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    Should Twins Usher Youth Movement In Rotation?

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    Since taking over Minnesota Twins baseball operations, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shown a propensity for following the blueprint laid out by the forward-thinking Astros front office – most recently with their draft strategy last month.

    It's not a bad idea, given the fruits we are now seeing from Houston's lengthy rebuild. Now, as the Twins find themselves on the precipice of contention, it might be time to adopt another philosophy that has aided the Astros in their rise:

    Trusting young arms.

    Image courtesy of Steven Branscombe, USA Today (Felix Jorge)

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    In 2015, when the Astros emphatically returned to relevance by adding 16 wins from the previous season and making the playoffs, Lance McCullers played a key role. Just 21 years old, the top prospect was promoted to the majors with only 29 innings of experience at Double-A, and none at Triple-A. He caught on quickly and delivered a 3.22 ERA over 125 innings in 22 starts.

    Some would see it as reckless rushing of a starter who was still only a couple years removed from high school, but the bold move worked out well and McCullers continues to be a key component in Houston's league-leading formula.

    He's hardly the only example of a young and inexperienced hurler being given an extended chance for the club.

    That same year, Vince Velasquez (23) made 19 appearances, despite minimal time spent above Single-A. In 2016, Joe Musgrove (23) got the call after a short stint at Triple-A, and threw 62 quality innings. This year, Francis Martes (21) is getting an extended look in the rotation, and so was David Paulino (23) before he was hit with an 80-game PED suspension on Saturday.

    None of these pitchers followed a conventional development path, but are such paradigms entirely useful anymore? Modern organizations are shifting away from requiring extensive polish, and instead opting to get high-caliber youthful arms up more quickly, perhaps owing to the seeming inevitability of elbow or shoulder problems somewhere along the way.

    Should the Twins follow the wave and usher a youth movement in their own rotation?

    That would mean promoting one, or both, of the system's top two pitching prospects, both currently thriving at Double-A.

    Felix Jorge paved the way on Saturday, when he jumped straight from Chattanooga to Minnesota and delivered a solid outing, settling in after a two-run homer in the first to complete five innings of three-run ball. The 23-year-old wasn't blowing people away, but he worked efficiently and threw strikes, something that veterans Hector Santiago and Kyle Gibson have continually struggled to do.

    In a loaded Lookouts rotation, Jorge might have been the most polished but he certainly wasn't the best, nor capable of the greatest impact. Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves are premium prospects capable of meaningfully altering Minnesota's fortunes. Both are making very strong cases to follow in Jorge's footsteps.

    Following a slow start to the season, Romero has been rattling off one excellent outing after another, and appeared to have one cooking in his latest turn on Saturday, with two shutout innings before rain ended the game. He has a 1.11 ERA over his past seven starts and his stuff would certainly play in the big leagues right now, though control remains a question.

    Gonsalves has been consistently brilliant all year and, dating back to the second half in 2016, now owns a 13-4 record and 2.17 ERA in 22 starts at Double-A. He has a 30-to-3 K/BB ratio over his past four turns.

    Neither Romero nor Gonsalves is on the level of McCullers as a prospect, but if either (or both) could come up and have even a Musgrove-level impact? It would dramatically shift the team's outlook, suddenly making them look like a legit threat to at least keep things interesting through September.

    And even if you're not a believer that the Twins are quite where they need to be for a postseason push, they certainly benefit more from working up-close with two planned future rotation staples, rather than going through the same tired act each fifth day with Gibson and Santiago, who are in all likelihood out after this year.

    It might feel like a fast bump for these electric youngsters, but in today's game, is it really?

    The only serious hold-up that I can see with this plan relates to workload management, but the Astros found ways to work around this when they called McCullers up as a rookie, keeping him available into October while still limiting him to 150 total innings on the season.

    What say you? Are you ready to see the top Twins pitching prospects on the big stage or is it still too soon?

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Featured Comments

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    No one can conclude with certainty which factors contributed most to Berrios's success in 2017, but something leads me to believe his excellence in the minors did more for him than his 2016 failings with the big club in terms of his current success. 

