Twins 2027 Arbitration Decisions: Who Stays, Who Goes?

JD-TWINS · October 4

22 hours ago, SE23 said:

Not only does he compulsively swing at the low outside slider. he tries to PULL it. He's 27 years old. Coaching is not his problem.

Not sure if you’re describing Royce Lewis - Byron Buxton (certainly at 27!) - Teoscar Hernandez - etc …….. hitting is hard & essentially all of them have holes…….. he hit .241 after June 10 in sum with .217 for July & .207 for September…….he was hitting around .165 before being sent down. So 3.5 pretty terrible months ……… .227 for the year (12 points lower than K. Clemens).

Lewis had POOR strikeout ratio - your point is well made about his lack of ability to handle nearly ANY pitch away.

He was sent down after being a 1 : 1 draft pick - he played some 2B & essentially moved to 3B on the fly during 2026. His “talent” allowed him to hit 15HR & steal 16 bases. IMO, with some more discipline at the plate via instruction - reps on pitches down & away - more experience………he’s a 25HR - 20SB guy in ‘27. He needs to strike out less and bump his OBP 25 points but these are not BIG shifts.

Major League Ready · October 4

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Did he have another injury? The initial timeline on his surgery recovery was he would be ready for spring training.

Rotowire says Spring Training.

Twinsrtheworst · October 4

On 10/3/2026 at 10:28 AM, killercarewoliva said:

no offense man to you but I've never forgotten this and it was 40 years ago in Baltimore. My son had a Hrbek t-shirt on with his number. Trevor being 4 years old at the time so at that age you're giving them a little rope walking around but be very watchful and he walked up to Hrbek. he looked at my son. oh no! not here he said. you know that's okay if that's what you want as a player but in comparison Greg Gagne took the baseball. signed it and under his name he puts John 3:16. Nice nice guy. I pulled my son away and he would from a slight distance. staring me down more than once. that's the only player in my following the Minnesota twins history I ever had a problem with which has been going on now for 61 years.

Not sure how this relates to the article, but hey good for you holding onto a grudge for 61 years. Over a guy who will never know who you are. Sounds reasonable. Regarding the players not from 61 years ago....keep Royce.

SaintPaulRocks · October 4

I would non tender Ober, Larnach, and Lewis. I would also try to trade them before the tender deadline which I believe is November 20th. Cleveland was able to trade Cal Quantrill in 2023 before the tender deadline.

SaintPaulRocks · October 4

Ryan, Bradley, Kramer, Clemens, Banda, Nance, and Sands I would tender and keep. Sands would start the year in AAA. Rest on the opening day roster.

killercarewoliva · October 4

1 hour ago, Twinsrtheworst said:

Not sure how this relates to the article, but hey good for you holding onto a grudge for 61 years. Over a guy who will never know who you are. Sounds reasonable. Regarding the players not from 61 years ago....keep Royce.

he was pushing around basically a 4-year-old child apparent does not forget such things.

SE23 · October 4

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not sure if you’re describing Royce Lewis - Byron Buxton (certainly at 27!) - Teoscar Hernandez - etc …….. hitting is hard & essentially all of them have holes…….. he hit .241 after June 10 in sum with .217 for July & .207 for September…….he was hitting around .165 before being sent down. So 3.5 pretty terrible months ……… .227 for the year (12 points lower than K. Clemens).

Lewis had POOR strikeout ratio - your point is well made about his lack of ability to handle nearly ANY pitch away.

He was sent down after being a 1 : 1 draft pick - he played some 2B & essentially moved to 3B on the fly during 2026. His “talent” allowed him to hit 15HR & steal 16 bases. IMO, with some more discipline at the plate via instruction - reps on pitches down & away - more experience………he’s a 25HR - 20SB guy in ‘27. He needs to strike out less and bump his OBP 25 points but these are not BIG shifts.

If Royce could learn to punish pitchers for throwing on the outside edge by lining those pitches down the RF line on a regular basis, they would be forced to come back inside where he can turn on the ball. He might hit .275, with 25 HR and produce close to 3 WAR. I have lost faith that he will do that in a Twins uniform. I think it's in his best interest and the team's best interest if Lewis finds a fresh start somewhere else.

