How Will Sano’s Return Impact the Roster?

I think Cave goes down and stays there until one of the starting three outfielders go down with an injury.  I think Adrianza stays because of his glove as a late inning replacement for Sano at 3B and spot duty in the infield.  

If the starting rotation continues on this pace - I think they can survive with 12 pitchers.   I think adding quality arms to the bullpen and another starter will be the priority.  I believe Keuchel and Kimbrel are both real possibilities if the team has a healthy lead when the compensation picks drop off of the two of them in June.  Falvine would much rather add payroll than trade prospects.     

Adrianza almost certainly has some trade value. Unless he's traded, I doubt he's moved off the roster. Cave has options. Easy call. Austudillo has options. Not so easy call. We have relief options that have options. Low leverage relievers with no options clog the wheel. Find a reliever with no options who's last name starts with "M" and cut.

Some perspective: Adrianza was 28th among shortstops last year with an 82 wRC+. He was 27th by OPS. 31st in WAR.

 

People talk about him like he's a trash heap player. He's not. It's the nature of the depth of middle infielders in the bigs, but people lose sight of that methinks.

31st in WAR as a mostly backup is pretty good. Like basically lower-tier starter. Luxury as a back up. I know Rowson was working with him on swinging out and hitting for more power which would raise his value and ceiling significantly. Early returns were somewhat positive. This year's been a struggle after a fantastic spring. But he's a veteran presence by now. He's a proven, if unspectacular fielder. He'd be a perfect stop gap for a rebuilding team or a nice backup for a contender. He's better than DSan, Florimon, or Juan Castro anyhow... put another way, if we didn't have him, and Gonzo or Polanco got hurt, I'd be very willing to offer something for a him.

Lot’s here think the pitching staff will go to 12 when the second of Sano/Astudillo become available? Why? Seems counter to recent history and trends especially as we get out of the cancellations season and into the makeup season. I’m sceptical that the staff will be 12 for anything other than brief periods going forward. I mean, they want 13 in early May, but will want 12 in June because...it’s become too hard to chose which hitters remain?

Ehire Adrianza has no trade value.

 

Every team has an almost exact copy or two of Adrianza in AAA. If not, they can get one cheap if needed for nothing of any real value.

These types of players are traded all the time. Usually for cash or ptbnl. No one notices because no one cares. There's no reason to cut him if we don't have to imo.

My guess is that Cave is optioned first.  Then if the Twins staff is OK, Romero goes back to Rochester until a 13th pitcher is needed again.  

One other point, I thought from somewhere that position players had a 30 day rehab, so Sano would only have to be here at the end of the month.  That gives more time to sort things out.

Lot’s here think the pitching staff will go to 12 when the second of Sano/Astudillo become available? Why? Seems counter to recent history and trends especially as we get out of the cancellations season and into the makeup season. I’m sceptical that the staff will be 12 for anything other than brief periods going forward. I mean, they want 13 in early May, but will want 12 in June because...it’s become too hard to chose which hitters remain?

Because the starters have been doing a better job getting deeper into games. There is simply no need for 8 relievers. Sure that could change, but right now relievers are being underutilized. The Twins are essentially carrying four relievers for use almost exclusively in extremely low leverage situations: Magill, Harper, Morin and Romero. No decent team needs 4 mop up relievers. True enough that they could use one more high leverage reliever. But they could easily drop 2 of the 4 I mentioned and replace them with one good one (in a perfect world, an effective Addison Reed).

My guess is that Cave is optioned first. Then if the Twins staff is OK, Romero goes back to Rochester until a 13th pitcher is needed again.

One other point, I thought from somewhere that position players had a 30 day rehab, so Sano would only have to be here at the end of the month. That gives more time to sort things out.

20 days for position players. 30 days for pitchers.

