Should Twins Usher Youth Movement In Rotation?

No one can conclude with certainty which factors contributed most to Berrios's success in 2017, but something leads me to believe his excellence in the minors did more for him than his 2016 failings with the big club in terms of his current success. 

My questions regarding Romero, Gonsalves, and Jorge are:

1. If brought up, can they both produce acceptably (under enormous pressure) and continue to optimally develop at the same or maybe at an accelerated pace?

2. If not, would moving them to AAA enhance their development and/or speed it up, or are they better off where they are until they reach certain standards regarding their sub-optimal skills?

These guys aren't ink on a spreadsheet that can so easily be moved around free of other consequences. Maybe having them settled in, under living arrangements that are in place, with teammates and coaches that are familiar, on a hugely successful team, playing against AA talent that might arguably be higher-ceiling talent than what's at AAA but rawer...makes more sense than bumping them up to Rochester, NY, I don't know.

When you consider that the veterans they keep running out (guys like Hughes, Santiago, etc) are about as bad as you can get at any professional level, there is absolutely zero downside to letting the kids pitch and work through some struggles.

Sorry, but that's a terrible take and it's never going to or should happen.  

 

Yes...last year was about as bad is could possibly get, but if you look at the last 2.5 seasons the team is extremely competitive.  You don't trade your ace, all star pitcher in this case.  Same with Dozier.  If they could have fleeced somebody last year at his high point, fine.  But the central division is weak and isn't going to get much stronger anytime soon.

 

Cleveland may eventually separate themselves this year, but I dont see it...Chicago is treading water on a downtrend/rebuild, the Royals don't scare anybody and while better of late, are also trending down and the Tigers are selling this year.  There is no reason to trade Santana, since this team is also shaping up to be one of the stronger teams in the division next year as well.

 

This team is competing and winning, even with a mostly terrible pitching staff.  I think Gibson has bought himself some time....I'd love to see Santiago DFA'd and Gonsalves or Romero slotted in.  I'd also like to see Bard and Curtiss up as well.  

 

Santana is the anchor for a competitive team, trading him is ludicrous.

You missed the part where I said "they're too close to contention to trade anyone, I guess." Because I said that. As long as they're in contention, no they probably should not trade Santana.

But ... the Twins are absolutely doing things with smoke and mirrors this year and anybody who looks beyond the standings knows it. The Twins have a -54 run differential. Only two other teams in the American League have a worse run differential. Cleveland is at +58. 

The Twins have a terrible bullpen. Their team ERA is better than only four other teams.

OK, sure, trading the best pitcher from a team with a bad pitching staff seems a stupid idea. But this is still a rebuilding club, and they should rebuild. Ervin is not getting any younger, and his value is at his peak. 

And just because you trade Santana and Dozier doesn't mean you don't expect to contend next year, either. You just get more assets to make trades and do other things to bolster the pitching staff for the next several years. 

Felix Jorge should replace Santiago right now. One performance was all I needed to see a pronounced difference in quality. Jorge's game is simply much better than Santiago's. 

Seth has a reasonable approach for Gonsalves and Romero - bump them up to AAA while we see if Gibson and Mejia continue to perform well. If one or both falters again, I would not hesitate to bring up Gonsalves, and then Romero. 

Bert Mejia does not concern me much. He seems to be gradually improving at the big league level, getting better at finding his spots and changing speeds.

Kyle Gibson is more of a concern because he has been inconsistent in his approach. Gibson simply MUST pitch inside. He MUST change speeds. He MUST find a better mix of pitches. He MUST NOT nibble. He wins when he attacks the zone and keeps hitters off balance. 

I don't believe Berrios's problem was tipping his pitches. That was a theory that was never substantiated. He's improved his command compared to last year.

Run differential in ten worst losses:

Twins    -96

Royals  -79

Indians -60

Range of worst diff

Twins       7 to 11

Royals     5 to 11

Indians    4 to 9

Mode

Twins    11 (4 times they've lost by this much, plus another time by 10. And twice by 9.  When they lose big, they lose really big.)

Royals   6   (they've lost by 11 twice, then 9 twice)

Indians  4   (out of their ten worst losses, they only lost by 4 three times, 5 once, and 6 twice.  And 7 twice.  In other words, they keep it close.)

What does this mean, no pun intended?  Besides the fact it reveals that my statistical analysis skills are roughly on par with the Twins prior to Jack Goins?  I don't know, but if I was a Twins pitcher anywhere from Chattanooga to Minneapolis, I wouldn't be signing a long-term lease.

You missed the part where I said "they're too close to contention to trade anyone, I guess." Because I said that. As long as they're in contention, no they probably should not trade Santana.

 

But ... the Twins are absolutely doing things with smoke and mirrors this year and anybody who looks beyond the standings knows it. The Twins have a -54 run differential. Only two other teams in the American League have a worse run differential. Cleveland is at +58. 

 

The Twins have a terrible bullpen. Their team ERA is better than only four other teams.

 

OK, sure, trading the best pitcher from a team with a bad pitching staff seems a stupid idea. But this is still a rebuilding club, and they should rebuild. Ervin is not getting any younger, and his value is at his peak. 

