One Twins Pitching Prospect is Completing a Journey of Resilience and Determination

How about a dominant multi inning reliever that can go two or three innings. Those kind of relief pitchers are incredibly valuable.

I have no idea if slider spin of 3178 RPM is something a human arm can do for 180 innings a season.

5 years between college and pro level. 99 innings. I hope he invested wisely in what was left of his $ 1.8 million signing bonus.  It is hard to see how he would ever build up to be a starter. As a reliever he could show up much sooner. Still it would a few years to get him to a 60 inning reliever workload 

It's too early to pull the plug on starting. He's got six months to keep building strength for next year. Let's see what next year brings. 

We'll see if he can start, but it's too early to decide he's a reliever.  He has really only had 1 injury, missed a bunch of time due to having it at the worst possible time, and then didn't recover properly.  This isn't like Canterino where he keeps getting different injuries.

Too early to giveup on starting him

I had high hopes for Canterino & they keep trying to keep him as a starter but where did that get him? With constant arm problems like Canterino, I don't see him ever becoming a SP. IMO they should focus him as a RP & wait & see if he get through these injuries then maybe try him at SP

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I had high hopes for Canterino & they keep trying to keep him as a starter but where did that get him? With constant arm problems like Canterino, I don't see him ever becoming a SP. IMO they should focus him as a RP & wait & see if he get through these injuries then maybe try him at SP

I am not sure it was constant arm issues for Priellip,  he had the tommy john and then the brace.  1 injury that took 2 surgeries to repair.  Now if he is torqueing the arm too hard which continually tears down the elbow, that is one thing,  which could be accurate,  but making him a reliever now without even seeing if he can hold up to be an elite starter seems immensely short sited.   Good relievers are so much easier to find and cheaper than good starters.  The risk reward heavily favors continuing to develop him as a starter.  

55 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think you can blame Canterino's situation on them using him as a starter. He averaged just over 3 innings a start in the minors. 

Maxed out at 72 pitches his first year. Went 63, 83, 79, 60, 26, and 40 in pitches thrown in 2021. And only cracked 60 pitches 3 times in 13 appearances in 2022. As others have mentioned, he's had numerous different injuries. In Spring Training this year he threw 14 pitches on 2/29 and 21 pitches on 3/6 before hurting his rotator cuff and then hurting it again without throwing a single in-game pitch this season. He's an outlier that you can't compare to much of anything. Not everything bad that happens is because somebody did something wrong. Sometimes a guy's body just can't hold up. See Buxton, Byron as another example.

As for Prielipp, I'd hope they have him on a plan to build up his innings over the next few years to see if he can be a starter. The Garrett Crochet route would be a great result for Connor. They have a lot of smart people looking at his medicals and they should make the best decisions to maximize his career. Whether that be in the pen or the rotation or a combination over the years.

I wasn't blaming them for using him as a starter because as you said he never got to that point but their focus was on SP not RP which makes a difference in preparation. I wasn't even blaming the Twins for doing that. As I expressed IMO I think it'd be better to focus Prelipp at RP 1st.

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It meant he had more days in between throwing not very many pitches. This is along the same line of your statements that the Twins could still have Paddack and Ryan if they'd just have had Varland in long relief and making spot starts. That isn't based on anything real. Injuries happen. All the time. The most likely answer with Canterino and Prielipp is there's very little the Twins could have done to prevent their injuries.

We probably will never agree, What is real is common sense. Starting pitching puts extreme pressure on the arm & if you increase the intensity on the arm over an extended amount of time you are asking for trouble. The rate that Ryan was pitching, he'd far past his past innings pitched, Paddack was pitching in his 1st year returning from 2nd TJ, he was pitching at a rate that far exceeded his previous innings pitched. Common sense is all you can go by. I don't think there is anything you can measure scientificly on each individual to see what the arm can take. Injuries may happen no matter what but if they are managed they are fewer & less severe IMO that is common sense. Common sense tells you not to jump off a cliff

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

It meant he had more days in between throwing not very many pitches. This is along the same line of your statements that the Twins could still have Paddack and Ryan if they'd just have had Varland in long relief and making spot starts. That isn't based on anything real. Injuries happen. All the time. The most likely answer with Canterino and Prielipp is there's very little the Twins could have done to prevent their injuries.

I agree with you there. But the odds would be better if they manage better their innings going forward. Some what like they have been doing with Raya starting with 2-3 innings & closely monitoring their arms. Even with management, there is no guarantee that either will ever make it to the MLB w/o injuries cutting it short.

11 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree with you there. But the odds would be better if they manage better their innings going forward. Some what like they have been doing with Raya starting with 2-3 innings & closely monitoring their arms. Even with management, there is no guarantee that either will ever make it to the MLB w/o injuries cutting it short.

I'd like to clarify that Prelipp & Canterino are totally different than Raya. Raya is a young pitcher who is susceptible to injury, drafted young. Prelipp & Canterino's arms were shot when drafted. Therefore since Raya's innings have been monitored he hasn't had any serious injuries & is on his way to a possible prosperous SP career, although he might start out in the MLB as an opener. While Prelipp & Canterino development would need a longer & more stringent pitch count regiment to get them back on track & are probably doomed to the BP long term IMO. Any SP role IMO would be short-term & limited.

