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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    The Royals have won 36.3% of their games this year. In the recent series against the Twins, they won 25% of the games. I'd say they're exactly as good as their record. Average probability of a team with the Royals record of getting swept in a 4-game series? 16%. Average probability of a team with the Tigers record of being swept in a 3-game series? 35%. (So for an 'excellent' team...sweeping even the Tigers in a 3-game set is a coin flip, at best.) The extreme records are a symptom of the unprecedented tanking in the league, IMO. Those marginal wins that would go to 'normal' bad teams are not being recorded by tanking teams...they get spread around the league with the better teams gobbling up more than their share.
  2. jkcarew
    The criteria seems to be the best one-year impact...and based on only the first year? Why? There is Ervin Santana’s 2017 season of 4.8 bWAR. Also Phil Hughes’ 2014 (which was the first year) bWAR of 4.5.
  3. jkcarew
    I don’t feel sorry for Gibson, because he’s already had a successful career...yes, even given his draft status. Go look at some of the other names in the back half of that draft...or read Birdwatchers post above. Precious few seem to get that. If the fans constantly obsess on why Gibson isn’t/wasn’t better...that’s what fans do...but it doesn’t mean that what he did accomplish didn’t happen. The thing I like about Gibson the most is that he DOES get it.
  4. jkcarew
    Berrios has thrown 2936 pitches this year. Taylor Rogers, a heavily-used back-end reliever, 1026. Can relief pitchers experience issues and be shut down? Yes. But, if a pitcher is deemed a risk in that regard, the bullpen role provides better odds.
  5. jkcarew
    His innings limit as a starter this year based on how his shoulder was doing was 52.2. That would get him into May. The year before it was 102...maybe the all-star break. As a starter, he’s been shut down every season of his professional career...not by arbitrary innings limits...by issues with his arm/shoulder. I get everyone wanting him to be a starter...me too. But I’d rather have him available the entire year as a reliever than constantly having to shut him down as a starter.
  6. jkcarew
    Nice work, Jake! Quite an honor. Congratulations!
  7. jkcarew
    I mean...the subject of the post is to opine on Arraez’s value. Seems the absolute appropriate thread to offer opinions on what might limit his value...in other words, his potential shortcomings and weaknesses...or likelihood of sustaining current performance or improving his defense. I think people can have different opinions on that without being negative or disregarding what he’s already accomplished this year.
  8. jkcarew
    He's not going to develop significant power with the approach/swing he deploys. But, I'm not sure he'll have to to be valuable. I think a consistently high BABiP is viable...he hits the ball from line to line, uses the whole field. And it doesn't need to be 'insanely' high (currently .380). Even if the BABiP dips to a more 'realistic' .350, with his ability to put the ball in play, and accept the BB, the OBP is still around .370-380, and the OPS is still around .840 to .850. That's fine with even 'decent', but below-average defense at 2nd. To me it comes down to what type of batting order you can put around him. He's perfect for the 2019 Twins who have all the power they need and are short on OBP and putting the ball in play. I think it's realistic to think he can be an every-day second baseman with some improvement defensively...or a super-utility that plays, basically, every day. But I agree with those that say the BABiP has to stay high-ish for the value to be good, as I don't see significant/consistent power developing in that swing.
  9. jkcarew
    The way to do this, is to go with the classics...with a twist... 4 - not Bob Allison or Paul Molitor...instead: Chip Hale 6 - Vic Wertz (the one who hit the 430-foot out to Willie Mays) - 1963 7 - Jimmie Hall; or two-time world series champion Greg Gagne 14 - Glenn Borgman 28 - Vic Power (62-64) 29 - George Mitterwald (1966) 34 - Jose Morales (late 70's)
  10. jkcarew
    We're missing the primary risk with regard to a true 'bullpen' approach to post-season starts: you don't have an unlimited roster in the post season. If one of your first two starters has a short start in a competitive game, you're going to stress your pen before you even get to the bullpen game (or games). I'm guessing a 3-starter rotation given the off days, with Gibson (depending on strength/health) or Dobnak...I'm guess the Twins would rather stay away from deploying a left-handed starter against the Yankees or Astros.