Fatbat · October 4

100% Ober and Lewis get tendered. Ober goes to the bullpen to get 3-4 outs every other game. Cheap outs. Lewis get tendered because he is cheap and the FO will take a bet on him finally figuring it out. It also allows them to use him as a utility guy if doesn’t grow into a productive everyday 1B. Tall order but worth the $5M bet. Kremer and Banda will also be back because they provide value. One more season for Sands is probs 50/50.

Twinsrtheworst · October 4

2 hours ago, killercarewoliva said:

he was pushing around basically a 4-year-old child apparent does not forget such things.

Still not the right forum to share unforgivness or whatever you got going on. Doesn't relate to the article in any shape or form. I don't see Big Kent in the article. Take it up with him.

DJL44 · October 4

2 hours ago, SE23 said:

If Royce could learn to punish pitchers for throwing on the outside edge by lining those pitches down the RF line on a regular basis, they would be forced to come back inside where he can turn on the ball.

I want to see him learn how to beat up on LHP. He should be able to crush lefties but he’s only okay at it.

sweetmusicviola16 · October 4

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

100% Ober and Lewis get tendered. Ober goes to the bullpen to get 3-4 outs every other game. Cheap outs. Lewis get tendered because he is cheap and the FO will take a bet on him finally figuring it out. It also allows them to use him as a utility guy if doesn’t grow into a productive everyday 1B. Tall order but worth the $5M bet. Kremer and Banda will also be back because they provide value. One more season for Sands is probs 50/50.

You know fatbat you are probably right. They might as well keep Larnach too and keep the whole gang in place.

tony&rodney · October 4

7 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

You know fatbat you are probably right. They might as well keep Larnach too and keep the whole gang in place.

Lewis, Larnach, and Ober should be traded. We have seen enough to know they need a new location and a fresh start, which may allow them to have several successful years as MLB players.

Fatbat · October 4

29 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

You know fatbat you are probably right. They might as well keep Larnach too and keep the whole gang in place.

Im not saying it’s the right thing to do. Just an observation based on previous experience. If only we could also get rid of Gray and Martin to get some decent bench depth….

Fatbat · October 4

23 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Lewis, Larnach, and Ober should be traded. We have seen enough to know they need a new location and a fresh start, which may allow them to have several successful years as MLB players.

They wouldn’t be missed much, unless they somehow become allstars!

Brandon · October 5

On 10/3/2026 at 3:21 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Tendering a contract to players with the intention of trading them isn’t a sound plan. That’s how we get stuck with $7 million Ober who continues his velocity decline, or $5 million Lewis who’s still a sub .700 OPS player.

Fully agree. Trim the fat and use the extra payroll budget for better players.

You could trade players before you have to tender them a contract. We have time to make that happen.

stringer bell · October 5

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Im not saying it’s the right thing to do. Just an observation based on previous experience. If only we could also get rid of Gray and Martin to get some decent bench depth….

Gotta believe Gray is a roster casualty as soon as rosters are unfrozen. He had his best moments as a big leaguer early in the season, but is substandard as both a hitter and fielder.

Fatbat · October 5

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Gotta believe Gray is a roster casualty as soon as rosters are unfrozen. He had his best moments as a big leaguer early in the season, but is substandard as both a hitter and fielder.

Martin is rowing that same boat.

HrbieFan · October 5

On 10/3/2026 at 9:28 AM, killercarewoliva said:

no offense man to you but I've never forgotten this and it was 40 years ago in Baltimore. My son had a Hrbek t-shirt on with his number. Trevor being 4 years old at the time so at that age you're giving them a little rope walking around but be very watchful and he walked up to Hrbek. he looked at my son. oh no! not here he said. you know that's okay if that's what you want as a player but in comparison Greg Gagne took the baseball. signed it and under his name he puts John 3:16. Nice nice guy. I pulled my son away and he would from a slight distance. staring me down more than once. that's the only player in my following the Minnesota twins history I ever had a problem with which has been going on now for 61 years.

