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    The Trade Market For Trevor Plouffe


    Nick Nelson

    Trevor Plouffe is a key figure in the coming offseason for the Minnesota Twins, with the presence of Miguel Sano and the club's desire to get find him a spot in the field creating an interesting dynamic.

    I wouldn't say Plouffe is expendable – the Twins can't afford to simply give away a quality bat like his – but it would make sense to trade him this winter if the right opportunity presented itself.

    So what kind of return can we expect for Plouffe?

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    Many have been skeptical of Sano's ability to excel at third base because of his size, but Twins officials continue to cite his underrated athleticism in saying he can be an asset there. He did look decent in limited duty at the hot corner as a rookie.

    This much is clear: Sano is much more valuable if he's playing in the field, and relegating him to DH duty this early in his career is less than ideal. He won't be playing first base any time soon, and he sure seems like a better bet at third than in the outfield, where the Twins are apparently going to take a look at him even though he's never played there before.

    Trading Plouffe would open up third base while also adding payroll flexibility, as the 29-year-old is expected to make somewhere around $8 million through arbitration next year.

    But he was a big piece for the Twins offense this season. He batted fourth or fifth in 78 percent of Minnesota's games and drove in a team-leading 86 runs. That production is not easily replaced, and his defense at third was very solid to boot.

    The problem is that from the outside, Plouffe might not look quite as valuable as he does from the inside. Among 21 qualified MLB third basemen, he ranked 15th in OPS, eighth in home runs and 14th in WAR. By the numbers, he was not a standout starter at his position.

    He was, however, a legitimate starter, as well as a credible threat in the middle of the lineup. That's something plenty of teams could use. So what might another GM be willing to give up in order to acquire Plouffe, who has two years of team control remaining?

    Working in Terry Ryan's favor is a very thin free agent market at third base. The top name available is David Freese, who is basically an older and inferior version of Plouffe. After that, there's nobody that could really be viewed as a viable starter.

    That means clubs in dire need of help at the hot corner will be facing limited options this offseason. Here's a look at four such clubs, with a glance at what could be on the table in a potential Plouffe trade.

    Milwaukee Brewers

    Aramis Ramirez was Milwaukee's regular at third through the first half, but they traded him to Pittsburgh in July. Hernan Perez got most of the starts thereafter, but did little to establish himself and has never really profiled as a big-league starter. The Brewers lack impact prospects at the position, and need to right the ship following a 94-loss season, so they will surely be aggressive in pursuit of upgrades.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    The Brewers recently exercised the $8 million option for 2016 on Adam Lind's contract. He'd make a lot of sense as a return piece in a Plouffe trade, because he could take over the freshly vacated DH spot and his powerful lefty bat would look even better than Plouffe's behind Sano. Milwaukee would maybe have to throw in an additional mid-level prospect since the Twins would be losing a year of team control in going from Plouffe to Lind.

    Atlanta Braves

    Atlanta had nine different players start at third base in 2015, with none drawing more than 41 starts. Nobody is coming up internally to help out at the position so they have a strong need to look outside. The Braves scored the fewest runs in baseball this year and had only one player surpass 10 home runs, so they could definitely use a power infusion.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    One arm that could be of great interest to the Twins is Arodys Vizcaino. The 24-year-old throws in the high 90s and took over as Atlanta's closer in September, finishing the year with a 1.60 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 33 innings. He missed the first half of this season after testing positive for the same drug as Ervin Santana, but bounced back nicely and finally showed signs of reining in the control issues that have been his limitation. Skilled young catcher Christian Bethancourt is another to watch.

    San Diego Padres

    The incumbent, Yangervis Solarte, is an overachiever who lacks the talent of a player like Plouffe. The Padres are always searching for offensive punch, and might be especially interested in a right-handed bat with Justin Upton likely to depart as a free agent.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    The most appealing player on the San Diego roster is Derek Norris, a 27-year-old catcher with a good bat. He's young and won't be a free agent until 2019 so he'd be a long-term answer at a position where the Twins sorely need one. Plouffe plus a prospect in the Jorge Polanco range might get it done.

    Chicago White Sox

    Trades within the division are rare, so this might be a long shot, but the White Sox are truly hopeless at third base. Tyler Saladino received the most starts for them this year, leading a bunch that also included Conor Gilaspie, Gordon Beckham and Mike Olt. No help from the farm is near.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    The White Sox have a number of very good right-handed pitching prospects, including Spencer Adams, Tyler Danish, Carson Fulmer and Frankie Montas. If the Twins could add any of those arms to their system, while finding a bat elsewhere to replace Plouffe's, it would be a savvy move for the long-term. Again: it's hard to see Chicago sending one of its better young arms to a division rival.

