The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2019: Part 2 (11-15)

Sano is very tough to project. I also think he is more likely than others on the list to find himself in trouble off the field which will impact his play or his status to play on the field.

I tried to understand the idea behind this list, but failed. It's not current value, future value, trade value, 2019 projection . . . seems more like a symptom of a slow-to-date off-season.

Opinion, I guess, based on the fact that Cruz has averaged 40+ HR and been extremely durable the last 5 years while Sano has never hit more than 28 and never played 120 games in an MLB season. Fwiw, FanGraphs projects Cruz to hit 37 next year and Sano to hit 29 (which seems generous to me based on his broken plate approach and injury history). 

 

 

Are you aware of how good he was this year upon returning? His numbers across the board were on par with the game's best relievers. In what way is he overrated? 

Until he dies, members are going to want him to go back to being a starter. He hasn't started in The Show since 2015. I watched every game in September. He pitched himself back into the mix, but no more than that. If the numbers show he is on par with the best relievers, look for different numbers. Off the top of my head, look at inherited runners.

I would only add that it really isn’t the relievers themselves or their ability that is volatile year to year. The inherit sample of any reliever is too small to be reliable and it is the variablility of a small sample that drives the perception of volatility.

This is important in our perception of Addison Reed. We see last year’s number and assume a drop off in skill but that may not be the case. We might have been seeing the 10th percentile results of a reliever his skill level.

It's a combination of all those things, weighted in my own (admittedly vague and subjective) manner. When you come to terms with the fact that these rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and established performance (the idea for me is akin to stocks going up and down) the methodology should become easier to understand. Maybe not. 

 

Also, I did these same rankings last year so I dunno why people keep acting like it's a random idea that materialized solely due to the circumstances of this offseason. The objective is taking stock of what's currently on hand and how it figures into the plan going forward. And to try and chart the movement that takes place from year-to-year.

 

 

People want him to be a starter because he's never really gotten a full shot and has four quality pitches. He came back from TJ surgery throwing 94 MPH with his fastball and inducing a 15% swinging strike rate, which would rank top-15 among qualified MLB relievers. When used as an actual reliever (so, subtracting the one outing as "opener") he had a 1.85 ERA and 2.23 xFIP

 

When you say, "If numbers make him seem good then look at other numbers," then cite a relatively arbitrary one like IR%, it makes it sound like you're the one with the agenda, not everyone else. 

My issue with May is in his 5 seasons as a Twin he has averaged a whopping 46 IP per season. Bottom line is he can't be counted on. Not to mention his almost 5 ERA  when he has pitched.

May shouldn't even be Top 20 in our assets let alone #11.

Um, Cruz is a MUCH better bet to reach 20 or 40 home runs in either of the next two years than Sano at this point. That's not even debatable. And then Sano has one year of control remaining after that.

 

Sano's age obviously does work in his favor but his trend line has been moving consistently downward for some time and he has established a new floor.

Sorry, that's not what I meant to debate. Your Sano ranking is fine with me.

I was debating your conclusion that 40 HR hitters aren't in demand anymore, which you pointed to Cruz's relatively conservative contract to come to. That contract is weighted by the risk that, at his age, any day now could be the day he stops hitting. If you could guarantee a team 40 HR and an .860 OPS, he'd have gotten a much bigger contract.

IF Sano becomes the hitter he's capable of, IF (and I have as many doubts as you), he'll have plenty of value. He was worth 2.3 bWAR in half a season his rookie year.

I have no problem with putting Sano at #14; but next year at this time, if he gets himself healthy, happy and hitworthy (if it hasn't been coined, I'll take it) he could move to #3 or #4, but that is only if he becomes Nelson Cruz Junior. On the other hand even if he is healthy and isn't "transformed," he could also become Joey Gallo Junior, and for a team like the Twins, the Joey Gallo's of the world don't have much value.

 "I'm evaluating based on their value to the franchise's current path and vision."

This is in Nick's second post I believe. With that in mind is why Sano should  not be ranked behind #'s 11-13. I understand that other players will have passed him in value due to his awful 2018 and poor end of 2017. But at the same time that awful season actually makes clear and magnifies his value to this franchise. I don't think anyone can deny the importance of him rebounding and making it. Our FO even told us how important it was for Sano and Buxton to rebound after the season ended in defining how this club moves forward in the future.

