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    Planning Minnesota's Perfect 2023 Trade Deadline


    Cody Christie

    Last season, the Twins made multiple trades before the injuries pushed the team out of the AL Central race. So, how can the front office plan for a perfect trade deadline in 2023?

    Image courtesy of Steven Bisig (Hernandez), Gregory Fisher (Robertson), John Hefti (Raley)- USA TODAY Sports

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    Many evaluators looked at the Twins' 2022 trade deadline with a positive view. Minnesota had clear needs at the deadline, and the team addressed those needs by trading for one of the top available starting pitchers, two late-inning relievers, and a back-up catcher. The Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez trades have not fared well over the last calendar year, but that should deter the front office from making other moves in 2023. 

    Entering the 2023 trade deadline, the Twins have multiple directions the team can follow. Some big names have the potential to be available, including Shohei Ohtani, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Juan Soto. There's no indication the team will be willing to surrender the prospect capital needed to acquire one of those superstars. However, the club can address weaknesses by trading for specific pieces with a lower acquisition cost. 

    The Twins have struggled against left-handed pitching for multiple seasons, so a solid right-handed bat can supplement the team's offense. Minnesota's easiest way to address this weakness is to get better production from the other significant right-handed bats on the roster, including Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Many contending teams need bullpen help, and the Twins will likely add at least one reliever before the trade deadline. It will be up to the front office to balance the quality of players being acquired and the prospects the organization will need to surrender. 

    If the Twins want a perfect 2023 trade deadline, these are the players the team should target.

    Right-Handed Bat: Teoscar Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
    Multiple teams are on the cusp of being buyers or sellers before the deadline, and the Mariners are part of this group. Minnesota has seen a lot of Seattle recently, so the front office has gotten a close-up look at Hernandez. He destroys left-handed pitching and is a free agent at the season's end. Over the last three seasons, only two players have a higher OPS versus lefties than Hernandez. His defense could be better in the outfield, but the Twins might only need him for specific match-ups down the stretch. 
    Back-Up Option: Hunter Renfroe, Los Angeles Angels

    Late Inning Bullpen Arm: David Robertson, New York Mets
    Minnesota hopes to add Caleb Thielbar and Brock Stewart back to the bullpen mix in August, but there are no guarantees with their age and injury histories. Robertson is one of the top available relievers that comes with extensive playoff experience and no signs of slowing down. His cost will be significantly higher than other bullpen options, but he might provide the most considerable potential boost. Relievers on expiring contracts are limited in the amount of innings they can pitch down the stretch. However, the Twins hope to play into October when Robertson can have an even more significant impact. 
    Back-Up Option: Jordan Hicks, St. Louis Cardinals

    Left-Handed Reliever: Brooks Raley, New York Mets
    The Mets have multiple relief arms likely to be dealt before the deadline, and in this perfect scenario, the Twins acquire their top two relief arms before the deadline. Raley is under team control through the 2024 season so that he can help the team next season. Over the last two seasons, he has posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and a 99-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 88 1/3 innings. Raley has held left-handed hitters for his career to a .546 OPS with 104 strikeouts and 17 walks in 313 PA. Jovani Moran is the only lefty currently on the active roster, and there is no guarantee that Thielbar will be at 100% before the season's end. The Twins need to add a lefty, especially for crucial match-ups in October. 
    Back-Up Option: Brad Hand, Colorado Rockies

    How would you plan Minnesota's perfect trade deadline? Do they need to be in the market for one of the big names? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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    The perfect trade deadline (minus any of the huge possibilities) - Bellinger and he plays out the season as he started the season, brings winning and leadership and shows he's finally healthy again and we resign him for 3 years so we don't have to have a MAT type player there every day again next year (I appreciate what MAT is but it's not an every day Centerfielder). 

    Hader and Robertson to shut the door when our starters pitch lights out. 

    Then we stay healthy, Lewis comes back and rakes, Polo is truly healthy and rakes and buck takes a few days away, gets his head on straight and figures it out down the stretch. Then we've got a fighting chance. 

