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    Three Seasons In, I Still Have No Idea What to Make of Brooks Lee

    The switch-hitting shortstop-turned-third baseman broke out in 2026; It’s impossible to predict how he'll perform next season.

    Cody Schoenmann
    Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

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    Brooks Lee broke out in 2026. There’s no debate around that. There is, howev debate about what qualifies as a “breakout campaign,” yes, but Lee’s case is clear-cut. Over his first 712 plate appearances, Lee managed only a 71 wRC+, where 100 is average and higher is better. He was similarly dreadful in the field, netting -6 Outs Above Average (OAA) while splitting his time between second base, third base, and short. As a result, the former first-round pick was worth 0.0 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) over 189 games.

    Despite being an offensive and defensive liability in his first two seasons in the majors, Lee flashed the raw talent that led to him getting selected eighth overall in the 2022 MLB Draft and to his rapid progression through the minors, showing plus power and plate discipline. His skill set was realized in 2026, with the 25-year-old hitting .253/.300/.407 with 24 home runs and a 101 wRC+ over 631 plate appearances.
     
    The driving factor behind Lee’s offensive turnaround was the switch-hitter’s ability to produce while hitting left-handed, earning a 120 wRC+ over 424 plate appearances in 2026 (compared to a combined 69 wRC+ over 482 plate appearances the prior two seasons). He regressed from the right side of the plate (63 wRC+ in 2026, compared to a combined 77 wRC+ the prior two seasons), but that failure is less consequential because he took roughly 200 fewer plate appearances from the right-handed batter’s box—no coincidence, of course, since most pitchers are right-handed.
     
    He also significantly improved defensively, transitioning from the primary shortstop to full-time third baseman in late May. Lee went from being one of the worst shortstops in baseball to an elite third baseman, netting 6 OAA over 284 attempts. Taking everything into account, Lee generated his first positive season at the plate and in the field, netting 2.9 fWAR.
     
    Lee generated the second-most fWAR on the Twins, second only to Luke Keaschall, who earned 3.0. If we strip away all context and analyze Lee’s performance by strictly looking at the metrics, he was the Twins' second-best player. Of course, that doesn’t feel true, and it probably isn’t. Byron Buxton is better than Lee, but he was hurt for a significant portion of the season. The same goes with Ryan Jeffers. Also, Joe Ryan is a better starting pitcher than Lee is a position player. However, injuries and a late-season collapse derailed his fWAR totals, placing him below Lee.
     
    Still, Lee was almost Minnesota’s most productive player this season. Yes, the club was bad, but that doesn’t happen by accident. He had to make meaningful improvements to take such a pronounced step forward—and he did, defensively. Yet, his underlying hitting metrics suggest he was largely the same player as in 2024 and 2025, making his 20-point jump in wRC+ feel unsustainable. He had poor bat speed again. He kept chasing pitches outside the zone. He rarely walked, and he made a ton of weak contact, similar to his first two seasons in the majors. So, what changed? Why was he a dramatically better hitter in 2026 than in 2025 and 2024?
     
    Despite most of his underlying metrics remaining unimpressive, he made a monumental shift in hitting philosophy in 2026, prioritizing quality of contact over contact itself. He matured into a quality-over-quantity bat. He was able to hit strikes in the air far more often in 2026 than the prior two seasons, resulting in more doubles and home runs (49) in 2026 than 2024 and 2025 combined (40). By seasoning his raw skills with a maturing approach at the plate, Lee became the hitter Twins Territory had long yearned for him to become. Combining that with an elite defensive profile, there’s no surprise he was almost a 3-WAR player.
     
    That said, his underwhelming underlying metrics shouldn’t be ignored. If his approach reverts to his pre-2026 form, he'll regress to a sub-replacement-level bat in 2027; that is a reality we must confront. And if that happens, there's a real chance he could hit his way out of being a full-time player. Moving to third and excelling at the position raises his floor, but still, a postseason-contending team can’t play a 69 wRC+ hitter every game. Alternatively, Lee could build off his breakout 2026 campaign, playing at an All-Star-caliber level early next season, solidifying himself as a core member of the next good Twins team.
     
