The Twins Are Building an Offensive Foundation That Could Last for Years

A foundation for the future, until the next trade deadline get in the way.

Building an offensive foundation won't matter if you can't keep your good pitchers. 

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

What has Roden done that says he should replace someone hitting .289 with a .830 OPS.  I get everyone wants Larnach traded but Roden has done nothing in nearly 200 AB's in the major leagues.  Why is he being treated like a can't miss prospect.  The eye test says he is a fourth outfielder at best. Fedko's numbers in the minors are similar to Roden's and he is the same age.  Everyone says Fedko is a bust after 16 AB's but Roden needs to be in the starting lineup.  I really don't see much difference between the two.   If you are going to replace Larnach, it should be with Jenkins, who has more upside than either Larnach or Roden.  Let's stop rearranging the chairs on the Titantic.

And as an FYI, I am not advocating for Fedko to be up here, I am pointing out what I think is flawed logic from comments I am seeing on here in the various threads.

I’m not saying Roden’s a can’t miss prospect. I’m more saying that they have five guys who have probably earned a shot or are very close to that point, and with at most two spots that might have an opening. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Mendez are the other four. Roden’s merely the first in line for me given the time he’s already spent in AAA and that he’s on the 40 man roster already. Give him half a season of regular playing time to show what he can do in the majors and see if you have a potential ML contributor. I assume he’ll be a step down from Larnach’s offense, but a step up in defense. And I mainly don’t want him to get squeezed and leave for no return if he’s an MLB-caliber player (thinking of adding Brent Rooker as a trade throw-in as an example).

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

What has Roden done that says he should replace someone hitting .289 with a .830 OPS.  I get everyone wants Larnach traded but Roden has done nothing in nearly 200 AB's in the major leagues.  Why is he being treated like a can't miss prospect.  The eye test says he is a fourth outfielder at best. Fedko's numbers in the minors are similar to Roden's and he is the same age.  Everyone says Fedko is a bust after 16 AB's but Roden needs to be in the starting lineup.  I really don't see much difference between the two.   If you are going to replace Larnach, it should be with Jenkins, who has more upside than either Larnach or Roden.  Let's stop rearranging the chairs on the Titantic.

And as an FYI, I am not advocating for Fedko to be up here, I am pointing out what I think is flawed logic from comments I am seeing on here in the various threads.

I admire your Fedko loyalty.  Makes me smile.  (Not in a derogative way)

I don't know that he will be around (the Twins that is) after 2026, but it would be a fabulous story if he makes it, and ur proven right.  There is quite the logjam in the Twins OF but possibly theres a better situation elsewhere.

its what makes baseball and the minors fun, attaching to a player and hoping it works.  Personally im ride or die for Billy Amick.  We'll see how that goes :)

How great is it to know that if / when the time comes to dip into the farm we might be bringing up guys like Jenkins & Culpepper instead of Kyle Garlick & JT Riddle.

The top of the system is incredibly strong: I'm not sure another team can match Jenkins/Culpepper/Lackey/Houston (I'm very high on both SS compared to the media).  Really lacking in 2nd tier players though

What this best indicates is that we need to trade the veterans on this roster that will not be part of this foundation away for pitching prospects to match the offense in the same timeline.    Someone posted the dream 2028 lineup, and it looks great on paper, but the problem is that the bulk of that roster will be very inexperienced players who will take time and will lose a lot of games because of that inexperience.   The 1987 WS team did and the veterans listed in that group will be that much older. 

In 2028 Byron Buxton will be 34 years old and Joe Ryan 32.   They are in their declining years were injury issues can be even more significant.

Also, it does require that the Twins sign Ryan to that huge contract (I think the guy says $210 over six years) and Buxton would probably require an extension to enter his final year of his deal.   That would be completely out of character for the Twins ownership group, especially investing that contract in Ryan who would be 38 in the final season of his contract.   Plus, the probability of Pablo Lopez being part of that group is very low.

This is the logical approach, with the only caveat being that suddenly the ownership group changes how they finance the team and will be willing to add significant players to that group, especially on the pitching side.  Not the low ball veterans like Josh Bell and Anthony Banda, but players earning $10, $20, or even $30 million per season to fit in the holes in this roster.  

