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The Minnesota Twins entered the offseason with more questions than answers surrounding their starting rotation. However, the team received an early wave of good news that could help stabilize things moving forward. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey shared positive updates on both Pablo Lopez and David Festa, signaling that two key arms are on track to enter spring training in good health.
Lopez is reportedly already fully recovered and preparing for a normal offseason routine, while Festa is expected to start throwing soon and should be ready for the start of camp. After an injury-filled 2025 season that forced both pitchers to miss significant time, their health will be a major storyline as the Twins plan for 2026.
Pablo Lopez’s Rebound Opportunity
When the Twins extended Lopez before the 2024 season, they envisioned him as a steady frontline starter to anchor the rotation for years to come. While multiple injuries disrupted his 2025 campaign, his performance when healthy reaffirmed Minnesota's optimism.
Lopez’s year was bookended by health issues, beginning with a hamstring strain in April and ending with a minor right forearm strain in late September. In between, a shoulder injury cost him much of the summer and led to a stint on the 60-day injured list. When he was on the mound, though, he looked every bit like the ace the Twins hoped for by posting a 2.74 ERA (156 ERA+) across 75 2/3 innings.
Some of his underlying metrics took a step back, including a career-low 93 Stuff+ rating and a drop in strikeout rate to 23.4% (down from 24.9% for his career). Those dips can be explained by the start-and-stop nature of his season, which disrupted his rhythm and mechanics. With a full, uninterrupted offseason ahead, the Twins expect Lopez to return to peak form and lead the rotation once again.
The 29-year-old remains under contract for two more years at a team-friendly $43 million. That deal makes him both a valuable trade chip and a stabilizing force should the Twins decide to keep him. Falvey and his staff will surely field calls from pitching-needy contenders this winter, but Lopez’s strong recent track record makes him just as appealing as a cornerstone piece for 2026.
Outlook for 2026: If Lopez stays healthy, he profiles as the leader of the pitching staff and a potential AL Cy Young contender. Expect him to handle 170-plus innings with strong command, high strikeout totals, and veteran leadership that will help guide a young pitching staff through a transitional year.
David Festa’s Chance to Claim a Rotation Spot
Festa’s first two seasons in the big leagues have been a mixed bag. The young right-hander has shown flashes of promise, including the ability to miss bats, but he’s also struggled with consistency. Through 117 2/3 innings at the major league level, he has posted a 5.12 ERA and a 4.27 FIP, numbers that reflect both his inexperience and his potential.
Festa missed the final month of 2025 with a minor shoulder issue, but the Twins are confident he’ll be fully ready for the start of spring training. His ability to stay on the field and refine his secondary pitches could determine whether he begins 2026 in the rotation or in the minors to refine his arsenal. His overall numbers are likely affected by his attempts to pitch through shoulder issues last season.
Festa was only recently removed from being one of the team’s top prospects and still represents one of the more intriguing young arms in the organization. His fastball velocity and developing changeup give him a foundation to build upon, while his competitive demeanor has impressed coaches throughout his rise in the system. With the Twins leaning toward a youth movement, Festa will get a legitimate chance to earn a starting spot in a rotation that could also include Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel.
Outlook for 2026: The Twins view 2026 as a key evaluation year for Festa. If he can translate his raw stuff into consistent command and efficiency, he has the potential to solidify himself as a potential playoff-caliber starter. Expect the team to give him a long look early in the season, even if growing pains continue to surface.
Rotation Picture Coming into Focus
The Twins’ pitching situation has been a puzzle for much of the past year, but healthy updates on Lopez and Festa help provide some clarity. If Lopez returns to form and Festa continues to develop, Minnesota could enter 2026 with a balanced mix of experience and youth on the mound.
How the rotation ultimately looks will depend heavily on the club’s offseason strategy. The front office may explore trades involving veteran starters like Lopez or Joe Ryan to restock the system, or they could keep their core intact to remain competitive in the American League Central. Either way, having both Lopez and Festa trending in the right direction gives the Twins a much-needed foundation to build upon.
As the offseason unfolds, optimism around the pitching staff feels justified. After a year of frustration and uncertainty, Minnesota’s rotation may finally be ready to turn the corner, one healthy arm at a time.
Will Lopez and Festa both be part of the team’s starting rotation on Opening Day? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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- Patzky, nclahammer, DannySD and 1 other
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