Trevor May Headed To The Bullpen

 

Evidence? Lots of solid relievers (Lowe, Benoit, etc.) changed teams this winter for little more than our overall commitment to Jepsen.

This is one of those myths that sounds nice in theory, like the catching market being so barren as to necessitate the early Suzuki extension, but it absolutely fails when you actually look at the whole market and not just at the top couple names (who the Twins likely weren't competing for regardless).

The Twins fell in love early with the idea of May in the bullpen, just like they became overly enamored with Suzuki as their starting catcher. And then they proceeded to do nothing over a full winter to improve in those areas, or add flexibility to those plans. It's really that simple.

 

Of the six guys still in the hunt, only Duffey is younger than May.

 

And I was not suggesting that we never sign anyone over 27.  It would be very difficult to field a team from ages 22-27 and make a run at a world series.  But in the context of building a team and needing to supplement the team in free agency to add talent and fill holes, I think we are going about this the wrong way.

 

Studies have suggested that 1 WAR is roughly $7M in free agency.  When they hit FA, Nolasco averaged about 1.2 WAR per season.  Ervin has averaged 1.7 WAR per year.  So their contract values are in line with this estimate, they were paid slightly more than $7M.   But you have a guy like May making $400k that had over 1 WAR in June last year.   That is the guy I am giving 200 innings to.

The best thing that can happen for the Twins right now is they conclude in about two months that Duffey with his two pitches and May with his four should be switched.  May has the build and the stuff to be a better starter and I think Duffey would make a very solid reliever.

How do you know he didn't try? I think he did, but those he wanted he just couldn't sign. I know, I know, I'm naive.

This day and age, teams are usually tied via at least a rumor to who they are going after. It was the case with Ervin, Nolasco, Pelfrey, etc.

 

The best rumor we had was that we would be interested in a top reliever for 1 and 3-4 million and he signed for 2-12.

 

Was May the Twins' best starter last season? Possibly. Does fWAR tell us he was the best? Eh, of that I'm not so sure. fWAR for pitchers has some oddities that bother me. After all, it's convinced Nolasco was above replacement level in both 2014 and 2015.

 

I pulled the numbers from last year for the top 6 guys (excluding Nolasco) for just their time as a starting pitcher.  What frustrates me outside of the fWAR discussion is that May was second on the team in K/9, BB/9, and FIP.  He was last in ERA.  The Twins putting him in the bullpen is another indication that they don't value the newer statistical analysis and are valuing Milone's ERA (3.92 vs 4.43) as opposed to May's FIP (3.35 vs 4.30).

 

.500 (at best) finish here we come.  A rotation full of average starters gets you an average (at best) finish.  Mediocrity rules.

 

I don't know we can draw that conclusion......I think we have no idea WHY they did this.

 

I partially agree.  We know they don't value the newer analysis enough to make their decision based on it but I agree with you that we don't know the reasoning they are taking.  Could be ERA like I suggested but it could also be wanting a lefty, gut feel, scouting, money, personality, ect....

 

I don't mind the May move at all given the composition of the Twins staff and who their prospects are. IMHO, May would be a solid starter, but he could be better than that in the bullpen. I haven't seen enough either in the rotation or the 'pen to be absolutely sure.

 

There is a recurring theme that the Twins should have enhanced their bullpen so that May could claim his rightful place (emphasis mine) in the rotation. I, for one, wanted the club to add a good reliever, probably at the expense of Casey Fien. It sounded like the Twins were willing to do so until the contracts for solid relievers got longer and more expensive than they were willing to go. With quite a few prospects ready to contribute by next year, if not sooner, the Twins passed on the likes of Tony Sipp, Anthony Bastardo and a bunch of RH relievers. I'm not sure I agree with their rationale, but it is defensible.

 

The rotation is overpopulated with mid-rotation guys with little upside. However, they have seven guys competing for five spots and IMHO they all belong in the majors. It looks to me like Milone is head and shoulders ahead of both Nolasco and Duffey. I also believe that is the proper decision. I hope Duffey fills out the rotation and Nolasco is assigned to long relief, but Nolasco's resumé tells me that he might have value as a starter although we haven't seen much of it at all since he came to Minnesota.

Bingo!

