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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    As a team, Houston's batting OPS was higher on the road than it was at home in both 2017 and 2018. Higher at home in 2019. If they're healthy, they'll be plenty good offensively. It's plenty fine with me that the Twins are even in the conversation...which they undoubtedly are.
  2. jkcarew
    This article gets ahead of itself quite a bit, IMO... Chacin won't even see the 40-man until/unless a fairly significant string of events unfolds. Barring a spring-training disaster, one or two of the young arms already on the 40-man will get the opportunities to start the season. If they fail as a group, and/or there are other injuries...and Chacin is good at Rochester....then maybe. It's just insurance...supplementary insurance even...the kind you buy when you already have insurance, but don't love it.
  3. jkcarew
    So, you're comparing him to A.J, huh? Good call, IMO. Come to think of it, the last time the Twins won a playoff series, Pierzinski was there...and played a HUGE role. Just say'in.
  4. jkcarew
    You mean like in the day's of Ty Cobb? If I'm trying to win, I'll take a measure of acid with the sugar...while absolutely acknowledging that it can go south just as easily.
  5. jkcarew
    Like others, I love the idea of Sano glued to the seat/spot next to Cruz...in the batting cage, dugout, clubhouse, plane. Please, Miggy...continue to be asking Nelson ton's of questions and watching every aspect of every single one of his at-bats.
  6. jkcarew
    I was thinking of posting an image of a street sign that read... '0 Street' I'm sure it's out there somewhere.
  7. jkcarew
    Nice article. Great point on Ramirez...in the 2nd-half, he was absolutely 100% the player that finished third in MVP voting the two prior seasons. He's a star. He's 27. Lindor just turned 26. We still talk about our 26-27 year-olds in terms of 'taking the next step'. What if Ramirez and Lindor can have even bigger seasons than they've had. Still very good chance of that...even likely at some point. And the pitching...so, yeah. Last year, pretty much everything that could go wrong for them, did go wrong. Lost some pitching...but still have pitching. We'll see...I still think they finish first or second.
  8. jkcarew
    Good point. Their combined 137 K's in those 412 AAA PA, just made it SEEM like they played a lot more
  9. jkcarew
    Congrats on the HS diploma, Jhoan!!
  10. jkcarew
    The game after the Berrios game, Santana, Rogers, and Kintzler held the Astros to 2 runs. The game after that our favorite whipping boy, Kyle Gibson held his own. Meanwhile, when the Astros's visited Target Field that year, sans garbage can, they hung 40 runs on the Twins in 3 games...including 9 base-runners and 4 runs in 5 innings to hang another loss on Berrios. I'm all for consequences (although, 'punishment' comes from the league, not the Twins). They created an advantage by willfully, and in an organized fashion, doing something against the rules. They cheated. But there is simply not much in the data to say that it was particularly effective or sustained....despite what some will try to do by cherry-picking specific at-bats and games.
  11. jkcarew
    LaMonte Wade was a below-average offensive player in AAA last year. But this year if forced to play regularly at the major-league level...at a corner outfield position no less...he’ll be a “fine” major league player? I like the optimism.
  12. jkcarew
    Is that what I said? Not even in the universe of what I said. If I don't call Sano a great hitter...yet...it's not quite the same as saying I don't think he has value, is it? He does. Quit a bit. Meanwhile, he still has his pitch recognition issues and he still cheats at times to protect the inner half....those challenges contribute to the swings and misses...not just "swinging hard" (Sano's a lower-half guy in terms of generating the power). The puchline to my post was that Sano's results can get even better. It's a function of the immense power combined with material opportunities for improvement. It's the opposite of a bad thing to say about Sano.
  13. jkcarew
    But let's dump Jake Cave from the 26-man roster...because...well, pretty much any free agent we could pick up would be better than him...not to mention about a half dozen guys within our own organization who have options. Right? Also, wouldn't read too much into the Avila number. 2019 was an extremely small sample size for him (only 200 or so PA). Although his bat will play up...as long as Garver is healthy...Avila can basically avoid left-handed pitching entirely, as was the case last year for him with the Diamondbacks. Nice article. Interesting. What has never made sense to me is how a guy like Sano can be among the league leaders in swings-and-misses (I presume this to be true)...and also right at the top of barrel percentage. How does that work? You frequently miss the ball entirely, but when you make contact, your contact is more precise than everyone else? I suspect that what's closer to the truth is that 'ordinary' players often put the barrel on the ball, but don't get the results to qualify under this metric. Meanwhile, Sano probably leads the universe in not getting the middle of the barrel to the ball...and having the result still meet the mph and launch angle criteria. I would guess that there are two types of hitters than fit at the top of this chart. Great hitters (like Cruz), and ridiculously strong hitters, like Sano. In other words...this could get even better for Sano.
  14. jkcarew
    DING! DING! DING! It's super relevant (unless you've never been on a farm...or driven past one)...but just as importantly...it has the potential to be extremely annoying to the person you hang it on. Great nicknames need to have an element of both endearment and annoyance. This is it.
