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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    "...Randy Dobnak is the best internal option to remain in the rotation with Jose Berrios." Even if you disagree...the fact that this is even arguable should scare all Twins fans...and hopefully, it will scare the FO just as much.
  2. jkcarew
    "Cease finished the year strong with a 3.00 ERA in September, but his last three starts came against the Angels, Mariners, and Tigers." You could make a similar comment about literally every good number a Twins pitcher (or hitter) posted in 2019. The Twins strength of schedule in 2019 was historically low. Like, about as low as any team has had in recent history. The Twins won 32 of 69 games they played against >.500 teams. The White Sox won 29 of 69 games they played against >.500 teams (not including the Twins). Having said that, I think the White Sox are probably another year away...2021...we'll see what this off-season brings. But, it certainly looks like they're coming. It's just a matter of when.
  3. jkcarew
    You know you're riding hot as a manager, when giving a guy with a 155 wRC+ only 350 plate appearances is hailed as brilliant. Just say'in. The list of qualifiers with a better wRC+ than Garver last year consisted of Trout, Yelich, Bregman, Cruz, Bellinger, and Springer. One theory is that the extra at-bats will expose him (to more tough right-handers, etc.), as well as tire him out. But, if Rocco plays it the same in 2020, and Garver does the same thing, I hope they move him to a position where he can play every day. It's not like the extra rest is ever going to turn him into a plus defender back there.
  4. jkcarew
    You mean he's going to be a post-season star for a WS-winning team!!? If so, I DEFINITELY want the Twins to be the team that signs him.
  5. jkcarew
    The organization seems to be short on third-basemen and first-basemen. By that, I mean, prospects that are infielders and likely (in the near future) to hit at the level of a major-league 3rd-baseman...or the even-higher bar of a major league 1st-baseman. For that reason alone...and with all the holes to be filled elsewhere (primarily pitching)...we need Sano to keep making strides...even small ones.
  6. jkcarew
    What does that look like? You play him at all the positions other than SS that he might be asked to play? You've basically eliminated his chances of being able to play short-stop at an every-day major league level...or, you've decided that you will (when the time comes) develop him at short while he's at the major league level. Not worth it. It's relatively easy for an elite athlete to transition from SS to somewhere else,...vs the other way around. I'm arguing that the LOW risk move is to continue to focus his development at SS rather than guess where he might fit in when his bat demands that he move to the major league club. The HIGH risk path is to siphon significant development time away from SS by guessing where he might fit when that time comes. (And no, I don't consider playing AFL games at 3rd...and occasional minor league games at CF, etc. to be inconsistent with the low risk path. The question is, where should he focus his development at this time.)
  7. jkcarew
    Why would Polanco be 'entrenched' at SS, if Lewis is better than Polanco there? Under your original premise that Lewis is a better defensive shortstop than Polanco (with further development), you play Lewis at short...and Polanco moves. You always play the best defender at SS.
  8. jkcarew
    Then there is absolutely no reason not to go down that path. Yes, expose Lewis to other positions to ensure that things aren't totally foreign depending on how events unfold. But SS is where the highest upside is for any player's value...and it's the most difficult from a technical standpoint. Focus development there until the above sentence is proved false. (Or, I guess...until Buxton is traded or forced to retire.)
  9. jkcarew
    Agree that his draft position is a sunk cost and shouldn't impact 'where he adds the most value'. Still, I'd be disappointed if a corner is where he adds the most value. With all the speed and athleticism he's purported to have...it would be at least mildly disappointing if he skill level is such that the speed/athleticism is marginalized by having to play in a corner. It would mean, basically, that he's doesn't have more defensive upside skill-wise than even Polanco. And also that the offensive threshold for what will make him valuable rises.
  10. jkcarew
    I think the theory only works if the top bullpen arms are all comparable, about the same. And if I had that, I'd just go 1960's/1970's on the bit. Back then, the best bullpen arms regularly (even usually) pitched multiple innings per appearance. If/when the rule changes (3 batter min), things hopefully will migrate in that direction at least some. You'd hope that bullpen arms will have to evolve more to guys with pitches that are decent against all hitters and evolve somewhat away from guys that have pitches that are only effective against left (or right) handed hitters. If the LOOGY can no longer be justified on the roster...there's less reason to not let a reliever (that's not getting killed) pitch more than 3 outs.