I personally would have Sano at about #6 presently. I believe the Cruz signing, who I rank ahead of Sano in importance, will play a huge role in 2019.

Haha, whew. A couple nuggets of food for thought before I go to bed and wake up to a hell storm.

 

Since appearing in the 2017 All Star Game, Miguel Sano has:

 

* Hit .210/.291/.370 in 437 plate appearances

* Played in 103 of a possible 236 games for the Twins

* Struck out at a 38% rate, with only 9% walks

* Suffered two serious injuries to the same leg, each lingering into the offseason

* Been optioned straight to Single-A

 

Because these are annually updated rankings, I'm attempting to heavily factor recent track record into the equation. You can argue I'm going too far with that here, and you might be right. But in the last 17 months Sano's stock has been on a steady downward plane. 

Being optioned "straight" to Single A isn't really a fair statement.  He wasn't sent there because AAA or AA were too much for him.  They wanted him to be near the extensive workout facilities that Fort Myers has available. 

I am optimistic about Sano with a full offseason.  As a prospect he was praised for his work ethic, he should rebound just fine as long as the leg holds up.

2019 success hinges more on Sano than any other player besides maybe Buxton.  An injured or ineffective Garver would not derail our season like another bad season from Sano would.

It's a combination of all those things, weighted in my own (admittedly vague and subjective) manner. When you come to terms with the fact that these rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and established performance (the idea for me is akin to stocks going up and down) the methodology should become easier to understand. Maybe not. 

 

Also, I did these same rankings last year so I dunno why people keep acting like it's a random idea that materialized solely due to the circumstances of this offseason. The objective is taking stock of what's currently on hand and how it figures into the plan going forward. And to try and chart the movement that takes place from year-to-year.

 

 

People want him to be a starter because he's never really gotten a full shot and has four quality pitches. He came back from TJ surgery throwing 94 MPH with his fastball and inducing a 15% swinging strike rate, which would rank top-15 among qualified MLB relievers. When used as an actual reliever (so, subtracting the one outing as "opener") he had a 1.85 ERA and 2.23 xFIP

 

When you say, "If numbers make him seem good then look at other numbers," then cite a relatively arbitrary one like IR%, it makes it sound like you're the one with the agenda, not everyone else. 

We have members who want him to close. For a closer, IR is not an arbitrary number. If the Twins could get starting pitching trade value for May, he would be gone in a heartbeat. My agenda is Pro-Twins. 

Well, if we extend the sample, he has held opponents to a .229/.296/.398 line with a 32% K-rate (12.1 K/9) in 100 career relief innings. You don't just fluke your way into a 15% swinging strike rate against MLB hitters. The guy's stuff is unbelievable out of the pen, and – to me at least – it's quite evident from watching him.

 

It absolutely baffles me that someone can say they watched him throughout September and he merely "worked his way back into the mix."

 

 

That's not exactly a fair way to look at it, given he was mostly a reliever before the missed time. May ranked second on the team in appearances between 2015/16. He never missed time in the minors.

 

This notion that Trevor May isn't durable is just so weird to me. Undergoing TJ surgery doesn't make you injury-prone, it makes you a typical major-league pitcher.

He was on the DL 4 times in 2015 and 2016. In an interview, he mentioned a chronic back issue, which also bothered him in the minors. 

I didn't read the original comment as meaning AA or AAA were too much for him. I read it as, there were/are obvious issues with Sano that required drastic action. In this case, getting him close to Fort Myers to control his diet and workouts (as well as try to rebuild his swing -- his issues go beyond conditioning). Still doesn't bode well for Sano's current state.

 

I hope you're right about him rebounding, of course.

I believe whatever issues he had with his swing are also connected to his conditioning.  It easy to see how someone's hard hit% and exit velocity decrease when he loses leg strength recovering from injury.  He was "immobilized"  last offseason according to the Front Office, I take that to mean he did not spend much if any time in a batting cage.

I find it kind of crazy how much fans have piled on to this injury.  You hear so many times that he is now a failed prospect and the Twins need to move on etc.  By the comments you wouldn't know that this time last year he was an all star 3rd baseman and a fan favorite.