MIN 4, MIL 0: Big Sexy With 7 Scoreless Lifts Twins Back to .500

I really enjoy watching him pitch.  It's nice to see someone throw it right where they intend to most of the time.  Let's see how he looks at the end of the year.  A 1 year contract would be just fine with me if he looks anything like he did last night. 

Last year? Are you sure?  I just remember an uninterrupted string of misery last year. Was it 2015? 2006? 1988?

Whoops.    2006.   .

It's late in the season, getting everyone an extra day of rest is not a bad idea. I hope they do it more often.

Pitchers are already coddled too much.

The strategy of the great Braves pitchers of the 90s and beyond was to throw MORE, not less.  Jim Kaat always said that a pitchers arm will "rust out before it wears out".  

An extra day of rest means an extra start for the worst starter on the team.  That is something you want to avoid.

Even factoring in AAA, no one except Ervin figures to have more than 195 IP.  There are exactly 50 team games left, so that is 10 times through the rotation.  At most, a couple guys might make 11 more starts.  Ervin will probably be at 210-215 IP.   Adding in the 40 at AAA for Berrios, he might hit 195.  He threw 170 last year, so not a big jump at all. In terms of pitches thrown, it might end up being a wash as Berrios threw a lot of pitches in few MLB IP last year.   Gibson probably 165, assuming he actually makes 10 more starts.  Assuming Mejia only misses two starts, he figures to check in at 155 to 160.  That after 135 last year.  Santiago, who knows?  Maybe 150 if he makes 9 more starts.

Point being, really no one has thrown more than they should.

I heard that today was Enns' scheduled start date for Rochester.   I suspect that was a big factor in the decision.

Actually, now that I think about it, I understand the logic too.  I don't agree with it, but I understand it.  Enns is the guy most likely to be lifted from the rotation when Santiago returns.  I believe Santiago pitches tonight as well.  Coincidence?  I say no.

Funny, after the last 3 starts, the posters ripping the "old fat guy" in the rotation as stupid and incomprehensible have all but disappeared.

Well, we can't let that happen!

 

Two games sucked, one better, and 2 games good (some might be more accepting, and say "There's one legit bad start, one slightly bad/meh start, one acceptable start, one good start, one great start."). Even with the Twins, he is down 3 games to 2, or 2-2-1. Seems he owes us a couple 3 more before I get excited. The first 13 games of his season don't just not happen, either. We (and he) got lucky a couple games is how I look at it so far. He certainly will be getting at least a couple more starts that I will not enjoy watching him, no matter what happens.

Why does he need to perform like an ace to satisfy you?

Since joining the Twins he's got a 4.02 ERA (4.06 FIP, so it's not luck based), and his 5.33:1 k:bb ratio suggests to me that he should be able to keep it up.

That is pretty good compared to what the Twins had been getting from the back of their rotation.

Saying he owes us 2 or 3 more good starts, despite the numbers above, implies that nothing short of top of the rotation production will justify him being in the rotation. Well, I don't understand that.

Even with him, we still have one unclaimed spot, so he's not blocking anyone.

In regards to his starts with Atlanta, sure those happened. But obviously Falvey didn't think that's who he was or they wouldn't have brought him in.

I said when we signed him that they must see something from his time in Atlanta that is fixable.

I really don't see any downside to this at all.

Santiago pitched last night and didn't exactly wow anyone.

Regardless, they can't keep him on rehab indefinitely. Eventually, the Twins will have to activate him. More to the point, prior to September 1. So they can't just not use him. The Twins will have to get some kind of usage from him at least until rosters expand.

Sorry. Certainly didn't mean to assign an opinion to you.

He's been a low 4 ERA starter here, and the numbers show its not luck dependent.

Yet, that doesn't appear to be good enough for you, since not all of his starts have been good (and only aces don't regularly have bad starts mixed in).

I'm just trying to understand your opinion on him.

No one has thrown more than they should but even in the 90s teams worked to have a bullpen game every once in awhile and give a guy a break. I can do ten sets of ten pushups but will do better on the later ones if I get a bit of a break between sets six and seven (well no I can't do ten sets of ten, but if I could this would be true). Getting an extra day off in the heat and drag of August is probably not a bad idea.

 

An extra start might mean an extra start for the worst starter (might not too depending on how things end - with 50 games each of the five spots should get 10 starts so who cares what order the five are in) but the point is that the starts in between might be better if guys get an extra days rest 2/3 of the way through the year.

Other than Berrios, the Twins current starting pitchers aren't flamethrowers. For the most part, Gibson, Santana and Colon rely on command and movement to get outs. Every time I've seen/heard anyone discuss the subject, they say those type of pitchers tend to do worse with extra rest.

The only reference I've heard to some pitchers struggling with extra rest are guys who rely on sink. Which makes sense, as if you overthrow a pitch that is supposed to sink, it... doesn't. And that means it sails right through the batter's wheelhouse. And that means the ball lands somewhere very far away from the batter's box.

 

But I've never heard of command guys struggling with extra rest.

Even if it makes sense with a sinkerballer, I'm not sure I've seen data that shows it's true.

The one pitcher I remember it being said for a lot was Blackburn. So I checked his splits.

Career OPS against:

4 days rest: (1730 PA) .833

5 days rest: (1129 PA) .844

6+ days rest: (595 PA) .753

The numbers are basically the same on 4 or 5 days rest, and on 6+ they are far better, not worse.

The K and bb rates are mostly the same, btw, it's the slugging that changes.

In Blackburns case he does a better job limiting hard hit balls with more rest.

This is only one guy, but my hunch is that its one of those things that people say because it makes logical sense, but isn't actually true.

I'd be interested in seeing more data, but I think that the advantage of extra rest more than makes up for any disadvantage, even for sinkerballers.

Jim Kaat always said that a pitchers arm will "rust out before it wears out".  

Kaat was in the majors for a long time, but even his arm wore down. Moving to the pen is what kept him on the field at the end of career, which goes against his statement.

The front office should offer him the Bobby Bonilla Special.

He should be a bargain in 2032 when his contract runs out.