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  • How Do National Outlets View the 2023 Twins?


    Cody Christie

    Many national outlets are publishing their predictions for the 2023 season, which can give fans an overarching view of the hometown nine. So, how do national outlets view the 2023 Twins?

    Image courtesy of William Parmeter

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    Minnesota hasn’t won the AL Central since 2020, and the team has undergone an overhaul the last two seasons. Many veteran pieces that helped the club win back-to-back division titles are gone, so there are questions about how the team will perform during the upcoming campaign. Here’s what national writers say about the Twins, which naturally includes some good and some bad. 

    The Athletic 
    The Twins received votes in the category of being one of baseball’s most underrated teams, but the White Sox and the Guardians were also on the list. When picking the division winner, the Twins finished with 29% of the vote in second place behind the Guardians (54.8%). This position seems like an appropriate spot for the Twins, with Cleveland coming off a season where they won the division by more than ten games. Dan Connolly thinks Carlos Correa will be playing with “a monumental chip on his shoulder,” which could be exciting for Twins fans to watch.

    ESPN
    Fifteen of the 28 ESPN writers believe the Guardians will win the AL Central. Chicago finished with the second most votes (7 votes), and Minnesota was third (6 votes). Their write-up focused on how the White Sox can catch the Guardians in the division and didn’t mention the Twins, even though they finished one vote behind Chicago. Minnesota received two votes to be an AL Wild Card team, one more than the White Sox. It seems unlikely that any AL Central teams will accumulate enough wins to earn a Wild Card spot, so the Twins will need to win the division to qualify for the playoffs. 

    Sporting News
    The Sporting News uses a projection model to predict the standings of every MLB division. According to their model, Cleveland projects to win the division with an 84-78 record. Minnesota is second with an 82-80 record, and the White Sox finish one game behind the Twins. SN said, “It’s hard not to see the upside in Minnesota.” They believe in the starting pitching staff and some young position players that will be added to the current core. Like many outlets, predicting how injuries will impact the Twins is hard. Their writers believe Cleveland will significantly outperform their projected win total, which might make it hard for the Twins to keep pace at the top of the division. 

    MLB.com
    MLB.com doesn’t mention the Twins in their division winner predictions because their writers believe the division belongs to Cleveland. Their writers feel that the Guardians will use the same formula as 2022, with strong starting pitching and a high-contact offensive approach. Minnesota also doesn’t figure into their AL Wild Card discussion, with Seattle, Toronto, and Tampa projected to qualify for those spots. In MLB.com’s awards preview, Rocco Baldelli received votes as a candidate for AL Manager of the Year. However, nearly every contending team’s manager received some votes. 

    CBS Sports
    CBS Sports might have the highest view of the Twins from any national outlet, with three of their six writers picking them to win the division. All six of their writers have the Twins in first or second place in the division. Maybe this is more of a sign of them not believing in the White Sox, who finished third on every ballot. Only one of their writers has the Twins as a Wild Card team, but that has more to do with much of the group believing they will win the division. 

    FanGraphs
    Out of 27 FanGraphs writers, 12 picked the Twins to win the AL Central with 12 votes going to the Guardians and three going to White Sox. The Twins also received two votes as the final AL Wild Card spot, so 14 of their writers believe they will qualify for the postseason. Surprisingly, four of their writers believe the Twins will be the number two overall seed in the American League. 

    USA Today
    Only one USA Today writer has the Twins making the playoffs. Jesse Yomtov lists the Twins as his third AL Wild Card team behind the Rays and the Mariners. Five of their seven writers have Cleveland winning the division, with the other two voting for Chicago. 

    Who’s projections will be the most accurate? What do the Twins need to do to beat the odds? Is there a chance for an AL Central team to qualify as a Wild Card? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    Nothing shocking here.  If Cleveland continues to progress, the Guardians are an obvious pick.  The question is whether they can make that happen.  The Sox tend to overperform the expectations about once every five years and underperform the other four, so they are getting their usual (too much) respect.  I know they have some good pitchers and potentially star offensive players, but I just don’t see it.  
    The Twins will almost always fly under the radar everywhere but in the upper Midwest, so it’s not a surprise. The national press knows that Correa signed here and that Arraez was traded but the rest of the details are fuzzy — it’s always that way with the Chicago writers at least (plus they always refer to the Twins as “pesky”,).   
    Will the Twins exceed the middling expectations?  I’d like to think so but that’s why we play the games!   

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    IMHO the reason why so many journalists predict that the Guardians will win the Division is because there's a perception that Terry Franconia is the better manager. Last year he was named AL Manager of the Year for the 3rd time in his career, & the Guards had the most come from behind victories in MLB with 29. He has a better track record & now it's up to Rocco to show that he can be the better manager.

