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    Seth Stohs

    At the beginning of this month, I projected the Twins Opening Day roster. When spring training begins, I’ll update that list. There are few questions marks in the roster. The fifth starter job will be up for grabs as well as a couple of bullpen spots. However, the centerfield job will certainly be one to watch.

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    We know that Torii Hunter will be starting in right field. Oswaldo Arcia will make the move over to left field, but centerfield remains a question.

    The Twins did not address the position in the offseason, at least not in a big, obvious way. This leads me to what I believe to be Plan A.

    Plan A: Third Time’s The Charm

    I am of the belief that the Twins brass wants Aaron Hicks to have a strong spring training and take the reins on the starting job. That’s what he did in 2013. In 2014, he beat out Alex Presley for the starting centerfield job. In fact, the Twins DFA'd Presley near the end of spring training, meaning that there really wasn’t a backup plan for 2014. In fact, when Hicks was sent back to the minor leagues, the Twins tried Eduardo Escobar in centerfield for a game before the job was given to Danny Santana, who ran with it.

    Hicks will be just 25 years old throughout the 2014 season. That isn’t necessarily young, but I wonder if some think he might be older after being given the opportunity the last two seasons. He has never been a great hitter in the minor leagues, but in a good year, he can fill a stat sheet. He has all the tools to be good. Even in a poor 2014 season, he posted a .341 on-base percentage.

    It’s possible, so the team does have to have a Plan B, too.

    Plan B: Fourth Outfielder Platoon

    Jordan Schafer is going to be on the roster. If Aaron Hicks is the starter, Schafer is the fourth outfielder. If Aaron Hicks is sent to the minor leagues, Schafer gets a lot more playing time.

    The 28 year old was DFA'd last year after hitting just .163 in 80 at bats over 63 games for Atlanta. The Twins swooped in and claimed him. He was given regular playing time and showed what he could do. He hit .285/.345/.362 (.707) with seven extra base hits. The speedster combined to steal 30 bases over the course of the season.

    Schafer would be the primary starter. As a left-handed hitter, there would likely be a right-hand hitting option to play centerfield against southpaws. This offseason, the Twins signed 30-year-old outfielder Shane Robinson to a minor league contract. In parts of five seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, he hit .231/.303/.308 in 452 plate appearances.

    The biggest tool that Schafer and Robinson have is their speed. Both play very good defense which will be important because of the perceived lack of range in the corners. There may not be much offense, but these two could play very solid defense in the outfield.

    Plan C: The Long-Shot

    2014 was a rough season for Eddie Rosario. It began late due to a 50-game suspension for a second positive test for a drug of abuse. After eight games with the Miracle, he was quickly moved up to New Britain. He hit just .243/.286/.387 (.674) with 20 doubles, three homers and eight RBI with the Rock Cats.

    However, he was sent back to the Arizona Fall League and was one of the league’s best hitters. He hit .330 with four doubles and two triples. He had four hits including a home run in the AFL championship game. He played left field most of the season, but he is fully capable of playing center field.

    If Hicks struggles in spring training, and Rosario tears it up and looks and acts ready, this could happen. As mentioned in this section's header, it would be a long shot, but it is worth watching.

    Plan D: The Fall Back Plan

    If the Twins coaches, manager and front office feel that what is best for Aaron Hicks (and Eddie Rosario) is to go back to the minor leagues, and the Twins aren’t comfortable with giving regular at bats to Jordan Schafer, there is one other plan. If the team wants to start the season with their best lineup (and they don’t feel that Hicks gives them that right away), we could see Danny Santana return to centerfield with Eduardo Escobar remaining the primary shortstop.

    Although he had played very little outfield in the minor leagues, Danny Santana came up with the Twins and ended up playing doing an adequate job in the outfield and hit far better than his minor league track record indicated that he should have.

    At the same time, Eduardo Escobar put together a very solid season. In 133 total games, he hit .275/.315/.406 (.721) with 37 doubles, a triple and a home run. He played very good defense as well, something that isn’t certain with Santana. Escobar has been basically pigeon-holed into the idea that he is “just” a utility infielder. Obviously that role is very important to a team, and yet we forget that he just turned 26 years old. He could possibly be a legit starting shortstop in the big leagues.

