Can The Twins Have An Elite Bullpen In 2016?

I want to see my best pitchers pitch the most innings which is why I want May to start, not relieve.  Ideally the Twins would know what to target in the Wade Davis mold.  Instead of May, why don't the Twins target a FA starting pitcher that has had minor success as a starter and throws hard, but just can't get over the hump to be consistently good for 6-7 inning stretches.  I'm sure there is a metric for it, but somehow target a starter who can dominate innings 1-2 and use FIP, SO/9, etc and see if you can convince that player to give up being a starter and sign him to pitch out of the pen. 

I want to see my best pitchers pitch the most innings which is why I want May to start, not relieve.  Ideally the Twins would know what to target in the Wade Davis mold.  Instead of May, why don't the Twins target a FA starting pitcher that has had minor success as a starter and throws hard, but just can't get over the hump to be consistently good for 6-7 inning stretches.  I'm sure there is a metric for it, but somehow target a starter who can dominate innings 1-2 and use FIP, SO/9, etc and see if you can convince that player to give up being a starter and sign him to pitch out of the pen. 

Example, although not a free agent, would be Drew Hutchinson.  He is still very young so highly unlikely to happen. But hear me out.   As a starter the kid strikes out 8+ per nine.  His ERA is inflated vs FIP.  He could be a monster out of the bullpen in 1-2 inning stretches. 

I think it's an incredible waste to keep May in the pen. 

I have agreed with this until very recently, and still do to some extent. But, and if this is a big but, if Molitor thinks he can get this team to the postseason, we've seen that 18 batters from the SPs and a dominant bullpen can go a long way. Perhaps May is better utilized in the 'pen, if only in the postseason.

Not sure, as of November 24, how we can be hopeful of a defensive uptick in 2016.

 

It's almost a certainty that the OF defense will take a step back, at least through the first two months, or more. The IF looks the same (READ- near or slightly below average), and most likely slightly down further if Sano takes over @ 3rd. And Murphy playing 25-30% or so of the games- if that is how it plays out- won't really move the defensive meter up at that position, either. 

I believe Escobar played better D than Santana and if Murphy is considered average it would probably be a slight upgrade to Suxuki.     Honestly the slight uptick comment was based mostly on Buxton.    I thought the overall defense was decent in 2015 and certainly better than 2014.   I would really hate to take a step backward because I think the improvement was reflected in the ERA as well.

I think that not protecting Zack Jones was a bad idea. The Twins could add someone like Soria or Madson to help improve the 'pen, but I don't think that the prospects will be elite right away, as they will go through growing pains. We could have a good bullpen, but I don't see us having an elite one.

I'm not saying never, no, I would never say that...... Sure, there would be times I would leave a starter out there, (many, many factors would go into the decision), but the penalty exists, and it is real. 

How severe is the penalty?  Is it worse than the penalty of having to bring in Tony Fiore or Jefferson Starship... er Manship?  Of course the more times the hitter sees the pitcher, the more the advantage sways to the hitter.  But it all depends on who's starting and coming in.

So make having a deep and effective pen a priority. Don't scrounge the scrap heap for important pieces of your pen...find quality arms. Like, say, a Trevor May.

Which is a great theory.  Some say it's a matter of time before we go to 9 men "rotations" throwing 3 innings at a time every 3 days.

Of course, in modern practicality, it would be hard to talk a great arm into being a middle inning guy, and hard to talk a GM into paying big money for a guy to pitch the 5th and or 6th inning, and hard to convince an effective starter into giving up the ball early.  It works if you've got 3-4 truly elite guys on the back end like the Royals.  But that's probably as hard as getting 3-4 studs to lead your rotation at which point you can by with a shallower pen.  But yes, if, hypothetically you can get Trevor May plus 3 guys better than Trevor May, well, you'd have the Royal's pen OR the Mets' rotation.  Hey, we can't lose!

A few thoughts:  1) I gleaned the pitching data from Yahoo sports--removing the relief innings pitched data--and have compiled this Table.