  11. jkcarew
    It's a question of timing, I would think. Spending money on a 3rd baseman simply isn't a priority for 2020 with all the holes in the pitching staff. However, at some point (even if Sano 'maintains' at 3B) you have to solve for first base. And if that solve is Sano, you'll need a 3rd baseman. And where is the upcoming 3rd-baseman in the system? Lewis? That's problematic. One, I'm pretty sure when you spent the first overall pick, you thought you were drafting a SS or a CF...at worse, a 2B. Secondly, and I know he's very young...but so far, there's been precious little to suggest he's going to be a legitimate 3B type bat at the major league level.
  12. jkcarew
    Huh? A 103 wRC+ is a 103 wRC+. It speaks for itself, and it accounts for Rosario's 32 home runs. But since you mentioned it...46 other guys hit at least 32 home runs last year...and a whole bunch of them were corner outfielders. Everyone hit home runs in 2019. In fact, Rosario's home run rate (HR/AB) was barely better than that of Jason Castro and Jonathan Schoop...and his OBP was basically the lowest on the team (lower than Schoop). So, no...those numbers aren't good...they're barely average for players that play his position. I don't hate Eddie. I do think he's a good RBI guy. You can't knock in runs if you don't swing the bat...and Eddie certainly does that. And he benefited in that regard from hitting immediately behind Kepler, Polanco, and Cruz all year long. And, as mentioned, I do think he was bothered by injuries in 2019. Maybe I should have also added that I don't think Rosario is a priority 'problem' to solve...Twins have bigger issues than left field, even at the level Rosario played in 2019. But the post asks people to weigh in on Eddie....and 2019 wasn't very pretty, IMO.
  13. jkcarew
    I wouldn’t call Rosario in 2019 “good”. His OPS+ was 106, his wRC+ 103...which for left fielders in the league is barely average. There were 31 left fielders in the majors with more than 200 PA that posted better wRC+ in 2019. There were a similar number of players that played significant time in LF that had better WAR. I do think he was bothered by injury...and I do think he is a better player than he showed in 2019. Not sure I’d extend him though. Depends on what they think of their developing corner outfield prospects. And, while including him in a package for pitching might make sense, the package would still need to include a top-end prospect to return a top end arm with any team control.
  14. jkcarew
    Polanco or Cruz. Cruz, probably. It’s not like Polanco or Kepler were needle-movers defensively...despite the artificial boost Kepler’s defensive metrics got from his time playing center. And while both had very good years offensively, neither were that close to Cruz’s level.
  15. jkcarew
    I think it'd be pretty easy to go through past Twins' rosters and confirm that this should be a non-factor in terms of precedent.
  16. jkcarew
    In the drafts from 2011-2015, Houston out-drafted the Twins by about 50 WAR. 50. In that stretch the Twins have about 30 WAR...all wrapped up in Buxton, Berrios, Rogers (all from 2012)...and Garver. Meanwhile, Houston drafted Springer, Correa, McCullers, Bregman, and guys like Ramon Laureano, who was about a 4-WAR player with the A's this year. Many of those years...especially 13-15...the Twins had very early picks and have nothing to show for it...with time running out. (If you go back another year, the Twins have Rosario to show...but the Astros out-drafted them in that draft as well, getting good players they traded for WS pieces like Evan Gattis and Ken Giles.) And regarding international signings...in the 12+ combined seasons of Sano, Polanco, and Kepler so far, they have a total of about 29 WAR. Just Altuve has about 39 WAR in his 8+ seasons. With every game one actually watches the Astros play, it's more and more obvious how far the Twins are from that organization. Basically, the Twins need to get more aggressive with trades...they have to get more aggressive with payroll....AND they have to have the prospects they keep hit, and hit BIG. That's basically what we're watching with Houston...still, they found a way to lose a playoff series last year, which is probably the good news.