    Center field will be a center of attention throughout spring training. It is an important position defensively, and any offense will be a bonus from the position.

    Byron Buxton needs more time to shake off the rust from last season and perform in the upper levels of the minor leagues. He could be up by July, or it could be in 2016.

    So the questions for you are:

    1.) What do you think
    should
    happen at the position?

    2.) What do you think
    will
    happen at the position?

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    Wasn't there a post about defense on TD a while back that stated that Shafer was just average in CF?  He was slightly above average in R and LF, but just average in CF.   Throw in the fact he has never hit (despite his limited at bats with the Twins), well I just feel like it's a foregone conclusion that having any combination of Hicks/Shafer in CF is just not going to work.

    I read through these options again and I just can't help but think this position is going to implode this team's chances.  I hope I'm wrong, but it's such a critical spot for this team as it is composed and the options are just dreadful.

    Our CF options are a likely first round bust (Hicks), a 4th/5th OF talent (Schaefer), a shortstop (Santana) or a IF/OF hybrid who has twice failed a drug test (Rosario).

     

    Problematic at best, especially when you consider the statues manning the corners. Not that our OF defense is really been bad or anything:-)

    I've brought up the fact that Kepler's AFL OPS was better than Rosario's several times. I think Rosario is closer to big league ready than Kepler. Both have plenty to prove yet before they really are ready. 

     

    And yes, we want Rosario to be better than he was last year. He's not going to walk, so he'll have to hit for average. I think he's natural-enough of a hitter to be able to do that. I'll give him some benefit of the doubt for the missed time and some of the stuff that he was doing to himself. 2015 can be a do-over, at least for me, and I think he can move up and succeed. 

     

    Kepler's problems have been injury-related. He also was a lot more raw when he signed, so patience was more important with him. I definitely believe in his bat. He can (and has) played centerfield, but I don't think he'd cover nearly the ground that Rosario could. 

    I think the case for Rosario is based mostly on his history.  And his offense throughout his minor league is far better than Kepler's.  

    I would also say Rosario has as much of a basis to win the starting job out of spring training this year as Hicks did in 2013, at least offensively.  He actually has a much better track record that Hicks did.  

    And if mentoring can really be beneficial, perhaps the pupil should be Eddie Rosario, not Hicks.  If Torii is supposed to show guys how to go about their business, how to be professional, how to conduct yourself off the field as well as on, Rosario could be a huge benefactor.

    Escobar .275 + Santana .319 = 594 

    Santana .319 + Hicks .215 = 534

    Santana + Escobar = good hustle, work ethic, defense, base running

     

    My vote is Escobar SS, Santana CF, Hicks AAA = best starting point to the season and then go from there based on Hicks being Hicks or Hicks developing.

    I think a lot of those times an interviewer comes up and asks a young player about a veteran player's contribution for a story or some part of a story they are doing about the veteran and what are the young players going to say? We've seen Hunter get in fights with players in the dugout, is that leadership? Some seem to think so.  I don't think it is and when a guy like Hunter takes on a guy like Pujols, I definitely question it. I think Hunter TALKS a good game.  He definitely loves the spotlight. He likes to do things old timers view as leadership.  Whether it is actual leadership or not is debatable.  As far as what those young guys really think about the veteran is anyone's guess.  I doubt the young guy is going to say, 'Nah, I don't really get much from Hunter, except how to NOT do a press conference.' 

     

    Well, the thing is, Torii Hunter back when, talked about how Kirby took him under his wing as a mentor, and because of that he thought it was his duty to do the same for the next CF, who was Denard Span. It became a thing among the CF's in the Twins organization, that they made sure they helped the next guy coming up. Span then did it with Revere. I don't dismiss the 'mentor' aspect at all, I think It's quite real in Torii's case..

    Well, the thing is, Torii Hunter back when, talked about how Kirby took him under his wing as a mentor, and because of that he thought it was his duty to do the same for the next CF, who was Denard Span. It became a thing among the CF's in the Twins organization, that they made sure they helped the next guy coming up. Span then did it with Revere. I don't dismiss the 'mentor' aspect at all, I think It's quite real in Torii's case..

    I am aware of the story we've all been told. it's a good story, for sure.

