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    Make It Official! Twins 3, Astros 2: It's Christian Vázquez's World, We're All Just Living In It

    Hans Birkeland

    By Hans Birkeland

    After some captivating baseball in the first two games of the series, the rubber match featured some good pitching, bad baserunning and another multiple hit game for Brooks Lee. And all three runs were driven in by Christian Vázquez, with one of those being the result of a walk-off home run off of Josh Hader.

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score:
    Starting Pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson: 6 IP 3 H 2 ER 2 BB 4 K (88 Pitches, 59 Strikes, 67%)
    Home Runs: Christian Vázquez (4)
    Top 3 WPA:     Vázquez (.353), Matt Wallner (.143), Jhoan Durán (.136)
    Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

    image.png.d8108943bea039541a3b6007536668b1.png

    After a chippy first two games of the series against the red-hot Astros, the Twins turned to Houston native Simeon Woods Richardson as they hoped to win two of three for the fifth series in a row. Woods Richardson has seen middling results lately, with hitters punishing his change-up in particular. Spencer Arrighetti took the ball for Houston, a rookie with a good strikeout rate and not much else.

    Woods Richardson looked pretty good, stuff-wise. After an easy first inning, however, the patient Astros laid off numerous chaneg-ups and sliders on the corners that were called balls in the second. After a Jon Singleton single, SWR walked Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick. A sacrifice fly followed for the first run, and then SWR made his only true mistake of the inning, an elevated change-up to Jose Altuve, and that's been an automatic hit for the second baseman for about 12 years. Jeremy Pena was retired quickly afterward, limiting the damage.

    The Twins had trouble stringing together hits against Arrighetti, but had consistent traffic throughout the day. A scary moment occurred when the Houston rookie lost his grip on a fastball and hit Carlos Correa on the hand (because of course it hit his hand). Correa exited the game but X-rays were negative.

    In the second, Byron Buxton, who is hitting in the .270's these days, rolled a single through the right side and then the newly-recalled Matt Wallner worked a ten pitch at-bat that ended in a walk, fouling off some high fastballs we are all used to him swinging through in the past. Christian Vázquez then looped a single over (definitely not his listed 6'0") Alex Bregman's head to cut the lead in half.

    Vázquez wasn't done. After a Jose Altuve error (later changed to a base hit) allowed Brooks Lee to reach, Wallner scorched a 117 MPH line drive into the right-center gap to put runners on the corners with no outs. Vázquez grounded to Bregman, who probably could have started a traditional double play as he threw to second to retire Wallner. But Altuve threw home to try to cut down the advancing Lee, who would have been out by several steps had catcher Cesar Salazar held on to the throw, but he instead dropped the ball three separate times as Lee slid in to tie the game. Vazquez then was caught too far off first base for some reason so that two outs were, in fact, recorded on the play.

    SWR continued to command the ball well, and got several quick pop outs in the middle innings to extend his outing, generally just by pumping fastball after fastball in good locations. He retired 13 in a row to end his day. He only allowed three hits to one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the past month, albeit one without Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez.

    Jose Miranda didn't start the day following the conclusion of his historic hitting streak, but was called up on to pinch hit for Farmer in the seventh and promptly lined a sharp single to left. He then got a great jump off of reliever Bryan Abreu but had a poor slide and was thrown out stealing, courtesy of a seed from Salazar.

    Twins Daily's winning "Make It Official!" game recaps are sponsored by Official Fried Chicken, which you can find in center field of Target Field. With a name like "Official," we know we have to be the best in the game every day, and from your first bite, you'll know that's a promise we make good on.

    The Astros led off the top of the eighth with a double from folk hero Joey Loperfido, but even with Altuve, Pena and Bregman coming up, they could not get a hit against Griffin Jax. Altuve was caught looking at a 3-2 fastball and Bregman swung through a beautiful sweeper to end the frame.

    The Twins then led off their half with a walk from Kepler, and an infield hit from Buxton. Lee then rolled a ball up the middle that Pena made a great play on, taking it himself to retire Buxton and firing to first to nab Lee for the double play. Manuel Margot then grounded out to end the threat.

    After a nice inning from Jhoan Duran, at least stuff-wise, Vázquez led off the bottom of the ninth against all-world closer Josh Hader. Naturally, he drove in his third run of the game with a walk-off bomb into the flower beds in left field; a thrilling end to a great series against a hot opponent.

     

    The Good:
    -SWR had a good combination of stuff and command. His fastball reached 95 MPH and he had very few misses over the plate.
    -Josh Staumont has pretty pedestrian underlying numbers, but has hit 99 MPH in his last outing, and hit 101 MPH today. I can't think of any other pitcher with Thoracic Outlet Surgery who has recovered this well. I can't even think of anyone who lasted more than a couple of years in the league after that surgery.
    -Wallner only got two plate appearances, but both were excellent in quality.
    -Vázquez has been taking more competitive at-bats lately, and was rewarded for it today.