  17. jkcarew
    I'll give you Cole, there. Not Verlander. His mid-career (injury-related) two-year lull was well over. He had posted over 7 WAR the year before he was traded...then 6.4 the year Houston acquired him....which is pretty much exactly what Houston has got from him since. While it would have been reasonable to expect some drop-off...everyone knew Houston was getting a top-end pitcher when that deal was made.
  18. jkcarew
    I'd take Wheeler in a heart-beat. Like others, don't think he's any more of an ace that Berrios, but I'd take him. What I like about him is his relative consistency in getting into at least the 7th inning. I might like Burgarner more in the shortest term...but do worry more about the miles on his arm relative to Wheeler, despite being only one year older. It'll be interesting to see how many years Bumgarner gets.
  19. jkcarew
    Was Berrios 'bad' enough, and was Rogers good enough....that Rogers 69 innings were more valuable, or 'better,' than Berrios's 200+ innings? I'm with those that say no. Maybe some recency bias in light of how Berrios finished the year? While I feel the 2019 version of Berrios is not (ideally) what the Twins need as a number 1...he was still, by far, the most valuable starter, and probably the 'pitcher of the year'...primarily because he was the only guy that could consistently get into the 7th, and frequently the 8th, inning. The bullpen, including Rogers, probably would've been less effective if Berrios had averaged the 5.1 innings per start that was the norm for literally every other starter the Twins rolled out there this year.
  20. jkcarew
    Like others here, I think these names probably would work...they go in the middle of the rotation. But, we also need help at the top.
  21. jkcarew
    I understand the part article has a couple more parts, so I'll reserve judgement on the body when it is completed. In the meantime, this part deals with stuff on the margins. Smart philosophies and use of technology can't make average talent great...can't make 85-win talent beat (with any consistency) 95-win talent. Houston is Houston because they have better players. This, primarily because of how well they drafted (also great international signings) during the tanking years, and secondarily, because of their willingness to make trades. The stuff in this article, while it has value, is a relatively small factor in terms of impact on how good Houston is currently.
  22. jkcarew
    But if “showing fire” had anything to do with the first-round win...anything. At all. The solution for the second round should be pretty simple, right? Just show even more fire. Shildt must have forgotten to scream and shout after game one. Or...maybe he did, but it doesn’t work if the other team has Scherzer and Strasburg dealing.
  23. jkcarew
    "What we saw take place in the Division Series round is complete pandemonium. We’re a Tampa Bay Rays victory over Gerrit Cole and the Houston Astros away from complete chaos in the Championship round. That’s not to suggest the Postseason is a complete crapshoot, but it absolutely solidifies the reality that nothing in October is certain. The Dodgers and Astros had no business facing a game five. They were on a collision course to meet in the World Series. Instead, here we are." Not really. Tampa Bay lost...they didn't come really close to winning game 5. Why? Because the other team had dominant starting pitching. Meanwhile...over the final 3/4 of the season, the Dodgers and Nationals had identical records (74-38). And the Nationals have 2 (and arguably 3) starting pitchers better than the Twins best. This doesn't add up to "pandemonium" or anything close. If your talent puts you at 25% odds to win a playoff series against a top opponent, what's your chances of winning a 4th series after having already lost 3? 25%. It's never even a decent position to be in if you want to get to the WS. Moral: if you want to get at least 7 wins in the post season (this year's "phenomenal" performance by Tampa Bay netted them 2 wins)...you have to have top-end talent...especially on the pitching side of things. Twins need to go out and get that. No matter how...develop (not looking promising), trade, sign.
  24. jkcarew
    Twins add 5 minor Leaguers to 40 man roster. Twins lose OF Luke Raley in Rule 5 draft. Twins Daily faithful fills 15 pages of comments that it's the worst thing ever to lose Luke Raley. (chuckle) I think it's most fun to poke fun both at the Twins and also at ourselves!
  25. jkcarew
    "The [braves] started some s---. We finished the s---," Shildt says in the video, which outfielder Randy Arozarena later acknowledged he streamed live on Instagram. "And that's how we roll. No one f---s with us ever. Now, I don't give a f--- who we play. We're gonna f--- them up. We're gonna take it right to them the whole f---ing way. We're gonna kick their f---ing ass." The Cards are 0-2 since this "inspiring speech"...including 0-2 at home....with about 5 total hits. But, OK.
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