     

    13 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    We should probably pay some attention to which players have been performing well as the team starts to produce better results.  Does not make sense to me to trade away the players performing well.  Here are the stats for the last 6 weeks.  

      wRC+
    Edouard Julien 182
    Ryan Jeffers 153
    Royce Lewis 138
    Max Kepler 138
    Alex Kirilloff 123
    Donovan Solano 123
    Kyle Farmer 112
    Carlos Correa 98
    Willi Castro 90
    Matt Wallner 82
    Joey Gallo 79
    Christian Vazquez 66
    Michael A. Taylor 64
    Byron Buxton 53
       
      ERA
    Emilio Pagan 1.13
    Jordan Balazovic 1.29
    Griffin Jax 1.88
    Kenta Maeda 2.48
    Oliver Ortega 2.77
    Bailey Ober 2.93
    Jhoan Duran 2.93
    Pablo Lopez 4.15
    Sonny Gray 4.81
    Jovani Moran 5.4
    Joe Ryan 5.75

    So you are saying we should trade Joe Ryan?

    6 hours ago, Doc Munson said:

    So you are saying we should trade Joe Ryan?

    You are assuming NOT trading away players that are playing well presently suggests that players that have not been playing well lately should be traded.  I did not suggest this in anyway nor do I believe it has any merit. 

    21 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    Let's get this out of the way early:

    TRADE GALLO, KEPLER, AND PAGAN FOR ANYTHING!!!

    Sorry, had to appease the masses...

    I can go along with Gallo and Pagan, but if they get rid of Pagan they will need to add at least 2 and probably 3 relievers. Pagan is doing better in low leverage situations this year, however, due to the fact the FO did nothing to add any decent relievers in the off season he is one of the 5 or 6 relievers on the team. Kind of sad huh!

    18 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

    There are only 3 reasons a team should be buyers at the deadline;

    1. The team is a strong contender to make/win the World Series, and they need to shore up their only weakness or turn an area of average performance into a strength
    2. The team is building to the next year, and acts to acquire players with additional control, rather than wait until the offseason
    3. The deal on offer is just too good to pass up, even if the team isn't really going anywhere

    I don't think point 1 applies to this year's team, so the Twins should only be looking for players that are undervalued by their current team, or have additional control (but please, no more trades for oft-injured players or players with a SSS of success).

    I would not trade for a reliever under almost any circumstances, as relievers are just so variable.  As has already been pointed out, I would much prefer to see which of our young guys find success down the stretch.

    Given all of this, I would not be buying unless it is a game-changing move (Ohtani or Soto) and I just can't see the Twins being willing to give up the prospects necessary for those players (unless the Angels lose their minds, and think Varland, Festa, Raya, Prielipp, and SWR are all going to be #2 starters, and are willing to take those 5 in return for Ohtani).

    I do think we need relievers. We have Duran and Jax that can be counted on. Stewart and Thielbar should be back soon hopefully. That leaves 4 more spots. Duran and Jax have been overused due to the lack of depth behind them. Even if Stewart and Thielbar come back there is still a need for at least 2 more guys that are at least semi reliable to help carry the load. In todays game it is so much 1 and done they need 3 relievers per game. and if you keep trotting out the same guys over and over again it can only lead to burned out arms by mid sept.

    20 hours ago, GKuehl said:

    If we can trade Gallo for anything (including a bucket of baseballs) we should.

    He’s clogging up the roster and impeding our ability to determine whether Larnach and Wallner should be core players to build around. Gallo’s OPS is propped up by a red-hot May, and he’s playing like the same player who got boo’ed out of New York last year. Time to cut our losses and either trade him to a team looking for a power-hitting pinch hitter or DFA him so Larnach or Wallner can get an extended look, especially since they can’t play any worse than Gallo has this season. 

    A lot of grief about Gallo, and that's understandable, but does anyone honestly think that he has any trade value at this point?

    14 hours ago, Fatbat said:

    The perfect trade would be no trades. Bring up Lee and work him into the team in mid August. Same with David Festa or any other hot hand in the minors. …. Well except that bucket of baseballs for Gallo, that would be a win/win. 

    I sort of think you have the right idea. Some interesting names being floated as trade targets, and a few of them would certainly help our team down the stretch, but at what cost? I really really really don't want to give up any valuable prospects at this point for players that "might" win us a couple of extra games. Just roll with what we have and hope for the best. If we are healthy --- sure, that's a big "if" -- I think this team can actually win a playoff series. 

