Young For Their League

lightfoot789 · December 16, 2014

In your opinion what age is old to be making your MLB debut and still be viewed as a potential longterm star? The Buxton's and Sano's are the rarity by far for 1 single organization.

ALL CONSIDERED FAN FAVORITES BY TWINS FAITHFUL

Hunter was 23 in his first MLB full season (.309 OBP)

Winfield was 22 in his first full season (took 5 years to hit .300 BA)

Oliva was 25 in first full season (hit .323 BA)

Pucket was 24 in his first full season ( 0 HRs and 31 RBI in 128 games)

Dozier was 26 in his first full season (yet to hit .250 BA)

Mauer was 20 in his first full season (avg. .400 OBP but never scored 100 -ever)

Mientkiewicz was 25 in his first full season (hit .229 BA)

Carew was 21 and hit the ground running (ROY)

Most of these high level prospects took a few seasons at the Big Boy Level to find their groove. Most were not the Buxton's and Sano's and Polanco's of today. Maybe patience isn't that bad of a thing. We loved the guys above for all they did and how they played the game the right way. When they arrive at whatever age, I trust it will be the right age for everyone involved (Fans and Players alike).

KGB · December 16, 2014

Here's some study of when prospects made the majors, looks like the Twins are very slow in getting them up to them majors. They might be young compared in the lower minors, but like Mays and Meyers, after a couple years in AAA they stall the prospects.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018

Seth Stohs · December 16, 2014

In your opinion what age is old to be making your MLB debut and still be viewed as a potential longterm star? The Buxton's and Sano's are the rarity by far for 1 single organization.

ALL CONSIDERED FAN FAVORITES BY TWINS FAITHFUL
Hunter was 23 in his first MLB full season (.309 OBP)
Winfield was 22 in his first full season (took 5 years to hit .300 BA)
Oliva was 25 in first full season (hit .323 BA)
Pucket was 24 in his first full season ( 0 HRs and 31 RBI in 128 games)
Dozier was 26 in his first full season (yet to hit .250 BA)
Mauer was 20 in his first full season (avg. .400 OBP but never scored 100 -ever)
Mientkiewicz was 25 in his first full season (hit .229 BA)
Carew was 21 and hit the ground running (ROY)

Most of these high level prospects took a few seasons at the Big Boy Level to find their groove. Most were not the Buxton's and Sano's and Polanco's of today. Maybe patience isn't that bad of a thing. We loved the guys above for all they did and how they played the game the right way. When they arrive at whatever age, I trust it will be the right age for everyone involved (Fans and Players alike).

It's NEVER too old to make a major league debut. Ask Chris Colabello, Andrew Albers, Chris Coste, Chris Heintz.

Now, to have a Hall of Fame career, of course you'll need to be up by the time you're 24 (and then be lucky enough to not only be really good, but do it for at least a dozen years). Buxton and Sano (should they get up at 21 and 22 - and for sure if they'd been up at 20 and 21) are rarities. I'm guessing a very small percentage of big leaguers made their debut at 20 or less. Think about it, anyone that went to college for even three years will almost automatically be 23 when they get called up AT THE EARLIEST. Winfield is an exception to that.

Lakeside · December 16, 2014

In your opinion what age is old to be making your MLB debut and still be viewed as a potential longterm star? The Buxton's and Sano's are the rarity by far for 1 single organization.

ALL CONSIDERED FAN FAVORITES BY TWINS FAITHFUL
Hunter was 23 in his first MLB full season (.309 OBP)
Winfield was 22 in his first full season (took 5 years to hit .300 BA)
Oliva was 25 in first full season (hit .323 BA)
Pucket was 24 in his first full season ( 0 HRs and 31 RBI in 128 games)
Dozier was 26 in his first full season (yet to hit .250 BA)
Mauer was 20 in his first full season (avg. .400 OBP but never scored 100 -ever)
Mientkiewicz was 25 in his first full season (hit .229 BA)
Carew was 21 and hit the ground running (ROY)

Most of these high level prospects took a few seasons at the Big Boy Level to find their groove. Most were not the Buxton's and Sano's and Polanco's of today. Maybe patience isn't that bad of a thing. We loved the guys above for all they did and how they played the game the right way. When they arrive at whatever age, I trust it will be the right age for everyone involved (Fans and Players alike).

