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    Week in Review: Opening Salvos

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    Our inclination to inflate the importance of Opening Day is only natural. After a long winter, that date becomes the singular focus of baseball fans everywhere.

    Opening Day roster, Opening Day lineup, Opening Day outcome. The perceived significance of each is overblown. We all know it. But still, impressions from Minnesota's impressive performance during the season's first weekend, and especially Opening Day, are hard to shake.

    Image courtesy of David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 3/25 through Sun, 3/31

    ***

    Record Last Week: 2-1 (Overall: 2-1)

    Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +7)

    Standing: Tied for 1st Place in AL Central

    HIGHLIGHTS

    The powered-up Twins pitching staff is already on display, setting a new franchise record with 39 strikeouts through their first three games.

    On Thursday and Saturday, Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi became the second starting duo in history to open a season with back-to-back double-digit strikeout totals. The feat was only previously accomplished by Arizona's Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in 2001 – arguably the greatest SP tandem in major-league history. No biggie.

    On Sunday, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez piggybacked for 11 strikeouts over 7 2/3 combined innings, continuing the run of rotation dominance against a diminished Cleveland lineup (sans Francisco Lindor).

    You can knock the quality of the opposition, but I would respond with two points:

    1) There's nothing misleading about the results this group achieved. Everyone looked fantastic. Berrios unleashed a barrage of filthy breaking balls and mixed in an upgraded changeup. Odorizzi was changing speeds and eye levels expertly. Pineda pounded the zone with heavy stuff. Perez constantly worked inside with the same 95-97 MPH heat he was flashing in spring training. There was no smoke-and-mirrors behind this magic.

    And, 2) The Indians aren't THAT beat-up. They're missing their best hitter in Lindor, yes, but fellow absentee Jason Kipnis hasn't been a factor in recent years. I mean, the fact that Tyler Naquin and Jake Bauers were Cleveland's #3 hitters in this series is really quite stunning. The qualitative difference between these two offenses was starkly apparent.

    One of the most interesting aspects of this Twins team coming into the season, from my view, was the legitimately high-powered starting corps, which has come along so far since five years ago. In total, the four starters combined for 47 swinging strikes on 310 pitches, a remarkable 15.1% whiff rate. For context, only three qualified MLB starters induced swinging strikes at a higher percentage in 2018: Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Carlos Carrasco (who the Twins knocked around in Sunday's series finale).

    Meanwhile, the bullpen was effective for the most part. Rocco Baldelli rotated through all six of his relievers and got scoreless appearances from five of them, with Taylor Rogers going twice and looking particularly crisp.

    So, early returns on new pitching coach Wes Johnson and his staff are resoundingly positive.

    The offense was mostly quiet in the opening series, facing the unenviable assignments of Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer in the season's first two games. Both enter this campaign as Cy Young frontrunners, and each looked the part in helping hold Minnesota's potent lineup to three runs on six hits through 18 innings.

    But Nelson Cruz made an impact in all three games as the Twins' new #3 hitter. He set up Marwin Gonzalez' game-winning hit on Thursday with a leadoff single in the seventh against Kluber. He drove in Minnesota's lone run on Saturday with some impressive bat-handling against Bauer. And he keyed the offense's breakout on Sunday by going 3-for-5 with the club's first home run of the year.

    The other most noteworthy performer was Byron Buxton. Fears of a post-spring drought quickly disappeared as he went 4-for-10 with three doubles and only two strikeouts in his first series. Last year, his third double came on May 12th. In 2017, he didn't get his fourth hit until almost two weeks into the season.

    It's certainly a modest benchmark but this is easily the best start of Buxton's career. Seeing him fired up and pumping his fists at second on Sunday after delivering a key two-run double – with two outs, on an 0-2 count – was the most invigorating sight for me on a weekend that offered plenty to choose from in that regard.

    LOWLIGHTS

    There wasn't a whole lot to dislike in these first three games. The Twins won two of them in fairly convincing fashion, and fell short by one run in the other. The final inning of that loss provides the only real fodder for grievances.