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    In KLAW's insider piece today, he says there is no true FA third baseman even available. None. Nada. Nil. I'd think that scarcity of resources is good for Plouffe's value....

    The demand side is the problem. Third-base is absolutely stacked right now, and 14 teams were able to get 3+ WAR production, and an additional 7 teams got 2+ WAR. So for the majority of teams, Plouffe represents basically a lateral move at best. For example, does it really make sense for the Padres to upgrade from a 2 WAR Solarte who is making peanuts to a 2.5 WAR Plouffe? And though Plouffe is cost-controlled, he isn't necessarily cheap - he will probably make ~$20M over the next two seasons in arbitration. 

     

    It is unfortunate that right now the teams with 3B needs are either rebuilding, have a young or expensive incumbent, or are in the division. 

    When Terry Ryan says Plouffe is a solid middle of the order bat, I think he means Brian Dozier. As someone said above, if Plouffe was a #7 hitter, he'd be good. There's no reason to go into 2016 with Plouffe hitting behind Sano when Rosario and Dozier are more capable of hitting behind Sano.

     

    Interesting -- do you have the link?  The Astros have Jed Lowrie under contract for 2 more seasons plus a third option year, all at very reasonable salaries (perhaps less than Plouffe's remaining arbitration awards).  Plus they have Luis Valbuena under control for another season, and the last 3 years he's been a 106 OPS+ bat with average defense at third base.  Not to mention a couple solid looking utility options in Gonzalez and Villar.  Plus two upper-minors 3B in their top ~10 prospects by Sickels.

     

    Add in one of the best young starting 2B and SS combos in the league, I really can't see them seeking more MLB infielders unless it was a Donaldson-type opportunity.

     

    By Sickels, Feliz was their #3 preseason prospect for 2015, quite possibly #1 by now, grade B+/B.

    I know it's come up a couple times but here's the last place I saw it in the comment section - http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/11/3/9662808/identifying-interesting-offseason-targets-for-the-astros#comments

     

     

    OK, so I now think Plouffe gets moved.  Going by team fWAR for third base (not a great stat), the teams below us at 3B last year that might be considered contenders (ie guys who might want Plouffe for two years) are:

    Red Sox -2.5 WAR

    DBacks 0.5 WAR

    Yankees, Padres, Cleveland at 1.2 WAR

    Angels 1.8 WAR

    Astros 2.5 WAR

    Nationals 3.0 WAR

     

    Twins were listed at 3.6.  

     

     

    Article from the San Diego Union regarding what San Diego is looking for and who might be on the trading block in order for them to accomplish it, including Shields, Kimbrel. Benoit, and Norris.  Any deal the Twins would make that included Shields would have to include Nolasco so it ends up a net 3 year 40 million investment but a blockbuster that included Shields, Kimbrel and Norris would get me excited for next year.  San Diego is looking for left-handed bats, left-handed pitching, a shortstop, and a third baseman.

     

    http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/nov/07/padres-hot-stove-offseason-preview/

    Well, with the Park posting Vargas may have become suddenly available as the Left Handed Bat, + Plouffe and Nolasco.  Maybe Polanco as well?  There are 3 of their needs right there for Shields, Kimbrel and Norris?  I would say unlikely but on the track to getting there.

     

    I also wonder how active San Diego will be in the trade market this year after last years cupboard emptying resulting not very good results.

     

    It is unfortunate that right now the teams with 3B needs are either rebuilding, have a young or expensive incumbent, or are in the division. 

    Great point.  Here you can see 2015 positional WAR by team:

     

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2015

     

    Twins are 14th, but within 0.1 of 17th.

     

    Teams below 17th:

     

    WSN
    LAA
    PHI
    ATL
    ARI
    SDP
    NYM
    NYY
    DET
    CLE
    CHW
    MIL
    BOS

     

    Just not a lot of good matches in this group.  I am sure plenty of teams would take Plouffe off our hands if we're selling, but we're not necessarily going to get great value or our preferred positional return (i.e. a catcher or prospects to flip for a catcher).

    Well, with the Park posting Vargas may have become suddenly available as the Left Handed Bat, + Plouffe and Nolasco.  Maybe Polanco as well?  There are 3 of their needs right there for Shields, Kimbrel and Norris?  I would say unlikely but on the track to getting there.

     

    I also wonder how active San Diego will be in the trade market this year after last years cupboard emptying resulting not very good results.

    Maybe Arcia instead? I'd rather keep a switch hitting masher as a bench bat/DH/1B type over Arcia and his inability to play in the OF when we have about 4 quality OFs either on the roster or knocking on the door.