Lets put it this way, to get to "AVERAGE" MLB roster payroll the Twins would have to add $70 million in salary to the 2026 budget.   That is one $30 million per year player and 2 $20 million per year players.  If we had those players on the roster right now they would be true contenders.   But they don't because this ownership group, and I can only say it one way, ****S OVER its fans.  It is in a solid market with a beautiful urban stadium and they run it on a shoe string.

In my version of this, I picture Tait as the LH catcher with Lackey getting most starts. and both of them getting ample time at DH, Keaschall’s probably the fourth outfielder, 

Would love for Mendez to be in the picture and possibly getting time at 1B as a LH bat there, but it seems they already gave up on that?

I’d say you’re missing Rojas from the bullpen.

And for me Quick would still be a starter (at least for most of the season - a late season switch to reliever would work for the stretch run and playoffs).
 

2 hours ago, clone52 said:

Let's just dream about the 2028 Roster with every falling right.

C: Lackey
1B: Lewis
2B: Culpeper
3B: Lee
SS: Houston
LF: Rodriguez
CF: Buxton
RF: Jenkins
DH: Kaeschall

Bench:
Veteran Catcher
Clemens
Kriedler
Roden

This lineup is young and crazy cheap.  Probably less than $50M. 

Re-sign Ryan (6/210) and Lopez (2/35)

Rotation

Ryan
Bradley
Prielipp
Lopez
Abel

That's about $60M for the rotation.

Bullpen (Dream that Morris and Gomez are for real and they piece together a bunch of young arms)

Gomez
Morris
Quick
Raya
Culpepper
Renfrow
Burns
W.S. Go (now jersey #2 for the defending World Series Champions)

$10M Bullpen

$20M to fill out forty man roster

Total Salary $140M (hopefully below salary floor so they have to go spend more)

 

 

 

43 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

What this best indicates is that we need to trade the veterans on this roster that will not be part of this foundation away for pitching prospects to match the offense in the same timeline.    Someone posted the dream 2028 lineup, and it looks great on paper, but the problem is that the bulk of that roster will be very inexperienced players who will take time and will lose a lot of games because of that inexperience.   The 1987 WS team did and the veterans listed in that group will be that much older. 

In 2028 Byron Buxton will be 34 years old and Joe Ryan 32.   They are in their declining years were injury issues can be even more significant.

Also, it does require that the Twins sign Ryan to that huge contract (I think the guy says $210 over six years) and Buxton would probably require an extension to enter his final year of his deal.   That would be completely out of character for the Twins ownership group, especially investing that contract in Ryan who would be 38 in the final season of his contract.   Plus, the probability of Pablo Lopez being part of that group is very low.

This is the logical approach, with the only caveat being that suddenly the ownership group changes how they finance the team and will be willing to add significant players to that group, especially on the pitching side.  Not the low ball veterans like Josh Bell and Anthony Banda, but players earning $10, $20, or even $30 million per season to fit in the holes in this roster.  

Lets put it this way, to get to "AVERAGE" MLB roster payroll the Twins would have to add $70 million in salary to the 2026 budget.   That is one $30 million per year player and 2 $20 million per year players.  If we had those players on the roster right now they would be true contenders.   But they don't because this ownership group, and I can only say it one way, ****S OVER its fans.  It is in a solid market with a beautiful urban stadium and they run it on a shoe string.

Opinion, speculation ana B.S.

3 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Opinion, speculation ana B.S.

Ummmmmm, sure.    Your response is such a fact based statement it should be sent to law schools to add to their curriculum.  

Do you disagree that the Twins ownership is cheap?  And the ages of the players?   How much salary this team would have to add to even reach the league average?  

I do not see a hybrid keeping the existing veteran players on this roster into the future where the young prospects with potential will be developed into a contending team as a workable solution.   It is better to pull the band aid and chose a route.  The choices are 1.  ownership opens its wallet and adds the veteran free agents now and builds the top prospects into the roster  or 2.  complete rebuild with this group of prospects plus high end prospects we get in trades.

But the most likely path is the Twins will continue to go their same old same old, slowly moving up the prospects and filling the holes in the line up with low budget players.