    Blake Parker was the only Twins pitcher to struggle in the entire series, and it wasn't because he got hit hard. The Arkansas native simply could not find any semblance of control in the chilly weather on Saturday. Carlos Santana singled, then moved from first to third on a pair of wild pitches. Parker walked Hanley Ramirez and fell behind Greg Allen 2-0 before allowing a sacrifice fly to deep center.

    The outing was uglier to watch than it looks on paper: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB. All things considered, if that's your most disastrous pitching performance in a series you can feel pretty good.

    And the Twins were well positioned to get that run back in the bottom half. Buxton led off against Cleveland closer Brad Hand with a wind-aided "double" to the shallow outfield. Baldelli then curiously elected not to use a pinch-hitter for Max Kepler, despite Hand's record of pure dominance against lefty swingers.

    https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1112097886546915329

    Kepler struck out, and the rally went on to fall short. Presumably, Baldelli is just trying to show confidence in his core guys, but turning to a contact machine like Willians Astudillo in that spot – speedy runner on second, no outs, deepest bench the Twins will have all year – seemed like such an obvious call that it was surprising not to see it from the ostensibly analytical thinker. Will loyalty outweigh logic in the future? Something to watch.

    In general, Kepler is off to a slow start, as is fellow corner outfielder Eddie Rosario (combined 1-for-22), but there's no reason to worry about either.

    TRENDING STORYLINE

    There's only one active Twins pitcher we haven't seen yet. It's kind of crazy that the rotation showed such incredible swing-and-miss proficiency in the opening series without its reigning whiff leader.

    Kyle Gibson spent his spring trying to regain strength and weight following a nasty winter bout with E. coli. He admitted after his last exhibition start – an ugly clunker against the Red Sox – that he still wasn't quite back to where he ideally wanted to be. So it's not surprising to see the Twins giving him as much time as they possibly can; Gibson's first start will come after Berrios takes his second turn on Tuesday in Kansas City.

    How will he look? Gibson's success last year was fueled by career-high velocity, so any sapped voltage might have a material impact. But if he's mostly back to form, this rotation has a chance to start generating some real enthusiasm in short order.

    DOWN ON THE FARM

    Minor-league games haven't started yet, and in fact official rosters for the affiliates haven't even been announced yet. But that will all come this week, with Minor League Opening Day on Thursday.

    Make sure you stay tuned into Twins Daily for unparalleled coverage of the team's system and prospects. I'll be recapping the most noteworthy developments in this space each Sunday night, but the day-to-day minor-league coverage on this site is beyond robust and comprehensive. Thanks in advance to all of the people who work hard to make it possible: Seth, Cody, Tom, Steve, Ted, Matt... can't wait to read all of your reports this summer.

    LOOKING AHEAD

    Following a successful home kickoff, the Twins embark on a seven-game road trip with four off days sprinkled in. Baldelli will have a deep bench and rested bullpen as he tours through two National League parks, starting with Philadelphia next weekend.

    TUESDAY, 4/2: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Brad Keller

    WEDNESDAY, 4/3: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Homer Bailey

    FRIDAY, 4/5: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Nick Pivetta

    SATURDAY, 4/6: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Jake Arrieta

    SUNDAY, 4/7: TWINS @ PHILLIES – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Zach Eflin

    Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

    Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

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    Featured Comments

    Channing1964

    Channing1964 578

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    i didnt get to see that game but this is exactly the situation when i say you have to manage with your heart and not your folder full of analytics mumbo jumbo. Who in there right mind wouldn't have pinch hit for Kepler in that situation? A bunch of information showing you how excellent Astidillo is at handling the bat doesnt tell you he should be up in that situation? And this decision came from a "forward thinking analytics friendly" manager? Wow! IMO this kind of thing contradicts everything this FO has tried to force feed us. Let me see, man on second, down by one at home, nobody out.(AND, the runner is Buxton) Hmmmm what should I do....OMG....HMMMM....Why wont Derek answer my calls ...OMG....im running out of time...LET HIM HIT....I know...he has no chance in hell...the analytics tell me.... Now old school thinking in order of the first thoughts in my head. Pinch hit Astudillo for Kepler(or maybe even Austin), have Kepler bunt him over because in extra innings i dont wanna lose Kepler's defense out there, or three, try to steal third. Not once does having him swing away enter my mind in that situation. Molitor would have won that game. (i know....but I'm just sayin...lol)

