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    Twins 5, A's 4: Joey Gallo Plays Hero in Sloppy Twins Victory


    Matt Braun

    Yes, it is possible for a win to feel gross. 

    Image courtesy of © Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    Kenta Maeda: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
    Home Runs: Joey Gallo (16)
    Top 3 WPA: Donovan Solano (.362), Joey Gallo (.331), Jovani Moran (.142)
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

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    Fresh out of the All-Star break, the Twins were handed a gift from the baseball gods: the Oakland A’s. Despite over 90 games already played, Minnesota had yet to establish a consistent, positive offense identity; the team recently leaned on the all-important semi-religious “players-only meeting,” to save their season, but the results hadn’t improved—outside a date with the lowly Royals. Would an entangle with the worst team the west coast could scrap up prove similar?

    Twins bats exploded with a mighty crash. Ken Waldichuk thought he had more time, more opportunities to toss his weaker stuff. Still, Minnesota offered no quarter, attacking quickly with a double from Carlos Correa and a single from Donovan Solano. Byron Buxton flew out deep enough to plate Correa. With a critical potential run on second base, Kyle Farmer crushed a changeup nearly as far as a batter can hit a ball without earning a free jog around the bases; instead, he earned a triple for his efforts. The game was underway.

    Unfortunately, Kenta Maeda was not sharp. He fired off a ton of pitches—entirely too many of them—to fend off Oakland in the 1st, and his frame proved prophetic: he would not last beyond three innings. He labored again in the 2nd, handing back a portion of the lead his offense earned. With another rally in the 3rd, Minnesota’s advantage was now a deficit—and Maeda’s day was over.

    These are the A’s we’re talking about—intentionally bad; served as a self-evident excuse to bolt cities—so the game was far from decided. A few walks inspired Rocco Baldelli to pinch-hit early, sending the rookie Edouard Julien to the plate with a pair of runners on the bases. He delivered. Julien smashed a double to left field, tying the game at three as the teams settled into their equal struggle for victory.

    And so the game entered its bullpen stage. This was not a smooth affair; batters often reached base, threatening to change the balance of power only to remain stagnant, forced to watch their teammates come up short. Twice the Twins loaded the bases. Both times they failed to net that critical damage-inducing knock. 

    Twins hitting coach David Popkins was tossed in the 7th—the strike zone was nebulous all day—following a called third strike to Joey Gallo. Ironically, the call in question was correct; it was one of Nic Lentz’s best calls all night. 

    So was the lone spark between the 4th and 9th. Both teams displayed a hideous understanding of hitting, working poor at-bats in crucial situations, leading to a slow and muddy affair—one dragging on far beyond any reasonable person’s tolerance for mediocre baseball.

    Until the sudden jolt. Gallo stepped up against Shintaro Fujinami, with Solano standing on 2nd. He received a fastball—Fujinami’s special—and turned it around with vigor, smoking a two-run shot into Oakland’s right field seats to give Minnesota the lead. 

    The game was not done being mischievously annoying, though, as Jhoan Duran wobbled in the 9th, enough to sow real doubt regarding the potential win. He allowed a double and a single, bringing Brent Rooker to the plate as the go-ahead run. Duran plunked him with a curveball. Seth Brown now stood in the batter’s box, but he could not muster any magic, and his groundout to Julien mercifully ended a brutal 5-4 win for the Twins. 

    Notes:

    Joey Gallo is now three homers away from tying his total from 2022; he has 234 plate appearances this year and earned 410 last year.

    Griffin Jax has not allowed an earned run since May 19th. 

    Donovan Solano has reached base at least three times in three of his last six games. 

    Post-Game Interview:

     

     

    What’s Next?

    The Twins and A’s play the second game of their weekend series on Saturday. Pablo López returns from his first All-Star game to pitch against Hobie Harris; first pitch is at 6:07 PM.

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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    2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    So Miranda got hurt over the all star break? Only the Twins can get injured when all of baseball (except the best of the best) are on a break.

    I made the assumption that he was working hard over the break both on throwing and hitting. The work on the off days can have more strain than a game.

    2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

    Of course home runs are a small sample.  I was trying to be nice, but the data didn't even support me on that when I split them out.  Would you prefer to discuss the larger sample size of strikeouts instead?

    Sure, but the fact remains that Gallo is a better hitter, context neutral or sensitive, than most of the guys they employ. Unlike the other dude's who strikeout over a 30% clip on this team Gallo has elite power which is why he has the offensive production he does (only Julien has a higher slugging percentage).

    59 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

    That's true but other also play well against good teams.  The Twins are 9 wins under a 50/50 record against all other teams.  Not really playoff material to my mind.

    We lost 2 games in 10 innings v. Orioles & won 2 of 6 - played Boston well - played Yankees well (w/Judge) - played Angels well - played Dodgers well - played Houston well. Some tough losses mixed into these series.

