Purchasing A Rotation, And What It Means

The list of regression vs. progression isn't favorable:

 

Regression Worse: Suzuki (significant), Santana (Possibly crazy amount here), Vargas, Escobar

 

Regression Better: Arcia, Mauer

 

I think we're a bottom half offense next year, with a mediocre bullpen, and an improved rotation.  That, however, is not the ingredients to contend.  And even if Buxton and Sano come up we should temper how quickly we declare them the missing ingredients of a top ten offense.  Rookies struggle the majority of the time and to expect differently is a bit naive.  That isn't to write off the possibility, but it seems kind of silly to always talk of forecasting in the most pollyanna sort of way.

Obviously we don't view this the same way and could debate the regression candidate business but here is what we know for sure - they scored the 5th most runs last year.  That has to mean something and to translate that into top 10 or so next year isn't "pollyanna" - it is quite reasonable.

I want to quibble a bit with this.  All of us who are Twins fans should hesitate to embrace this just because the organization has shown a strong tendency to not view these as true options.  There are default settings that prevent guys like May and Meyer from getting an equal shot at a spot.  It reminds me of an NFL coach telling the press there is a "Position Battle" at QB when everyone with a functioning brain stem knows who the starter is.  

 

The Twins have to prove to me that they will truly opt for the young kid pitching his butt off over the higher paid veteran before I'll believe it.  I want to hope that a new manager will maybe be a change in this regard, but far too often there has been deference to veterans over young players.  The only time this team has ever given jobs to young players is when they clear the path for them ala Hicks.  So yes, having depth is nice - I just hope the Twins entertain the idea that the depth in AAA is Pelfrey and Milone and not Alex Meyer.  (Should he truly earn it and be ready)

Levi - I generally agree with your point here.  I do think it is worth noting that Gibson won a rotation spot out of spring training last year.........

If we want to talk about Gibson, then 2014 isn't the example that would illustrate my point.  That would be 2013 when he was passed over in favor of the likes of Pedro Hernandez, Cole Devries, and the immortal PJ Walters.  

But wasn't he just coming of TJ?  Anyway, think of it this way, if they get passed over it won't be for Pedro Hernandez, Cole DeVries and the immortal PJ Walters.

No, it's not and I didn't mean to imply that it was.  I understand how people could disagree within reason on that.  What I don't get is why people are harping on posters who think this team is still a non-contender.  The Twins have all but acknowledged as much themselves and there are a host of valid reasons to agree with them.

I'm not harping on them because my belief is that there are all kinds of potential scenarios for next year that would fall on both sides of the ledger.  There are so many variables with this team that we can all have an opinion and hold it reasonably.

If it's Mike Pelfrey that might be in name only.  I just have a hard time sitting here and hearing people say "they'll get their shot!" when it seems like we're talking the clear runner up in the QB "battle".

 

But hey - I thoroughly hope Molly and the new staff prove me wrong.

It will be interesting to see if this dynamic does change.  We all know that Gardy was a guy that preferred veterans but I always kind of assumed TR was in the same camp.  Perhaps this isn't true and Molly will change it.

I think the regression list is reasonable.   If we got .280 out of Santana but got a few more walks out of him I would take it.    That is a 70 point regression.  Suzuki drops 30 points to his norm.   I don't think Vargas really did so much more than we expect him to and it was just for a third of the year..  I have no idea what Escobar is really capable of but lets say a drop of 20 points off set by the number of bats he gets vs Florimon and we can call it a wash.    That is only a 100 point drop from those guys.    Assume Hunter can add 40 points over Willinigham. and I would be really disappointed if Mauer and Arcia don't add 70 points between them.   Of course this is all about average and not OBP or power.    I think we tend to overrate how good other team's offenses are.   Middle of the pack seems reasonable much like the rotation and the relief corp.    Middle of the pack on everything makes .500 reasonable.    .500 isn't really that far away from  contending, though of course its not that far away from bottom  half of the division either.    I am optimistic but I always am.  What is the fun in thinking Twins will only perform to their career averages or worse and that no one will ever have a good or even a career year.    I don't know why anyone would pigeonhole Mauer as a .270 singles hitter and Arcia a wild .230 batter.     Some of these guys are going to have good years  and someone of our prospects is going to have a break out year either pitching or batting.   If not, there is always next year.   With this group that is not an epitaph.

Remember, Meyer will probably be on a limit of 150-175 innings next year. Could see starting him out of the bullpen, or a call-up. 

What will be fascinating is to see how the bullpen works out for this season. We forget that many starters become relievers (Hawkins, Guardado, Perkins). But besides Johan, how many guys start in the bullpen and move to the rotation, unless they are swing men like, say, Swarzak, or the token long-man, usually youth to get their licks.

Bringing in Santana locks up only 2 spots IMHO. Hughes and Santana are locks. No one else. This is how you want to bring up a prospect, with competition where they actually earn it. I see Meyer and May potentially shuttling back and forth from Rochester some this year which is good! We handed Hicks the job, howd that work? You never want to hand a job to someone even if they are your hope for contention.

You want it Meyer? Then take it. Finally! Were doing this thing right finally!! Spring training is gonna be interesting!

If we want to talk about Gibson, then 2014 isn't the example that would illustrate my point.  That would be 2013 when he was passed over in favor of the likes of Pedro Hernandez, Cole Devries, and the immortal PJ Walters.  

in 2013 Gibson wasn't in spring training to win a spot on the roster. . I would think that you are also forgeting that Gibson had not pitched many innings the year before, he would be on an innings limit, and that no rookie was going to come out of spring tranning with those conditions and pitching as poorly as he was. When he did get up here, he pitched enough innings to get an idea of what it takes as well as displaying he needed to get that idea by the following spring or be back in Rochester. Also, I would think most fans could remember that Cole DeVries was on the dl,  and the immortal PJ Walter pitched about as well as Gibson did

^{Nolasco had a career high BABIP.  The number of line drives, ground balls and fly balls were about the same as always. ERA tanked. Do you think maybe there was a little problem with outfield defense?}

I really cannot understand this belief that rookies should only come up if they won't struggle. Not only does it not make sense on a number of levels and completely contradict volumes of evidence to the contrary, but this very team consistently calls up hitting prospects far less "ready" all the time.

 

Young players struggle to adjust at every level of advancement but you still have to advance them to know what you have.

Did  ANYWHERE in the post I say rookies shouldn't come up if they struggle. Quite the contrary in that I stated he pitched long enough to get an idea what he needed to learn to be successful.   I am sorry I sould have used more words to explain my idea for you, for you clearly missed what I was getting at. Gibson did not pitch so well in his time up in the majors in 2013 that anyone should complain that he was held back because of AAAA pitchers and piters on the disabled list. He had time to struggle a bit to make the adjustments but not so much time to crush any confidence he had, if a 5+ ERA would ruin his belief in himself. Learning did happen as Gibson had a fine 2014. It is quite possible that the Twins brain trust handled Gibson appropriately.

Nice straw man Levi