     

    OK, so I now think Plouffe gets moved.  Going by team fWAR for third base (not a great stat), the teams below us at 3B last year that might be considered contenders (ie guys who might want Plouffe for two years) are:

    Red Sox -2.5 WAR

    DBacks 0.5 WAR

    Yankees, Padres, Cleveland at 1.2 WAR

    Angels 1.8 WAR

    Astros 2.5 WAR

    Nationals 3.0 WAR

     

    Twins were listed at 3.6.  

    The main 3B filter on Fangraphs combines the total stats for everyone who played at 3B. So in the Twins' case, the 3.6 WAR is spread over the 830+ PAs that Plouffe and Nunez had last year, even though most of Nunez's PAs were at SS. If you use the 3B Split instead, it tallies the stats for the players only when playing 3B. 

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=39&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

     

     

     

    OK, so I now think Plouffe gets moved.  Going by team fWAR for third base (not a great stat), the teams below us at 3B last year that might be considered contenders (ie guys who might want Plouffe for two years) are:

    Red Sox -2.5 WAR

    DBacks 0.5 WAR

    Yankees, Padres, Cleveland at 1.2 WAR

    Angels 1.8 WAR

    Astros 2.5 WAR

    Nationals 3.0 WAR

     

    Twins were listed at 3.6.  

    Careful, that fWAR list is actually the total stats of the players that qualify as 3B for that team, not just the stats of each team's starting 3B.  Notice the Twins have 842 PA, and the Red Sox only 563, the Diamondbacks 1228.  See my B-Ref link above for a more accurate look.

     

    Still, with your list, while in theory these teams could benefit from Plouffe, few of them are likely to seek him.

     

    Red Sox -- Sandoval under contract, Holt and Shaw as potential internal replacements
    DBacks -- Jake Lamb had better WAR/PA than Plouffe (all of their negative 3B WAR comes from Yasmany Tomas)
    Yankees -- Headley doesn't profile much different than Plouffe

    Padres -- given the position full-time, Solarte might not be much different than Plouffe

    Cleveland -- did pick up Chris Johnson late in the season, also Urshella was their #7 preseason prospect

    Angels -- declined QO for Freese who isn't much different than Plouffe
    Astros -- Valbuena/Lowrie produced close to Plouffe
    Nationals -- Escobar produced close to Plouffe

     

    Your best bet is probably Cleveland, who is in our division -- they'll probably prefer to sign Freese or Uribe or deal for a Valbuena/Lowrie type before they give us good value for Plouffe.

     

    The main 3B filter on Fangraphs combines the total stats for everyone who played at 3B. So in the Twins' case, the 3.6 WAR is spread over the 830+ PAs that Plouffe and Nunez had last year, even though most of Nunez's PAs were at SS. If you use the 3B Split instead, it tallies the stats for the players only when playing 3B. 

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=39&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

    Thanks, I figured there was a way to do that at Fangraphs!

    Interesting thread. I still see no rush to move Plouffe. All it would take is another 60 day DL stint by one Joe Mauer and we'd be short a bat. Having said that, if Park pans out then that would lessen the blow.

    Edited by Willihammer

     

    I know it's come up a couple times but here's the last place I saw it in the comment section - http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/11/3/9662808/identifying-interesting-offseason-targets-for-the-astros#comments

    I hope nobody is digging out trade proposals from the comments section here.   :)

     

    Searching the site, I found only one other mention of it, from June, by the exact same commenter, suggesting it is an extreme minority opinion:

    http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/7/27/9053813/trade-target-trevor-plouffe

     

    Seriously, I have no idea why the Astros would pursue Plouffe in trade, for perhaps their #1 org prospect, with Valbuena and Lowrie under contract and producing at a roughly similar rate, unless they can flip Valbuena or Lowrie as part of a bigger upgrade at another position.

    Edited by spycake

     

    Maybe Arcia instead? I'd rather keep a switch hitting masher as a bench bat/DH/1B type over Arcia and his inability to play in the OF when we have about 4 quality OFs either on the roster or knocking on the door.

    I would prefer Arcia as well, however, I don't think any team will trade for him knowing the Twins current situation at OF and DH.  He has to make the 25 man roster otherwise he is out of options and will be on waivers.  So unless they really really want him they can wait to see if he even makes the Twins roster which could be a stretch at this point given the current log jam at his spots.