Interesting fact on Winfield. . he actually played about half the season the year before at age 21. Participated for the Gophers in the College World Series, was drafted 4th overall by the Padres, debuted two weeks later for them, and I don't beleive that he ever played a day in the minor leagues, not even on a rehab assignment.

He was one of only three players ever drafted by three sports, NFL, NBA and ABA, and MLB. Of course he was destined to play baseball because he was born in St. Paul on the day Bobby Thompson hit the "Shot heard round the World".

nicksaviking · December 16, 2014

Great data Seth. Glad to see the minor leaguers are ahead of the curve age-wise.

I wish the MLB roster was the same. For a rebuilding team, they have too many players 30+ for my taste..

Edited December 16, 2014 by nicksaviking

dbminn · December 16, 2014

It seems to me that players should be called up when they're mentally and physically prepared for the major leagues.

Lightfoot789, you could add Blyleven (19 years old) and Hrbek (21) to the list. Also, add two excellent players who had their careers cut short: Lyman Bostock (24) and John Castino (24).

KGB, there's a difference between "call-ups" and potential stars. Have the Twins left any potential stars languishing in the minors?

We have all seen that the Twins haven't been shy about calling up young hitters the last two years. We will see more young hitters in the next 18 months.

Our best pitching prospects have been delayed by injuries (Meyers and Gibson). I suspect we will see pitchers like Berrios, Burdi and Reed get to the majors before they're 25 years old in the near future.

brvama · December 16, 2014

As usual Seth good article. It certainly plays well for the future with all the young talent. One problem, being able to retain all this talent. Of course some of that will be taken care of by their progression or lack thereof. Btw, where does Meyer fail?

Thant also to, KGB, great link.

dbminn · December 16, 2014

The Twins also brought up Cristian Guzman, Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla and Johann Santana when they were young (even ignoring Santana's Rule V season).

Seth Stohs · December 16, 2014

It seems to me that players should be called up when they're mentally and physically prepared for the major leagues.

This should be the only criteria that should matter to Terry Ryan, Brad Steil and those decision-makers. Are they ready? Obviously there is no Magic 8-ball that makes that an easy decision on a player. Age shouldn't be a factor.

Seth Stohs · December 16, 2014

As usual Seth good article. It certainly plays well for the future with all the young talent. One problem, being able to retain all this talent. Of course some of that will be taken care of by their progression or lack thereof. Btw, where does Meyer fail? Thant also to, KGB, great link.

We all like Meyer, and we all still like his potential. But there has to be some reason that he hasn't been called up yet. It could be that he has a ton of potential still and they want to make sure that he works out 2-3 things before getting exposed. It could be that they just don't believe that he is ready to be a starter in the big leagues and that maybe his future is as a bullpen guy. My guess is if you were to privately poll a dozen members of the Twins brass that would be educated on him, you'd probably find a 50/50 split.

They aren't keeping Meyer down for any monetary reasons. They've shown plenty of times a willingness to call guys up younger, or at the beginning of the season instead of waiting a month or two. So, it's not that. That tells me that in their belief, it is in the best interest of Meyer to have kept him down to this point.

Monkeypaws · December 16, 2014

Then there is the poster child for rushed prospects, Eddie Bane: straight from ASU to the bigs at 21, out of major league ball by 24.

Mike Sixel · December 16, 2014

Average is a silly measure......it doesn't take into account filler.....what is the age of actual prospects, that's the question.

TRex · December 16, 2014

Average is a silly measure......it doesn't take into account filler.....what is the age of actual prospects, that's the question.

That sounds like a great analysis... I am really looking forward to your next (non-silly) blog!

Seth Stohs · December 16, 2014

Average is a silly measure......it doesn't take into account filler.....what is the age of actual prospects, that's the question.