    I am aware of the story we've all been told. it's a good story, for sure.

     

    But he was reportedly a mentor to Trout as well.

     

    I wasn't in favor of the Hunter signing but I do think the Twins brass and staff were in a good position to make a determination on that question. 

    But he was reportedly a mentor to Trout as well.

     

    I wasn't in favor of the Hunter signing but I do think the Twins brass and staff were in a good position to make a determination on that question. 

    They also made the determination that he was a good defender and could go play some CF for a few games as well :-)

     

    There seems to be many of you convinced he has a huge affect in that manner, so let's hope you all are right.  I'm pretty sure Trout ends up being BA no matter what.

     

    In any event, seems we could have waited a couple more years and signed him as a coach and gotten the same thing for about 9.5M less. :-)

    Edited by jimmer

    This would be the prudent option.  But the Hunter signing tells me the job is Hicks.

     

    Yes, I see no reason to bring in Hunter if not for the specific reason of mentoring Hicks-y (and also Buxton).

     

    I also read that Rod Carew has been working with Aaron in the last few days. That tells me the Twins have their mind made up.

    For all his warts, Hicks does get on base pretty well.

     

    ....

     

    It amazes me that Hicks has so little pop in his bat and I imagine it has to do with him not feeling right at the plate.

    I think the high OBP and the low AVG/SLG are probably related.  His approach lends itself to working a few walks at the expense of good contact.  I think we're going to see that OBP drop, either by virtue of Hicks changing his approach or by pitchers increasingly exploiting that contact weakness.  I hope its the former, and he recovers enough AVG/SLG to make it worthwhile.

    For AL players with 225 or more plate appearances (that was 168 guys in the AL last year), Hicks was 8th in pitches per plate appearance.  

     

    Additionally, Parmellee was 7th, Willingham was 10th, Mauer was 14th and Dozier was 16th.

     

    I chose 225 or more PAs as my starting point because Hicks had 225 PAs.

    Edited by jimmer

    I'm starting Schafer in CF.  He's got the defense and has shown that with AB's, he can hit.

    Not sure if you are aware, but Schafer had over 1000 AB in Atlanta and Houston before coming to Minnesota.  And the vast majority of it was not as a bench player -- he didn't hit the bench until he was 26 and in his 4th MLB season, about 900 PA into his career.  And he batted .221 with a 66 OPS+ during that time.

     

    Actually, his best extended MLB hitting performance was not with the Twins, but rather over the first 3 months of 2013 when the Braves made him a bench player -- he batted .312 during that time, in about the same number of PA that he got with the Twins last year.  Which shows how much stats can fluctuate in samples that small.

     

    Not suggesting cutting him or anything, but penciling him in as an everyday player would be foolish at this point.

    Hicks should and will be the starting CF. He can improve immensely both with BA and SLG. A .250/.370/.370 line is not out of the question. If he can then be a good defensive CF until Buxton arrives, the other options are done.

    The "will" and the "should" to me are two separate things.

     

    Escobar is 26 and batted 60 points higher than Hicks who is 25. Both of them are prospects and similar in age But, not similar in intangibles or results.

     

    So, I would have to disagree with the "should" part of it and perhaps replace that word with "might."

     

    Hicks is far from a sure fire prospect and certainly not worthy of taking 50 batting average points out of the lineup. He might end up being a good player. But, I say let him get there in AAA first while putting your best 9 on the field every day on the big club.

     

    Just one man's opinion though.

    We can't just assume how a player performed last year is how they'll perform this year. rarely happens especially with players with so little ML time.

     

    IMO, Escobar hit far above his talents.  He's due to regress to the negative.   Even with the 60 point BA advantage Escobar had on Hicks (due to a pretty high BABIP) he still managed to be behind Hicks in OBP by 26 points. Hicks played about as bad as he could, seems he only has one way to go.

     

    And Hicks is actually an OF. 

    Edited by jimmer

    Santana is not going to last as a CF. He might not at SS either, but he has a chance there. Schafer is a pretty dangerous bet. Robinson is not a major league player, and probably not even a AAA player right now. It's weird to even mention him in this conversation.