 

Evidence? Lots of solid relievers (Lowe, Benoit, etc.) changed teams this winter for little more than our overall commitment to Jepsen.

This is one of those myths that sounds nice in theory, like the catching market being so barren as to necessitate the early Suzuki extension, but it absolutely fails when you actually look at the whole market and not just at the top couple names (who the Twins likely weren't competing for regardless).

The Twins fell in love early with the idea of May in the bullpen, just like they became overly enamored with Suzuki as their starting catcher. And then they proceeded to do nothing over a full winter to improve in those areas, or add flexibility to those plans. It's really that simple.

What's simple is, the strongest part of our farm team is power arms in the pen. That we didn't add flexibility to those plans is nonsense.

 

I pulled the numbers from last year for the top 6 guys (excluding Nolasco) for just their time as a starting pitcher.  What frustrates me outside of the fWAR discussion is that May was second on the team in K/9, BB/9, and FIP.  He was last in ERA.  The Twins putting him in the bullpen is another indication that they don't value the newer statistical analysis and are valuing Milone's ERA (3.92 vs 4.43) as opposed to May's FIP (3.35 vs 4.30).

 

pitcher-comp.jpg

 

Once every decade or so, like some sort of celestial portent of statistical doom, the ERA deception comet passes through the Twins solar system, each time named for a different Twins pitcher.

 

In the early 90's it was 1988 ERA champ/lottery winner Allan Anderson.   In the last decade Jolted Joe Mays hurtled past us on his way to oblivion.    Most recently, Comet Blackburn filled the skies with the terror of moon shots and misplaced faith in ERA.

 

This is both a wildly unfair exaggeration and a needless, gratuitous pop culture reference, but I love both, so here goes:

 

 

http://screencrush.com/442/files/2013/05/City-Slickers.jpg

 

Terry Ryan:   "So you're saying Milone isn't a lock for your rotation because... why?"

 

Paul Molitor:   "His peripherals look a little like a guy getting by on good luck and mediocre stuff."

 

Ryan:  "But look at that 2015 ERA!    He's gonna be solid."

 

Molitor:   "ERA just has too many variables unaccounted for, like defense and BABIP."

 

Ryan:   "Defense and who?    The new Dominican kid we signed?"

 

Jack Goin:   "FORGET IT!    He's NEVER going to get it!    The cows understand the limits of ERA as a stat by now!"

 

Rob Antony:   "Whatever.    How many RBI do you think Sano will have this year?"

 

Goin:   "You're dead!"

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 18, 2016 by LaBombo

 

O'Day is the same age as Ervin Santana, and is guaranteed less going forward. Same age as Nolasco too, and he barely eclipses Nolasco's total remaining cash (and of course both Nolasco and Santana still have much higher AAVs). "Try again."

Molasco was 31 when he signed a4 year  contract, not 33  For a 6 year period Nolasco  totaled over 21 WAR, above average as a pitcher. . Trevor May with 2012 being the only year he registered as a top 100 prospect in 7 years in the minors is not, nor will be, top of rotation.  16 starts for May, Above average SIERA, xfip, and ERA where being above average is not a good thing.  Dramatically reversed as a reliever.   At a time where more value is being placed on relief pitching, the well above average relievers were getting 3/18 or better contracts.  Norris and Fister, below average starters that were young and once full of promise got one year deals.

 

Disclaimer: I don't like May in the bullpen and would prefer to see him in the rotation.

 

With that said, too many people are treating a half season of fWAR as gospel in this thread.

 

Was May the Twins' best starter last season? Possibly. Does fWAR tell us he was the best? Eh, of that I'm not so sure. fWAR for pitchers has some oddities that bother me. After all, it's convinced Nolasco was above replacement level in both 2014 and 2015.

 

Not speaking for anyone else here, but my inclusion of WAR was just to give a rough quantification of May's value beyond what his starter ERA hints at, and to have a convenient way to compare that value to both the other Twins starters and a hypothetical full season of May as a reliever.

 

By no means do I think that WAR or any other stats, either individually or in the aggregate, provide overwhelming evidence that May would be a safe bet to pitch at a #2/3 level in the rotation.  Novelty purposes only, your mileage may vary, not for use a personal flotation device, etc.

 

That being said,  in May's case WAR seems to be a useful shorthand summary of how much more valuable he was as a starter than his ERA suggests.