    yarnivek1972

    yarnivek1972 6,290

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    i didnt get to see that game but this is exactly the situation when i say you have to manage with your heart and not your folder full of analytics mumbo jumbo. Who in there right mind wouldn't have pinch hit for Kepler in that situation? A bunch of information showing you how excellent Astidillo is at handling the bat doesnt tell you he should be up in that situation? And this decision came from a "forward thinking analytics friendly" manager? Wow! IMO this kind of thing contradicts everything this FO has tried to force feed us. Let me see, man on second, down by one at home, nobody out.(AND, the runner is Buxton) Hmmmm what should I do....OMG....HMMMM....Why wont Derek answer my calls ...OMG....im running out of time...LET HIM HIT....I know...he has no chance in hell...the analytics tell me.... Now old school thinking in order of the first thoughts in my head. Pinch hit Astudillo for Kepler(or maybe even Austin), have Kepler bunt him over because in extra innings i dont wanna lose Kepler's defense out there, or three, try to steal third. Not once does having him swing away enter my mind in that situation. Molitor would have won that game. (i know....but I'm just sayin...lol)

    It should be noted that Buxton was the tying run. Not the winning run.

    ScrapTheNickname

    ScrapTheNickname 3,577

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    I'm not sure that's true. If you believe in Run Expectancy (which you may not), there's a lower probability of scoring from 3rd with 1 out than there is from 2nd with 0 outs. In fact, one could make a claim that an outfield single with Buxton on 2nd scores him easily. Similar to having a Trout at abat, you have an elite baserunner on 2nd.

    Thank you.

    Dantes929

    Dantes929 4,640

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    My biggest takeaway are the doubles Buxton has hit, specifically the last one. He had two strikes on him and he SMOKED the ball

    Enough of this talk about having him bunt and beat the ball on the ground. Hit the hard and often.

    I don't know about beat the ball on the ground but enough of this talk about not bunting.    He should absolutely be bunting and often.     Unless there are guys on base his bunts are the equivalent of doubles since he soon steals 2nd.    In essence, is he more likely to get a base hit bunting or swinging away?     I think he is more likely to get on by bunting and by a fair margin.   Its exciting, it gets under the skin of the opposing team and it is a slump buster.    If he's not bunting he is diminishing his best tool which is his speed.

    Dantes929

    Dantes929 4,640

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

     

     . If you simply manage by the spread sheet, you could probably get some 30 something guy to manage who has never managed a baseball game in his life, and stick him in the dugout?

    I'm no where near convinced the results would be much different.    Now of course Kepler swinging away could have turned out well but the guy with the spreadsheet probably doesn't keep an 0-7 guy in against a lefty specialist. and either puts in a guy that is likely to make contact or someone more likely to get a bunt down.    Of course there is a fair chance that that won't work either so I am not giving a full WAR to the guy with the spreadsheet but I am giving him an edge.    I'm not big on hindsight but I think there were definitely those out there questioning the non move before the results were in.

    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 10,637

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I don't know about beat the ball on the ground but enough of this talk about not bunting.    He should absolutely be bunting and often.     Unless there are guys on base his bunts are the equivalent of doubles since he soon steals 2nd.    In essence, is he more likely to get a base hit bunting or swinging away?     I think he is more likely to get on by bunting and by a fair margin.   Its exciting, it gets under the skin of the opposing team and it is a slump buster.    If he's not bunting he is diminishing his best tool which is his speed.

    I don’t think it is that easy to bunt. It takes good hands and pitch recognition. It takes hard work which I don’t think anyone doubts about Buxton. The downside of bunting is getting behind early in the count and then having to fight to get back in the count. You really need good pitch recognition to win that battle.