I acknowledge in the article the reason that average is what it is. But I will also say that these players need to play against the guys with more experience which are the people they're playing against. Also, if you want to define prospect, that's up to you. Anyone that has even the slightest chance to get to the big leagues? Only those that eventually get to the big leagues. I acknowledge that the AAA and to a lesser extent AA average age throws it off, but even if you were to make the AA one 24 and the AAA one 25, you'd still find similar results.

It's more just to give a perspective on what the prospects are doing and where they are.

James · December 16, 2014

Here's some study of when prospects made the majors, looks like the Twins are very slow in getting them up to them majors. They might be young compared in the lower minors, but like Mays and Meyers, after a couple years in AAA they stall the prospects.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018

This is a pretty interesting article. The data shows players getting called up from 2005 - 2009, so it is already 5 years old.

There is something to be said about the prospects of that era as well. For comparison, from 2002 to 2009, the Twins never drafted earlier than 20th overall. In comparison, Tampa, which was much more aggressive in promoting, drafted in the top 5 in all but two of those years (and one year was 2005 where they drafted 8th). That also includes 3 #1 overall picks. So, someone could make the claim that the better talent they were receiving in the draft allowed them to promote players more aggressively.

I'd really like to see this data from 2010 - 2014. I would expect that the Twins have moved further down the list and will be for a few more years.

Mike Sixel · December 16, 2014

Wasn't a criticism, Seth, more an observation. I hate the use of averages all over society. Clearly some of these guys are young for their level.

TheLeviathan · December 16, 2014

Here's some study of when prospects made the majors, looks like the Twins are very slow in getting them up to them majors. They might be young compared in the lower minors, but like Mays and Meyers, after a couple years in AAA they stall the prospects.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018

It's interesting to see the Twins' tendencies in comparison to other teams. It might just have been that five year sample of talent, but it does reinforce the perception that most fans have. Thanks for the link!

Hosken Bombo Disco · December 16, 2014

Is Chih Wei Hu still in the system?

nicksaviking · December 16, 2014

This is a pretty interesting article. The data shows players getting called up from 2005 - 2009, so it is already 5 years old.

There is something to be said about the prospects of that era as well. For comparison, from 2002 to 2009, the Twins never drafted earlier than 20th overall. In comparison, Tampa, which was much more aggressive in promoting, drafted in the top 5 in all but two of those years (and one year was 2005 where they drafted 8th). That also includes 3 #1 overall picks. So, someone could make the claim that the better talent they were receiving in the draft allowed them to promote players more aggressively.

I'd really like to see this data from 2010 - 2014. I would expect that the Twins have moved further down the list and will be for a few more years.

I would agree that the Twins have seemed to have a change of mentality about young players the last several years. At least offensively, several have been called up straight from AA. Pitchers are a different story. My guess is that since they have had such trouble developing them, they are not exactly sure what they need to do to get them ready. Internal debate or second guessing would likely slow down pitchers when they get to the upper levels.

ashbury · December 16, 2014

Age and league is pretty fundamental to how I project a prospect's progress, but only in the context of their performance.

Age does serve as a proxy for having a complete scouting report on a guy, though. I'm letting them do my homework for me, if I say a guy has a chance to be a star. "He's in Ft Myers at age 20? Guess the team thinks a lot of him. Could be in the majors in a couple of years. That other guy there, he's 25; even though he's hitting better, it could be hard for him to get a cup of coffee." Ya think?

Number of years of pro experience also matters. I'm more lenient waiting for a struggling 24 year old who came out of college than if he was signed as a free agent from the Dominican Republic at 16. And outliers like Colabello, who didn't face tough competition in his early twenties, throws off such gauges as well.

I was once 20 years old, and it wouldn't have done a team's prospect list any good to put me at AAA.

Dr. Evil · December 16, 2014

This is a very interesting way to look at young prospects and an enjoyable read. It brings to mind sort of an opinion or theory that I have had on the Twins minor league players.

I think that sometimes the Twins are a bit too fussy in seemingly expecting players to master or dominate a level before they move up. (This may just be a false read on my part though.)

