  12. jkcarew
    I think the rationale in this article to go with the bullpen game in game two makes some sense. But mostly, it makes sense if you win game one. If you don't win game one, this strategy has you down a game in a 5-game series and starting a rookie (or Perez? or Gibson?)...and going bullpen, at Yankee stadium or Minute Maid...both band-boxes.
  13. jkcarew
    In the one-year category, Morris by a mile (until Cruz gets his chance to OPS 1.000 in this year's WS...and if not, there's always next year). Or...Oliva in 1961, or Carew in 1964. I mean, they WERE free agents.
  14. jkcarew
    The Royals have won 36.3% of their games this year. In the recent series against the Twins, they won 25% of the games. I'd say they're exactly as good as their record. Average probability of a team with the Royals record of getting swept in a 4-game series? 16%. Average probability of a team with the Tigers record of being swept in a 3-game series? 35%. (So for an 'excellent' team...sweeping even the Tigers in a 3-game set is a coin flip, at best.) The extreme records are a symptom of the unprecedented tanking in the league, IMO. Those marginal wins that would go to 'normal' bad teams are not being recorded by tanking teams...they get spread around the league with the better teams gobbling up more than their share.
  15. jkcarew
    The criteria seems to be the best one-year impact...and based on only the first year? Why? There is Ervin Santana’s 2017 season of 4.8 bWAR. Also Phil Hughes’ 2014 (which was the first year) bWAR of 4.5.
  16. jkcarew
    I don’t feel sorry for Gibson, because he’s already had a successful career...yes, even given his draft status. Go look at some of the other names in the back half of that draft...or read Birdwatchers post above. Precious few seem to get that. If the fans constantly obsess on why Gibson isn’t/wasn’t better...that’s what fans do...but it doesn’t mean that what he did accomplish didn’t happen. The thing I like about Gibson the most is that he DOES get it.
  17. jkcarew
    Berrios has thrown 2936 pitches this year. Taylor Rogers, a heavily-used back-end reliever, 1026. Can relief pitchers experience issues and be shut down? Yes. But, if a pitcher is deemed a risk in that regard, the bullpen role provides better odds.
  18. jkcarew
    His innings limit as a starter this year based on how his shoulder was doing was 52.2. That would get him into May. The year before it was 102...maybe the all-star break. As a starter, he’s been shut down every season of his professional career...not by arbitrary innings limits...by issues with his arm/shoulder. I get everyone wanting him to be a starter...me too. But I’d rather have him available the entire year as a reliever than constantly having to shut him down as a starter.
  19. jkcarew
    Nice work, Jake! Quite an honor. Congratulations!
  20. jkcarew
    I mean...the subject of the post is to opine on Arraez’s value. Seems the absolute appropriate thread to offer opinions on what might limit his value...in other words, his potential shortcomings and weaknesses...or likelihood of sustaining current performance or improving his defense. I think people can have different opinions on that without being negative or disregarding what he’s already accomplished this year.
  21. jkcarew
    He's not going to develop significant power with the approach/swing he deploys. But, I'm not sure he'll have to to be valuable. I think a consistently high BABiP is viable...he hits the ball from line to line, uses the whole field. And it doesn't need to be 'insanely' high (currently .380). Even if the BABiP dips to a more 'realistic' .350, with his ability to put the ball in play, and accept the BB, the OBP is still around .370-380, and the OPS is still around .840 to .850. That's fine with even 'decent', but below-average defense at 2nd. To me it comes down to what type of batting order you can put around him. He's perfect for the 2019 Twins who have all the power they need and are short on OBP and putting the ball in play. I think it's realistic to think he can be an every-day second baseman with some improvement defensively...or a super-utility that plays, basically, every day. But I agree with those that say the BABiP has to stay high-ish for the value to be good, as I don't see significant/consistent power developing in that swing.
  22. jkcarew
    The way to do this, is to go with the classics...with a twist... 4 - not Bob Allison or Paul Molitor...instead: Chip Hale 6 - Vic Wertz (the one who hit the 430-foot out to Willie Mays) - 1963 7 - Jimmie Hall; or two-time world series champion Greg Gagne 14 - Glenn Borgman 28 - Vic Power (62-64) 29 - George Mitterwald (1966) 34 - Jose Morales (late 70's)
  23. jkcarew
    We're missing the primary risk with regard to a true 'bullpen' approach to post-season starts: you don't have an unlimited roster in the post season. If one of your first two starters has a short start in a competitive game, you're going to stress your pen before you even get to the bullpen game (or games). I'm guessing a 3-starter rotation given the off days, with Gibson (depending on strength/health) or Dobnak...I'm guess the Twins would rather stay away from deploying a left-handed starter against the Yankees or Astros.
  24. jkcarew
    And then there's this...one of the two starters in 1987 was a top-3 guy in all of baseball, and the OTHER was a hall-of-famer with WS experience. Having said that, I not sure you need four with the way the playoff schedule is now...maybe...but, I'd say at least three.
  25. jkcarew
    Polanco, Cruz, or Rogers...how’s that for narrowing it down?
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