  15. jkcarew
    Not sure there's much difference between Pineda and Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe (despite Thorpe's small-sample 2019 results). Don't think not having Pineda in the first quarter of the season will make a material difference. And, who knows what the Twins will get from Hill (hopefully, we can find out before the trade deadline). The difference that matters is the (still hypothetical) guy that can start game 1/2 of a 5-game playoff series with a real and good chance of controlling a stud lineup for 6 or more innings. And chances remain decent, that that guy won't be needed to finish ahead of Cleveland and Chicago. Risky, but probably still true in the 2020 AL Central.
  16. jkcarew
    _ _it!! If there's anything I hate more than having my bubble burst...it's having my bubble burst with a bunch of well-researched facts. But, yeah. Very nice article.
  17. jkcarew
    Every bit the 'what if' story that Mauer was, IMO. Congrats!
  18. jkcarew
    Good article. Still need to have good fortune/health...but agree that the floor for the 2020 club would seem to be very high by Twins historical standards. Would actually like to see slightly 'less' depth after the trade deadline
  19. jkcarew
    Don't get some of the comments regarding Cave. He's a fourth outfielder. He catches the ball when it's hit to him and he has a 111 career OPS+...last year he was 112. Meanwhile, we think Buxton is about to become Willie Mays...his OPS+ last year was 114. Likewise with LaMonte Wade. Beside the fact that his SLG is exceptionally poor...there were 7 guys at Rochester last year that had better OBP than he did. One of those was...you guessed it...Cave. Meanwhile, they're both left-handed and can't play center field. I can only chalk it up to the eternal desire for something new/different. IMO, if not Cave...then someone like Dyson who can be a defensive substitution late in games, and play a legitimate center field once a week or so.
  20. jkcarew
    Throw out 2018. Compare 2017, his 'promising' year, to last season. Significantly lower K%. Very Good. Same OBP, modestly improved BA, same HR%...way higher SLG. How is that possible? His BB% actually slipped a little. His BABiP slipped significantly with all the pulling and launching (more pull-happy than ever in 2019). But doubles. Lots and lots of doubles. Buxton's career doubles rate going into last year...just over 4%. Last year, easily over 10%...highest in baseball among players with 250+ PA. Only player in that category with more doubles than singles...no player you've ever heard of even close. Probably not sustainable for long. The good news is that he can eventually translate the improved ability to barrel to more HR's...along with a good number of doubles/triples. Meanwhile, it would be great if he could use right and right center more...would really help that BA/BABiP, IMO.
  21. jkcarew
    Moncada, Jimenez, Giolito, Robert...don't forget Kopech who dominated AAA as a 22-year old in 2018. All these guys are younger than any 2020 Twins contributor figures to be with the exceptions of Arraez and Graterol. Maybe not this year...but they're coming. Nice article.
  22. jkcarew
    There's zero evidence Kirilloff was every anything more than a fall-back option at first-base for 2020. It's not like his bat was knocking on the door last year...it wasn't...or even like he's ever been primarily a first-baseman in the minors. Meahwhile, the organization had Rooker and Larnach play a grand total of zero innings at first base in 2019. So what were these guys going to do for the 2020 Twins prior to the JD signing? Not going to DH, not going to be given bench roles...why would any prospects be given bench roles before they're out of options...let alone before they've even needed to be rostered? All of these guys figured to be depth options in 2020...options to be called up if there were injuries or catastrophic performance issues...which is exactly what they remain post JD signing. Longer-term, there's a chance this makes the outfield even more crowded...but then, you might have Rosario leaving, you might have Sano at DH instead of first, you might have made some trades, you might have long-term injuries, etc., etc., etc.
  23. jkcarew
    Somehow there is the impression that "innings limits" is what got Graterol into the predicament he's in. And that simply "stretching him out" is the solution. No. Last year, the organization was more than willing to stretch Graterol out. But he broke down...just like he did the year before, except even earlier. It's simply not wise...not realistic to think you're getting much more than 100 innings out of Graterol...regardless of what you "want" him to be. So...how best to use the 100 innings this year...that's the question. Starting?...maybe get him to 120 innings?..some of which undoubtedly would be in the minors? That could be very useful in the first-half of the year, to be sure. Or put him in the mlb bullpen, maybe 'open' him a few times, and worry about the possibilities of converting him to a starter in a theoretical future year? Given the current window/opportunity, it's hard to argue with a plan that makes those innings available to the major-league club throughout the year...and maximizes the likelihood that they're available in the post-season, as well.
  24. jkcarew
    The only practical alternative would have been to have him start until Pineda returns, shut him down, and bring him back in September. And that’s probably not very realistic either. Theoretically at least, as a reliever he can be available for the entire year. We’ll see.
  25. jkcarew
    Things I'd like to see, but never will... Donaldson hits home run. As he rounds the bases... Video board: clip of excited Dustin Hoffman as Rain Man: "Oh-oh! Oh-oh!" Does Donaldson strike me as a guy that would appreciate the bit going in that direction? I don't think so. No, definitely not. Definitely not.
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