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Derek Falvey is clearly reluctant to lose a player that could even potentially be an asset for nothing. It seems like each season, we can find examples of the front office being slow to cut bait with guys who seem incapable of contributing to wins. In 2023, it was Joey Gallo taking at bats from guys like Matt Wallner. The following season, it was Manuel Margot who got inexplicable at bats despite being objectively terrible the entire season. On the pitching front, they traded for Jorge Lopez in 2023 and he was…not good, but stuck around too long. The following year, Trevor Richards was the lone trade acquisition during the season. There was no reason to believe he would be good, and he wasn’t.
The latest iteration of this trend is likely to be their handling of James Outman, who they traded Brock Stewart for in the July selloff, and who is out of options. If one assumes that Trevor Larnach and Byron Buxton are still on the team in April, and that Austin Martin showed enough down the stretch to earn a roster spot, then it seems that there is one outfield position remaining until Emmanual Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins are ready to claim it.
That last spot will likely be a battle between James Outman and Alan Roden . If history says anything about the future, then Outman is likely to prevail despite being the worse candidate, simply on the merits of being out of options and having more experience. Let’s look at the two players.
James Outman
Outman, frankly, seems in danger of washing out. In 2023, his first full season, he was worth 3.9 fWAR. That season, he did everything, a lot of it pretty well. He was a plus defender, playing a legitimate center field. He stole 16 bags, hit 23 home runs, and walked 12% of the time. He seemed to be the Dodgers' center fielder of the future. That is, unless you looked under the hood and realized his hitting might be a mirage. He did a great job of pulling the ball in the air, and that was the primary driver of his offensive prowess. In fact, his launch angle sweet spot rate was in the 89th percentile that season. But, his overall hard-hit rate was below average, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile, and he swung through too many pitches, leading to a lot of strikeouts. Those are all yellow flags at best, as he didn’t make enough contact for the pulled balls to carry his offensive game.
Then, starting in 2024, Outman seemingly forgot how to play baseball entirely. Over the past two seasons, he has put up roughly 50% of the production of an average hitter, has stolen a combined three bases, and hit just 10 homers. He’s been a subpar defender despite spending almost as much time in the corners as in center, and has performed poorly in high-leverage situations. His walk rate is down by a third, as well. Looking at his underlying metrics, he has started chasing more, and has lost a bit of bat speed. His strikeout rate has elevated from a quite high 31.9% in 2023 to an untenable 42.6% in 2025. Making matters even worse, the quality of his contact has dropped markedly. Rather than pulling the ball in the air, he’s been pulling it on the ground, which almost always leads to an out. In short, he’s been a mess.
Outman, unlike Roden, does not have age on his side. 2026 will be his age-29 season, and it’s fair to expect some natural decline in the speed and athleticism-related parts of his game. So, if he’s not hitting, not taking walks, not running, and not defending well, then what utility does he offer the Twins? Seriously, I’m asking you, because I can’t find any.
Realistically, it doesn’t seem like the Twins should have traded for Outman in the first place. Knowing their surplus of left-handed outfielders, and the pyrrhic nature of his one good season, it didn’t seem like a good fit at the time. Of course, Stewart immediately got injured, so it may be one of those lose-lose trades. However, the trade itself is a sunk cost. Any investment in Outman at this point is not; it will come at the expense of playing time or a roster spot for younger, better, and higher-upside players.
Alan Roden
Alan Roden, headed into the 2025 season, was ranked the Blue Jays' number five prospect by MLB Pipeline. He had gained significant helium on the strength of a monster 2024 season in which he walked almost as much as he struck out, and had a .314/.406/.510/.916 slash line with Triple-A Buffalo. When the Twins made the unpopular decision to trade Louis Varland for Roden and Kendry Rojas , FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Roden the sixth-best prospect moved at the deadline. He wrote, of Roden, “Recent rookie graduate with plus contact skills, but less power than is ideal for a corner outfielder. Big league-ready platoon bat.”
While he didn’t quite impress in his first taste of big league action, he was roughly a replacement-level player, worth -0.1 fWAR. The former third-round pick was limited to just 153 plate appearances before injuring his hand and ending his season. His walk rate was half his career norm, and his strikeout rate was nearly double. However, there’s almost always an adjustment period for prospects as they get used to major league pitching, particularly with the adjustment from an automated strike zone to a manual one.
Roden very much has a bright future once he learns to hit Major League pitching, and it’s a fairly safe bet he will, since he has hit at every level of the minors. That may happen sooner rather than later. His batting average on balls in play was an unsustainably low .240 in his small 2025 sample, so positive regression should occur once he learns the zone and is able to make higher-quality contact.
At this point, Roden really doesn’t have much to prove at Triple-A. And yet, he seems an odds-on favorite to begin the season there in favor of James Outman. You know why? He can still be optioned, and that probably means he will be.
Hopefully, Derek Falvey has learned from the mistakes made in past seasons and will be quicker to move on from a player that doesn’t have much to offer in favor of a younger one who has plenty of projectability. And hopefully, that move happens in spring training, if not sooner.
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