IMO since Prelipp, the Twins will probably steer away from drafting damaged pitching prospects & SPs from Rice. & focus more on prep high-end arms so they can properly develop them.

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd like to clarify that Prelipp & Canterino are totally different than Raya. Raya is a young pitcher who is susceptible to injury, drafted young. Prelipp & Canterino's arms were shot when drafted. Therefore since Raya's innings have been monitored he hasn't had any serious injuries & is on his way to a possible prosperous SP career, although he might start out in the MLB as an opener. While Prelipp & Canterino development would need a longer & more stringent pitch count regiment to get them back on track & are probably doomed to the BP long term IMO. Any SP role IMO would be short-term & limited.

IMO since Prelipp, the Twins will probably steer away from drafting damaged pitching prospects & SPs from Rice. & focus more on prep high-end arms so they can properly develop them.

They drafted 12 college pitchers and 1 prep pitcher this year.  12 & 2 last year.  That trend has been going on for a few years.  I doubt we see them drafting enough prep arms to call it a focus.

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's 23 (will be 24 before the next season).....at the absolute earliest as a starter, he'd be 26, if all goes perfectly......I'm guessing more like 27. That's a long time not to make money.....

Mike it is relative,  he signed a 1.825 million contract.  Yes taxes and yes he has expenses but can use some of the money for living expenses and can have it earn money as well.  As to his track.  I could see him in the big leagues in 2026 on an innings limitation if all goes well next year.  Could start in AA, or continue in A+ ball and moved to AA mid year.  Then starting in AAA in 2026.   Innings at 110 to 120 next year.  140 to 150 in 2026.  

44 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They drafted 12 college pitchers and 1 prep pitcher this year.  12 & 2 last year.  That trend has been going on for a few years.  I doubt we see them drafting enough prep arms to call it a focus.

I stated "high-end" draft picks meaning basically 1st round in reference to prep arms. I don't see lower picks change any from picking college arms. 

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I stated "high-end" draft picks meaning basically 1st round in reference to prep arms. I don't see lower picks change any from picking college arms. 

They have been willing to take a high school arm generally in the first 3 rounds,  Questad is an anomoly in my mind.  That he was willing to take 500k.  But for him, it actually might work out ok.  Need to see where he is next year, but this year was a little rough for him.  As to the Twins they are taking 1 very high upside high school/college arm in most drafts.  Here are the high school picks.  

2017  2nd Landon Leach   3rd Blayne Enlow

2018 - none  

2019 - none  (Canterino 2nd)   

Ignore 2020 draft

2021 -  1st  Petty 

2022 -  none  (picked Priellip in second)

2023-   CB Soto ,  5th Questad

2024 - CB 2nd round  Dasan Hill

Other than 2018 they took a high end arm in the first 3 rounds.  It has generally leaned towards more high school pitchers,  but they will take a high end arm whether it is college or high school , in those early rounds.  

40 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

They have been willing to take a high school arm generally in the first 3 rounds,  Questad is an anomoly in my mind.  That he was willing to take 500k.  But for him, it actually might work out ok.  Need to see where he is next year, but this year was a little rough for him.  As to the Twins they are taking 1 very high upside high school/college arm in most drafts.  Here are the high school picks.  

2017  2nd Landon Leach   3rd Blayne Enlow

2018 - none  

2019 - none  (Canterino 2nd)   

Ignore 2020 draft

2021 -  1st  Petty 

2022 -  none  (picked Priellip in second)

2023-   CB Soto ,  5th Questad

2024 - CB 2nd round  Dasan Hill

 

Other than 2018 they took a high end arm in the first 3 rounds.  It has generally leaned towards more high school pitchers,  but they will take a high end arm whether it is college or high school , in those early rounds.  

Thank you Hawkeye for this info. IMO in the recent past Twins didn't have much luck with high-end prep  pitching draftees & was quick to unload Petty instead of keeping & developing him. But IMO they have figured it out and went heavy in '23 & '24 by picking up 3 high-end prep pitchers they liked.

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I stated "high-end" draft picks meaning basically 1st round in reference to prep arms. I don't see lower picks change any from picking college arms. 

My bad.  I didn't catch that part of it.  I would not have minded if they took Cam Caminiti instead of Culpepper with their 1st round pick.

13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

My bad.  I didn't catch that part of it.  I would not have minded if they took Cam Caminiti instead of Culpepper with their 1st round pick.

NP. Basically 1st round for high-end can & should go a bit further down. Was Caminiti available? I have to admit I wasn't invested as much this past year.

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thank you Hawkeye for this info. IMO in the recent past Twins didn't have much luck with high-end prep  pitching draftees & was quick to unload Petty instead of keeping & developing him. But IMO they have figured it out and went heavy in '23 & '24 by picking up 3 high-end prep pitchers they liked.

They liked Petty and Leach and Enlow when they drafted them, too. They "unloaded" Petty because it was a great deal to get two very reasonably priced years of Sonny Gray (plus a 1st round pick) for just one A-ball pitching prospect. It was a bargain price then and in hindsight one of the best trades this front office has made.