Name                                           IP (starter only)        ER     ERA (starter only)  GS    QS

May                                                 74.1                       38      4.60                        14     8

Duffey                                              58                         20       3.10                       10     7

Santana                                          108                        48       4.00                       17    11

Gibson                                            194.2                     83       3.84                       32    17

Hughes                                            152.1                    75       4.43                       25    14

Milhone                                            127.2                    56        3.95                      23    10

Nolasco                                             36.1                    26        6.44                        8      1

Pelfrey                                              164.2                   78        4.26                       30     13

These numbers don't place May in the rotation.  Plus, there is Berrios to consider--but he has NO major league experience to compare with the aforementioned pitchers.

2)  I remember a fact not yet presented in this discussion about the KC Royals (both 2014 and 2015 playoffs)--they came from behind frequently.   This point is above and beyond a "bullpen discussion"--but it does illustrate a difference between KC and the Twins.  KC also displayed a tendency to "add-on" to leads--the Twins not so much.  It seems that the Twins need to "score more" outweighs  the "bullpen need"--and is consistent with the changes made this off-season.  Bullpen isn't/wasn't the biggest problem last year.  Two issues outweigh the bullpen--improve scoring and get more quality starts  (see Table above).  The QS stat might be off a bit but the table indicated QS only amounted to about 50% of all starts.  Also, there were a rather high proportion  of QS where the SP did not complete 7 or more innings.  It's simple math--fewer SP innings, more RP innings with the concomitant wear/tear on the entire bullpen as well a "a search for the RP who fails".  

I'm not talking about revolutionizing pitcher use. I'm talking about maximizing run prevention for the last 3-4 innings of games for the 2016 Twins.

Get quality arms in the pen, more than just a couple, and then use them by trying to limit non dominant starters getting into trouble. When there is reason to avoid it, don't send a starter out for the seventh inning to face the top of the order in a winnable game. Get a fresh arm in there, BEFORE trouble brews.

As for asking players to perform as asked, if that's a problem, you have bigger problems.

Aren't the Twins doing something similar to this right now  [in a very small sense] ?  Otherwise, running Perkins out there in the 9th as often as they did in the 1st half last year doesn't make much sense to me.  Maximizing what they have for starters by minimizing their exposure makes a lot of sense to me.

A few thoughts:  1) I gleaned the pitching data from Yahoo sports--removing the relief innings pitched data--and have compiled this Table.

 

 

Name                                           IP (starter only)        ER     ERA (starter only)  GS    QS

 

May                                                 74.1                       38      4.60                        14     8

 

Duffey                                              58                         20       3.10                       10     7

 

Santana                                          108                        48       4.00                       17    11

 

Gibson                                            194.2                     83       3.84                       32    17

 

Hughes                                            152.1                    75       4.43                       25    14

 

Milhone                                            127.2                    56        3.95                      23    10

 

Nolasco                                             36.1                    26        6.44                        8      1

 

Pelfrey                                              164.2                   78        4.26                       30     13

 

These numbers don't place May in the rotation.  Plus, there is Berrios to consider--but he has NO major league experience to compare with the aforementioned pitchers.

 

 

2)  I remember a fact not yet presented in this discussion about the KC Royals (both 2014 and 2015 playoffs)--they came from behind frequently.   This point is above and beyond a "bullpen discussion"--but it does illustrate a difference between KC and the Twins.  KC also displayed a tendency to "add-on" to leads--the Twins not so much.  It seems that the Twins need to "score more" outweighs  the "bullpen need"--and is consistent with the changes made this off-season.  Bullpen isn't/wasn't the biggest problem last year.  Two issues outweigh the bullpen--improve scoring and get more quality starts  (see Table above).  The QS stat might be off a bit but the table indicated QS only amounted to about 50% of all starts.  Also, there were a rather high proportion  of QS where the SP did not complete 7 or more innings.  It's simple math--fewer SP innings, more RP innings with the concomitant wear/tear on the entire bullpen as well a "a search for the RP who fails".  

Using ERA can make some points but I don't think it works in this argument.  Trevor May is a young pitcher who was improving as a starter at the ML level.  Hell, if you just take out his first start of the season in which he got shelled by KC, he ERA drops down to 4.06.  Also he started 16 games and had a 4.36 ERA in those games. 