     

    My questions regarding Romero, Gonsalves, and Jorge are:

     

    1. If brought up, can they both produce acceptably (under enormous pressure) and continue to optimally develop at the same or maybe at an accelerated pace?

     

    2. If not, would moving them to AAA enhance their development and/or speed it up, or are they better off where they are until they reach certain standards regarding their sub-optimal skills?

     

    These guys aren't ink on a spreadsheet that can so easily be moved around free of other consequences. Maybe having them settled in, under living arrangements that are in place, with teammates and coaches that are familiar, on a hugely successful team, playing against AA talent that might arguably be higher-ceiling talent than what's at AAA but rawer...makes more sense than bumping them up to Rochester, NY, I don't know.

    Edited by birdwatcher
    Darius

    Darius 2,741

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    When you consider that the veterans they keep running out (guys like Hughes, Santiago, etc) are about as bad as you can get at any professional level, there is absolutely zero downside to letting the kids pitch and work through some struggles.

    Nick Nelson

    Nick Nelson 15,778

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    If I recall, weren't people saying last year that Berrios was tipping his pitches? With his stuff, just clearing that problem up corrects a multitude of issues, I'd expect.

    Would they have discovered he was tipping his pitches, and subsequently addressed it, if not for big-league hitters exploiting the issue?

    mazeville

    mazeville 1,447

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Sorry, but that's a terrible take and it's never going to or should happen.  

     

    Yes...last year was about as bad is could possibly get, but if you look at the last 2.5 seasons the team is extremely competitive.  You don't trade your ace, all star pitcher in this case.  Same with Dozier.  If they could have fleeced somebody last year at his high point, fine.  But the central division is weak and isn't going to get much stronger anytime soon.

     

    Cleveland may eventually separate themselves this year, but I dont see it...Chicago is treading water on a downtrend/rebuild, the Royals don't scare anybody and while better of late, are also trending down and the Tigers are selling this year.  There is no reason to trade Santana, since this team is also shaping up to be one of the stronger teams in the division next year as well.

     

    This team is competing and winning, even with a mostly terrible pitching staff.  I think Gibson has bought himself some time....I'd love to see Santiago DFA'd and Gonsalves or Romero slotted in.  I'd also like to see Bard and Curtiss up as well.  

     

    Santana is the anchor for a competitive team, trading him is ludicrous.

     

    You missed the part where I said "they're too close to contention to trade anyone, I guess." Because I said that. As long as they're in contention, no they probably should not trade Santana.

     

    But ... the Twins are absolutely doing things with smoke and mirrors this year and anybody who looks beyond the standings knows it. The Twins have a -54 run differential. Only two other teams in the American League have a worse run differential. Cleveland is at +58. 

     

    The Twins have a terrible bullpen. Their team ERA is better than only four other teams.

     

    OK, sure, trading the best pitcher from a team with a bad pitching staff seems a stupid idea. But this is still a rebuilding club, and they should rebuild. Ervin is not getting any younger, and his value is at his peak. 

     

    And just because you trade Santana and Dozier doesn't mean you don't expect to contend next year, either. You just get more assets to make trades and do other things to bolster the pitching staff for the next several years. 

    jimbo92107

    jimbo92107 8,175

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Felix Jorge should replace Santiago right now. One performance was all I needed to see a pronounced difference in quality. Jorge's game is simply much better than Santiago's. 

     

    Seth has a reasonable approach for Gonsalves and Romero - bump them up to AAA while we see if Gibson and Mejia continue to perform well. If one or both falters again, I would not hesitate to bring up Gonsalves, and then Romero. 

     

    Bert Mejia does not concern me much. He seems to be gradually improving at the big league level, getting better at finding his spots and changing speeds.

     

    Kyle Gibson is more of a concern because he has been inconsistent in his approach. Gibson simply MUST pitch inside. He MUST change speeds. He MUST find a better mix of pitches. He MUST NOT nibble. He wins when he attacks the zone and keeps hitters off balance. 

    jsteve96

    jsteve96 319

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Given the inconsistency of Mejia and Gibson, and the consistent, but dreadful, work of Santiago lately, I'm all for it.