If a player is a good prospect by your estimation and has an average year in single A for example, and he is maybe 22 yrs old, why not kick him up to the next level.

I feel like not every rung on the ladder needs to be golden in order to become a solid major league player. This is where I think maybe the Twins could be more aggressive IMHO.

Monkeypaws · December 16, 2014

Wasn't a criticism, Seth, more an observation. I hate the use of averages all over society. Clearly some of these guys are young for their level.

I always enjoyed seeing the lists of youngest players by league - you get a real feel for who is truly elite on those.

Kind of like this one, except not confined to opening day:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/whos-the-youngest-in-each-league-opening-day-2014/

Hosken Bombo Disco · December 16, 2014

This is a very interesting way to look at young prospects and an enjoyable read. It brings to mind sort of an opinion or theory that I have had on the Twins minor league players.

I think that sometimes the Twins are a bit too fussy in seemingly expecting players to master or dominate a level before they move up. (This may just be a false read on my part though.)

If a player is a good prospect by your estimation and has an average year in single A for example, and he is maybe 22 yrs old, why not kick him up to the next level.

I feel like not every rung on the ladder needs to be golden in order to become a solid major league player. This is where I think maybe the Twins could be more aggressive IMHO.

Agree 100%

Why send Meyer back to AAA and risk him being bored and pissed off. Berrios. I think if Berrios should start at AAA and if he dominates his first half dozen starts then get him to the majors. This is the pattern you see in many respected organizations. These other organizations have lots of young pitchers contributing. Twins may be getting into habit of letting pitching prospects languish. I do give them credit on Gibson however.

Dr. Evil · December 16, 2014

There is a piece in your article that raises another thought on the Twins minor league pipeline with me. I think what I am thinking probably goes against conventional wisdom.

You mention how triple-A isn't so much about prospects as it is about journeyman in the organization that move up and down to provide depth and help the affiliate win games.

In my mind, I see this as an area where the Twins could improve. I feel like this should be a spot for our top prospects to be gathered to play with one another and against major league(almost) caliber players. In other words, provided they are ready, I want guys like Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, Pinto, Hicks playing together at the AAA level.

I'm not real fond of hoarding a pack of journeymen at AAA. I would rather call up the most ready organizational prospect to fill in. Most guys need a few cups of coffee to help them bridge the gap from AAA to the majors anyway. Wouldn't if be more logical to say to Polanco, "Dozier strained a quad. We just need you to come up and fill in for 3 games." There is no pressure in that for Polanco. He comes up, does his best, learns something, and goes back with a better idea of what it takes to reach the majors.

Again, this probably goes against conventional wisdom. But, it would seem that some type of fundamental change like this might help develop the kids and get them through the system quicker and more frequently.

Seth Stohs · December 16, 2014

Is Chih Wei Hu still in the system?

Yup, and after his 2014 season, he moved up all of our prospect lists...

http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/sethspeaks

Seth Stohs · December 16, 2014

There is a piece in your article that raises another thought on the Twins minor league pipeline with me. I think what I am thinking probably goes against conventional wisdom.

You mention how triple-A isn't so much about prospects as it is about journeyman in the organization that move up and down to provide depth and help the affiliate win games.

In my mind, I see this as an area where the Twins could improve. I feel like this should be a spot for our top prospects to be gathered to play with one another and against major league(almost) caliber players. In other words, provided they are ready, I want guys like Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, Pinto, Hicks playing together at the AAA level.

I'm not real fond of hoarding a pack of journeymen at AAA. I would rather call up the most ready organizational prospect to fill in. Most guys need a few cups of coffee to help them bridge the gap from AAA to the majors anyway. Wouldn't if be more logical to say to Polanco, "Dozier strained a quad. We just need you to come up and fill in for 3 games." There is no pressure in that for Polanco. He comes up, does his best, learns something, and goes back with a better idea of what it takes to reach the majors.

Again, this probably goes against conventional wisdom. But, it would seem that some type of fundamental change like this might help develop the kids and get them through the system quicker and more frequently.