    Either outcome is well within reason. Yes, this level of variance is (theoretically) possible for every major-league player. We just watched Cal Raleigh regress from an MVP-caliber catcher to one of the sport’s worst hitters in one season. Yet, Lee feels like one of the most volatile position players in baseball. Again, I say "feels" because this is largely a vibes-based analysis, but his underlying metrics make these doubts reasonable. Three seasons in, I don’t know what to make of Lee. He could regress into a bench bat; continue his current slightly above-average pace; or be the AL’s starting third baseman in the 2027 All-Star Game. None of these outcomes would shock me. That's not great news for the Twins, because it means one of their most-improved players this year can't be counted on to sustain that improvement next year. But it also underscores the upside of the roster, in microcosm.
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    Let’s give Lee credit for incremental improvement though it has been a bit painful the past years having that development happen at the mlb level.  The Twins probably pencil Lee into third base next year.  He is satisfactory at that position.  The Twins need to figure out a lot of other needs that are not satisfactory.
     

    However, there are options that may not fall off much and have an higher ceiling.  Assumption that Culpepper eventually moves off short for Marek Houston.  I hear 2B for Culpepper but he had a couple seasons at 3B in college.  Ben Ross was a 20/20 guy in St Paul - once settled in MLB wonder if he could exceed Lee.  The Morrisette guy at St Paul is interesting at 2nd - wonder if he could push Culpepper towards third rather than second. Fine if Clemens plays some second, I would not make him ‘the’ second baseman.  
     

    I started this thinking Lee isn’t the Twins worry right now.  But thinking through this - they have options that would likely hold steady and possibly provide upside.  I certainly would consider trade options that might help other spots (bullpen, 2B, short term catcher), but wouldn’t give Lee away.  And if he is 3B to start next year, maybe he keeps on the incremental improvement.  

    14 minutes ago, StiltedGopher said:

     Ben Ross was a 20/20 guy in St Paul - once settled in MLB wonder if he could exceed Lee.  The Morrisette guy at St Paul is interesting at 2nd - wonder if he could push Culpepper towards third rather than second. Fine if Clemens plays some second, I would not make him ‘the’ second baseman.

    Crazy talk, Morrisette is a year older than Lee and has never played in the majors, Ross is 6 months younger has 21 plate appearances in the majors and they might push Lee off a position? You don't think if Lee was in the minors he would be putting up better numbers than either of them two. He hit more homers in the majors than either of those two did in the minors. Both of those two guys future are utility/bench guys. 🫣

    Lee was drafted as a high floor but low ceiling kind of guy. This year he appears to be getting that floor up there. Might he regress, yes, might he build on it, yes. I doubt he will ever be a star, but if can be a solid average at bat, and put up average defense, where ever he lands, that is okay. Not all high picks turn out to be stars, some never play a major league game. 

    16 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

    The underlying metrics give pause for skepticism, totally fair.  But I think this kid's makeup is one worth betting on.  I think he's going to be a good player for us and one that we can pencil in the lineup everyday at 3B for the forseeable future.

    This. There is room for skepticism.... But he's gotten better each year and he's finally at third. I expect slightly better results next year. 

    Man, the Raleigh season is one of the biggest mysteries of 2026.  On Brooks, I think we saw this year what he is.  Not an All-Star, but a guy who can play above average defense, give you a .740 OPS with 60 extra base hits and drive in 80 runs (Yes, I believe there is still value in driving in runs...it's the object of the game isn't it?  To score runs?...lol).  

    image.png.77aa14fcabd64f4f413c70c6cd6594a2.png

    His scouting report shows that he was expected to be better than a "high floor" player. I would argue that he is SLOWLY working his way towards his potential ceiling. A 65 hit tool suggests a .275-.300 hitter, which he has not yet attained. But if he continues to improve, he can reach that level. Maybe 25-30 HR satisfies the 55 Power number? So, is a .280 hitter with 27 HR and 88 RBI (who also fields his position more than dependably) a 60 Overall player.

    8 hours ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

    As for metrics, after it has happened (game, week, month, season) they are pretty useless, the numbers are the numbers, how they got to them is irrelevant. Arguing one player is better than another player based on metrics because somebody was lucky or unlucky or won't be able to repeat something is a fools errand and ridiculous. 

    Said metrics can forecast whether a player will progress or regress going forward. And it's not as if all the metrics were negative for Lee, the crux of the article was that Lee's quality of contact improved by quite a bit, resulting in more power despite a high chase rate and bat speed.

    I'd trust Lee to hold down the 3B position going forward, but due to those metrics I'm not expecting him to take a major leap in hitting next year.