     

    Mejia has had 1 bad start. if you take out the seattle disaster he has a 2.70 ERA since coming back up to the MLB. I can get over one bad start from a 24 year old. Gibson and Santiago on the other hand need to be gone..

    Craig Arko

    Craig Arko 17,367

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Would they have discovered he was tipping his pitches, and subsequently addressed it, if not for big-league hitters exploiting the issue?

    If I understand what you said, I figure that they didn't discover it until after his promotion, no. This argues in favor of earlier promotion in some cases.

     

    Again, assuming I was able to parse your sentence correctly. :)

    Tom Froemming

    Tom Froemming 10,492

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

    There are also issues with service time, no? The sooner you start a guy's "clock" the sooner they're going to get expensive through arbitration and the sooner they'll have the opportunity to leave via free agency.

     

    And there's always the risk anytime you put a young pitcher on the 25-man roster that he's going to get hurt, then soak up valuable service time while on the DL. It's not likely to happen, and worrying about stuff like this borders on paranoia, but the Twins would look pretty foolish if they called Jorge back up, he blew out his elbow and accrued a year of MLB service time while rehabbing.

     

    Again, that's being incredibly risk-averse, but I'm sure MLB teams take stuff like that into account.

    Han Joelo

    Han Joelo 3,059

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Run differential in ten worst losses:

     

    Twins    -96

    Royals  -79

    Indians -60

     

    Range of worst diff

     

    Twins       7 to 11

    Royals     5 to 11

    Indians    4 to 9

     

    Mode

     

    Twins    11 (4 times they've lost by this much, plus another time by 10. And twice by 9.  When they lose big, they lose really big.)

    Royals   6   (they've lost by 11 twice, then 9 twice)

    Indians  4   (out of their ten worst losses, they only lost by 4 three times, 5 once, and 6 twice.  And 7 twice.  In other words, they keep it close.)

     

    What does this mean, no pun intended?  Besides the fact it reveals that my statistical analysis skills are roughly on par with the Twins prior to Jack Goins?  I don't know, but if I was a Twins pitcher anywhere from Chattanooga to Minneapolis, I wouldn't be signing a long-term lease.

    drjim

    drjim 7,100

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    There are also issues with service time, no? The sooner you start a guy's "clock" the sooner they're going to get expensive through arbitration and the sooner they'll have the opportunity to leave via free agency.

     

    And there's always the risk anytime you put a young pitcher on the 25-man roster that he's going to get hurt, then soak up valuable service time while on the DL. It's not likely to happen, and worrying about stuff like this borders on paranoia, but the Twins would look pretty foolish if they called Jorge back up, he blew out his elbow and accrued a year of MLB service time while rehabbing.

     

    Again, that's being incredibly risk-averse, but I'm sure MLB teams take stuff like that into account.

     

    There are many reasons not to call up any of the 3 prospects, but I would hope service time isn't even a small consideration at this point. If they are ready and the best option they should be up. (I doubt #1 is true and I'm highly skeptical #2 is either).

    Guest

    Guest

  • Guests

    • Posted

    They have alternatives, just as the Twins do: claim AAAA arms like Adam Wilk, Chris Heston and Dillon Gee off waivers. Would you rather watch those guys start games, or watch your top prospects learn and develop under your big-league staff? That's the question here. I'm not necessarily saying Houston's approach is correct but given the immense success their franchise is experiencing I'm inclined to give it some cred.

     

    Before Houston brought up young pitchers, the first thing Houston did was fix its big league staff. Falvey had little chance to do so in 2017. Once the staff is resolved, then let's see the future. It's important to get the order right.

    Obsvr

    Obsvr 263

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    You missed the part where I said "they're too close to contention to trade anyone, I guess." Because I said that. As long as they're in contention, no they probably should not trade Santana.

