Kepler Versus Buxton Has Become No Contest

The thing with Byron, and it has been pointed out on here before, is he has only played 313 games in his minor league career! 313! that is less then two full major league seasons. He has played a total of 109 games in the high minors, 59 at AA and 50 at AAA. The kid needs more time, plain and simple. He is one of the most talented players in all of baseball, let the kid develop. It's not like he played in the SEC for 2-3 seasons where he saw good pitching. He was rushed, plain and simple, blame the FO more than Byron. 

His AAA numbers are good, 67-198 or .338, he is ONLY 22. He will come around, let him sit in AAA all of next year too, bring him up beginning of 2018 or as a Sept. call up next year. If he is still struggling this badly at that time, then I would start to worry. His confidence has to be absolutely destroyed because I highly doubt he as ever struggled this badly in his life at any sport, and he has faced heavy criticism.

Just my 2 cents...

If that's the only way to break through the impasse, OK, I guess. But assuming it works, this method won't work in the future, during some pennant race where he finds himself in a slump and isn't picking up the breaking ball in the dirt or whatever. Far preferable would be to execute the cliched Battle His Tail Off maneuver.

 

But hitting coaching is as much psychology as skill-teaching, so good luck to Chad Allen in finding the key here.

I'm really really concerned that they're trying to make him into a slap hitter.  They ruined Santana that way, they got nothing out of Gomez that way...
 

Buxton needs a reboot. I didn't think he should have been called like Brock mentions but I expected it because of lack of CF options in the org. My preference would be that he doesn't get a Sept callup nor does he get called up until mid season (or later) next year. Let's give him some real time in AAA to not only have a hot streak but also maintain that hot streak. His awesome 30 game streak this year still resulted in a 3:1 K:BB ratio, 20+ % K rate and an almost .400 BAPIP.

Kepler is a classic case of a prospect that doesn't look like anything statistically but didn't outright fail. And he requires the mysterious words projection based on scouting analysis. Things don't always show up in stats. For example Travis Harrison has incredible power but he posts isoP's similar to a middle infielder.

If the next 4-5 weeks go well in AAA I would not be opposed to a Sept. call up just because more baseball/hitting is going to be better for him.

But when the new regime comes in, finding someone to diagnose his swing issues and work with him all off-season is priority #1. Then start him in AAA to refine it in games.

If we are at the same stage in a year, I will start worrying more about Buxton.  I love what Max is doing, but he did have almost 30% more plate appearances in the minors than Buxton has had, or a season plus of games.  

 

I really hope they don't rush him back.  If he looks like a changed hitter next Spring Training then I hope he makes the team.  If not, let him play in AAA.  If the Twins need to sign an OF to make that happen, they should.  You can make all the comparisons you want, but it won't change the fact he only turns 23 this offseason.  I still have high hopes.

I figure we should give Buxton at least another 4-5 years to figure it out.

By 4-5 weeks, you mean 2, right? There is no time left in AAA...

I didn't realize the season was only 2.5 more weeks. Hopefully they make the playoffs. I would add fall league, Dominican, etc.

He's gotten a home run in his most recent six-game stint in Rochester, also a double, so in small sample size he's more or less on track for power. I don't know quite where you are inferring that.

 

If he's slapping most of the time, and happens to connect the few times he ever really cuts loose, well, that's a remarkable talent and it should indeed get exploited better.

I mean, that was the talk during his last AAA experience too.  Everyone was abuzz about his leg kick.  Then he comes up, leg kick disappears, K's go through the roof, and it looks like he's just trying to make contact.  Is that him trying to adjust because he's over-matched, or is he being coached to shorten up and put the ball on the ground once he gets to the MLB?

Buxton is STILL a kid with fewer than 850 plate appearances above the A ball level.  Also sure hope that fact that Kepler's home runs are more than his last 2 minor league seasons combined is not a pre-cursor to him following up his rookie season surprise in Danny Santana fashion.  Just sayin

pretty sure he's not eligible for the fall league at this point.