That is too bad, definitely not the way any parent or kid wants a meeting to go. As a teenager we took a bus trip to the Dome through the American Legion. A few of us worked our way to the dugout area during warmup. He got done hitting and saw our group of 5. He went into the dugout and came back with an autographed bat, batting gloves, Twins towel, autographed hat and 5 bags of sunflower seeds. I was the biggest kid, so he gave me the bat and told me not use it as it had small crack in the wood. We were all kings for a day!

stringer bell · October 5

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Martin is rowing that same boat.

I think Martin has value, but probably not for the Twins. I think he could net an unproven relief arm (like Gomez was) or a utility guy.

Trov · October 5

I think the ones with low cost are easy tender, unless you need the 40 man spots for guys to miss out on rule 5. Without looking closer at that list it is hard to say who should get tendered or not.

High heat · October 5

2026 was a year of decision making on who to move on from and who to build on.

Larnach, Lewis, Ober, Sands, time to move on from.

Saving from these non tenders would pay Jeffers qualifying offer if accepted.

Clemens, Nance, Kremer are pieces for 2027 and of course Ryan and Bradley.

what is Bandas healthy status? If he is ready to go for opening day he should be tendered or atleast approached for a 1 yr deal.

A name not on this list though is Alex Jackson. He might be tendered as the back up catcher likely to make under 2 million. Or if they can do the same with his as last season.

weitz41 · October 5

I guess I'd lean towards tendering all. I saw some responses about Banda injury with spring training return others with mid-season. If ST then I'd tender him. Most, if not all, of the projected salaries leave some value there. Not a ton though. Then I start shopping them.

If the FO is going to invest in upgrades many of these players need to go to make room. Maybe a package of some of them get an upgrade at 1B, 2B, BP or catcher.

The Reds are going to be looking for 2B/3B upgrade. Hey Lewis is available. The Cubs have almost no starters returning and only 1 OF returning...Are Ober and/or Ryan and Larnach available? Sure, what did you have in mind? Astro's call. about that Larnach trade we almost did...

Only ones I'd be unwilling to move are Bradley, one of Kremer/Ober. Clemens, on the fence on Nance and depending on injury status Banda.

Mike Sixel · October 5

5 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

I guess I'd lean towards tendering all. I saw some responses about Banda injury with spring training return others with mid-season. If ST then I'd tender him. Most, if not all, of the projected salaries leave some value there. Not a ton though. Then I start shopping them.

If the FO is going to invest in upgrades many of these players need to go to make room. Maybe a package of some of them get an upgrade at 1B, 2B, BP or catcher.

The Reds are going to be looking for 2B/3B upgrade. Hey Lewis is available. The Cubs have almost no starters returning and only 1 OF returning...Are Ober and/or Ryan and Larnach available? Sure, what did you have in mind? Astro's call. about that Larnach trade we almost did...

Only ones I'd be unwilling to move are Bradley, one of Kremer/Ober. Clemens, on the fence on Nance and depending on injury status Banda.

So, bring back the same team?

DJL44 · October 5

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, bring back the same team?

It’s not like they can bring back the New York Yankees team instead

weitz41 · October 5

oops

weitz41 · October 5

23 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, bring back the same team?

Tendering in November/December. Playing for the Twins in 2027 are two completely different things. I can't think of a good reason to cut them. When I could trade them for a guy in DSL and possibly end up with Fernado Tatis. I know .001% chance, but that's still better then .000.

The Great Hambino · October 5

3 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Tendering in November/December. Playing for the Twins in 2027 are two completely different things. I can't think of a good reason to cut them. When I could trade them for a guy in DSL and possibly end up with Fernado Tatis. I know .001% chance, but that's still better then .000.

There's also a better than .000 chance that you aren't able to find a trade partner for them, leaving you on the hook for their salary. For each player that gets tendered, they have to ask themselves if they'd be willing to eat the cost to cut them or carry them throughout the year if it came down to it.