     

    But ... the Twins are absolutely doing things with smoke and mirrors this year and anybody who looks beyond the standings knows it. The Twins have a -54 run differential. Only two other teams in the American League have a worse run differential. Cleveland is at +58. 

     

    The Twins have a terrible bullpen. Their team ERA is better than only four other teams.

     

    OK, sure, trading the best pitcher from a team with a bad pitching staff seems a stupid idea. But this is still a rebuilding club, and they should rebuild. Ervin is not getting any younger, and his value is at his peak. 

     

    And just because you trade Santana and Dozier doesn't mean you don't expect to contend next year, either. You just get more assets to make trades and do other things to bolster the pitching staff for the next several years. 

     

    My point is that 2 of the last 3 years they are or have been a contending team.  You don't trade two of your anchors during the season.  

     

    I would argue that offense, good defense and decent enough starting pitching isn't smoke and mirrors.  Quite frankly, the top end of the rotation has been good (enough)...the top end of the relief corps has been good (enough).

     

    I'd argue that this team isn't rebuilding.  It's mostly built.  Almost every team has issues with their 3,4,5,6 and 7 starters and bullpen and the twins are no different, which is why they are in contention in weaker division. 

     

    Do they need to find more stability on the staff?  Of course.  Hopefully they will start bringing up some pitchers (both starters and relievers) for a look.

     

     

    bluechipper

    bluechipper 2,433

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Gibson has earned himself a long leash with his solid outings since the recall. I have to believe Santiago is out of the rotation, probably to the DL, with 1 more bad outing.

     

    Give Felix Jorge that spot, promote Gonsalves and Romero to AAA would be my plan.

    Shaitan

    Shaitan 2,817

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I was being sarcastic earlier and it's impossible to know what Berrios learned in MLB in 2016 vs in AAA in 2017 vs maturity or fortitude or whatever you want to call it.

     

    I think it makes sense to try young arms in a "nothing to lose" sense when you're at the bottom of the division (see 2016), but the scenario right now is just too different. Generally speaking, I'd be hesitant to do a straight AA to MLB promotion on anyone with less than half a season at AA.

    mazeville

    mazeville 1,447

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

     

    I would argue that offense, good defense and decent enough starting pitching isn't smoke and mirrors.  Quite frankly, the top end of the rotation has been good (enough)...the top end of the relief corps has been good (enough).

     

     

    Decent enough starting pitching? Their starting pitching as a whole has been garbage outside of Santana and Berrios. 

     

    Also, this team might have contended two of the past three years but it lost 103 games last year and has a really low run differential. And that differential suggests the Twins will ultimately fall out of contention. 

     

    Again if not, great. Don't trade Santana. But the worst case scenario here is the Twins stay in contention through early August, then stumble badly while Santana loses his value ... 

    LaBombo

    LaBombo 14,541

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    My point is that 2 of the last 3 years they are or have been a contending team.  You don't trade two of your anchors during the season.  

     

    I would argue that offense, good defense and decent enough starting pitching isn't smoke and mirrors.  Quite frankly, the top end of the rotation has been good (enough)...the top end of the relief corps has been good (enough).

     

    I'd argue that this team isn't rebuilding.  It's mostly built.  Almost every team has issues with their 3,4,5,6 and 7 starters and bullpen and the twins are no different, which is why they are in contention in weaker division. 

     

    Do they need to find more stability on the staff?  Of course.  Hopefully they will start bringing up some pitchers (both starters and relievers) for a look.

     

    The Twins were one of the three worst teams in baseball last year, and one of the worst to be fielded by the organization in its post-Senators history. They were outscored by their opponents the season before that. That doesn't sound like much momentum to base the preservation of a contending roster on.

     

    The phrase "has issues" seems to fall a bit short of describing the struggles of a bullpen that ranks 2nd-worst in the AL in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and WAR, with a league low strikeout rate thrown in for good measure.

     

    With Santana pitching down to the level of his peripherals for the past month, the rotation, which also ranks near the bottom of the AL, has only one starter in whom the team should have any real confidence to have a strong second half.

