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With several star players out already, the Twins' depth is immediately being tested. Unlike in previous years (when insulating the roster was a priority), however, the payroll situation left the team exposed. Three choices they made, in particular, are coming back to haunt them now.
Letting It Ride with the Rotation
In 2023, the Twins opened the season with Bailey Ober and Louie Varland in Triple-A as depth arms. It wasn’t long until they were both needed, and each wound up carrying a substantial workload, even though the Twins had one of the healthier rotations in baseball.
This year, they did the opposite. Their only starting pitching depth was Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick in St. Paul, with Varland opening the season in the rotation. Headrick is currently on the IL, and Varland is getting hammered in MLB so far.
Several options were available for a reasonable price, but the Twins put a hard stop on spending. It’s possible Varland could iron out his issues in the minor leagues, but regardless of performance, he will get a lot more run in the MLB rotation. Through 14 innings, he has a 3.21 HR/9 and an 8.36 ERA.
The Twins did, of course, acquire Anthony DeSclafani in the Jorge Polanco trade in late January. They were rolling the dice on his elbow, knowing that an injury had shortened his 2023 season and that he wasn't entirely out of the woods in terms of needing surgery. Indeed, he did, and he's now out for the season. Though it was necessitated by their ownership-enforced financial constraints, the gamble on DeSclafani turned out to be a calamitous one.
Going Cheap at 1B/DH
Many Twins fans hoped for another high-upside bat this winter, but it wasn’t in the cards. Instead, 38-year-old Carlos Santana was brought in for his sure-handed defense and discerning eye at the plate. He was immediately considered an everyday player, despite his pedestrian .724 OPS from the left side in 2023. In 2024, fans are begging for pedestrian output from the veteran first baseman.
Santana has been one of the worst hitters in baseball. At his age, many are already starting to wonder if the Twins caught him at the end of the road. There are no signs of his once-elite plate discipline, and he’s striking out more than ever. His slash line of .135/.224/.154 is good for an 11 wRC+. With the injury situation, the Twins have no choice but to write his name into the lineup every day.
The front office may have targeted Santana regardless of payroll, with him having spent years in Cleveland and having veteran status. Their choice not to (or inability to) aim higher has already hurt the team, as Santana has been the least valuable player on the roster with a -0.4 fWAR. The payroll situation and his status as a veteran will almost surely afford him extra time on the roster, as we’ve seen so often.
Tendering Kyle Farmer
Farmer had a solid 2023 with the Twins, but his $6.3 million projected salary seemed like an easy non-tender situation, so much so that Farmer himself was surprised when the Twins brought him back. That decision has looked worse and worse ever since.
The Twins went on to massively cut payroll, making that dollar amount a real headscratcher for a 33-year-old weak-side platoon player. That money could have been much better spent on an arm to push Varland into a depth role or put toward first base to find a better option than Santana. The case could be made that we’re lucky to have him, now that he’s needed on a near-everyday basis, but Farmer has been right there with Santana as one of the least valuable players on the roster, despite not seeing the field nearly as often.
The cherry on top of the Farmer situation is that, with Correa out, he doesn’t even appear to be the primary shortstop. His price tag becomes even more questionable if he’s mostly an option at non-premium positions. The amount of money is small enough that it shouldn’t be an issue, but the Twins made it one with their payroll slashing.
To a degree, the Twins were destined to struggle, given the number of injuries that have already occurred this season. While acknowledging this, it’s fair to note that decisions made along the way set them up for total catastrophe if a handful of players went down. It seems that the payroll situation made the bitter 2022 season a distant memory, and now all the Twins can do is hope the season isn’t already lost when their star players return.
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