    If Franconia was the Twins manager they would have probably received more 1st place votes than the Guards . 

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    Perhaps people vote for Cleveland because Francona is the best manager in baseball. I would never argue that point. I do think Cleveland is a really good baseball club and they do benefit from recency bias having won last season.

    However, many writers do not have a very strong understanding of some critical Twins players who fly under the radar. The Twins starting staff is pretty good and mostly acknowledged. What is overlooked is the talent in the arms of Alcala, Jax, Thielbar, and Moran in support of J. Lopez and Duran. Additionally, the Twins have depth on the roster with help on the way in the youth of Lewis, Julien, Ober, Varland, and Wallner. Not all of the young pups will be stars but I'm pretty confident in their abilities to support the current roster. Finally, we hope for a  return of two very strong baseball players in Polanco and Kirilloff. The Twins may have some rough moments but there are some guys who can step up this year and bring the AL Central flag back to Target Field.

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    So what I'm reading here is CBS and FANGRAPHS have the smarter writers, yes? :)

    Not surprising ESPN would just gloss over any mention of the Twins. Maybe I'm jaded, but it always feels they dismiss Minnesota teams out of hand.

    I think Cleveland is a good ballclub. I liked their addition of Bell. I'm not sold on their depth or their offense yet. (Of course, I still have questions about the Twins offense as well). All those come from behind victories and the 1st or 2nd healthiest team in all of MLB, if I recall correctly. That's asking a lot to duplicate. 

    IMO, the biggest question for our Twins is the offense. I know there are a lot of IF's involved: can Gallo rebound, can Kepler show some improvement, can Polanco get right soon and be his normal self, can Larnach stay healthy and continue to shine when so, will Kiriloff really and truly be good to go now, how much do Lewis and Julien contribute when up? But not every IF has to come through in dramatic fashion for this to be a quality offense. 

     I don’t buy in to the scheduling changes as a pro or con to anyone. I'm standing by my prediction of around 88 wins with a shot at 92 if a few things break right.

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    I'm not surprised that the national sports media doesn't think much of the Twins.  They haven't for years.  I think the Twins can win the division and win a playoff game this year.  My hesitation is that yes there are way to many " ifs" with the team.  I'm beginning to worry more and more about our anemic offense.  Other than Polanco that's injured many of those that are injured and were injured last year need to play and shi something.  For example for all the raving we hear about Kirilloff we haven't seen enough of him to see if he can really help the club.  Others also really haven't proven much to believe they are going to make a big difference.  Yes they could make a difference but other than Polanco no one has really proven anything.  I'm still sticking to my estimate of 82-85 wins.  I was so happy to see Rocco used the same starting lineup two days in a row!!

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    13 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

    I'm not surprised that the national sports media doesn't think much of the Twins.  They haven't for years.  I think the Twins can win the division and win a playoff game this year.  My hesitation is that yes there are way to many " ifs" with the team.  I'm beginning to worry more and more about our anemic offense.  Other than Polanco that's injured many of those that are injured and were injured last year need to play and shi something.  For example for all the raving we hear about Kirilloff we haven't seen enough of him to see if he can really help the club.  Others also really haven't proven much to believe they are going to make a big difference.  Yes they could make a difference but other than Polanco no one has really proven anything.  I'm still sticking to my estimate of 82-85 wins.  I was so happy to see Rocco used the same starting lineup two days in a row!!

    My hope is (understand your point) that Kiriloff can relieve us of the need for Gallo to start. If Kiriloff hits a woeful .240, (with a .310 OBP) it’s an upside v. Gallo at 1B!

    Seen it for two days and he doesn’t appear to have any confidence nor a clue in the batter’s box………….walk, fly out to the track, hit a sharp grounder to 1B, …..please show us something Joey!

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    I agree that national publications give Minnesota no love at all.  Another good example is the Athletic released their updated power rankings for the NHL this week and the Wild barely made the top 10.  16-2-4 in their last 22 games and leading their division, and the Athletic ranked them ninth overall (and four spots below a team in their own division).

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    On 4/1/2023 at 3:50 PM, sun said:

    IMHO the reason why so many journalists predict that the Guardians will win the Division is because there's a perception that Terry Franconia is the better manager. Last year he was named AL Manager of the Year for the 3rd time in his career, & the Guards had the most come from behind victories in MLB with 29. He has a better track record & now it's up to Rocco to show that he can be the better manager.

    If Franconia was the Twins manager they would have probably received more 1st place votes than the Guards . 

    Rocco will never be a better manager than Francona.

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