     

    And while it's been extremely fun to watch the Twins play competitive baseball this season, they've been massively outscored again by their opponents, and play in a division currently led by the defending league champs.

     

    Like you, I'm hoping the Twins bring up some of their younger pitchers if they're ready. But if they contribute enough to help push the Twins toward legitimate contender status, it'll just be a nice bonus as far as I'm concerned.

    Monkeypaws

    Monkeypaws 3,358

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Not sure about the rotation, but why the heck not the bullpen? The Twins never used to be shy about getting their guys in those 5th starter - relief spots: Perkins, Duensing, Swarzak, Manship, Robertson, Burnett, Crain, Mijares, etc. 

     

    Most those guys debuted 23-24 ish, and some went on to fine careers. Bard should be up, and Curtiss too. 

     

    Two of the better guys in the pen currently also follow that pattern, in Duffey and Rogers.

     

    Going to the scrapheap for retreads works once in a while, Kintzler, Burton, Fien, but I would give priority to the guys drafted and developed here. 

     

    All the more so for spot starts: more Felix, less Tepesch.

    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Nick made an important point when he mentioned that Gonsalves isn't on the 40-man, thus, it makes no sense to call him up prior to September when burning an option wouldn't come into play.

     

    To call him up in September he needs to be on the 40-man before September, thus burning an option.

    LaBombo

    LaBombo 14,541

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Well...Santiago to the DL...

     

    Curious to see who they go with.  Probably Gee but I sure hope not.

     

    At this point it's almost a relief to see him be put on the shelf, because if what we'd been seeing had been Santiago physically at the top of his game... bummer.

     

    I'm hoping for 'anyone but Gee' to get the call as well. But even he would be a major upgrade over Santiago if he can just reproduce his 2016 mediocrity.

    Edited by LaBombo
    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Well...Santiago to the DL...

     

    Curious to see who they go with.  Probably Gee but I sure hope not.

     

    Slegers started for Rochester when Santiago did, then Turley yesterday so he is out.  Gee is slated to start today, so it is wait and see if he makes the start.  Gonsalves started when Santiago did for the Lookouts, with Romero the day before. No announced starter yet for the Lookouts.  If Gee starts today, he is not it, and looks like Romero might be it with an extra day rest.  Or Jorge with an extra day rest.  Who starts the AAA game tonight will be telling...

    Obsvr

    Obsvr 263

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I'm guessing that they would probably rather not make a 40 man move if they dont have to, so my guess is it wont be Gonsalves.  Even though it lines up well for him.  I don't think Gee has pitched in since he was DFA'd, so I dont think it would be him either.  Jorge or Romero seem to be the most logical...fingers crossed.

    drjim

    drjim 7,100

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    I'm guessing that they would probably rather not make a 40 man move if they dont have to, so my guess is it wont be Gonsalves.  Even though it lines up well for him.  I don't think Gee has pitched in since he was DFA'd, so I dont think it would be him either.  Jorge or Romero seem to be the most logical...fingers crossed.

     

    Gonsalves has to be protected on the 40 man this offseason, so they might call him up in September if they are out of it. Won't make a difference in offseason roster management. But I do agree with others that they won't want to burn an option with him unless they get desperate.

    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Well Gee made the start for Rochester so that's a sigh of relief. 

     

    Not that fast.  It would have been a bullpen day today for Santiago. 

     

    8 pitches so far.  If he gets yanked unreasonably early, he might still start

    Edited by Thrylos
    youngtwinsfan

    youngtwinsfan 61

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Not that fast.  It would have been a bullpen day today for Santiago. 

     

    8 pitches so far.  If he gets yanked unreasonably early, he might still start

    With them having a double header today I'd be shocked if they elected for a bullpen type game. But I have seen crazier things happen.

    twinssouth

    twinssouth 471

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Good. Bring up Gonsalves. He's ready. In his last 2 starts alone, well over 60% of his pitches were strikes. He's going into the 7th inning consistently on a decent pitch count. He's using all his pitches. Striking batters out. Great command. What more do you want. Replace lefty with lefty. Come on FO, do it.



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