    The Bad:
    -Correa may not have broken a bone, but a deep bruise could easily still result in a few days off, or even an IL stint, which is exactly what happened in 2022 when Royce Lewis was first called up. Lee did move over to shortstop in the eighth after Miranda pinch-hit for Farmer.
     

    What’s Next: Chris Paddack (5-3, 5.29 ERA) starts the first of a three game set in Chicago opposing Chris Flexen (2-7, 5.08). Chicago, you may have heard, is pretty bad this year. Flexen was once a good number four starter for the Mariners, but has played for several teams since then and hasn't been the same. Paddack had a difficult last few starts, and was placed on the IL with shoulder fatigue, which may have just been a way to give him a break and limit his innings. Facing a bad offense like the White Sox might be the perfect confidence boost.


    Postgame Interviews:

     

     

    Bullpen Usage Chart:

      WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT
    Funderburk 37 0 26 0 0 63
    Winder 0 0 43 0 0 43
    Sands 0 14 0 28 0 42
    Alcalá 0 0 24 2 0 26
    Thielbar 9 0 0 9 0 18
    Jax 0 0 0 0 16 16
    Durán 0 0 0 0 22 22
    Staumont 13 0 0 0 9 22
    Okert 0 0 0 0 0 0


     

     

    Hans likes the Twins and hates narratives, teams and players that insist upon themselves.
    Follow Hans Birkeland on Twitter: OlHansie

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    Featured Comments

    Mortimerkenny21

    Mortimerkenny21 1,442

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

    Lee's throw on the run to get Dubon by 15 feet on a bunt was really impressive.

    That was an absolute joy to watch! Runner didn't even have a chance on the bunt, it looked pretty slick! Impressive start by B. Lee in the Bigs!

    And Vazquez, good for him and I bet a good confidence booster after a rough start swinging the bat this season. Him and the whole team were having a blast after the walk off blast!

    insagt1

    insagt1 1,661

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    IMO, Lopez is key to 2nd half success or failure. We got him to be a stopper of sorts or at least a #2 or #3 starter. He has been pretty 'off' all season. A couple of good outings sandwiched in between far too many real clunkers. He needs to be why we traded for him. And its not that he is pitching into bad luck or no run support. He has been just plain ineffective in too many starts.

    Get him fixed and I have to like Twins chances of maybe chasing down Cleveland.

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,879

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    I agree with you that Rocco seems much less concerned with right against right but then again... he doesn't have a choice on that front because he has 7 pure right handers currently on the roster. 8 of them if Royce Lewis was still on the 26 Man and Lee in AAA. 

    You are right... Castro (or Santana) is the obvious choice to turn into a short sider if Julien replaced Farmer on the roster. 

    Let's forget Julien for the moment because the more immediate interesting question is this:

    What would Rocco and the front office do when/if: 

    A. The team remains healthy when Lewis comes back.

    B. Brooks Lee continues hitting... let's say he has an OPS over .900 when Lewis returns. 

    Who goes to make room? Farmer cut? Larnach sent down?

    Who plays 2B? Lee? Lewis? Castro? 

     

     

     

    What will they do when Martin comes back? Lewis is obviously not going to AAA, but should Martin have to? Or should Martin be the one who comes back after the ASB and sends Farmer to the DFA line? The FO is going to have to make a decision sooner or later.

    There's no way that Farmer can be part of their playoff plans at this point. And if that's true, the "2nd half," and August especially, need to be when they start making decisions based on October and not the 162 game marathon. Decision day is coming. And August 1 should be the latest they set the date for it. Either Farmer turns on the flame thrower the rest of July or August 1 needs to be when he says goodbye.

    They seem to have the same general idea about things as they tend to give vets through July to figure it out and then start shaping their bullpen and lineup around who's earned it. Will be interesting to see if they're willing to cut bait with a "good clubhouse leader" or if we start seeing the IL be used more for what some would say are minor "injuries."

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,985

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    What will they do when Martin comes back? Lewis is obviously not going to AAA, but should Martin have to? Or should Martin be the one who comes back after the ASB and sends Farmer to the DFA line? The FO is going to have to make a decision sooner or later.

    There's no way that Farmer can be part of their playoff plans at this point. And if that's true, the "2nd half," and August especially, need to be when they start making decisions based on October and not the 162 game marathon. Decision day is coming. And August 1 should be the latest they set the date for it. Either Farmer turns on the flame thrower the rest of July or August 1 needs to be when he says goodbye.

