The Twins Have a Starting Pitching Crisis Brewing for 2028

The Minnesota Twins have plenty of questions to answer about their starting rotation heading into the 2027 season. However, looking one year further into the future reveals an even bigger challenge. Minnesota could lose four of its current starting pitchers to free agency after the 2027 campaign, leaving significant holes to fill in the rotation.

Pablo López is under contract through next season. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Dean Kremer will all be arbitration-eligible for the final time in 2027. Unless the Twins extend any of those pitchers or bring them back on new contracts, the organization could be looking at a dramatically different rotation in 2028.

Minnesota has several young pitchers who could step into those openings. However, potential is not the same as proven production, and injuries have already complicated the development of multiple arms in the organization. Let's examine the options who could shape the Twins' starting rotation in 2028 and beyond.

Taj Bradley

Bradley is the easiest name to pencil into Minnesota's future rotation. After arriving from Tampa Bay, he emerged as the Twins' best starting pitcher in 2026 and gave the organization a potential frontline arm to build around. Bradley finished the season with a 3.73 ERA, 113 ERA+, 4.4 rWAR and 205 strikeouts across 178 1/3 innings. He also made 31 starts, providing the kind of workload Minnesota needs from a dependable rotation anchor. His strikeout total ranked fifth among the American League's starters, demonstrating the swing-and-miss ability that made him an intriguing acquisition.

Bradley is entering his first year of arbitration, giving Minnesota three more seasons of team control after 2026. That timeline makes him particularly important as the organization evaluates its long-term pitching plans. The Twins should explore a contract extension this winter. Bradley is young enough to remain a core piece of the rotation for several seasons, and securing him now could provide cost certainty while allowing the club to build around an established starter. Minnesota has other pitching questions to answer, but Bradley should be part of the solution rather than another uncertainty.

Connor Prielipp

Prielipp represents another opportunity for Minnesota to develop a long-term rotation piece. He stayed healthy throughout the 2026 season, an encouraging development for a pitcher whose career has been complicated by injuries. He recorded a 4.87 ERA, 3.73 FIP, with 128 strikeouts over 125 2/3 innings, making 22 starts. Those numbers leave room for improvement, but getting through a season with a substantial workload was an important step in his development.

Prielipp will not reach arbitration until 2029 and is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2032 season. He should still be in his prime when that opportunity arrives, making him a potentially valuable piece of Minnesota's future. The concern is whether he can continue staying healthy. His injury history makes it difficult to assume that one relatively healthy season guarantees long-term durability. If Prielipp can build on his 2026 performance and establish greater consistency, he could become a dependable member of the rotation. The Twins will need to see more before treating him as a sure thing.

Zebby Matthews

Matthews showed flashes of being a dependable starter in 2026, particularly during August, when he looked like one of Minnesota's better rotation options. However, he struggled down the stretch, raising questions about his ability to maintain that performance over a full season. He finished with a 4.90 ERA, 4.70 FIP, and 116 strikeouts across 130 1/3 innings. His 39 walks were a manageable number, but he also surrendered 24 home runs. Limiting damage when hitters make contact will be an important area for improvement.

There is a possibility Matthews could eventually find more success in the bullpen, where his stuff might play up in shorter appearances. Still, Minnesota should continue giving him opportunities to start. The organization needs to determine whether he can consistently work through a lineup multiple times before making a permanent decision about his role.

Matthews is scheduled to reach arbitration in 2028 and free agency in 2031. That gives the Twins time to evaluate his development, but his next couple of seasons will be important in determining whether he becomes a rotation fixture or a potential bullpen option.

Mick Abel

Abel is another young pitcher who could factor into Minnesota's plans, but his recovery from elbow surgery will play a significant role in determining his future. The right-hander underwent successful arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow on July 1, 2026. Before the procedure, Abel made four appearances, including three starts, and posted a 3.98 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings. That was a small sample, but it offered some encouraging signs about his potential.

Abel is not scheduled to reach arbitration until 2029 and can remain under team control through the 2031 season before reaching free agency in 2032. That timeline gives the Twins several seasons to evaluate him, provided he can return to the mound and stay healthy.

Minnesota will need to see how Abel looks after his recovery before making any long-term assumptions. His ability to regain his previous form, build up his workload, and consistently get through starts will determine whether he can help fill one of the rotation's potential openings.