    Played a couple good games v. both Tampa Bay & Atlanta but lost all 6 (6 of your 9 v. baseball’s best 2 teams) these offset our KC success. We’re a game under .500 in 7 games v. Tigers & a game under .500 in 7 with Guardians.

    A bunch of good teams in our rear view mirror!

    If we stay above .500 in division, the balance of our schedule should allow us to level up our record v. non division teams.

    9 minutes ago, Shobae said:

    Sure, but the fact remains that Gallo is a better hitter, context neutral or sensitive, than most of the guys they employ. Unlike the other dude's who strikeout over a 30% clip on this team Gallo has elite power which is why he has the offensive production he does (only Julien has a higher slugging percentage).

    Usually context-neutral tells you what you need to know, but if by "situational wins" you mean the WPA/LI column in b-r.com then look at the next column over, Clutch.  Gallo ranks among the bottom of the team.  This matches the "eye test" that a lot of us here have been seeing with him.  I don't remember ever finding as much discrepancy between OPS and its relative stat WAR (WAA actually), versus the situational WPA.  WPA has its flaws but usually it tracks with WAA.  Gallo has for the most part come up small when the situation is big.  That's been a trend in his career stats, which I never looked at until now that he's on the Twins, but it's even more pronounced this season.  I dislike questioning clutch ability in most cases and I don't think he lacks heart, but pitchers seem to be able to manipulate his production and the numbers in Gallo's case just aren't good.

    6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

    Usually context-neutral tells you what you need to know, but if by "situational wins" you mean the WPA/LI column in b-r.com then look at the next column over, Clutch.  Gallo ranks among the bottom of the team.  This matches the "eye test" that a lot of us here have been seeing with him.  I don't remember ever finding as much discrepancy between OPS and its relative stat WAR (WAA actually), versus the situational WPA.  WPA has its flaws but usually it tracks with WAA.  Gallo has for the most part come up small when the situation is big.  That's been a trend in his career stats, which I never looked at until now that he's on the Twins, but it's even more pronounced this season.  I dislike questioning clutch ability in most cases and I don't think he lacks heart, but pitchers seem to be able to manipulate his production and the numbers in Gallo's case just aren't good.

    Yeah situation wins in WPA/LI and you're right that his clutch score (WPA added in high leverage compared to WPA added in lower leverage iirc) is pretty bad. Also if you just use straight up WPA it's negative but if you actually adjust it for something he can't control, what leverage index he comes up to bat with, you see he's been adding WPA relative to the situations he's been in. So even if he sucks in high leverage his value in other contexts is enough to make up for that. He's certainly better than Jeffers on all counts except clutch (jeffers isn't god awful but still bad) but since Jeffers "only" strikes out 29.3% of the time and his a better context neutral hitter he gets a pass from most fans. Just isn't consistent thinking.

    2 hours ago, Shobae said:

    Sure, but the fact remains that Gallo is a better hitter, context neutral or sensitive, than most of the guys they employ. Unlike the other dude's who strikeout over a 30% clip on this team Gallo has elite power which is why he has the offensive production he does (only Julien has a higher slugging percentage).

    Gallo is a hitter for which OPS is incredibly misleading. 

    He fails to put the ball in play so often he more than cancels out the few HRs he hits.

    He has 16 HRs...and 30 RBI.

    Thirty. 

    3 sac flies IN HIS CAREER.

    SLG is only valuable in that it contributes to scoring runs. When you don't drive in runs, theoretical mumbo jumbo is just that...mumbo jumbo. It doesn't demonstrate some greater understanding of baseball. In fact, just the opposite. 

    Gallo is not a good offensive player. He's awful. Much worse than a cursory glance at OPS indicates. 

    His 16 HRs do not represent a positive for this offense.

    Teams try to win games in order to draw fans.  Obviously, not everyone wins enough, so the teams need to provide other means of entertainment.  This may range from a decent baseball team, to a nice stadium, variety of concessions, mascots to entertain the kids and t-shirts shot from a hand cannon.

    So, Gallo fills a portion of that secondary entertainment.  People love homers and want to cheer for the guy who hits the 400 foot blast.  Gallo fills that role, although not often enough for most of us.  The average fan (kid or adult) doesn't really get that involved in the myriad of stats measuring Gallo's effectiveness.  They just want to see Gallo take a mighty swing and send the ball into the stands.

    2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

    I made the assumption that he was working hard over the break both on throwing and hitting. The work on the off days can have more strain than a game.

    According to Rocco. This is the same issue as he had in ST and never has gotten completely healed. If that's the case why would he not be resting it? 

     

    9 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

    According to Rocco. This is the same issue as he had in ST and never has gotten completely healed. If that's the case why would he not be resting it? 

     

    Because he wants to play?  Because he sees his role being taken.   It's so easy for us from the sidelines to just toss guys on the IL.  A young competitive player downplaying an injury to stay in the lineup....... not the first nor last time you will hear of it. 




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