 

And with respect to Nolasco, WAR isn't going to convince anybody except his agent that he's been a misunderstood genius on the mound in his time with the Twins.   But along with xFIP and other non-ERA stats, Rickie's WAR is a useful cautionary tale about how much a questionable contract, some bad PR, and a general sense of overwhelming disappointment can influence the perception of what a pitcher is actually doing on the mound.  He's pitched poorly, but there's reason for hope, however faint.

 

 16 starts for May, Above average SIERA, xfip, and ERA where being above average is not a good thing.

 

So... are you under the impression that the Twins are currently chock full o' starters who were the good kind of above average in those categories last year?

 

Kyle Gibson, the only 2016 rotation candidate who even qualified for a full season last year, also had a worse than average xFIP, one which was a whopping hundredth of a point better than May's starter ERA.

 

Combine that with the fact that May had much better starter K and BB rates, along with the distinct possibility that May wouldn't have a BABIP as a starter in 2016 that would be 50 points above average like it was in 2015, and it's hard to see how May in this year's rotation should be regarded as unlikely to match or exceed the 2016 output of any of the current crop.

Edited March 18, 2016 by LaBombo

 

By "bullish belief" that May is a good starter, do you mean the belief that's built on his very strong 5+ year minor league track record compiled ENTIRELY as a starter, as well as a half season last year as one of the Twins' two best starting pitchers?

 

Would that be as opposed to the 'settled science' of May's certain future as a brilliant late inning reliever that's based almost entirely on thirty one relief innings last year, fewer than half of which were in high-leverage situations?

 

 

As for the belief that May is a "better starter than reliever", you may have meant to address an entirely different argument, one that people were actually making, which is that May is more valuable as a starter than as a reliever.

 

Given that...

 

a) in his half season as a starter last year May pitched at a level that was on pace to be more valuable by over a full run above replacement than Aroldis Chapman v.2015 when projected over a full season,

 

b} although he was excellent in relief, May was not Aroldis Effing Chapman,

 

c) the Twins organization has wandered in the starting pitching wilderness so long that last year it practically wet its collective pants in both joy and relief at the emergence of Kyle Gibson as a 2.5 WAR, #3-ish starter even as May pitched himself toward a 3.5+ WAR season as a starter,

 

and d) outside of Gibson, not one of the candidates for the 2016 Twins rotation was as valuable all of last season as May was for half of it as a starter,

 

.... then maybe the argument that May is more valuable as a starter isn't quite as ungettable as you're making it out to be.

Yes, this exact bullish belief.  Go ahead and look at May's season through whatever tinted glass you want.  I merely point out that the results are decidedly mixed, and the numbers you love and base your "settled science" upon were likely too good to be true, and I'm the bad guy.  

Starters, in general, are more valuable than relievers. They pitch way more innings.  But this premise is flawed because it assumes relief pitchers and starters would be equally effective in either role.  I would argue that 3.00 xFIP May out of the pen could be more valuable than 4.00 xFIP May the starter, and that's without factoring in a likely regression this year.  If you think May has turned some magical corner and that he can go from a guy who struggled throwing strikes to minor leaguers, to a guy with pinpoint control plus in the zone command, that's fine.  I like optimism.  But don't ignore the indicators that paint a different picture, and don't call your opinion settled science.  And don't use his history as an effective minor league starter to support the notion that he's a good major league starter without acknowledging that he has struggled with command his entire minor league career as well.

I'm going to post the link to this article one more time, because it gives a fair and balanced assessment of reasons to be hopeful that May can maintain his form from last year, as well as explaining the reasons we should be skeptical.  I know it's hard to take seriously when May credits Rick Anderson for his improved command, but it actually is a good read.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/12/10962680/trevor-may-twins-walk-rate-control-command
 

 

So... are you under the impression that the Twins are currently chock full o' starters who were the good kind of above average in those categories last year?

 

Kyle Gibson, the only 2016 rotation candidate who even qualified for a full season last year, also had a worse than average xFIP, one which was a whopping hundredth of a point better than May's starter ERA.

 

Combine that with the fact that May had much better starter K and BB rates, along with the distinct possibility that May wouldn't have a BABIP as a starter in 2016 that would be 50 points above average like it was in 2015, and it's hard to see how May in this year's rotation should be regarded as unlikely to match or exceed the 2016 output of any of the current crop.

