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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    I'm not sure why Moran is in the minors. It seems extremely likely he would do a better job than Pagan or Duffey.
  2. twins_89
    One one hand, I really like Rodon and think he'd be a great addition. On the other hand, he can opt out after the season, so he is basically a rental. Another factor is that I believe Rodon would get a qualifying offer from the Giants (something a team acquiring him can't do), so any trade package will be increased to account for the lost draft capital. I suspect the rental price will just be to steep in a year where the playoffs are looking iffy at best.
  3. twins_89
    Calling the Twins an obvious playoff team seems like a stretch. There's a very real chance that on trade deadline day the Twins won't be a playoff team based on the current standings.
  4. twins_89
    Compared to past Falvey 1st round picks like Cavaco or Sabato, Brooks Lee is a home run. I have rarely been a fan of the current front office in terms of their 1st round picks, but this is a selection I'm extremely happy with. The last time I thought the team made a great 1st round pick was Larnach in 2018.
  5. twins_89
    They sent Kirilloff down to get on track, and at this point I think it's hard to argue that he hasn't earned a promotion. Over the last 30 days (plus his ABs so far in today's game), Kirilloff has hit 10 HR with a 1.236 OPS in 95 ABs. That's an extended stretch of pretty clearly being too good for the level.
  6. twins_89
    I'm skeptical that Gordon will stay with the Twins. In the outfield, Celestino is a superior option who should be the first in line to fill in for all 3 spots (with Kirilloff an option in RF/LF). In the infield, Arraez seems destined to be the super utility guy who plays every day at one of 1B/2B/3B. If a shortstop is needed for any length of time, Palacios looks like the preferred replacement. In terms of the near future, Steer is also a utility infield option that could be ready as soon as the second half of this season. It's hard for me to see where Gordon is going to find playing time. As far as the active roster, Celestino/Arraez/Miranda are clearly ahead of Gordon and I would guess Steer/Kirilloff will be fairly soon meaning Gordon could be left without a spot.
  7. twins_89
    With Ryan and Winder nearly back, Bundy's upcoming start could be his last with the Twins. Hopefully Gray will also be back in about a week. Gray, Ryan, Ober, Archer, Winder, and Smeltzer should be the rotation going forward.
  8. twins_89
    Not a great time for the Twins bullpen with Stashak out for the year, Alcala having a setback, and Duffey/Thielbar struggling mightily. The team is going to need to find another pitcher or two that can provide some level of consistency in high leverage situations. Megill is probably next in line (mainly because there isn't anyone else).
  9. twins_89
    Garlick is a really good hitter when he faces left handed pitching (1.240 OPS), unfortunately he turns into a pumpkin when there is a right handed pitcher on the mound (.652 OPS).
  10. twins_89
    I came into the season thinking this would be a developmental year for the Twins. It's looking like that will be the case for at least the next couple of months. The team should be able to get a good feel for where the young talent of Kirilloff, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers, Gordon, Larnach, and Celestino stand in terms of their readiness to play in the majors. The young pitching has looked good (Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran, Alcala, Jax, Moran, and Sands so far) and if the young position players show they are ready, this team could be set up really well for the long term.
  11. twins_89
    Bundy has one bad inning in 4 starts (that all went 5+ innings), that's far better than I expected. Also, what's up with Duran and Winder? They haven't pitched in almost a week.
  12. twins_89
    I find it sad that pitch framing is a thing that does actually impact baseball games. I'll be extremely happy when the automated strike zone is put into place at the major league level. I'm just not a fan of the pitch framing "skill", where the whole objective is to try and trick the plate umpire.
  13. twins_89
    After watching Duffey today, I'd definitely put him behind Pagan/Duran and probably behind Smith/Thielbar in a confidence ranking.
  14. twins_89
    It will be interesting to see how the first couple of times through the rotation plays out. I'm somewhat expecting Ryan, Ober, Gray, Bundy, Archer, Paddack, and Winder to each throw 4-5 innings a couple of times. My hope is that when the roster size goes back down, the team settles on the 5 guys who have pitched the best and don't give Bundy/Archer a starter slot by default.