    On 7/25/2023 at 9:12 AM, Major League Ready said:

    We should probably pay some attention to which players have been performing well as the team starts to produce better results.  Does not make sense to me to trade away the players performing well.  Here are the stats for the last 6 weeks.  

      wRC+
    Edouard Julien 182
    Ryan Jeffers 153
    Royce Lewis 138
    Max Kepler 138
    Alex Kirilloff 123
    Donovan Solano 123
    Kyle Farmer 112
    Carlos Correa 98
    Willi Castro 90
    Matt Wallner 82
    Joey Gallo 79
    Christian Vazquez 66
    Michael A. Taylor 64
    Byron Buxton 53
       
      ERA
    Emilio Pagan 1.13
    Jordan Balazovic 1.29
    Griffin Jax 1.88
    Kenta Maeda 2.48
    Oliver Ortega 2.77
    Bailey Ober 2.93
    Jhoan Duran 2.93
    Pablo Lopez 4.15
    Sonny Gray 4.81
    Jovani Moran 5.4
    Joe Ryan 5.75

    Color me skeptical that after 3500 MLB PAs, Kepler finally turned the corner we have been waiting for him to turn for 4 years. 

    Sell high.

    It's likely the Twins can replace his league average production with some combination of Wallner, Larnach, Castro, Gordon, Buxton, and/or a RH COF trade acquisition.

    On 7/25/2023 at 12:12 PM, Major League Ready said:

    We should probably pay some attention to which players have been performing well as the team starts to produce better results.  Does not make sense to me to trade away the players performing well.  Here are the stats for the last 6 weeks.  

      wRC+
    Edouard Julien 182
    Ryan Jeffers 153
    Royce Lewis 138
    Max Kepler 138
    Alex Kirilloff 123
    Donovan Solano 123
    Kyle Farmer 112
    Carlos Correa 98
    Willi Castro 90
    Matt Wallner 82
    Joey Gallo 79
    Christian Vazquez 66
    Michael A. Taylor 64
    Byron Buxton 53
       
      ERA
    Emilio Pagan 1.13
    Jordan Balazovic 1.29
    Griffin Jax 1.88
    Kenta Maeda 2.48
    Oliver Ortega 2.77
    Bailey Ober 2.93
    Jhoan Duran 2.93
    Pablo Lopez 4.15
    Sonny Gray 4.81
    Jovani Moran 5.4
    Joe Ryan 5.75

    I would assume Emilio’s ERA jumped a bit after the HR last night in the 8th, while getting only one out………that’s 27 runs per 9 innings.

    Kepler seems to be getting past his 2 hits per week phase……solid performer with a little XBH pop lately. Very encouraging.

    Pagan needs bases empty to start when he throws. Should write it down on dugout wall!

    1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

    Color me skeptical that after 3500 MLB PAs, Kepler finally turned the corner we have been waiting for him to turn for 4 years. 

    Sell high.

    It's likely the Twins can replace his league average production with some combination of Wallner, Larnach, Castro, Gordon, Buxton, and/or a RH COF trade acquisition.

    Am trying to be confident in Max but I can’t argue your points.

    On 7/25/2023 at 2:22 PM, IndianaTwin said:

    If we're talking "Perfect 2023 Trade Deadline," let's add the Twins going at least 3-2 the rest of the week and Cleveland going no better than 2-4. That puts Cleveland four games under .500 and 5.5 games back and hopefully makes them fully enter "sell" mode, depleting themselves a little further for future years. 

    Cleveland’s 2 best starters are on the 60 day IL…….neither available, even if healed, until late September. We can’t seriously be worried about them. Their schedule is going to light them up in the very near future!

    7 with White Sox

    3 with Houston

    4 with Toronto

    3 with Tampa 

    3 with Cincinnati

    13 of 20 games against very good competition.

    7 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

    A lot of grief about Gallo, and that's understandable, but does anyone honestly think that he has any trade value at this point?

    Quite possibly not.  He can be DFA'ed to open a roster spot, assuming the FO sees it that way.  In that case, they are on the hook for his remaining salary anyway.  And so, it is no cost to them to instead offer to cover his salary if there are multiple candidate teams who would sign him for major league minimum after he's a free agent.  So any possible trade value IMO will come from this approach, via a very, very minor bidding war while he can still be traded.

    I am good with bringing in a relief pitcher like Robertson, if the cost isn't too high. No Spencer Steer or Yennier Cano trades this year, please?

    We also need to clear the roster of the logjam of veterans who are being unproductive. Gallo and Buxton top the list. They both swing wildly at any pitch near the zone and don't come near most of them.

    On 7/25/2023 at 4:08 PM, specialiststeve said:

    A bit skimpy on the options... 

    Here is a better look at the options... 

    https://theathletic.com/4716877/2023/07/25/mlb-trade-deadline-teams-players-rumors/

    Max has been playing MUCH better... perfect time to move him... Maybe Dylan Carlson or O'Neil from the Cards...

    Teoscar would be nice also. 

