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You’re not alone if you are firmly in the anti-Max Kepler camp, and no Twins Daily article can convince you to love him. Instead, read this as assurance that the Twins can get something of value for him.
The current regime does not part with assets for no return. They may hold on to them for too long, but if they have value, they won’t be salary dumped. Kepler could fit into both groups, depending on your outlook. After a terrific 2019 campaign, in which he smacked 36 home runs with an OPS+ of 123 (23% better than the average hitter) as a 26-year-old, he had suiters. The Twins didn’t bite and retained him on a team-friendly extension.
Since then, the Twins and Kepler have been chasing a high, hoping he can put together another year like 2019. He has shown flashes. In 2022, before a May 28th leg injury, he slashed .247/.353/.425, hitting 26% better than the average player. He trod water until late July when he suffered a fractured toe, which he fought through to a tune of .178/.239/.228, 68% below average. Still, on the year, he was merely a slightly below-average hitter.
A slightly below-average hitter is nothing to be excited about, but that’s who Kepler has been almost his entire career. It’s somewhat befuddling, as he is, by and large, the same hitter in 2023 as a 23-year-old in 2016. It’s part of fans’ frustration with him—he seems to have not developed over his eight-year career.
Why is he valuable, then? His defense, for one. He plays a terrific right field. He’s 8th across MLB in Outs Above Average (OAA) among all outfielders since 2020. That stat is remarkable because scoring well as a corner outfielder is more difficult than a centerfielder. And runs saved are runs saved. He has range and an arm and can cover centerfield in a pinch. He’s a solid centerfielder but prefers to stay in the corner.
He can be considered a solid regular as an almost-average hitter with an elite defense. He’s averaged more than 2.0 WAR over the last three seasons via both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That number is generally taken as meaning solid regular.
Is that what fans had hoped for after his 2019 campaign? Nope. Is it valuable? Yup.
Pair this value with his contract—it pays him $8.5 million this year with a $10 million option for next year. It’s frankly a bargain, given his production. Andrew Benintendi, another corner outfielder worth approximately the same value since 2020, was given a five-year, $75 million contract, good for $15 million a year until 2027.
Nonetheless, the context matters here. Many of the Twins’ most exciting prospects or recently-graduated prospects are left-handed corner outfielders—Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and even Edouard Julien, if you’re feeling frisky. The presence of Kepler blocks those players.
Although it is fun to dream on those young hitters, none are a guarantee. Kirilloff, quite famously, is coming off of his second major wrist surgery to repair an injury that has decimated his performance at the plate and could potentially flare up again. Larnach has also dealt with several injuries and has been a below-average hitter and worse defender than Kepler across 603 MLB plate appearances. Wallner and Julien have been acceptable in their minimal time, but that’s not necessarily indicative of future performance.
It’s very reasonable to look at that information and come to a conclusion that the drop-off, if there is one, between those prospects and Kepler can’t be too drastic, given Kepler’s moderate ceiling. At the same time, there is value in known commodities, which Kepler is at this point in his career. He’s off to a solid start in 2023, despite his early struggles. An average hitter with great corner defense isn’t someone to build your lineup around, but it’s not a weakness.
That statement is said with full knowledge that Kepler has served as the primary leadoff hitter in 2023 against righties. It’s one of the more frustrating parts of the situation. If he were hitting seventh, he probably wouldn’t have more fans, but he would have fewer detractors.
Let’s do a mental exercise. Imagine you were a GM and had never heard of Max Kepler. If he were described as an average hitter with 20 homer pop and an average on-base percentage, a potential Gold Glove right fielder who can play center when needed, and he cost $10 million, would your ears perk up?
Maybe. It depends on your circumstances. He won’t be appetizing for a Padres team with Fernando Tatís Jr. and Juan Soto in their corner spots. On the other hand, a Yankees team that’s running out Willie Calhoun and Franchy Cordero is probably interested to some degree, even when their injured regulars return. Kepler fits the bill of a perfect fourth outfielder.
Your opinion on his fit with the Twins probably lies in whether you see some combination of Nick Gordon, Joey Gallo, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, and maybe Julien, Royce Lewis, and Kyle Garlick as being closer to Tatis-Soto or to Calhoun-Cordero.
It’s really not as fun to say, “he’s an asset that a winning team can make use of,” as it is to say, “he’s a bum,” or “he’s a misunderstood genius,” but that’s where this lands.
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