Kendry Rojas

Rojas had an interesting developmental season in 2026. The young left-hander showed enough promise to remain in the conversation for a future pitching role, but Minnesota used him in a relatively limited capacity. 

He never threw more than four innings or 65 pitches in a single appearance. That workload makes it difficult to determine whether he can handle the demands of a major-league starting rotation. Rojas recorded a 3.34 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings in the majors. However, he also issued 22 walks, highlighting an area that needs improvement as he continues to develop.

The Twins should use the 2027 season to determine whether Rojas is a legitimate starting option or whether his future might be better suited to the bullpen. His limited workload could have been part of a deliberate development plan, but the organization eventually needs to see how he performs with a more traditional starter's workload.

Ryan Gallagher

Gallagher is another organizational arm who could work his way into the rotation conversation, although he has more development ahead of him than Minnesota's major-league options. The 23-year-old right-hander pitched across two minor-league levels in 2026, totaling 113 innings. He finished with a 5.89 ERA, allowing 117 hits and recording 120 strikeouts while issuing 53 walks.

Those numbers illustrate both his potential and the work still required. Gallagher showed an ability to miss bats, but his run prevention and command will need to improve if he is going to emerge as a viable major-league starter.

The Twins have time to evaluate his progress, and Gallagher does not need to be ready for a major-league rotation immediately. A stronger 2027 season could help establish whether he belongs in the organization's longer-term plans or is better suited to a depth role.

Riley Quick

Quick is a younger pitching prospect who could become more relevant to the rotation picture as he advances through the minor leagues. The 22-year-old spent time across three minor-league levels in 2026, accumulating 77 2/3 innings. He posted a 4.29 ERA and struck out 108 hitters while allowing 57 hits. His 46 walks, however, show that command remains an important part of his development.

Quick's strikeout ability is an encouraging starting point. Missing bats is an important trait for any prospective major-league starter, but he will need to pair that ability with improved control and greater consistency.

The Twins should continue developing Quick as a starter until his performance suggests otherwise. His 2027 assignments will help determine whether he can handle a larger workload and continue advancing toward the upper levels of the organization. He is not an immediate solution to the potential 2028 rotation openings, but a strong developmental season could put him on the radar.

Adrian Bohorquez

Bohorquez is another prospect worth monitoring as Minnesota looks beyond its current group of major-league starters. The 21-year-old right-hander pitched across three minor-league levels in 2026, recording a 3.29 ERA over 54 2/3 innings. He allowed 39 hits and struck out 65 batters, demonstrating an ability to limit contact while generating strikeouts.

His workload was considerably smaller than those of Gallagher and some of the organization's other starting prospects. That makes it difficult to project him into a major-league rotation just yet, but his results provide a foundation to build on.

Bohorquez will need to demonstrate that he can handle more innings, maintain his effectiveness against more advanced hitters, and develop the consistency required of a starting pitcher. His next steps through the minor leagues should provide a clearer picture of his ceiling.

Like Quick and Gallagher, Bohorquez remains a developmental possibility rather than a guaranteed rotation option. The Twins need several prospects to take meaningful steps forward if they want to build a sustainable rotation internally.

How Will the Twins Fill the Rotation in 2028?

The Twins have time to address their long-term rotation concerns, but they cannot assume every young pitcher will develop as hoped. Bradley looks like the clearest building block, while Prielipp, Matthews, Abel, and Rojas each have opportunities to establish themselves in different ways. Gallagher, Quick, and Bohorquez offer additional possibilities, although they still need to prove they can handle the demands of higher-level competition.

Minnesota should also recognize that developing a rotation entirely from within is difficult. Injuries, inconsistent performance, and stalled development can quickly turn apparent organizational depth into a shortage of reliable starters.

Extending Bradley would be a logical first step. The Twins should also continue evaluating their younger arms while remaining open to acquiring starting pitching through trades or free agency. The 2027 season will be important for identifying which pitchers belong in the long-term picture. By the time 2028 arrives, Minnesota could have several young starters ready to take on larger roles. However, the organization will need more than potential to replace the experience and production that could depart.

The question is not simply who will start games for the Twins in 2028. It is whether Minnesota can develop enough reliable pitching to avoid rebuilding its rotation from scratch.

Who will be part of Minnesota’s 2028 rotation? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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