     

    I hope nobody is digging out trade proposals from the comments section here.   :)

     

    Searching the site, I found only one other mention of it, from June, by the exact same commenter, suggesting it is an extreme minority opinion:

    http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/7/27/9053813/trade-target-trevor-plouffe

     

    Seriously, I have no idea why the Astros would pursue Plouffe in trade, for perhaps their #1 org prospect, with Valbuena and Lowrie under contract and producing at a roughly similar rate, unless they can flip Valbuena or Lowrie as part of a bigger upgrade at another position.

    I saw it on at least one other Astros blog but I have no idea which one, sorry.  

     

    I do think Plouffe is an upgrade for them (over the last two years, Plouffe has amassed more WAR than Lowrie and Valbuena combined) and they also have a problem at first base although they should probably give Singleton another shot.  

    I really like Bethancourt as a potential long-term solution at catcher. I know Atlanta is down on his handling of the staff and game calling, but those are Kurt Suzuki's strengths, so pairing them together for 2016 could result in some further development in those areas.

     

    In 143 career games at Triple-A, Bethancourt has hit .299/.327/.435 with 12 homers and last season between Atlanta and Gwinette he thew out 23 of 52 base stealers (44%).

     

    Well, with the Park posting Vargas may have become suddenly available as the Left Handed Bat, + Plouffe and Nolasco.  Maybe Polanco as well?  There are 3 of their needs right there for Shields, Kimbrel and Norris?  I would say unlikely but on the track to getting there.

     

    I also wonder how active San Diego will be in the trade market this year after last years cupboard emptying resulting not very good results.

    I think they'll be active if it can help them open some payroll flexibility.

     

    I like the package you're building here. They might prefer a lefty bat who could man their spacious CF, though - Rosario? He'd get a ton of triples there. As for the lefty starter, either Milone or Rogers should be on the table. Maybe throw in one of the upside bullpen guys, too. A 5 or 6 for 3 trade built around cost-controlled, MLB-ready players could net the Twins Shields, Norris, and Benoit (if not Kimbrel).

     

    I saw it on at least one other Astros blog but I have no idea which one, sorry.  

     

    I do think Plouffe is an upgrade for them (over the last two years, Plouffe has amassed more WAR than Lowrie and Valbuena combined) and they also have a problem at first base although they should probably give Singleton another shot.  

    Note that you also commented on that same poster's suggestion back in June, in case that is what you were thinking of.

     

    Plouffe does't beat them by raw fWAR -- Lowrie and Valbuena combined for 7, versus Plouffe's 6.1.  Plouffe does beat them in bWAR, although Lowrie logged most of his innings at short and DRS didn't care for his defense there.

     

    Of course, Plouffe has a WAR per PA advantage, but it's slight (roughly half a win over a full season) and almost all due to defense, further muddied by some positional differences (Valbuena and Lowrie haven't had anywhere near Plouffe's ample opportunity to become a competent defensive third baseman).  Valbuena actually has more Rbat than Plouffe, in fewer PA the last two seasons.

     

    As you say, they have issues at first, probably in the outfield and catcher too, and most teams have some kind of issues on their pitching staff.  I would be shocked if a speculative half-win defensive upgrade at third base would be any kind of priority for them.  Which is probably why I can't find any such suggestion anywhere, except by one commenter at one site.

    I'm also not syaing that there's any real interest in Plouffe from the Astros (or even if there's real interest in trading him from MN).  But it's something I saw from an Astros team themed website.  Would a trade make sense?  I have no idea.  But it's out there and not created by Twins-fans so I thought I'd throw it out there.  

     

    I'm sure the other place I saw it was a different Astros blog, not their SBNation site (although it came up there a couple times, as well).  

     

    Article from the San Diego Union regarding what San Diego is looking for and who might be on the trading block in order for them to accomplish it, including Shields, Kimbrel. Benoit, and Norris.  Any deal the Twins would make that included Shields would have to include Nolasco so it ends up a net 3 year 40 million investment but a blockbuster that included Shields, Kimbrel and Norris would get me excited for next year.  San Diego is looking for left-handed bats, left-handed pitching, a shortstop, and a third baseman.

     

    http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/nov/07/padres-hot-stove-offseason-preview/

     

    Thanks for the link!

     

    I'm not usually into speculating about trades, because they almost never happen as envisioned, but I am completely buying that San Diego is an intriguing match. They stretched their payroll to stock up on veterans and bombed. It's hard to imagine they wouldn't love the chance to shed some of that salary. And an ace pitcher, a catcher, a reliever are exactly what the Twins need.

     

    The fact that they are overpaid works in our favor here. The Twins have been sitting on a cash cow for years, stockpiling cash from their subsidized stadium. They are now good enough where it makes sense to spend some money. The playoffs are in reach. Shields, Norris, and Kimbrel or Benoit could be difference makers. And the Twins have more prospects than they have room on the field for. A motivated trading partner, eager to shed salary at the very positions we're welling to spend to improve, might be just the ticket. Their GM is if nothing else a bold trader (that's how they got into this mess). Why not?