  15. twins_89
    My guess is they will see how the team plays the first few months and if the young starters (plus Bundy/Archer) aren't getting the job done the team will make Correa, Rogers, and Gray available (plus any of Sanchez, Duffey, Archer, Bundy, Smith, Urshela, or Sano that have value). I think there's a real possibility that the Twins will have the best position player (Correa), best reliever (Rogers), and one of the top starters (Gray) available at the trade deadline.
  16. twins_89
    Trading Rogers would be a tough move. The Twins are already really thin on left handed relievers and guys you would be comfortable pitching in the 8th-9th inning.
  17. twins_89
    I think a big part of the concern about Bundy/Archer comes from the poor track record of the front office when making this type of signing. When signing veteran starters who are highly questionable due to age or injury the teams failure rate has been frustratingly high.
  18. twins_89
    I'm not particularly excited about the move, though at this point there really aren't any free agent options that would be clearly better. I just hope that Archer (and Bundy) have a fairly short leash and the team doesn't give them 10-20 starts if its clear they are cooked. Ideally, I'd only want one Archer/Bundy reclamation type of signing, but since the front office whiffed on signing a reliable starter this is what we get.
  19. twins_89
    It is really weird to have spring training starting and have no idea what direction the team is going this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins try to compete by signing Story and trading for another good starter. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the team go into the season with a sub $100M payroll and virtually no chance at the playoffs.
  20. twins_89
    I truly have no idea what the team is trying to do. Everything other than the Gray trade points to the team going into developmental mode with a low payroll. Maybe the Gray deal was just too good to pass up. I could see a scenario where Gray gets flipped for what the front office views as better package than Petty at the trade deadline.
  21. twins_89
    Overall this move makes sense if the team is trying to do a quick rebuild. Getting off Donaldson's contract gives the team more flexibility going forward. Adding up the money in the Twins recent trades shows that the team has actually cut the payroll slightly, meaning the team is currently sitting around $40M below the payroll from recent years. The question is whether the money will be spent or if this really is a tanking/developmental year.
  22. twins_89
    As of today I don't see the Twins having enough pitching to make the playoffs. About the only way I see the playoffs happening with the current roster is if Gray has a great year, Bundy pitches a full year at his 2020 level, Ryan/Ober both take a step forward, and at least one of Balazovic/Woods-Richardson/Duran have a huge breakout year. I am very skeptical that we'll see enough of those things to get the Twins into the top 6 teams in the American league. Maybe there will be additional signings/trades to bolster the pitching staff, but unless something fairly significant happens we are not a playoff team.
  23. twins_89
    I think the value is really good for the Twins, but I'm now very confused on the team's direction. Every move (or more accurately lack of moves) up to this point has been in the direction of the team not competing this year, so this is out of step with the rest of the off-season. By itself this doesn't get the starting rotation up to playoff caliber, so I'll be curious if there is a follow-up move to add another good starter.
  24. twins_89
    I am really starting to feel that the front office is going to treat this season as a developmental year. The complete failure up to this point in putting together a starting rotation (with a payroll under $100M) seems like an indication that we will see a lot of prospects getting significant time this season. I'm expecting to see a lot of the prospects who have already made their MLB debuts (Ryan, Ober, Jax, Moran, Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Celestino, and Gordon) make the opening day roster. I would also expect to see a significant number of the Lewis, Martin, Balazovic, Richardson, Duran, Miranda, Winder, Canterino, Sands, Henriquez, Vallimont, and Strotman group fairly early as well. This is the year where we really find out how good Falvey and Levine are at scouting and developing talent (with a strong emphasis on the development of starting pitching). I won't be surprised to see Donaldson, Sano, Rogers, Bundy, Duffey, and Thielbar getting moved for prospects by the trade deadline (or even before the season starts in some cases). I even wonder if Polanco and Kepler would be available for the right offer.
  25. twins_89
    Having a 3-year stretch of 1st round picks that resulted in Stewart, Gordon, and Jay was a really painful stretch for the organization. Nobody expects every 1st round pick to work out, but whiffing on 3 consecutive top 6 picks was a disaster. The Gordon year I was high on Aaron Nola and was hoping he'd be the pick (which would have been a homerun). The Stewart/Jay years I didn't have a strong preference, so I probably can't complain too much. I guess if I had to pick one year as being the worst it would be the Gordon pick since I thought Nola was by far the best choice.
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