    My read on Brooks Lee.

    He looks like an above-average defensive 3B.

    He makes contact a lot, especially in the zone.

    He doesn't make square or hard contact, but at least this year he seemed to be able to poke several balls over the fence. Some of this could be a little luck, because his HR/FB rate was higher than last year, but he also hit more FBs and LDs period.

    He doesn't walk much (a metronomic 5.9% of his plate appearances in each of 2024, 2025, and 2026), possibly because his weak power makes pitchers less scared to pitch him more in the zone and his high contact rates make throwing outside the zone less helpful (for example, he's pitched in the heart of the plate more than Lewis, but outside and away much less frequently).

    On the continuum between baseball smarts and athletic skill, he's much closer to the baseball smarts side than is the average player.

    His Statcast stats in 2026 were almost the same as they were in 2024 and 2025, suggesting his results this year may have been more from batted ball luck.

    Prediction for 2027: even better defense, possibly similar or a little worse offense. He may be maximizing his ability, but refinement of his line drive and fly ball skills, combined with possible improvements in strength, could yield a few more homers. If he could figure out a way to take more walks, he could also gain himself better pitches to hit.

    He came in to 2026 at only 25yo and with what amounts to almost 1 1/2 years of ML time, but not quite. He had a poor rookie debut. He was still not good in 2025, but he was definitely improved.

    Now, in his second full season, he has improved his entire offensive profile over his previous 1 1/2 season's numbers. Run, hits, DBLs, HR, RBI, AVG, OB, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ were ALL improved. Heck, he even had career highs in Trips and SB, FWIW, lol. And he looked at home at 3B, and went from a poor defender at SS to a solid if not above average defender on the hot corner.

    And I understand some underlying metrics don't paint a rosy picture. Except, reality is he's continued to get better. And who knows, maybe he's just a 1st round washout and this is as good as it gets.

    But I'm betting not. And I'm betting the 2027 version of him will be as good, and probably even a little better now that he's found a comfortable home on the INF, and has another year of experience under his belt.

    20 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

    My read on Brooks Lee.

    He looks like an above-average defensive 3B.

    He makes contact a lot, especially in the zone.

    He doesn't make square or hard contact, but at least this year he seemed to be able to poke several balls over the fence. Some of this could be a little luck, because his HR/FB rate was higher than last year, but he also hit more FBs and LDs period.

    He doesn't walk much (a metronomic 5.9% of his plate appearances in each of 2024, 2025, and 2026), possibly because his weak power makes pitchers less scared to pitch him more in the zone and his high contact rates make throwing outside the zone less helpful (for example, he's pitched in the heart of the plate more than Lewis, but outside and away much less frequently).

    On the continuum between baseball smarts and athletic skill, he's much closer to the baseball smarts side than is the average player.

    His Statcast stats in 2026 were almost the same as they were in 2024 and 2025, suggesting his results this year may have been more from batted ball luck.

    Prediction for 2027: even better defense, possibly similar or a little worse offense. He may be maximizing his ability, but refinement of his line drive and fly ball skills, combined with possible improvements in strength, could yield a few more homers. If he could figure out a way to take more walks, he could also gain himself better pitches to hit.

    If his HRs become ringing doubles, they may become singles because Lee is not fleet afoot. .280 and defense? Yeah that's ok by me.

    The premise of the article is strange to me. Brooks has been one of the most predictable players on the team. His scouting report when drafted has turned out to be quite accurate. Which was a contact hitter that won’t stick at short but should be good at third. Thats exactly what he is turning out to be. I would expect Brooks to be a fine third baseman as early as the middle of next year. His hitting has improved slightly year over year and I think with more strike zone recognition he can add some OBP to his acceptable power numbers. In short, if Brooks is your floor you have a good team; if he is your ceiling you ain’t going places. He has earned the right to be written in in pen for third next year. 

    11 hours ago, Patzky said:

    If his HRs become ringing doubles, they may become singles because Lee is not fleet afoot. .280 and defense? Yeah that's ok by me.

    Lee hit .253 this year. Sorcery would be required to increase his batting average by 30 points because homers became singles or doubles.

    In fact, the opposite would probably occur, with fewer balls leaving the park causing his batting average to go down. Using this year's .268 BABIP (career-high), if all of Lee's homers stayed in the park, 24 HRs would become 6 hits and 18 outs, and his BA would go from .253 to .222.




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