    Bullpen arms are anyones guess ... so many out there. PLEASE do not overspend... See Lopez trade.. 

    FO, Please take a look at reality before trades:

    2023:       BA       OBP       Slug%      OPS +    K’s

    Teoscar   .239      .289       .416         97         133

    Max K.      .234.     .298.      .440.       101.         60

    Let’s wake up on Kepler - don’t love him but he’s playing OK & better than most think. These stats are prior to today’s game. BTW Teoscar has 16 HR & Max has 14 HR. Also, TH has 133 K’s & leads the league.

    TH - 389 AB’s ………..Max - 248 AB’s……..those extra 141 AB’s netted 2 more HR & 73 more K’s.

    With Kepler’s D, no comparison!!

    1 hour ago, ashbury said:

    Quite possibly not.  He can be DFA'ed to open a roster spot, assuming the FO sees it that way.  In that case, they are on the hook for his remaining salary anyway.  And so, it is no cost to them to instead offer to cover his salary if there are multiple candidate teams who would sign him for major league minimum after he's a free agent.  So any possible trade value IMO will come from this approach, via a very, very minor bidding war while he can still be traded.

    If I want him mildly, I sit back and wait til he’s released & his salary is covered & then I take my chances on a claim.

    Otherwise, I trade for him and offer to pick up $200K of his salary as my side of the trade. Some low ball number. Same as you eluded to above.

    8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

    If I want him mildly, I sit back and wait til he’s released & his salary is covered & then I take my chances on a claim.

    Otherwise, I trade for him and offer to pick up $200K of his salary as my side of the trade. Some low ball number. Same as you eluded to above.

    Yep.  If there aren't two teams with even this minimal level of interest, to play one off the other, just cut him and move on.  Time spent negotiating a trade for rather low return probably could be more productively used in other ways.

    8 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

    I sort of think you have the right idea. Some interesting names being floated as trade targets, and a few of them would certainly help our team down the stretch, but at what cost? I really really really don't want to give up any valuable prospects at this point for players that "might" win us a couple of extra games. Just roll with what we have and hope for the best. If we are healthy --- sure, that's a big "if" -- I think this team can actually win a playoff series. 

    After seeing us play in the 2nd half (less Polanco & Lewis) it seems we’ll have enough offense to be competitive………..our weakness seems to be glaringly in our bullpen!!!!

    It’s easy to expect too much from the Pen, nobody likes to lose a lead. It happens!

    However.

    Getting 7 strong from Pablo & then Moran giving up 3 runs w/o an out and Pagan contributing to that by yielding an HR in the same 1/2 inning is brutal. Could have/should have turned the 4 run lead over to Cole Sands and said go get 6 outs! 9th inning, Still in the game & Ortega promptly loads the bases with no outs……..our offense can’t overcome 7 runs in the last two innings.

    Today, Ryan was missing his spots and battled to hold Mariners to 4 through 4 innings. Then the bullpen gives up 4 more in the next 3 innings. To me the Pen is screaming HELP - HELP!!

    We need Thielbar plus 2 others from outside the organization to displace the bottom 3 we now have. I’m assuming Stewart is probably a September call up & maybe not Playoff worthy/healthy.

    Thielbar - Balazovic - Jax - Duran - Winder - Pagan - 2 new guys……Brad Hand - Michael Fulmer………experience over velocity & no clues & no command!

    Ortega - Lopez - Sands - Moran all need work or gotta go. Can’t walk guys as a reliever - not the first guy you see, certainly.

    15 hours ago, Doc Munson said:

    So you are saying we should trade Joe Ryan?

    Can’t trade Joe - he threw 4 innings today & gave up 4 runs……..his ERA is better than the Major League Ready list of Balazovic - Ortega - Pagan - Jax, after the last 3 games. Our PEN needs big time help!!

    23 hours ago, Fatbat said:

    The perfect trade would be no trades. Bring up Lee and work him into the team in mid August. Same with David Festa or any other hot hand in the minors. …. Well except that bucket of baseballs for Gallo, that would be a win/win. 

    If we could transition a couple young arms into relief options I would agree we could stay put with current roster……. that said, it doesn’t seem we can transition arms from starters to relievers without all sorts of ramifications for the rest of their careers. I don’t get it! Not being able to throw more than an inning or two after being a reliever makes sense but compromising a young talent by having him pitch in relief in August- October, after having been a starter, I don’t get.

    May need to go get a couple experienced relief guys……I like our roster on the field! Buxton could fake an injury & Gallo could go away and that would be cool.




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