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    Commitment Issues

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    On Monday, the Twins officially released Kevin Jepsen following a miserable first half. The timing of the move is painful, coming one day after Chih-Wei Hu – the 22-year-old pitching prospect dealt for Jepsen last July – flashed outstanding stuff in the All Star Futures Game.

    Many will dwell on how bad the trade now looks. Few would have done so at the end of last September. But there is a valuable takeaway here, and it's one that this organization should already have taken away.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today

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    Hu always had the makings of a nice young pitcher so it's no surprise to see him succeeding in Tampa's system. But Jepsen was also an accomplished veteran reliever with strong numbers, and you have to give up something to get something. It's not like Hu was an elite young talent by any stretch.

    Would Terry Ryan have needed to part with a prospect of even Hu's caliber, though, if he were merely acquiring a two-month rental of similar ability? Not a chance. The Twins had to step up their offer in order to bring in a player who remained under team control for an additional season.

    Jepsen's drastic drop-off, from sheer brilliance in 2015 to utter ineptitude in 2016, serves as a reminder that relief pitchers are extremely volatile assets. That is why it makes little sense to pay extra for added commitment.

    This misstep is made more frustrating because it's a lesson that the Twins have already learned the hard way, and also because it's completely inconsistent with the way Ryan operates otherwise.

    At the trade deadline in 2010, Minnesota was on the lookout for an established closer as they geared up for a postseason run. Bill Smith infamously gave up catching prospect Wilson Ramos in exchange for Nationals reliever Matt Capps.

    Ramos was a prized prospect at a high-value position, and seemed like a high price to pay for a good-not-great closer. But the appeal of Capps, and the factor that undoubtedly swayed Smith to surrender Ramos, was the extra year of control. The Twins didn't really know what to expect from Joe Nathan in 2011, when he'd be freshly rehabbed from Tommy John surgery, so they sought added stability in the late innings.

    The way things played out was essentially a mirror image of what we just witnessed with Jepsen. Capps did his part down the stretch in 2010, filling a key role in the bullpen, but was an unreliable mess the following year. This kind of fluctuation isn't uncommon. Again, relief pitchers are volatile.

    That trade is now widely viewed as the worst in modern franchise history, since the Twins are bereft of long-term catching options whereas Ramos appeared in last night's All-Star Game. Now, Ryan has fallen into the same trap, albeit to a lesser degree.

    Clearly, Jepsen's extended control was attractive as the GM looked ahead at an uncertain 2016 bullpen picture. Ryan may have had some inklings about the issues that were beginning to plague Glen Perkins, as well.

    But the proper approach would have been to pick up a true rental, which would demand a lower return, and regroup in the offseason. There, the trade market is less driven by timing and leverage, while free agents are also available.

    This brings me to the part that is most irksome. Throughout his tenure, Ryan has consistently eschewed the high-end free agent reliever market, and the reason is always the same. It's not the money, it's the term. He doesn't like making multi-year contract commitments to relief pitchers, given their mercurial nature. Hey, it makes sense. But if that's the mindset, why are you willing to give up prospects – a far more valuable commodity than money – in exchange for that very same thing?

    This costly inconsistent thinking stands out as a major blemish for the Twins front office. Mistakes happen, but they shouldn't happen twice.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    I don't think we can really say the Capps trade got us to the playoffs.  He was with us for two months, had only 27 appearances for us (only 27 innings), and we won the division by 6 games. No way the difference between Rauch and Capps for 27 innings equates to 6 wins.

     

    Also, at the time of the trade (4 months into a 6 month season), we had lost one game in which Rauch had been brought in to get a save.  One game.

    Edited by jimmer
    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 44,062

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

    I was meh on the trade when it happened. There was upside in Jepsen and he performed well in 2015.

     

    With that said, Nick has a valid point. Why is Ryan willing to give up Hu AND Tapia for Jepsen but unwilling to sign a reliever to a three year deal in the offseason?

     

    There's a cognitive dissonance in that approach and it really bothers me. As Nick pointed out, prospects are the most valuable currency in baseball, even more than cash.

    Rosterman

    Rosterman 4,525

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    We can argue all we want about the Ramos trade. It was a surprise, and even the throw-in of Joe Testa was more than enough for an okay possible closer (who still had contract left). 