     

    He just had a series where he had two hits that rank as his top two exit velocities of his career. I would rather he put the majority of work towards barreling up the ball.

    ewen21

    ewen21 1,439

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    If he doesn't know how to bunt effectively yet then it's probably too late to push it on him now. It's a lost art and guys just don't make that part of their routine. It's been hard enough having him figure out how to hit and now that it looks like he might be there we are going to ask him to bunt?

     

    No way. Carlos Gomez felt the need to bunt under the Gardy regime and he was a complete basket case with that. I don't want Buxton thinking "should I bunt here?"

     

    No. Go up there thinking about a pitch and drive that thing hard. Would be nice to see him use the right/centerfield gap more but one step at a time. At least he has a few hits and well struck ones at that

    TheLeviathan

    TheLeviathan 20,987

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Yeah, I'm with Parker Hageman on Team #NoBunt so I agree with you. They needed someone who could put the ball in play, find a hole, and Buxton scores easily from 2nd base.

    I was disappointed Baldelli left Kepler in and swing away when he's not seeing the ball well. Plus, Brad Hand is elite against LH batters.

     

    Right, not a good call.  But Rocco is new and this is something he hopefully learns from.  Managers get to do that too, :)

    Dantes929

    Dantes929 4,640

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I don’t think it is that easy to bunt. It takes good hands and pitch recognition. It takes hard work which I don’t think anyone doubts about Buxton. The downside of bunting is getting behind early in the count and then having to fight to get back in the count. You really need good pitch recognition to win that battle.

    He just had a series where he had two hits that rank as his top two exit velocities of his career. I would rather he put the majority of work towards barreling up the ball.

    I don't think bunting is easy but at the same time I think Buxton showed some strong signs of being good at it in 2017.   I don't know how many bunt hits he had that year but I think it was enough to keep him in the lineup that year when the rest of his offense was struggling.    Once he got the rest of his offense going it was still a great weapon.    IMO it enhances the rest of his offensive game, it doesn't diminish it.   Last year I saw him bunt once.    It was a sacrifice right back to the pitcher and he still beat it out.   

     

     https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/12/10/3748738/best-bunter-all-time-career-bunt-hits-bases-empty-mlb

     

    Why is it so hard to find stats for bunts?     Anyone know what Buxton's BABIP is for bunts?

    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 10,637

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The stats I have seen for bunts are skewed. They only count successful bunts. They don’t count the failed bunt attempts that put the hitter behind in the count and don’t end in a bunt attempt. If the data doesn’t account for those failures all bunters will look pretty good.

    DocBauer

    DocBauer 22,263

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Absolutely NOT picking on anyone or any single opinion stated! Just find it interesting and humorous...but that's baseball...that there is so much debate about players and the manager after THREE GAMES, lol.

     

    I think Astudillo should have PH for Kepler in the same situation. Who knows what would have happened? And I am NOT attempting to open a debate after THREE GAMES as to the merit of Kepler hitting leadoff. But I think it's funny to question it at this point. Kid has TONS of talent, has shown flashes, has embraced his role, had a good ST, knkws how to take good AB and make contact, take BB, as nas spoken recently about continuing to do so while also changing his approach to being more aggressive at the same time. It's not a moxioron. Its about believing in yourself and your talent and approach. It's about being aggressive when you see a good pitch, but still holding back. (The opposite of Sano and Buxton last season, but that's a different discussion entirely)!

     

    Gladden made a great comment the other day about Kepler hitting #1 in regard to the past when you were just looking for that speed guy at the top of the order. But it's more now about OB. His comment was Kepler shouldn't necessarily try to change his entire approach, but rather, just be the best hitter he could be. Especially in a lineup that appears to be deep and he won't be leading off every inning.

    DocBauer

    DocBauer 22,263

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Part 2:

     

    It's VERY early. 3 games! 3 early and cold games where the ppitchers may have an advantage due to dead air and cold temps. And yes, the Indians lineup isn't exactly stacked.

     

    But guess what? The cold temperatures don't just affect the hitters, they affect the pitchers as well. I am no expert, but can you imagine keeping your arm loose, and trying to feel the ball when the temp is in the 30-40 degree range?