    They seem to have the same general idea about things as they tend to give vets through July to figure it out and then start shaping their bullpen and lineup around who's earned it. Will be interesting to see if they're willing to cut bait with a "good clubhouse leader" or if we start seeing the IL be used more for what some would say are minor "injuries."

    And Kirilloff? What do they do with him. Farmer not on the roster would have to be a complication to Kirilloff reporting to Target field when he is ready because Kirilloff would require a short side handcuff and if you get rid of Farmer... Who is it? 

    Martin has to report to St. Paul when he comes off the IL if everyone is healthy because if Martin replaces Farmer. Martin is now a young moldable rookie getting fed short side scraps. That would make me cry. 

    Farmer is a major complication to the Twins left right way of life. 

    If Farmer is on the roster on August 1st... It causes a major complication because in order to justify his roster space... he HAS TO PLAY against left handed starters and we currently are overstocked with players who stand in the right handed batters box. Farmer is on the bottom of the pile. A better hitter in the right handed batters box will have to rest to play Farmer unless the Twins purposely lessen that right handed batters box pile by removing a better player than Farmer is. If Farmer also sits against left handers because you have 9 players who are playing better standing in the right handed batters box. He serves no purpose.  

    Damned if you do... Damned if you don't. Farmer is a major complication to the Twins chosen way of life. 

     

     

    Whitey333

    Whitey333 3,701

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    So why bring up Wallner if Rocco is just going to replace him with a right handed batter like Margo?  Wallner deserves the chance to hit against lefties once in a while.  So does Larnach.  To send Margo up there with his automatic out, 0 for like 22 pinch hitting, does Larnach no good if he doesn't at least get the chance to bat for himself.  I think he's only had 8 at bats against lefties all year.  How can you make a judgement on that in such limited chances?  It's not only unfair it's unprofessional.  Margo hasn't ad a hit pinch hitting ALL YEAR.  That's why it's hard to support Rocco wholeheartedly.  He's good with analytics to a fault.  Yes some common sense baseball instincts would help.  Not starting Miranda was a  joke.  If you felt the need to give him a rest why didn't he wait until Chicago?  He had people in the stands paying ridiculous prices to watch MLB.  MIRANDA, not you Rocco, was tye biggest story in MLB.  And you rest like him, at home?  No feel for the game and hometown fans at all.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,348

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    41 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

    And Kirilloff? What do they do with him. Farmer not on the roster would have to be a complication to Kirilloff reporting to Target field when he is ready because Kirilloff would require a short side handcuff and if you get rid of Farmer... Who is it? 

    Martin has to report to St. Paul when he comes off the IL if everyone is healthy because if Martin replaces Farmer. Martin is now a young moldable rookie getting fed short side scraps. That would make me cry. 

    Farmer is a major complication to the Twins left right way of life. 

    If Farmer is on the roster on August 1st... It causes a major complication because in order to justify his roster space... he HAS TO PLAY against left handed starters and we currently are overstocked with players who stand in the right handed batters box. Farmer is on the bottom of the pile. A better hitter in the right handed batters box will have to rest to play Farmer unless the Twins purposely lessen that right handed batters box pile by removing a better player than Farmer is. If Farmer also sits against left handers because you have 9 players who are playing better standing in the right handed batters box. He serves no purpose.  

    Damned if you do... Damned if you don't. Farmer is a major complication to the Twins chosen way of life. 

     

     

    Martin isn't exactly young, and he can sit and play. I'd rather he be in MN, helping them, than sitting in St. P doing nothing to help them. Either field the best players, or give up.

    IaBeanCounter

    IaBeanCounter 650

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Have a question on WAR for Vazquez.  He basically won the game yesterday with 3 RBIs, all of the Twins runs.  How much did his WAR change?  I think it should have increased by at least .5.  JMHO

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,348

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, IaBeanCounter said:

    Have a question on WAR for Vazquez.  He basically won the game yesterday with 3 RBIs, all of the Twins runs.  How much did his WAR change?  I think it should have increased by at least .5.  JMHO

    that's not WAR, that's WPA. 

    IndianaTwin

    IndianaTwin 12,342

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    21 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    I never priced FUBO so I'm not sure. 

    Those cables, along with the servers, switchers, software, power system, cooling system, networking, etc. etc. 

    It only cost me about 64 grand since I did the work myself.

    Well worth it because I'm watching the games for free. 

    As opposed to about 48 grand if you’d hired it done. That’s generally my experience. 
     

    A few years ago, my father-in-law was finishing a roofing project. I asked how long it would take. He said, “Another two hours.” Probably about right for him by himself, but with my help, we got it done in three. 

    IaBeanCounter

    IaBeanCounter 650

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Just now, Mike Sixel said:

    that's not WAR, that's WPA. 