     

    But, yes, Ramos was blocked. And the Twins would've done the up-down with him for at least another season and then made him a backup and there was probably hope that the Twins would actually have another catcher in the wings by the time Mauer left fulltime behind-the-plate in 2016 or 2017 or 2018 (we had Pinto in the mix at one point - who is doing a-ok in the Brewers system right now). 

     

    I don't really have a handle on how the Twins do teach.train.view their prospects. They seem to spend a lot of time in the lowly minors and then get a shot at AA, but the AAA roster always seems full of...dare I say...fodder.

     

    I see the Twins carefully bring guys thru the system (again, to AA) and then they end up not going anywhere in the organization, or even baseball. 

     

    At what point DO YOU make the call on a prospect. That they are just playing ball for you in the minors or truly will be given a good hard shot at the majors...and more than a quick call-up and then demotion. Especially when you see how anxious the Twins are to play those guys they grab from the cuts of other systems and give them a chance and playing time: Grossman, Kintzler, Boyer, Abad,  Fryer, Bernier, Centeno, Mastro, Boshers, Pressly, Graham, Ramirez, Pino, Martis, Perdomo, Vasquez, Marquis, Carson, Burroughs, Komatsu, Roenicke, Deduno, Walters, Thomas, Burton, Schafer, Neil Ramirez, Schafer, Robinson, Cotts, Thompson, Fuld, COlabello, Thielbar,,,and Mr. Nunez.

     

    That's a lot of names in five years that the Twins turned to rather than young guys in their system that they drafted and were developing for major league play. More so that people that they brought north in the past five (mostly) dismal years to fill the lineup from the guys who scout high school and colleges. Maybe the Twins JUST need to skip the draft and turn all their scouting to discards from other teams.

     

    Or maybe your sole reason for having "prospects" is to trade for good pieces, but not necessarily the best or what you really need to go forth into playoff land if and when that time rolls around.

     

    And then we can have the whole argument about hanging onto players too long and getting nothing in return: Kubel, Cuddyer, Nathan, Willingham, Delmon Young, Fien and Burton. It is a two-way street. You make your players available for pieces that you are missing in your own system (right now, catcher fer sure) and deal accordingly. You should be dangling Abad out there for a promising catcher who is blocked at the major league level for another team -- if that team is foolish enough to see that their own catcher won't be playing behind-the-plate for five more years and they may suddenly need this top prospect sooner rather than never.

     

    I'm still just feeling the "total system failure" happening. The attitude that we will try to put a competitive team on the field for the least amount of money, market the heck out of an outdoor stadium that gives the "fan experience" to watching a game played, and the hopes that people will buy into the sport of baseball as fun, and not as a need to win-it-all, or at least show a need to try to win-it-all above and beyond telling people we are doing so.

     

    Looking forward to the second half. But someone/s do have take a fall for what happened in the first half.

    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 44,062

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    If I remember correctly, Capps at the time had very similar numbers to Jon Rauch.  I remember saying to myself that they just traded for a guy they already had.

    Capps was slightly better but, yes, you are correct that the Twins picked up something resembling a clone of what they already had on the roster.

     

    And they gave up a pretty solid top 100 prospect for the honor.

     

    I don't think I've screamed as much about a trade as it happened as I did during that trade... Though I also hated the Young/Garza trade... Not because I expected Young to tank but because losing Santana AND Garza in the same offseason meant the rotation was, to be generous, not awesome.

    Steve Lein

    Steve Lein 4,247

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted (edited)

     

    While very good, that's not even the best use of a Metallica song for entrance music.  That distinction belongs to a certain closer that went by the moniker "The Sandman."

     

    I agree. But the whole experience of the video on the board and the song, was awesome. A packed Target Field when Rauch entered the game gave you chills.

     

    Glen Perkins entering the game never had that same feel, even though he was a far better closer.

    Edited by Steve Lein
    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    We can argue all we want about the Ramos trade. It was a surprise, and even the throw-in of Joe Testa was more than enough for an okay possible closer (who still had contract left). 

     

    But, yes, Ramos was blocked. And the Twins would've done the up-down with him for at least another season and then made him a backup and there was probably hope that the Twins would actually have another catcher in the wings by the time Mauer left fulltime behind-the-plate in 2016 or 2017 or 2018 (we had Pinto in the mix at one point - who is doing a-ok in the Brewers system right now).