2 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

Ummmmmm, sure.    Your response is such a fact based statement it should be sent to law schools to add to their curriculum.  

Do you disagree that the Twins ownership is cheap?  And the ages of the players?   How much salary this team would have to add to even reach the league average?  

I do not see a hybrid keeping the existing veteran players on this roster into the future where the young prospects with potential will be developed into a contending team as a workable solution.   It is better to pull the band aid and chose a route.  The choices are 1.  ownership opens its wallet and adds the veteran free agents now and builds the top prospects into the roster  or 2.  complete rebuild with this group of prospects plus high end prospects we get in trades.

But the most likely path is the Twins will continue to go their same old same old, slowly moving up the prospects and filling the holes in the line up with low budget players.

Sorry, you're right.  Just seeing so many experts writing what looks like 100% fact and it's just not.  We fans think we know more than those paid to spend the majority of their time figuring this stuff out.  So, my opinion is the only correct way to go.  Or at least that is how many of these comments come across.

1 hour ago, Heiny said:

Sorry, you're right.  Just seeing so many experts writing what looks like 100% fact and it's just not.  We fans think we know more than those paid to spend the majority of their time figuring this stuff out.  So, my opinion is the only correct way to go.  Or at least that is how many of these comments come across.

Like I said, the real basis of my argument is the fact, the ABSOLUTE fact that cannot be denied, is that the Twins ownership will not spend the money.  That is the one consistent feature of this team across GMs and Managers.

If we were really serious about our prospects and that this is a good team that can be competitive, we would be looking at MAJOR trades at the deadline.  Packaging prospects (prolly not Culpepper or Jenkins) and perhaps one of the younger players already on the roster like Keachall, to bring in a player that will be difference makers, ALONG with a few other minor moves.

Put a trade package of players together for Josh Hader or Reid Detmers.  

How about another for Mason Miller to bring in a true closer.

Put another package together for Brooks Raley.

It might cost the Twins Luke keaschall or Brooks Lee, Eduardo Tait, Gabe Gonzolaes, and a few other players, and down the road a boat load of money to keep them signed, but that is what real contenders with REAL OWNERSHIP does.   

1 hour ago, LyleCole said:

Like I said, the real basis of my argument is the fact, the ABSOLUTE fact that cannot be denied, is that the Twins ownership will not spend the money.  That is the one consistent feature of this team across GMs and Managers.

That is an opinion, what is the amount that you want them to spend.  They were up to $160m, now should they have right sized the payroll, I get if you disagree with that.  They did pony up money for Mauer and Puckett before them.  Quite honestly I don't think Ryan wanted to spend on free agents, he was more risk averse, and could identify talent better than the current group could.

But we don't know what the conversations were, so to say they won't spend money is an opinion, the only way it becomes close to fact is if you put a number behind it and say you know that the GM or President of Baseball Operations was denied the ability to spend that amount.

11 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

That is an opinion, what is the amount that you want them to spend.  They were up to $160m, now should they have right sized the payroll, I get if you disagree with that.  They did pony up money for Mauer and Puckett before them.  Quite honestly I don't think Ryan wanted to spend on free agents, he was more risk averse, and could identify talent better than the current group could.

But we don't know what the conversations were, so to say they won't spend money is an opinion, the only way it becomes close to fact is if you put a number behind it and say you know that the GM or President of Baseball Operations was denied the ability to spend that amount.

IT isn't an opinion, it is fact.

In the past 15 years the Twins have had a total payroll above the median payroll 2 times,  peaking at 12th place in 2000 ****ing 12.  They were 15th in payroll in 2023.

In the past 15 years the Twins have only spent more than the league average once, in 2012, by $3 million.   Even with that outlier year, they have underspent the average MLB payroll by $24.8 million annually.  

Please, signing Puckett and Mauer are anecdotal and not even close to an argument.  

And here is what it meant:  in the last 15 seasons we have gone to the playoffs 4 times.  We have one single playoff win to show for it, with a playoff record in that stretch of 1-9.

If the owners spend the money to just the league average adding 1-2 quality players to the roster, they could have been contenders, not pretenders.  