 

And just because you trade Santana and Dozier doesn't mean you don't expect to contend next year, either. You just get more assets to make trades and do other things to bolster the pitching staff for the next several years. 

My point is that 2 of the last 3 years they are or have been a contending team.  You don't trade two of your anchors during the season.  

I would argue that offense, good defense and decent enough starting pitching isn't smoke and mirrors.  Quite frankly, the top end of the rotation has been good (enough)...the top end of the relief corps has been good (enough).

I'd argue that this team isn't rebuilding.  It's mostly built.  Almost every team has issues with their 3,4,5,6 and 7 starters and bullpen and the twins are no different, which is why they are in contention in weaker division. 

Do they need to find more stability on the staff?  Of course.  Hopefully they will start bringing up some pitchers (both starters and relievers) for a look.

I was being sarcastic earlier and it's impossible to know what Berrios learned in MLB in 2016 vs in AAA in 2017 vs maturity or fortitude or whatever you want to call it.

I think it makes sense to try young arms in a "nothing to lose" sense when you're at the bottom of the division (see 2016), but the scenario right now is just too different. Generally speaking, I'd be hesitant to do a straight AA to MLB promotion on anyone with less than half a season at AA.

 

I would argue that offense, good defense and decent enough starting pitching isn't smoke and mirrors.  Quite frankly, the top end of the rotation has been good (enough)...the top end of the relief corps has been good (enough).

 

Decent enough starting pitching? Their starting pitching as a whole has been garbage outside of Santana and Berrios. 

Also, this team might have contended two of the past three years but it lost 103 games last year and has a really low run differential. And that differential suggests the Twins will ultimately fall out of contention. 

Again if not, great. Don't trade Santana. But the worst case scenario here is the Twins stay in contention through early August, then stumble badly while Santana loses his value ... 

My point is that 2 of the last 3 years they are or have been a contending team.  You don't trade two of your anchors during the season.  

 

I would argue that offense, good defense and decent enough starting pitching isn't smoke and mirrors.  Quite frankly, the top end of the rotation has been good (enough)...the top end of the relief corps has been good (enough).

 

I'd argue that this team isn't rebuilding.  It's mostly built.  Almost every team has issues with their 3,4,5,6 and 7 starters and bullpen and the twins are no different, which is why they are in contention in weaker division. 

 

Do they need to find more stability on the staff?  Of course.  Hopefully they will start bringing up some pitchers (both starters and relievers) for a look.

The Twins were one of the three worst teams in baseball last year, and one of the worst to be fielded by the organization in its post-Senators history. They were outscored by their opponents the season before that. That doesn't sound like much momentum to base the preservation of a contending roster on.

The phrase "has issues" seems to fall a bit short of describing the struggles of a bullpen that ranks 2nd-worst in the AL in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and WAR, with a league low strikeout rate thrown in for good measure.

With Santana pitching down to the level of his peripherals for the past month, the rotation, which also ranks near the bottom of the AL, has only one starter in whom the team should have any real confidence to have a strong second half.

And while it's been extremely fun to watch the Twins play competitive baseball this season, they've been massively outscored again by their opponents, and play in a division currently led by the defending league champs.

Like you, I'm hoping the Twins bring up some of their younger pitchers if they're ready. But if they contribute enough to help push the Twins toward legitimate contender status, it'll just be a nice bonus as far as I'm concerned.

Not sure about the rotation, but why the heck not the bullpen? The Twins never used to be shy about getting their guys in those 5th starter - relief spots: Perkins, Duensing, Swarzak, Manship, Robertson, Burnett, Crain, Mijares, etc. 

Most those guys debuted 23-24 ish, and some went on to fine careers. Bard should be up, and Curtiss too. 

Two of the better guys in the pen currently also follow that pattern, in Duffey and Rogers.

Going to the scrapheap for retreads works once in a while, Kintzler, Burton, Fien, but I would give priority to the guys drafted and developed here. 

All the more so for spot starts: more Felix, less Tepesch.

Well...Santiago to the DL...

Curious to see who they go with.  Probably Gee but I sure hope not.

Well...Santiago to the DL...

 

Curious to see who they go with.  Probably Gee but I sure hope not.

At this point it's almost a relief to see him be put on the shelf, because if what we'd been seeing had been Santiago physically at the top of his game... bummer.

I'm hoping for 'anyone but Gee' to get the call as well. But even he would be a major upgrade over Santiago if he can just reproduce his 2016 mediocrity.

I'm guessing that they would probably rather not make a 40 man move if they dont have to, so my guess is it wont be Gonsalves.  Even though it lines up well for him.  I don't think Gee has pitched in since he was DFA'd, so I dont think it would be him either.  Jorge or Romero seem to be the most logical...fingers crossed.

Well Gee made the start for Rochester so that's a sigh of relief. 

Not that fast.  It would have been a bullpen day today for Santiago. 

 

8 pitches so far.  If he gets yanked unreasonably early, he might still start

With them having a double header today I'd be shocked if they elected for a bullpen type game. But I have seen crazier things happen.