Twins Should Extend Tyler Mahle

On August 2, 2022, the Minnesota Twins traded Spencer Steer (7th-ranked prospect), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (23rd-ranked prospect), and Steve Hajjar (18th-ranked prospect) to the Cincinnati Reds for starting pitcher Tyler Mahle. At the time, fans and analysts almost unanimously viewed the trade as a win for the Twins. Ten months later, the trade is considered one of the worst in Twins history. 

Steer has become an everyday utility player for the Reds, hitting .286/.365/.482 (.861) and a wRC+ of 124. Steer also sports an fWAR of 0.8 which is higher than every Twins position player not named Ryan Jeffers (1.0 fWAR), Michael A. Taylor (1.0 fWAR), Byron Buxton (0.9 fWAR), Willi Castro (0.8 fWAR), or Alex Kirilloff (0.8 fWAR). 

As he did in the Twins system last year, Encarnacion-Strand has skyrocketed through the Cincinnati Reds minor league system and is hitting .353/.413/.706 (1.11) with a wRC+ of 172 with the Triple-A Louisville Bats, and Hajjar has since been traded to the Cleveland Guardians as part of the Will Benson trade between the Reds and Guardians on March 25. Meanwhile, Mahle started nine games and pitched 42.0 innings before the Twins announced that Mahle would need to undergo Tommy John surgery on May 11. 

The Twins lost this trade. There is no more room for interpretation. Steer has been incredible, Encarnacion-Strand looks like he will be incredible, and Twins fans will inevitably be upset when Hajjar throws seven scoreless innings against the Twins while pitching for the Guardians in 2026. 

Although the Twins gave away three talented prospects that fans will have to watch perform well for other teams for what could be the next decade, those who follow the Twins shouldn't be too upset with the organization as the process the front office took in trading for Mahle was sound and the right move at the time, as the Twins were in first place and contending for a division title, it just happened not to work out. That said, the Twins should not be done with Mahle just yet. Instead, they should extend him to a multiyear contract. 

It may seem like I am falling victim to the sunk-cost fallacy, but Mahle is an above-average pitcher that the Twins should look to sign while his perceived value is relatively low. Through nine games with the Twins, Mahle has achieved a 3.64 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 4.73 FIP while giving up nine walks, 35 hits, and 40 strikeouts. When looking at Mahle's performance as a Twin, the number that catches one's eye is his elite WHIP of just 1.05. Mahle is elite when it comes to limiting baserunners, which is a skill that every franchise values highly. 

Mahle throws an above-average slider and splitter to confuse both left and right-handed batters, but what makes Mahle truly special is his elite fastball. Mahle, who stands at six-foot-three, pointedly bends his knee at the end of his wind-up, creating a rising effect on his fastball, similar to fellow Twins pitcher Joe Ryan and Cleveland Guardians pitcher Triston McKenzie. 

Mahle's ability to generate what is essentially a "rising fastball," which is an optical illusion in itself, is evidenced by Mahle's 80th-percentile extension rate and 76th-percentile Fastball Spin rate. Mahle's elite fastball, which sits around 93-94 MPH, led to him generating a K% of 27.5% and a BB% of just 4.9%, both elite numbers on each end of the spectrum. 

Mahle, like any pitcher, is not perfect. Mahle is a fly-ball pitcher, and although this archetype tends to work well while pitching most of one’s games at Target Field, it does mean that Mahle is prone to giving up home runs, especially on the road, which was evidenced during his start against the Yankees on April 15, when he gave up two home runs through only 4.1 innings pitched. Although Mahle occasionally struggles with home runs, he is an above-average pitcher who, if given more opportunities while healthy, would greatly benefit from throwing most of his starts at Target Field, where Ballpark Pal currently ranks as the tenth hardest ballpark to hit home runs.

What would Mahle's contract extension look like?
Although signing a pitcher who recently underwent Tommy John surgery feels like something that would be complicated to work through, this iteration of the Twins front office has done this more than once. In December 2017, the Twins signed Michael Pineda, who had undergone Tommy John surgery in July of that year, to a two-year, $10 million contract that paid him $2 million while he recovered during the 2018 season and eight million dollars during what was expected to be Pineda's first full year back from surgery. Also, the Twins recently signed Chris Paddack, who underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2022, to a three-year, $12 million contract on January 14, 2023. 

Using Pineda and Paddack's contract as reference points, it would be fair to assume that Mahle's hypothetical contract would be in a similar ballpark. Mahle is a better pitcher than Pineda and Paddack were when they signed their respective contracts, so it is fair to assume that Mahle would require more of an investment if the Twins wanted to extend him. 

To predict, Mahle would likely request a contract somewhere in the two-year $20 million range that would pay him five million dollars to recover with the Twins in 2024 and then $15 million to pitch in what would hopefully be his first completely healthy season since his surgery in 2025.

Evidently, the Twins find value in signing or extending high-variance starting pitchers whose value is low since they recently underwent Tommy John surgery. Many fans will label this as the Twins shopping in the "bargain section" for pitchers, but, on the flip side, this process could be seen as a savvy process in accruing low-cost pitching talent, especially when it comes to an above-average pitcher like Mahle.

Should the Twins extend Mahle? What do you think Mahle's contract would look like?