Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base

In 2022, the following three players combined to start 156 of 162 games for the Twins at second base: Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon. One season later, all three holdovers from the previous regime are gone, as the front office embeds its own wave of talent in planning at second base. 

This position was among the defining strengths for the Twins offense in 2023, ranking second among American League teams in wOBA and fWAR, behind only the world champion Texas Rangers. Can they maintain that advantage this year?

TWINS SECOND BASEMEN AT A GLANCE

Starter: Edouard Julien
Backup: Kyle Farmer
Depth: Willi Castro, Austin Martin, Michael Helman
Prospects: Brooks Lee, Tanner Schobel, Luke Keaschall

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 3rd out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 14th out of 30

THE GOOD
Julien is legit. That much is impossible to deny after he carried over his impeccable offensive track record to the major leagues. He ranked seventh in the AL Rookie of the Year voting by slashing .263/.381/.459 in 109 games during his first go with the Twins. Unfazed by the big lights of October, the newcomer even posted a 1.043 OPS in the playoffs.

Regression always has to be considered a factor for sophomore big-leaguers coming off monster partial rookie seasons – especially one who rose out of relative obscurity like Julien. But it's getting harder and harder to doubt the former 18th-round draft pick; he literally produces everywhere. Aside from an elbow injury that sidelined him for a year, there have been no real lapses since he joined the pro ranks. Julien's signature skill – unparalleled discipline at plate – has proven viable at every level, keeping pitchers on the defensive.

This isn't to say Julien is a perfect offensive player. He does strike out a lot and benefitted from a .371 BABIP as a rookie. He needs to be executing on his plan to punish pitches in the zone in order for his approach to fully pay off. But he's already shown enough power put himself on another tier of upside compared to Arraez, and Julien should be viewed as a top-of-the-lineup cornerstone in the same way Arraez was. At least, against right-handed pitching.

As good as he is against righties, Julien is pretty much unplayable against left-handers. He slashed .196/.229/.217 versus southpaws as a rookie after posting a .649 OPS against them in the minors the previous year. So it's very handy to have Farmer on hand as a platoon-mate with a reliable veteran glove and .825 career OPS vs. LHP.

This is a strong setup out of the gates. How long it remains in place will be dictated by health, Julien's glove, and how hard the prospects are pushing from below. Specifically, Lee is trending toward an MLB debut by midseason after wrapping up 2023 in Triple-A. With third base and shortstop now occupied indefinitely, second base currently looks like the best path for the switch-hitting top prospect, whose glove would almost surely be superior to Julien's. At that point, first base or designated hitter become possible destinations for the latter.

Down the line, the Twins have a pair of other promising talents rising through their system, with Schobel and Keaschall drafted out of college in the second rounds of successive drafts. The two sit at No. 10 and 11 in Twins Daily's preseason prospect rankings as they prepare to conquer the high minors. In short, the pipeline is loaded at this position.

THE BAD
Minnesota's front office traded away a great deal of established quality in their overhaul at second base. Arraez is a star and Polanco was an extremely consistent producer when on the field. Even Gordon had shown an ability to deliver value in the majors. The Twins have shipped these veteran players out while investing their future at second largely in the unknown.

Farmer is the most proven commodity of the current crop but he's a backup-caliber player, turning 34 this season. The Twins are obviously hoping Julien will carry the torch, and as mentioned there's plenty of reason to believe, but he's not without drop-off risk. Also, it wouldn't be shocking to see his shaky defense deemed untenable with further exposure, forcing him off the position. 

From there we are really putting a lot of faith in Lee. The Twins are propping up their No. 2 prospect as the heir apparent at second, with the left side of the infield now locked down by franchise players. It's important to remember, though, that even the most successful big-leaguers often experience a learning curve. Julien's immediate breakthrough last year was more the exception than the rule. FanGraphs projects a .245/.304/.379 slash line and .298 wOBA from Lee in the majors this season. It'd be an okay rookie year but underwhelming production from the primary starter at second, especially after Julien set the bar.

I don't fault the Twins for trading players like Arraez, Polanco and Gordon proactively to get value for them while they can, but the downside of this plan is removing layers of depth and placing faith in inexperienced players, which has been a volatile proposition in the past. 

THE BOTTOM LINE
With one of their top prospects knocking on the door behind their reigning top rookie, the Twins feature premier young talent at second base. Polanco leaves big shoes to fill as a two-way player who powered the top of the lineup, but between Julien, Lee, Schobel and Keaschall, there's a bright future ahead, while Farmer, Castro, Martin and others provide quality short-term depth. I feel very optimistic about this unit compared to the middling projection from FanGraphs.

Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series:

• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base