 

Without looking at the actual numbers, I have more confidence in Gibson as a ground ball pitcher, being able to beat league average in home runs as worked into the xFIP calculation than I do in May continuing to be 1/2 his career average in walk percentage.  But I hope Rick Anderson really did turn May into a strike throwing machine and that Gibson really can limit homeruns and outperform his xFIP.  

There is so little to be lost in roster flexibility by putting Nolasco in the long relief role and he provides modest spot starter upside.

Since it unlikely they ever eat any contract, and putting him the pen is the same as eating a contract, I role the dice one more time. Start him, hope for a glimmer and get what you can in a trade as soon as you can. He's meh in the BP, and he will be a pain. And you're going to do that for two years? No way! One thought on eating salary. Last year the team paid Hunter 10m, much of it to improve the "culture" of the clubhouse. Take $12m this year and next year, to do the same!

I am not sure if what I am stating is obvious, or obvious only to me. But there never was a real competition here, short of an injury or an inexplicable failure by a veteran pitcher to look like a pitcher in ST. May was always going to the BP. Milone was set in the rotation. He has "Twins Pitcher" written all over him, and is LH. Nolasco has NO value in the BP, and would also be a major disruption, on a team that values at least the perception of cohesion above all else. And Duffey has options, and youth at his side. Despite his best efforts those two millstones remain around his neck! He is going to spend more of the year in Rochester than he thinks.

Yes, this exact bullish belief. Go ahead and look at May's season through whatever tinted glass you want. I merely point out that the results are decidedly mixed, and the numbers you love and base your "settled science" upon were likely too good to be true, and I'm the bad guy.

 

Starters, in general, are more valuable than relievers. They pitch way more innings. But this premise is flawed because it assumes relief pitchers and starters would be equally effective in either role. I would argue that 3.00 xFIP May out of the pen could be more valuable than 4.00 xFIP May the starter, and that's without factoring in a likely regression this year. If you think May has turned some magical corner and that he can go from a guy who struggled throwing strikes to minor leaguers, to a guy with pinpoint control plus in the zone command, that's fine. I like optimism. But don't ignore the indicators that paint a different picture, and don't call your opinion settled science. And don't use his history as an effective minor league starter to support the notion that he's a good major league starter without acknowledging that he has struggled with command his entire minor league career as well.

 

I'm going to post the link to this article one more time, because it gives a fair and balanced assessment of reasons to be hopeful that May can maintain his form from last year, as well as explaining the reasons we should be skeptical. I know it's hard to take seriously when May credits Rick Anderson for his improved command, but it actually is a good read.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/12/10962680/trevor-may-twins-walk-rate-control-command

 

I don't consider things like k rates, FIP, WAR, stuff, and BB as rose tinted glasses. Those are predictable stats. In fact May

Made the exact strides you would want out of a younger starter from his first cup of coffee in 2014 to 2015

 

Most agree starters are more valuable and you do too. Earlier I posted Roger Clemens career WAR was 140 and Mariano Rivera's was 55. I am simply suggesting we give him time as a starter so we can make a conclusion

 

It very well could be that May would make a better reliever, but we simply don't know that based on one year where he did a little of both. We should also acknowledge that relievers in general have better numbers starters based on inherent advantages like split innings, shorter stints, stamina, only facing the lineup once, etc.

Edited March 19, 2016 by tobi0040

This is a much much much more reasonable position.  It doesn't state that May is certainly one of our 2 best starters or that he is not better out of the pen.  My comment about the rose tinted glasses refers to the sample size used when May was a starter, and that those stats were largely calculated with a significant outlier, his BB rate which was the main reason his numbers looked so good.  Wanting to see if he could continue to build on those numbers as a starter makes perfect sense.  Betting that his peripherals were aided by the suddenly found control and moving him to the pen where he both filled a need and opened a spot for another starter was perfectly reasonable also.

I'm fine with either direction the team wanted to take with May, I personally believe they made the right choice and made the move before his peripherals jumped up.  That's just an educated guess based on his minor league numbers which is why I'd be fine still starting him.   