I'm not a fan of hoarding guys there... But, for instance, with Deibinson Romero gone and Miguel Sano likely shaking off rust for awhile in AA, I would have no problem with the Twins signing a AAA/AAAA caliber 3B to fill the Rochester roster until Sano is ready. Might be the same with guys like Rosario and Polanco and Turner and Burdi and Reed and Michael and Rogers and Wheeler and, and, and...

AA is considered the level with the best prospects. They're seeing the best fastballs and good sliders and guys that are young, motivated and just need a little more refinement.

AAA is an area with older guys who have learned a lot in their time. The fastballs may not be as good, but pitchers are pretty savvy and know how to get punk-kid hitters out.

They are different and yet both can be valuable in that, the big leaguers have pretty good stuff and know-how...

It's this kind of discussion that just fascinates me about minor league baseball.

Seth Stohs · December 16, 2014

This is a very interesting way to look at young prospects and an enjoyable read. It brings to mind sort of an opinion or theory that I have had on the Twins minor league players.

I think that sometimes the Twins are a bit too fussy in seemingly expecting players to master or dominate a level before they move up. (This may just be a false read on my part though.)

If a player is a good prospect by your estimation and has an average year in single A for example, and he is maybe 22 yrs old, why not kick him up to the next level.

I feel like not every rung on the ladder needs to be golden in order to become a solid major league player. This is where I think maybe the Twins could be more aggressive IMHO.

I'm with you in one way... The only way we're able to see if they "dominate" the league is through the stats. Often I read people wanting guys rushed up because they are killing the ball for 3 weeks or a month... a lot of times, those guys will get figured out. Sometimes experiencing that struggle and then making the adjustments is for the best.

Coaches that watch and interact with these guys every day are the ones who likely know best. It's not just about the numbers. It's about defense. It's about approach at the plate and in the field. It's about maturity.

So, I don't fully agree with the need to 'dominate' a league statistically to move up, but I do agree with having a bunch of check boxes marked off before moving guys up.

lightfoot789 · December 17, 2014

My concern with prospects and their leagues is that promotions matter. I find no benefit with leaving a promising prospect in the same league for this reason:

1. If you promote a prospect mid season - the benefit goes to the prospect because teams have yet to have a true scouting report on him. They have a report, but nothing like the ones managers utilize after seeing a guy 5 to 10 games by mid season.

2. If a prospect is held at a level for an entire season to work on (whatever) - advantage opposing teams. Those managers have seen a prospect a gazillion times and can now throw out new pitchers or new hitters who were just promoted to attack such prospect. That held back prospect does not benefit from seeing the same people to adjust to any particular thing. 2nd half teams across the minors are generally new in make up.

3. You don't find promising prospects repeating levels for an entire year. They get promoted and tend to repeat the first half of a previous season to see if they in fact have mastered concepts and approaches. Many times they are seeing the same players they faced the previous second half of a season. Recall matters in baseball. Tendencies matter in baseball. Advantage to the guy who can make those overall adjustments. To the guy who knows what he needs to work on in the off season because he's been there already.

We expect Vargas and Santana to be better prepared for the MLB this year because they had a sniff of what it's like. They have seen pitchers and hitters within their division already. Now through their coaches and manager they can better prepare for their new season as to what to expect and why.

I firmly believe that holding back a promising prospect is not as simple as "work on this / work on that". I think that when writers talk about a prospects struggle to adjust after seeing a team a whole year, they are not holding into account that those managers are the same but the players they face are mostly new.

The Wise One · December 17, 2014

Here's some study of when prospects made the majors, looks like the Twins are very slow in getting them up to them majors. They might be young compared in the lower minors, but like Mays and Meyers, after a couple years in AAA they stall the prospects.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018

While people chimed in about confirming what they thought about age in this article, they missed that these later in the draft choices produced a better warp than most systems.

lightfoot789 · December 17, 2014

While people chimed in about confirming what they thought about age in this article, they missed that these later in the draft choices produced a better warp than most systems.

Agreed.

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How many games will the Minnesota Twins win in 2026?