    Ramos was not making any money at all and our 3rd best prospect, and the Twins had doubts about Pinto catching. History tells me when thaey have doubts about a catcher or SS defensively, they never play there.

     

    In 2011 Mauer was 28, with seven more seasons at $23m per year. The prudent thing would have been to give Ramos 30% of the reps starting in 2011 or 2012 as Mauer was transitioned away from catcher.

     

    Just an ounce of foresight would have prevented this.

    wsnydes

    wsnydes 15,971

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    I agree. But the whole experience of the video on the board and the song, was awesome. A packed Target Field when Rauch entered the game gave you chills.

     

    Glen Perkins entering the game never had that same feel, even though he was a far better closer.

    I always enjoyed Perkin's use of Johnny Cash's God's Gonna Cut You Down.  

     

    Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs 27,912

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    A damning quote, and one I think is quite accurate.

     

    I also thought the 2015 Twins were playing over their head the entire year. It was fun, but as has been mentioned here several times, it was also possibly the worst thing that could have happened to them.

     

    I didn't like trading for a player like Jepsen. I didn't like that it was Hu whom was given up. Worked out well for one year, but it was the wrong year.

     

    I'm generally the prospect guy, and don't like trading prospects, but as much as I hated giving up Hu, I get that you have to give up something to get something.

     

    Jepsen has been a 'solid' MLB reliever for several years. I get that the Twins played above their heads most of last year, however, they had a shot to make the playoffs, so I can't criticize going after a bullpen arm. Even if they didn't make the playoffs, they were in the race until the final weekend. If this and If that, but they had a real playoff shot last year, even if it wasn't "real" in many people's eyes. They didn't give up one of their top 10 pitchers or top 5-7 pitching prospects to get it. 

    Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs 27,912

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    Capps was slightly better but, yes, you are correct that the Twins picked up something resembling a clone of what they already had on the roster.

     

    And they gave up a pretty solid top 100 prospect for the honor.

     

    I don't think I've screamed as much about a trade as it happened as I did during that trade... Though I also hated the Young/Garza trade... Not because I expected Young to tank but because losing Santana AND Garza in the same offseason meant the rotation was, to be generous, not awesome.

     

    That was the only trade that I really, really was "upset" about. I didn't like the Hu/Jepsen trade, but taking a step back, it wasn't horrible. Ramos was easily a top 100 guy, a catcher no less, who had enough bat to DH and allow Mauer more time at DH, and he had already had some quality big league success, even if only 8-10 games. In other words, he was pretty much ready. 

    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 44,062

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    The prudent thing would have been to give Ramos 30% of the reps starting in 2011 or 2012 as Mauer was transitioned away from catcher.

    Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's not shoot for the moon here.

     

    I would have been happy with "trade Ramos for a guy who isn't a middling relief pitcher".

    Steve Lein

    Steve Lein 4,247

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

     

    I'm generally the prospect guy, and don't like trading prospects, but as much as I hated giving up Hu, I get that you have to give up something to get something.

     

    Jepsen has been a 'solid' MLB reliever for several years. I get that the Twins played above their heads most of last year, however, they had a shot to make the playoffs, so I can't criticize going after a bullpen arm. Even if they didn't make the playoffs, they were in the race until the final weekend. If this and If that, but they had a real playoff shot last year, even if it wasn't "real" in many people's eyes. They didn't give up one of their top 10 pitchers or top 5-7 pitching prospects to get it. 

     

    Don't disagree with any of that, really. It did work out as well as one could hope for the rest of the year, but it just was a move that sat between "unnecessary" and "not enough to matter" to me.

    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    That was the only trade that I really, really was "upset" about. I didn't like the Hu/Jepsen trade, but taking a step back, it wasn't horrible. Ramos was easily a top 100 guy, a catcher no less, who had enough bat to DH and allow Mauer more time at DH, and he had already had some quality big league success, even if only 8-10 games. In other words, he was pretty much ready.

    The Giants have done with Posey what we should have done. In the 27-29 range, they have Posey catching just over 100 games and playing first about 40 times (DH in the AL parks). They have Susac in AAA and a backup with a .680 OPS. They could have easily traded either their current backup (.680 OPS) or Susac who is in AAA for a reliever.