This is a much much much more reasonable position. It doesn't state that May is certainly one of our 2 best starters or that he is not better out of the pen. My comment about the rose tinted glasses refers to the sample size used when May was a starter, and that those stats were largely calculated with a significant outlier, his BB rate which was the main reason his numbers looked so good. Wanting to see if he could continue to build on those numbers as a starter makes perfect sense. Betting that his peripherals were aided by the suddenly found control and moving him to the pen where he both filled a need and opened a spot for another starter was perfectly reasonable also.

 

I'm fine with either direction the team wanted to take with May, I personally believe they made the right choice and made the move before his peripherals jumped up. That's just an educated guess based on his minor league numbers which is why I'd be fine still starting him.

I think what gets people frustrated (myself included) is that it is hard to look at May and the other starters and conclude that in terms of upside and stuff, that we have five better pitchers. And we are likely to have used 2.5 years of control of a guy like that in the pen for about 100 relief innings. Edited March 19, 2016 by tobi0040

 

I think what gets people frustrated (myself included) is that it is hard to look at May and the other starters and conclude that in terms of upside and stuff, that we have five better pitchers. And we are likely to have used 2.5 years of control of a guy like that in the pen for about 100 relief innings.

And I think that's super fair.  I also think it's fair for management to weigh that risk against his potential usefulness as a reliever.  I believe it's a tough call, and, as others pointed out, what's best for the team and best for May's future/development may not completely overlap.  I can see how May would be frustrated, "work on your command" and then show the improvement and still get moved, but ultimately, the team should make decisions that are best for the team, short and long term.  I think we'll see May get another shot at starting at some point.  

 

So... are you under the impression that the Twins are currently chock full o' starters who were the good kind of above average in those categories last year?

 

Kyle Gibson, the only 2016 rotation candidate who even qualified for a full season last year, also had a worse than average xFIP, one which was a whopping hundredth of a point better than May's starter ERA.

 

Combine that with the fact that May had much better starter K and BB rates, along with the distinct possibility that May wouldn't have a BABIP as a starter in 2016 that would be 50 points above average like it was in 2015, and it's hard to see how May in this year's rotation should be regarded as unlikely to match or exceed the 2016 output of any of the current crop.

I can use the same dark rose colored glasses you wear and say that Nolasco has had a history of seasons with 4 WAR, Santana and Hughes had seasons in the 5+   That is their upside. 

 

As a starter  May had an xfip of 3.98,  The percentage of hard hit and weakly hit balls served up  by May is the upside you people ignore, He is hitable as a starter.  Fangraphs, the holy grail of some people, offers this piece of brutal news

 

The Quick Opinion: May has taken over for Casey Fien as the closer-in-waiting in Minnesota, it would seem. As a reliever, May is a fireballer who will help your rates. As a starter, he's a bit too hittable to be more than a back-end guy. Keep an eye on his status in the spring.

 

As a reliever being able to have a couple more MPH on the fastball makes him effective.  Fret not, if the higher upside of Meyer, Burdi, Chargois, Reed and Melotakis comes through, May  will start at some point late this year, early next year.

 

I think that's pretty unlikely. If May pitches well the argument becomes "he's too good to move back!" If he struggles it becomes "well if he can't hack the pen....."

Guys just don't flip back and forth much, this likely is the end of the line for one of our higher upside SPs.

 

One of higher upside SP?  

Santana: RotoWire News: "hitting 94-95 MPH on the radar gun, MLB.com reports. (3/6/2016)." ERA of 4.00 last season and 3.95 the season before.

Hughes: RotoWire News: Hughes reported to spring training 15 to 18 pounds lighter (2/23/2016).  27-19 as a Twins starter.

Gibson: peaked 34 on BBA's top 100 prospect list, 3 appearances, May made 1 list (68) as a Philly.

You can make an argument for Duffey having more upside based on his success.

I'll concede Nolasco and Millone on upside, but would not bet on May having a better season as a starter than both of them.  But then I'm going to expect you to concede upside on Tyler Jay, Berrios, and Kohl Stewart.  I'll even give you Gonsalves and Thorpe, who are a ways away, and Alex Meyer who seems unlikely to make his lofty potential.  

If he never starts again because he's too successful as a reliever, that isn't such a bad thing.  We have plenty of comparable arms, imo, especially this year.