If they want to spend money now to make this team competitive, then do it and acquire some players at the deadline and make the contract offers to Jeffers and Ryan needed to retain them, along with other high end players. 

If they do not, then dump everything that moves to build up the prospect bank so that in a handful of years we can become competitive.  

1 minute ago, LyleCole said:

IT isn't an opinion, it is fact.

In the past 15 years the Twins have had a total payroll above the median payroll 2 times,  peaking at 12th place in 2000 ****ing 12.  They were 15th in payroll in 2023.

In the past 15 years the Twins have only spent more than the league average once, in 2012, by $3 million.   Even with that outlier year, they have underspent the average MLB payroll by $24.8 million annually.  

Please, signing Puckett and Mauer are anecdotal and not even close to an argument.  

And here is what it meant:  in the last 15 seasons we have gone to the playoffs 4 times.  We have one single playoff win to show for it, with a playoff record in that stretch of 1-9.

If the owners spend the money to just the league average adding 1-2 quality players to the roster, they could have been contenders, not pretenders.  

If they want to spend money now to make this team competitive, then do it and acquire some players at the deadline and make the contract offers to Jeffers and Ryan needed to retain them, along with other high end players. 

If they do not, then dump everything that moves to build up the prospect bank so that in a handful of years we can become competitive.  

Ok so they haven't spent above the median payroll, that I will take as a fact.  You do understand that the head of baseball operations brings to ownership the plan and ownership says yay or nay.  Have you sat in on those conversations and know for a fact that the Executive Owner at the time said no to those requests.  If you weren't then you can't say as a fact that ownership won't spend money.  As I said before I doubt Ryan went after the free agents, that is the way he operated and was successful in his first stint as GM.

You still won't say how much money they need to spend,  You just say trade for all these people, resign Jeffers and Ryan and that it will cost a boatload of money.  What is the magic number.  They aren't going to match the Dodgers or the New York teams.  There are other ways to build a team, and other GM's have figured that out.

30 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Ok so they haven't spent above the median payroll, that I will take as a fact.  You do understand that the head of baseball operations brings to ownership the plan and ownership says yay or nay.  Have you sat in on those conversations and know for a fact that the Executive Owner at the time said no to those requests.  If you weren't then you can't say as a fact that ownership won't spend money.  As I said before I doubt Ryan went after the free agents, that is the way he operated and was successful in his first stint as GM.

You still won't say how much money they need to spend,  You just say trade for all these people, resign Jeffers and Ryan and that it will cost a boatload of money.  What is the magic number.  They aren't going to match the Dodgers or the New York teams.  There are other ways to build a team, and other GM's have figured that out.

Yeah.  If you believe that the head of Baseball Operations, whose job really depends on how the team performs not by the money it makes (or does not lose), would WILLINGLY bring to ownership these payroll budgets then I have a bridge to sell you. 

10 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

Yeah.  If you believe that the head of Baseball Operations, whose job really depends on how the team performs not by the money it makes (or does not lose), would WILLINGLY bring to ownership these payroll budgets then I have a bridge to sell you. 

 

Ok, so you are upset with ownership, I get it,  But you can't even separate fact from fiction.  So when the budget was $160m, Falvey was supposed to present what a $200 to S220m budget.  That is not reality in any business model to expect that kind of increase.  You can build a team and have playoff success with lower budgets and that has been proven.  I mean Falvey signed Bell to be the starting first baseman, that is enough to show I wouldn't trust him with a lemonade stand much less a multi million dollar budget.

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

Ok, so you are upset with ownership, I get it,  But you can't even separate fact from fiction.  So when the budget was $160m, Falvey was supposed to present what a $200 to S220m budget.  That is not reality in any business model to expect that kind of increase.  You can build a team and have playoff success with lower budgets and that has been proven.  I mean Falvey signed Bell to be the starting first baseman, that is enough to show I wouldn't trust him with a lemonade stand much less a multi million dollar budget.

No, you stated that the President of Baseball Operations, which was Derek Falvey, presented the budgets to ownership.  To refresh your memory here is the quote "You do understand that the head of baseball operations brings to ownership the plan " which implied that he was the one setting the budget.  And you do understand that is not true.  Ownership set the budgets and the front office had to make the roster within those parameters.