    In today's chat over at Fangraphs, someone asked the host about his thoughts on Danny Santana for this year. He said 'tons of regression will hide the fact that the Twins don’t have a great other option and will probably ride even .260/.290/.380 with speed.'

     

    And you know, when we look at Santana's BA last year and some get excited.  Then we see he had a BABIP over .400 and wonder how sustainable is it.

    Edited by jimmer

    What ever happens, it's going to be an interesting season. It will be fun to see it all play out.

     

    I would rather see Escobar step to the plate with runners on first and second and no outs. I feel more confident in his ability to at the very least advance the runners and have a productive at bat at this moment in time.

     

    Hopefully, if Hicks gets the nod and Santana plays short, Hicks will surprise me.

     

    I would rather see Escobar step to the plate with runners on first and second and no outs. I feel more confident in his ability to at the very least advance the runners and have a productive at bat at this moment in time.

    Well, that scenario did happen four times last year and nine times in his career.  It's an interesting scenario to use as an example :-)

    I don't view Santana as a long term solution in CF. I'm just saying to start the season there with Escobar at short. That changes based on performance and who evolves and who regresses etc.

     

    I get it, Santana "might" regress. Escobar "may have" played beyond the level that he will play at long term. Also, Hicks "might" evolve in to a solid major league outfielder.

     

    To me, Escobar "did" produce more in 2014. So, if only for the first month or so of the season, it makes sense to put the two best performers out there and go with your best 9 players. It also sends a positive message in the clubhouse. 

    Well, the thing is, Torii Hunter back when, talked about how Kirby took him under his wing as a mentor, and because of that he thought it was his duty to do the same for the next CF, who was Denard Span. It became a thing among the CF's in the Twins organization, that they made sure they helped the next guy coming up. Span then did it with Revere. I don't dismiss the 'mentor' aspect at all, I think It's quite real in Torii's case..

    Hicksie is 25ish and Arcia is 23ish if I remember correctly. Ergo, Oswaldo could also be a mentoring candidate. The first rule of mentoring should be, if a guy is struggling in a position, don't take it away from him and force him across the diamond! If Arcia stays healthy and hits half of what it looks like he will, he is going to be the Twins right fielder. Defensively this is a lost year for him. Santana HAD to play CF. There was no one else at the time. Can anyone give me one reason why Hunter cannot play LF and leave Arcia in RF. It would seem to me that this move was a handshake agreement before he signed. There is no other rational reason for it.

    You have me curious. Hit me with the comparison between Hicks and Escobar in this scenario.  Even if it makes me look stupid :)

    Well, in that scenario, Escobar had 5 SH in 9 PA (most likely sac bunts) and his line is .000/.000/.000. Hicks has 6 PA, 2 SH, and a line of .250/.250/.250. 

     

    I guess what I was saying is that scenario seemed very arbitrary to point out because it's an incredibly small sample size, less arbitrary than saying 'I'm more comfortable with this guy because of how he hits on Tuesdays.' :-)

    Edited by jimmer

    Since I remain skeptical about Twins performance in 2015 I am all for playing Hicks until Buxton comes on board in July.  If Buxton is all we have been saying it is time to give him the Griffey/Trout treatment and let him grow in the bigs.  Get Rosario ready to replace Hunter and see if we can really lay the foundation for 2016.  If we think like Beane we will push the vets to get max value this summer and then get the next wave in with more in the minors to support them.

    Santana is not going to last as a CF. He might not at SS either, but he has a chance there. Schafer is a pretty dangerous bet. Robinson is not a major league player, and probably not even a AAA player right now. It's weird to even mention him in this conversation.

    The question should be, with the assumption Buxton is in the wings, "who is the best DEFENSIVE CF the Twins can put out there"? Using offensive as a criteria in that spot, at this time is not addressing the problems that this roster bring to the field.

    Well, in that scenario, Escobar had 5 SH in 9 PA (most likely sac bunts) and his line is .000/.000/.000. Hicks has 6 PA, 2 SH, and a line of .250/.250/.250. 

     

    I guess what I was saying is that scenario seemed very arbitrary to point out because it's an incredibly small sample size, less arbitrary than saying 'I'm more comfortable with this guy because of how he hits on Tuesdays.' :-)

    I get what you are saying :0)




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