Because the starters have been doing a better job getting deeper into games. There is simply no need for 8 relievers. Sure that could change, but right now relievers are being underutilized. The Twins are essentially carrying four relievers for use almost exclusively in extremely low leverage situations: Magill, Harper, Morin and Romero. No decent team needs 4 mop up relievers. True enough that they could use one more high leverage reliever. But they could easily drop 2 of the 4 I mentioned and replace them with one good one (in a perfect world, an effective Addison Reed).

I agree that there are reasonable arguments/reasons/scenarios for a 12-man staff. And hope that that is what happens. But I don't think that will be the decision/outcome...at least not for the majority of the season. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Sano moving up to AAA today. 

What will keep Adrianza around is his 1.3M salary, but players who play at his level either get cut or end up in the minors. If he plays out the year like this it will be his last year in the majors.

Adrianza is a huge success story right now. If this is it for him, he has nothing to be ashamed of. He is clearly very easy to work with because he is still around in spite of never putting up good numbers at any level. Ball clubs like him and he did a serviceable job with the Twins.

As for Sano, though he is hitting well in the minors ... wow, he does not look like he is in shape. We'll see what happens. His value is in his bat and hopefully the Twins will realize that.

Gordon is 3 for 3 in SBs since he's been activated, including 2 last night, including a steal of third base. 80% steal rate in 2018.

 

If Ben Revere is not available, I wonder if Herb Washington is doing anything?

You should never be that systemic with anything and as long as you feel that Stringer meant "Absolutely Equal" playing time for all 12... you will prevent yourself from seeing the sensible reasoning behind what he is saying.

 

Cruz, Garver, Castro, Astudillo, Cron, Sano, Schoop, Polanco, Marwin, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler.

 

12 Players listed above... Who is our worst player and who is our best player? You may have an opinion and I may have an opinion... but If I open up that question to Twins Daily and do a little survey on the subject... I doubt the responses will be unanimous and I imagine the responses will be varied.

 

This should show everyone that the differences between our worst player and our 8th best player is going to be pretty razor thin. Does it makes sense to play Kepler 162 games ranked 8th and Astudillo 0 games ranked 12th... Because maybe Kepler is a hair better at the moment.

 

First off... Is Kepler a hair better?

2nd... You have just killed Astudillo for absolutely no reason at all. When you have a chance of him continuing to produce at a .300 mark and establishing Marwin Gonzalez type value... or a .300 hitter at the catcher position which is as rare as Mike Trout.

 

If Astudillo establishes that type of value... He could be traded for something of value in return. If you don't play Astudillo, he doesn't establish value and you get nothing back when you eventually release him.

 

All 12 of the above names don't deserve consistent bench time, they have value to the team currently regarding wins and losses and can increase in value for future acquisitions via trade. However... a player can only increase in value unless he gets playing time.

 

Having a hard cap(this player is a smidge better than this player) just throws 3 potential (25%) future and current value slots into the garbage.

 

This is why you need a roster of 25 players who the manager will play. Not playing someone on your roster is a waste.

The whole fact that we are talking about our depth makes me smile. One point I would like to make about Adrianza is this. Some players would never be the same for any other team. Case in point Brian Dozier. On the other side of the spectrum, David Ortiz. Adrianza is who he is, a smart team player that is happy to do anything asked to help his team win. We could do worse. If he had any options he would prolly already be gone. But he doesnt. Until Gordon or anybody else can take Polanco or Schoop's job Ehire will be on our bench. Only Rocco and the FO knows why. but, #13 is okay with me

I think Cave goes down and stays there until one of the starting three outfielders go down with an injury. I think Adrianza stays because of his glove as a late inning replacement for Sano at 3B and spot duty in the infield.

 

If the starting rotation continues on this pace - I think they can survive with 12 pitchers. I think adding quality arms to the bullpen and another starter will be the priority. I believe Keuchel and Kimbrel are both real possibilities if the team has a healthy lead when the compensation picks drop off of the two of them in June. Falvine would much rather add payroll than trade prospects.