20 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

No, you stated that the President of Baseball Operations, which was Derek Falvey, presented the budgets to ownership.  To refresh your memory here is the quote "You do understand that the head of baseball operations brings to ownership the plan " which implied that he was the one setting the budget.  And you do understand that is not true.  Ownership set the budgets and the front office had to make the roster within those parameters.

 

The plan includes what they want to spend.  Did Joe come to Falvey and say hey let's sign Correa.  No he didn't because he wasn't responsible for day to day.  The managers or in this case the VP of Baseball Ops is responsible for saying what he needs to run the team and set his roster.  The owners review and say yay or nay.  They don't sit there with a dart board and say oh you can have this amount.  There are many other expenses other than player salaries that need to be factored in.

27 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Perhaps you are not aware that the Twins spent more money on player's salaries during the entirety (add it all up) of Derek Falvey's tenure than any of the other teams in their division. 

Perhaps you have been a victim of the full-on anti-ownership writing since the budget was cut after the 2023 season. Perhaps you think that ownership scouts and signs players. 

Perhaps you believe that teams like the Twins (might include Milwaukee, Kansas City, Cleveland, and more) have the ability to run payrolls just below the Dodgers, Yankees, and a few others.

I do not know the Pohlads. I find it useless to laud (as they were in 1987) or condemn them (current time period). The front office has a budget and builds the team. Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and all others do the same. Perhaps you feel there is secret money somewhere being hoarded. I can't know what you beliefs are regarding the Twins.

The current front office is busy attempting to build a competitive team. The success of their efforts will be know in a decade. Winning a World Series is always the goal but If winning a World Series is the only barometer of success, then every team but the Los Angeles Dodgers were horrible failures and losers.

I'm enjoying the current team and a number of the prospects in the minor leagues. Ownership is not my concern.

IF your goal is to win a division then perhaps that is meaningful.  Since 2000 we have won the division 9 times, which seems reasonable.  But, we have only been the wild card once in those 26 years.  

ANd of course, in those 10 playoff trips we have won one wild card series and one division series (in 2002).  I think it is pretty telling that in 6 of the 9 division championships, the Twins would not have been the wild card team.  We have competed in the worst division in the American League.  

And, again even though we had HOF player in Joe Mauer, a player who was a HOF level player in his shortened career, and a mulitple Cy Young winner, we did not have a good enough team to truly compete for the World Series.  If you look at all of those rosters they had major holes up and down because the ownership did not invest in the team.

I am glad you enjoy this team.  Sometimes the entertainment is more valuable than the winning.   But just think how good the team would be if the owners invested $50 million in pitching.  

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

People constantly throwing out the straw man the twins will never spend the most money in baseball shows a lot about their weak arguments. 

What evidence do you have to suggest they will?   They have not spent the money to be competitive.   They won two championships more than 35 years ago with a special combination of players but have not invested on the team to keep it competitive.

11 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

In a post about younger players and not free agency we are still going to take shots at ownership.  What do they have to do with player development or timelines when they come up.  That is on Zoll to set up a structure to make sure these guys develop and have a shot at being productive major leaguers.  If he is not up to the task, then ownership needs to replace him.  But I don't think Tom P. is sitting down in Cedar Rapids telling Tait what to work on with his swing.

T. Pohlad just talked to the press about the team strategy on building upon this years mediocre success and future plans. He isn’t coaching up players but he is definitely working with Zoll on a daily basis on the business of player acquisition and organizational structure.  T.Pohlad is not considered a hands off owner. 

1 minute ago, Fatbat said:

T. Pohlad just talked to the press about the team strategy on building upon this years mediocre success and future plans. He isn’t coaching up players but he is definitely working with Zoll on a daily basis on the business of player acquisition and organizational structure.  T.Pohlad is not considered a hands off owner. 

That is not a good thing to me if he is.  He knows nothing about evaluating players or what is needed to run the day to day operations.  But it also doesn't mean the previous executive owners were this way, especially Jim.  I know Tom P. has said he is trying to learn about the business but he needs to hire people who know what they are doing and let them do their job.