    Edited by tobi0040
    ThejacKmp

    ThejacKmp 2,978

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    The Twins were always going to trade Ramos since they understandably thought that it was a position of strength given the presence of one of the all-time greats at the position. People had a concept that they would eventually move Mauer to 1B or 3B or somewhere but it was expected that move was years away and that it would be a slow transition. Concussions are the worst. Ramos needed to play everyday so he became trade bait (same thing may happen to Polanco if the Twins remain committed to Dozier).

     

    So it's not trading Ramos that is the issue, it's the fact that all they got was Fat Craps for him. Stupid Fat Craps.

    Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs 27,912

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    The Giants have done with Posey what we should have done. In the 27-29 range, they have Posey catching just over 100 games and playing first about 40 times (DH in the AL parks). They have Susac in AAA and a backup with a .680 OPS. They could have easily traded either their current backup (.680 OPS) or Susac who is in AAA for a reliever.

     

    I wrote several articles on how Ramos and Mauer could co-exist. 

     

    Here's one, though I know I wrote about it several times: http://www.startribune.com/how-can-ramos-make-the-roster/89545302/

     

    ThejacKmp

    ThejacKmp 2,978

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Also, while I have loved Chih-Wei Hu for years and was sad to see him leave, his upside is #3 starter right? And more likely he's a back of the rotation starter? It's sad that Jepsen fell apart but I don't think this is a "this will haunt the Twins" trade, more of a "oh well, we took a shot and came up on the short end of the stick" trade.

    ashbury

    ashbury 60,817

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Hated hated hated the trade at the time. Hang on to your starting pitching prospects; you can always convert some of them to relief when the time comes. Trading prospects for any but the best relievers at the deadline is a mug's game.

    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 38,050

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    Jepsen's 2015 in TB wasn't particularly good. His K rate was plummeting and his walk rate, FIP and WHIP were all rising. He had one really nice year in LA and a couple pretty good ones.

     

    The Twins struck gold when he put on a career best performance for them last year, but he had no track record of that kind of pitching prior and he was on the wrong side of 30. At the time of the trade the Twins really should have had no illusions about what kind of pitcher he was and where his numbers were trending.

     

    I mean in isolation, if his ERA had matched his FIP of 4.19 along with the high 4.3 BB/9 and the poor-for-a-reliever 7.3K/9, wouldn't he look closer to a DFA candidate than a get-another-team's-top-15-prospect candidate?

    ThejacKmp

    ThejacKmp 2,978

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    I think there should also be some criticism around succession planning at the catcher position.

    It should have been apparent that Mauer was not going to be catching at 31/32 with that contract obligation. So the lack of investment in that position is the real issue. That leads folks to defend the signing of Suzuki because we had no other options.

     

    I don't know that you can say that it should be apparent that Mauer wouldn't be able to catch at 31/32. There are tons of catchers still active at that age. They don't tend to be as good but Mauer as a catcher was amazing (if he was a catcher right now, no one would be complaining about his hitting, he'd be a very good option at catcher). He suddenly and unexpectedly couldn't catch and I think it's hard to blame the Twins for not being ready for this - you can't prepare for everything. Trading Ramos made sense for a team with eyes on the postseason - they just needed to get more than Fat Craps. Stupid Bill Smith.

     

    I also don't think you can say the Twins haven't invested in the position - they have, it just hasn't turned out perfectly, which happens in a world where we don't have the benefit of hindsight. The Twins have drafted some high-upside catchers in Garver and Turner who have taken some time (as catchers tend to). They also had Pinto* set up and concussions and fielding issues just never quite put him into the mix on the MLB level. The Twins even traded for JRM - it hasn't worked (yet) but was the right move to make. They didn't do the stupid thing and go sign a Russell Martin (woof to that contract BTW - a warning sign about pursuing Ramos this offseason). Suzuki hasn't been amazing but he's been an okay stop gap and likely worth the money invested as he has certainly better over the past three or four years than anyone else in his pay slot on the free market.

     

    Catcher is a probably the hardest position to be set at (maybe shortstop too?) so sometimes you have trouble with it. I like (but don't love) the future options for the position and understand the reasonable moves that left the Twins in this position. It happens, we'll be better in the future.

     

    * Was looking at Pinto because I'd forgotten about him. He's tearing it up in AAA for the Brewers (.965 OPS with lots of doubles) but only catching about half the time, playing first the rest. I don't know if that's a catching depth thing or a "he's not much more than an emergency backup catcher" type thing. Would love to see him do well, always enjoyed the way he played.



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