Why The Twins May Opt For Short-Term SP Commitment

First of all, when you look at the upper tier of free agent starters beyond Darvish, there are an awful lot of question marks. Arrieta turns 32 in March and has steadily declined since his Cy Young season in 2015. Cobb has never thrown 180 innings in a campaign and had one of the league's worst swinging strike rates in 2017. Lynn's secondary numbers leave much to be desired.

Even in a depressed market, all of these hurlers are likely looking at contracts of at least three years. And while the Twins shouldn't hesitate to take that leap for someone they truly believe in (such as Darvish), committing long-term to a player they harbor serious doubts over would be questionable.

Also, there's this: The Twins are going to have a much clearer idea of the long-term outlook for their rotation after the 2018 season. Right now there are so many things up in the air. Such as:

* Will Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, or another of the near-ready top prospects debut and do enough to establish himself as a staple going forward?

* Will Phil Hughes bounce back and reassert himself as a credible option for 2019, his last year under contract?

* Will Trevor May return from Tommy John surgery at full strength and lock down a rotation spot going forward? (He's under team control for two more years and the Twins might consider an extension if he looks good this summer.)

* Will Ervin Santana reach 200 innings, thus guaranteeing his 2019 option?

These are but a few of the many moving parts in Minnesota's starting pitching layout, creating a level of ambiguity that makes planning ahead somewhat difficult. There's no such thing as too many quality starters, of course, but you'd better be damn sure you're adding serious quality on any long-term deal.

For example, if the Twins exit 2018 feeling pretty good about a rotation that includes Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves, Adalberto Mejia and May, but they're locked into Santana, Hughes and – say – Lynn for close to $50 million total in 2019, that's... far from ideal.

If, on the other hand, the Twins identify someone they can sign to a one-year deal and feel reasonably confident in, that leaves them with very convenient flexibility. At the end of 2018, they'll have the option to move on from that player, as well as Kyle Gibson and perhaps Santana. Add in expiring contracts for Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier, and this would potentially give Derek Falvey and Thad Levine free rein to do just about anything they'd like in terms of building the team to their exact specifications.

The problem is this: The Twins need to be in win-now mode, and typically you're not going to acquire a high-caliber pitcher on a one-year deal. These are usually reclamation projects or poor performers seeking to recoup value.

Then again, this offseason is anything but typical. As spring training draws nearer and desperation mounts, it is entirely possible that a few fairly good pitchers will say screw it and settle for a high-dollar contract for 2018, hoping to pitch well and hit the market again next winter when things theoretically return to a state of normalcy.

There are few if any better places for such a starter to land than in Minnesota, where he would work in front of the game's best outfield defense, and with the backing of a high-powered lineup.

So let's take a look at a few candidates that might fit this mold. They won't all enthuse you, but I'd suggest they might all be more realistic than Darvish – and more logical than Cobb or Lynn – at this point.

Jake Arrieta, RHP

He seems to be the No. 2 starter on the market, but Arrieta has drawn shockingly little interest. Most notably, the Cubs have seemingly made little effort to re-sign the 2015 Cy Young winner, and that's pretty troubling. His sagging secondary numbers and velocity make Arrieta an iffy long-term proposition, but what if the Scott Boras client were willing to sign for something like one year, $30 million?

Trevor Cahill, RHP

Much depends on health here. Cahill was traded to Kansas City following an excellent first half in San Diego but tanked after the move, battling a shoulder impingement issue down the stretch. His numbers as a starter for the Padres (3.69 ERA, .712 OPS, 72-to-24 K/BB in 61 innings) offer hope that he could be a dominant force if his arm is right. In the Offseason Handbook we predicted he would score a one-year, $12 million deal. Even that seems high now.

Jaime Garcia, LHP

Garcia was a Twin very briefly in late July, and pitched well in his lone start. All in all, 2017 saw the lefty put up the highest fastball velocity and strikeout rate of his career. This was offset, however, by a mediocre 4.41 ERA and a poor finish in New York. He probably expected to be fielding multi-year offers this offseason but it seems clear at this point that if he gets one it won't be for nearly the money he wants. Garcia may be best served to bet on himself with a one-year pact. Familiarity, in addition to the favorable setting, could draw him to Minnesota. It'd be kinda funny if both he and Zack Littell were pitching in the Twins rotation at some point.

Jason Vargas, LHP

The left-hander has had zero buzz around him in free agency, which is a little odd coming off a season in which he won 18 games and made the All-Star team. Vargas was brutal in the final two months of 2017 (6.49 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) but has been a steadily solid pitcher throughout his career and at 35 would bring the veteran presence factor.

Chris Tillman, RHP

I can already envision the backlash if the Twins sign Tillman as the final piece in their rotation. And I get it. He was beyond awful last year (7.84 ERA, 1.89 WHIP). But Minnesota has checked in on the right-hander, and I get the sense they view him as a legit option. He'd cost next to nothing ($5 million?), is still under 30, and in 2016 went 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA in 30 starts for the O's. When healthy, Tillman has generally held his own in a very tough division. I'm not saying I'd be inspired by this move, but if the Twins sign him I'll trust that the condition of his arm checked out. Ideally, the savings here would be applied elsewhere.

Do you agree with the rationale behind seeking a starter on a one-year deal? Or do you feel it's top tier or bust?