    WAR wins above replacement.  My opinion was that Vaz provided the offense to get the win that a replacement player would not have.  He only drove in 3 runs so the pitching and defense was needed for the win.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,348

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    4 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

    WAR wins above replacement.  My opinion was that Vaz provided the offense to get the win that a replacement player would not have.  He only drove in 3 runs so the pitching and defense was needed for the win.

    I mean, that's now what WAR measures. That's what WPA measures....you can want a stat to mean something it doesn't mean, but I'm not sure why.....not in good faith.

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,985

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

    As opposed to about 48 grand if you’d hired it done. That’s generally my experience. 
     

    A few years ago, my father-in-law was finishing a roofing project. I asked how long it would take. He said, “Another two hours.” Probably about right for him by himself, but with my help, we got it done in three. 

    The servers I am using are a little more expensive. That's because they actually serve. 

    Randomly while watching the Twins game.

    They will fire tennis balls at me. 

    You can't get that for 48 grand. 

    singlesoverwalks

    singlesoverwalks 361

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

    Have a question on WAR for Vazquez.  He basically won the game yesterday with 3 RBIs, all of the Twins runs.  How much did his WAR change?  I think it should have increased by at least .5.  JMHO

    One of the critiques of WAR is that it doesn't take the game situation into account. That is, Vásquez's home run last night was worth just as much as if he'd hit it while losing 10-0. This critique comes from none other than Bill James. WAR is hegemonic right now - people on online message boards will attack you if you question it. But you do should question that part.

    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 10,764

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    12 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    I agree with you that Rocco seems much less concerned with right against right but then again... he doesn't have a choice on that front because he has 7 pure right handers currently on the roster. 8 of them if Royce Lewis was still on the 26 Man and Lee in AAA. 

    You are right... Castro (or Santana) is the obvious choice to turn into a short sider if Julien replaced Farmer on the roster. 

    Let's forget Julien for the moment because the more immediate interesting question is this:

    What would Rocco and the front office do when/if: 

    A. The team remains healthy when Lewis comes back.

    B. Brooks Lee continues hitting... let's say he has an OPS over .900 when Lewis returns. 

    Who goes to make room? Farmer cut? Larnach sent down?

    Who plays 2B? Lee? Lewis? Castro? 

     

     

     

    Lewis isn’t likely returning before the deadline and the current administration has DFA’d veterans approaching the deadline. Smith and Duffey combined for 6.3 million when they were let go justafter the deadline in 2022. Parker was DFA’d on July 23. I think letting go of Farmer is possible upon Lewis’ return.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,348

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, singlesoverwalks said:

    One of the critiques of WAR is that it doesn't take the game situation into account. That is, Vásquez's home run last night was worth just as much as if he'd hit it while losing 10-0. This critique comes from none other than Bill James. WAR is hegemonic right now - people on online message boards will attack you if you question it. But you do should question that part.

    Who's attacking anyone? Y'all are asking war to be wpa....

    Batting average doesn't take game situations into account. Era doesn't. Should we throw those out?

    USAFChief

    USAFChief 79,372

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

    6 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

    Have a question on WAR for Vazquez.  He basically won the game yesterday with 3 RBIs, all of the Twins runs.  How much did his WAR change?  I think it should have increased by at least .5.  JMHO

    Neither version of WAR considers RBI, for one thing.

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,985

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    7 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

    Lewis isn’t likely returning before the deadline and the current administration has DFA’d veterans approaching the deadline. Smith and Duffey combined for 6.3 million when they were let go justafter the deadline in 2022. Parker was DFA’d on July 23. I think letting go of Farmer is possible upon Lewis’ return.

    There is some precedence. They have but they usually have to over fill the bath tub first before they let water hit the floor. Lopez and Fulmer were acquired to cause roster space decisions. Cano and Hamilton AAA water was not let into the bath tub. 

    I think Lee could force Farmer off the roster but Blake Parker making room for Devin Smeltzer remains an exception. 

    Lewis out until August? You are usually right on most things. I hope you are wrong on that one. 

     

     

    singlesoverwalks

    singlesoverwalks 361

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Who's attacking anyone? Y'all are asking war to be wpa....

    Batting average doesn't take game situations into account. Era doesn't. Should we throw those out?

    I think the problem is the branding. WAR stands for wins above replacement. It claims to quantify how many wins the player would add to your team's record. But I don't see how you can ignore game situations in a statistic that makes that claim. If it were just branded as a composite of different averages - like Ultimate Player Rater or something like that - it would be easier to stomach. I don't buy the claim that it actually tells me how many wins a player would add at all.

    (As for WPA, I don't think it does that either. It's too situational and luck-based. It also ignores fielding. There should be a compromise between the two statistics.)



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