     

    No matter the Indians roster, they have 3 of the top 10-15 SP in the AL. The Twins beat 2 of them, and maybe should have won all 3 games. No matter how badly you may want to berate the lineup the Indians put out there...at worst...it was a collection of ML and AAAA hitters. Forget matching a record and trying to make excuses for said record. How often do you see a AAA game where there are so many SO? How often do you see a ML SP on milb rehab dominate and SO so many batters?

     

    There is no telling, at this point, how good or average the starting rotation could be. But to be dismissive of the Twins pitchers actually outperforming the Indians starters in the same cold March weather over a three game series is rather defeatist. Enjoy and revel and let's see what they and Johnson can accomplish going forward!

     

    As someone pointed out, this may be the best SP staff we have seen in Target Field. (I still would thrown Pineda out for the 5th. Lots of opportunity to control his IP).

    h2oface

    h2oface 8,909

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    I listened to Baldelli talk about the game.  And then I listened to Franconia.  There's no doubt who I'd rather play for.  Maybe the new guys know what they're doing, but listening to these egghead quant guys talk is downright nauseating.  I miss the plain speak of guys like Gardy, and Franconia and Earl Weaver.  At least they were funny.  I haven't laughed since listening to Gardy talk about "Loose Canon #1 and Loose Canon #2.  I guess winning is better than laughing.  We'll see what the new guys can do.

     

    Too each his own. Gardenhire's blather made me sick, and rarely laugh, but often made me sick and furious and yell at the screen. I would take anyone BUT Gardenhire, so maybe, just maybe, I am biased.

    Edited by h2oface
    h2oface

    h2oface 8,909

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    "Kepler struck out, and the rally went on to fall short. Presumably, Baldelli is just trying to show confidence in his core guys, but turning to a contact machine like Willians Astudillo in that spot – speedy runner on second, no outs, deepest bench the Twins will have all year – seemed like such an obvious call that it was surprising not to see it from the ostensibly analytical thinker. ....."

     

    Exactly!

    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Well, along those lines,  Having a guy on 2nd that has a perfect steal rate over the last two seasons changes odds as well.   What are his chances of stealing 3rd?   That should be compared to the odds of getting a bunt down successfully as well.  In any case, I believe the Turtle pinch hitting would have been a good move there.   

     

    This might have been the better approach. Buxton still isn't scoring from second on an infield grounder. I could easily see pinch hitting Astrudillo for Kepler there and having Buxton steal early in the count. Only real issue is the defense is obviously looking for it, so the chances of a pitch out are high. 

    Dantes929

    Dantes929 4,640

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    This might have been the better approach. Buxton still isn't scoring from second on an infield grounder. I could easily see pinch hitting Astrudillo for Kepler there and having Buxton steal early in the count. Only real issue is the defense is obviously looking for it, so the chances of a pitch out are high. 

    Yep, that's the risk.    You go back to percentages.    Left handed pitcher and right handed batter helps so what are the odds of success of Buxton stealing vs being able to move him over with a sacrifice bunt because those are far from a sure thing also.   Every move had a possibility of success or failure and I am sure we don't have this discussion if Kepler had drilled a two run homer (though the rare posts I respect the most would have still  questioned it) but I am sure I am also not the only one that went "huh" when he left Kepler in swinging away.

    Channing1964

    Channing1964 578

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    It should be noted that Buxton was the tying run. Not the winning run.

    if we tie that game i bet the fangraphs win probability went up to like 89.92%. Their closer was already on the mound and we were at home. I would have gone all out for a tie, and I would have bet my farm we were gonna win. I hope we don't have to play a 163rd game because of this.
    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    if we tie that game i bet the fangraphs win probability went up to like 89.92%. Their closer was already on the mound and we were at home. I would have gone all out for a tie, and I would have bet my farm we were gonna win. I hope we don't have to play a 163rd game because of this.

    I think Fangraphs needs to rethink their win probability if that's true. I could see it being over 50%, but it shouldn't be that high. 



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