For guys like Nance on the lower end of the spectrum, that's an easy answer. There's little to no pain in cutting him if you have to, so there's no reason not to tender them unless you have a 40 man crunch and they're the next ones to go to create room. But for someone on the higher end, like Ober, you have to give some consideration to whether you're willing to be on the hook for his number. No one's going to give up anything for him if he's not wanted at that number. I dunno, maybe you can create a trade market if you're willing to eat some salary. But there can be a downside to tendering players that needs to at least be considered

weitz41 · October 5

14 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

There's also a better than .000 chance that you aren't able to find a trade partner for them, leaving you on the hook for their salary. For each player that gets tendered, they have to ask themselves if they'd be willing to eat the cost to cut them or carry them throughout the year if it came down to it.

For guys like Nance on the lower end of the spectrum, that's an easy answer. There's little to no pain in cutting him if you have to, so there's no reason not to tender them unless you have a 40 man crunch and they're the next ones to go to create room. But for someone on the higher end, like Ober, you have to give some consideration to whether you're willing to be on the hook for his number. No one's going to give up anything for him if he's not wanted at that number. I dunno, maybe you can create a trade market if you're willing to eat some salary. But there can be a downside to tendering players that needs to at least be considered

I get what you're saying. Sure, there's a real chance you have a roster spot of two filled you weren't expecting. I don't see a 40-man crunch and August trade deadline can clean out the guys you don't move.

WAR to me isn't the end all be all but it's a decent starting point when looking at your teams' roster.

Just using Baseball reference as a neutral guide. Let say for Ober. in 2026 he managed 1.8 WAR over 130+ innings. 1.8 x 8 Mil/WAR. That's 14.4 Mil in value for 6.9 Mil projected (2027) salary. That doesn't seem like something most teams not called the Dodger or Yankees would pass on to quickly. 2026 Larnach 1.4 WAR, Lewis .9 WAR, Nance .7. Just pointing out there's value there you don't want to just discard to open a roster spot is all.

Major League Ready · October 5

54 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

I get what you're saying. Sure, there's a real chance you have a roster spot of two filled you weren't expecting. I don't see a 40-man crunch and August trade deadline can clean out the guys you don't move.

WAR to me isn't the end all be all but it's a decent starting point when looking at your teams' roster.

Just using Baseball reference as a neutral guide. Let say for Ober. in 2026 he managed 1.8 WAR over 130+ innings. 1.8 x 8 Mil/WAR. That's 14.4 Mil in value for 6.9 Mil projected (2027) salary. That doesn't seem like something most teams not called the Dodger or Yankees would pass on to quickly. 2026 Larnach 1.4 WAR, Lewis .9 WAR, Nance .7. Just pointing out there's value there you don't want to just discard to open a roster spot is all.

The average cost paid per WAR is not the same as value. Nobody is paying Bailey Ober $14.4M. Just as nobody would pay $24M/year for Brooks Lee. A lot of free agents drastically underperform which makes the average WAR per dollar spent much lower than expected.

Mike Sixel · October 5

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

I get what you're saying. Sure, there's a real chance you have a roster spot of two filled you weren't expecting. I don't see a 40-man crunch and August trade deadline can clean out the guys you don't move.

WAR to me isn't the end all be all but it's a decent starting point when looking at your teams' roster.

Just using Baseball reference as a neutral guide. Let say for Ober. in 2026 he managed 1.8 WAR over 130+ innings. 1.8 x 8 Mil/WAR. That's 14.4 Mil in value for 6.9 Mil projected (2027) salary. That doesn't seem like something most teams not called the Dodger or Yankees would pass on to quickly. 2026 Larnach 1.4 WAR, Lewis .9 WAR, Nance .7. Just pointing out there's value there you don't want to just discard to open a roster spot is all.

Way too risky to tender guys you haven't got a trade for, or don't want on the roster. IMO, of course. I really don't want the same team back, but if they sign a guy for millions, they aren't going to just DFA him later if no one will trade for him.

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