  11. jkcarew
    And then there's this...one of the two starters in 1987 was a top-3 guy in all of baseball, and the OTHER was a hall-of-famer with WS experience. Having said that, I not sure you need four with the way the playoff schedule is now...maybe...but, I'd say at least three.
  12. jkcarew
    Polanco, Cruz, or Rogers...how’s that for narrowing it down?
  13. jkcarew
    Was Larnach as good as Diaz in the Southern League? Or the Florida State League?
  14. jkcarew
    Worried about a 1.5 game lead, and Twins end day with a 5.5 game lead, instead. Fun day to be Twins fan, to say the least!
  15. jkcarew
    Kind of Symmetrical. Very early in the season before everyone caught fire (it seemed like everyone), it was Polanco who carried us. Now, at the very end...again?
  16. jkcarew
    Let's not rip Ted for leaving the two best hitting season in the organization (even Larnach wasn't that close) completely off his ballot. Let's instead rip Ted for his first two choices: 65 games worth of Rooker...and Wiel, who ranked 9th on his own team in OPS (players with at least 100 PA). 3rd on his own team if you want the threshold to be 300PA...but that would easily eliminate Rooker
  17. jkcarew
    I would suggest that cause and affect might be confused here. I think others have stated it... Eddie doesn't "choose" to swing. He swings. Pitchers have adjusted to throw fewer pitches in the strike zone to him...because he and the new ball were exacting a heavy price for that...and because they've learned (or been reminded) that he'll swing at any pitch. If you (or anyone with the numbers) told me that Eddie was seeing/taking materially more pitches per PA early in the season than he is now...I'd feel more encouraged that he could make a quick adjustment to get back to that.
  18. jkcarew
    Hard to come to the conclusion that in-game management is a strength of Rocco's...so far. Last night, was one of the more bizarre examples of that (although, I doubt it impacted the outcome).
  19. jkcarew
    “The Twins are as good as the Yankees in 2019 and establishing that during the ALDS would go a long way for the sake of momentum.” No, they aren’t. Not by any even modestly objective measure. I do agree they match up better against the Yankees and could pull off the upset...if they get healthy...and if they get there.
  20. jkcarew
    Well deserved!
  21. jkcarew
    I’d have to look at the Tampa/Oakland schedules. Twins have a 4-game lead on Cleveland, have a difficult matchup tomorrow, then 3 games against Cleveland (to whom they’re lost 5 of the last 7)...and are very clearly limping to the finish line both in terms of health and performance. Meanwhile, Chicago, at least, has proven capable of winning a series against the Twins. And that was when the Twins were much healthier than they are now.
  22. jkcarew
    Cruz walked twice. Obviously not going to get anything to hit with nobody hitting behind him. Sadly, Rosario qualifies as nobody since about June...then Astudillo and Adrianza. No reason to do anything with Cruz other than to see if he’ll chase.
  23. jkcarew
    Unlikely that the Twins miss the playoffs, but not nearly that unlikely. Those probabilities don’t account for the lineups the Twins are currently trotting out there.
  24. jkcarew
    I'm with you...mostly. I agree with the sentiment that the numbers can't be interpreted in terms of where they would fit historically. About every record related to HRs is falling...most overall, most by a team, most in a month, most by a rookie in his first X games, most by a player before his 21st birthday...ad nauseam. Still, I don't expect the 2019 team number to have much permanence. Two reasons. One, I don't think it's JUST the ball. Two, I think MLB very much wants the HRs. I think they see it as "well, if batting averages are going to be low, and strike-outs are going to be high, we need lots of home runs". And since the BA and K trends don't seem to be easing up any time soon, I'm not expecting MLB to be in any kind of a hurry to inhibit the HR trend...including materially 'correcting' the baseball.
  25. jkcarew
    'Raided' implies a scenario where another company/organization comes in and 'steals' the employee by overpaying to have that person perform the same job/responsibilities for the raiding organization. I think what is meant in the article...and what is more realistic in the real world...is that these people would receive new opportunities with added responsibilities...promotions...in new organizations. I see that in the case of the first two. But, what is the scenario for Rowson leaving? For a hitting coach to MLB manager promotion? I guess maybe a team could offer him an 'assistant manager - hitting' title with a hefty raise? Unlikely. I think hitting coach is a position you leave if you choose to change the direction of your career...or, more often, when you're fired.
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