I'm also pretty sure he's not eligible for Dominican leagues either, unless we sold Georgia to the Dominican Republic and I missed it.

"Back in my day," prospects were given beyond their age 22 season before people started labeling them as busts or suggesting that they nut up or shut up.

Seriously, some of the comments on here are absolutely ridiculous.

Has he been bad? Yup, he sure has. But he's also insanely young ... he's actually considered very young for the International League at this point.

Fans need to give him time to develop, management needs to give him some actual direction and instruction (seriously, getting shuffled around between levels every 50-60 games can't allow him to become comfortable anywhere) and prospectors need to stop labeling these kids as "the next (insert whatever name is hottest right now so long as both players share the same ethnicity and body type here)" - it's not good for the prospects, the team or overzealous fans.

It wasn't until the last handful of years that players so young were actually "supposed" to be superstars right away. Honestly, if it weren't for the "he's like Mike Trout because of Cedar Rapids" comparisons, Harper succeeding at age 19 or being drafted right after Correa, how many people would be upset that a 22-year-old isn't quite ready to hit a big league breaking ball?

Buxton is STILL a kid with fewer than 850 plate appearances above the A ball level.  Also sure hope that fact that Kepler's home runs are more than his last 2 minor league seasons combined is not a pre-cursor to him following up his rookie season surprise in Danny Santana fashion.  Just sayin

Well, considering Kepler's BABIP is like 135 points lower than Santana's was his rookie year...

Of course, Kepler could fall off an have a slump, but if he does, it'll be for different reasons.

"Back in my day," prospects were given beyond their age 22 season before people started labeling them as busts or suggesting that they nut up or shut up.

 

Seriously, some of the comments on here are absolutely ridiculous.

 

Has he been bad? Yup, he sure has. But he's also insanely young ... he's actually considered very young for the International League at this point.

 

Fans need to give him time to develop, management needs to give him some actual direction and instruction (seriously, getting shuffled around between levels every 50-60 games can't allow him to become comfortable anywhere) and prospectors need to stop labeling these kids as "the next (insert whatever name is hottest right now so long as both players share the same ethnicity and body type here)" - it's not good for the prospects, the team or overzealous fans.

 

It wasn't until the last handful of years that players so young were actually "supposed" to be superstars right away. Honestly, if it weren't for the "he's like Mike Trout because of Cedar Rapids" comparisons, Harper succeeding at age 19 or being drafted right after Correa, how many people would be upset that a 22-year-old isn't quite ready to hit a big league breaking ball?

Yes, some people are frustrated.  Some people have ridiculous beliefs, like believing a #2 draft pick who has been a top 20 prospect for four years straight and a top 2 prospect for three years straight should not be completely and utterly overmatched at the plate.  I'm not sure why it's wrong to hold that player to higher expectations than we would a 5th round player not in the top 100.

It's not that he isn't reaching ridiculous expectations.  He's not meeting the mildest expectations. he doesn't look close to being able to meet even modest expectations.

Oh, and P.S., I doubt too many people truly believed Buxton was the next Trout. Trout is a once in a generation player.  May end up the best player a good chunk of us have ever actually seen play while we were alive and baseball fans.

Buxton was drafted in 2012.

Preseason 2013, after only playing in rookie ball for 48 games in 2012 and not having even reached A Ball, he was listed:

10th by BA.

19th by MLB.

8th by BP.

He has, quite literally, never been out of the top 20 as a prospect in a preseason poll by the big three in which he was a professional player

FWIW, in the 8 games since being sent back to AAA Buxton is hitting .222/.300/.370 in 30 PA with a 1/5 BB/K ratio. 

I think the Kepler vs. Buxton comparison is quite enlightening. It highlights how important plate discipline is for a hitter to have success at the major league level and how much the prospect gurus are willing to overlook such a major flaw in a hitter.

Well, that will be pretty disappointing if he turns into Carlos Gomez. Having a couple very good/great years and getting DFA'ed at the age of 30.

Well, it's better than his current career trajectory.