     

    The post above says they need a shortstop. Maybe Polanco? Or sell high on Escobar?

     

    They could use a third baseman, and the Twins are itching to move Plouffe to open a slot for Sano.

     

    The Twins have a ton of young outfielders. I'd start with Rosario. On the one hand, he's a proven performer, not just a prospect. On the other hand, his plate discipline and walk rate are low, so we may be seeing his ceiling. I like him, but I'm more intrigued by Kepler and Buxton.

     

    If they are excited about Arcia or Vargas, those guys are going to have a hard time finding playing time, especially now that they have park. Clear the logjam.

     

    I know that won't do it, and we'll have to part with some people it hurts to lose, too. But you don't have to give as much talent if you're also offering salary relief. Kimbrel and Shields may be worth their salaries, barely, but the odds are they're not. So we're not talking a huge dip into our talent pool unless they pick up some salary.

     

    I would hope the Twins would pay all the salary and keep the best prospects. They can afford it. That stadium cost them almost nothing, once you add up that they are paying their small portion of the stadium costs from the naming rights -- meaning they are paying almost nothing at all!  (Why did we give them naming rights???)  But the deal was, we give you a ton of money, and you give us a good team. So do it.  And build it with money, not by mortgaging the future and trading away young talent for old.  We've waited long enough.  Shell out the money, take their overpriced stars off their hands, and win now!

    Gleeman writes some interesting words on Plouffe. 

     

    My own thoughts, again: the Twins are at a diosadvantage if it seems they HAVE to trade Plouffe. You can keep his bat in the lineup, but do you play him or Sano in the outfield. Where does that put Hicks eventually (fourth outfielder?). Or Hicks is tradebait. Of course, are we sure Rosario is the outfielder we want out there for the next 3-5 years? We also have Kepler and probably Walker coming up, and Arcia needing sometime to see if you can increase his trade value (or cause a decision to be made to keep him fulltime). Is Plouffe expensive at $8 milliuon in 2016 and potentially $11 million in 2017? Would you sign him for three years and $30 million (with an option) and would that make him more or less tradable? Come 2018, he might be a bargain at $10 million a year. But do you see him becoming a regualr fixture in any outfield once his days at third disappear (shades of Michael Cuddyer).

     

    If the Twins sign the Korean guy, they suddenly have players that have no room on the ark. Arcia, Vargas and perhaps Plouffe. They also would have to make decisions on Kepler and Walker...better to trade or keep. Throw Hicks in the mix. Six guys, in which half of them DON'T need to be around next season (assuming you sign the first base guy). And we are still stuck with Mauer, who can't catch...sigh!

     

    Maybe Arcia instead? I'd rather keep a switch hitting masher as a bench bat/DH/1B type over Arcia and his inability to play in the OF when we have about 4 quality OFs either on the roster or knocking on the door.

    Not a chance I keep Vargas a 1B/DH over Arcia OF/DH. Arcia is a year younger and has already had a 20 homer season.

    The Twins are gonna have major problems this offseason...

    position players that are for sure gonna be on 25: Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Sano, Park, Suzuki, Rosario, Hicks, Plouffe... Bench Back up catcher then 3 question marks.. Will need 1IF 1OF and 1 bench bat Choosing 3 of these names: Santana, Nunez, Arcia, Vargas, Pinto.. I'd probably Take Nunez, Arcia and Vargas to start the year but maybe would go Santana over Vargas to be IF/OF help with speed.... This Spring training is gonna be HUGE for Those 5.

    I would prefer they deal Plouffe for a quality catcher this offseason. If they need to throw in a prospect like Polanco to get it done, so be it. But I will not be happy if Plouffe is traded for bullpen parts or another #3 starter. 

     

    Interesting thread. I still see no rush to move Plouffe. All it would take is another 60 day DL stint by one Joe Mauer and we'd be short a bat. Having said that, if Park pans out then that would lessen the blow.

     

    The rush is that he's gone after next year.  His ideal value is right now, any decision after this offseason and you're slashing his value.

     

    The rush is that he's gone after next year.  His ideal value is right now, any decision after this offseason and you're slashing his value.

    Not sure if this what you meant, but Plouffe is gone after two more years (eligible for FA following the 2017 season).

     

    I'm not sure his value is that much more now that it will be next winter.  (Of course, I don't think his value is as high as some folks here do, owing largely to demand.)

    Edited by spycake



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