On the flip side Mike Pelfrey had a 3.86 ERA in his first 15 starts but ended his last 15 starts with a 4.77 ERA. 

Basically the point I am trying to make is sometimes the numbers alone don't tell the whole story or take into account nuances such as young starter who is learning vs veteran who is having best year of his career and much of it was based on luck.

Using ERA can make some points but I don't think it works in this argument.  Trevor May is a young pitcher who was improving as a starter at the ML level.  Hell, if you just take out his first start of the season in which he got shelled by KC, he ERA drops down to 4.06.  Also he started 16 games and had a 4.36 ERA in those games. 

 

On the flip side Mike Pelfrey had a 3.86 ERA in his first 15 starts but ended his last 15 starts with a 4.77 ERA. 

 

Basically the point I am trying to make is sometimes the numbers alone don't tell the whole story or take into account nuances such as young starter who is learning vs veteran who is having best year of his career and much of it was based on luck.

You beat me to it.  74 IP is not a sample I am going off.  His k per 9 of 8.6,  FIP of 3.25, ERA+ of 104, plus the eye test....which tells me has as good or better stuff than any other starter we have.

Looking at his game log, looks like he had 15 starts.  He had between 0-2 ER in 8 of them.  3 ER in three more. 

He needs to prove he is not one of our five best starters, not the other way around.

You beat me to it.  74 IP is not a sample I am going off.  His k per 9 of 8.6,  FIP of 3.25, ERA+ of 104, plus the eye test....which tells me has as good or better stuff than any other starter we have.

 

Looking at his game log, looks like he had 15 starts.  He had between 0-2 ER in 8 of them.  3 ER in three more. 

 

He needs to prove he is not one of our five best starters, not the other way around.

He had that one start late in the season when they put him on pitch count and he pitched 3 innings.  That was the 16th start.

May might never be a #1 starter type, but I think he will be a very good starter.  One other thing which is totally a guess by me (I'm not a Dr or body type analyzer - Is that a thing?) he has a build which looks like he could pitch a lot of innings without fear of injury.  Just has that "strong" type of look on the mound to me that he could be a consistent 200+ inning guy that actually performs well too.

Compare:   Santana   IP of each game started 8.0; 4.0; 7.2; 8.0; 5.2; 6.0; 2.1; 6.0; 7.2; 2.2; 7.0; 8.0; 7.0;7.0; 7.0; 7.0; 7.0   (2) games of 8.0; 92) games of 7+; (6) of 7.0; (2) of 6.0; and (4) games of <6.0  These are stats of a real Starting Pitcher.

May:  5.1; 6.0; 5.2; 4.0; 6.2; 7.0; 6.0; 7.0; 6.0; 5.0; 6.0; 0.1; 6.1; 3.0  No games beyond 7.0; (2) games 7.0; (2) games 6+; (4) games 6.0; (6) games >6.0  In short May isn't dependable.  He generally has to be removed after 5 innings--or else the roof caves--which tears apart the bullpen.  Every pitcher has some clunkers, Santana  had 4/17 less than 6.0  (one was 5.2).  But May had 6/14 <6.0 innings--nearly half of his starts.  May was basically the same as Pelfrey (who started in August and September when arguably a bit more tired than in the first half of the season) and Hughes--who had a "regression season".  

Basically every starter (except Nolasco) outpitched May as a starter.  Citing K/9 only emphasizes that May belongs in the pen not in the rotation.  Face it this guy is not a quality starter--he is a RP.  he will serve best as either a "set-up"/future closer, or as the long guy/spot starter for an injured SP.

Did the relief role contribute to Trevor May's back trouble in September?

Mike Berardino reported following the season.

"May also wonders if the lower-back spasms that plagued him over the final five-plus weeks would have been easier to ward off had he remained in the rotation. In his starter days, his hip would usually bother him in August, but he was able to manage the problem better with at least four days of rest between starts."

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_28924045/twins-trevor-may-has-one-goal-return-rotation

Compare:   Santana   IP of each game started 8.0; 4.0; 7.2; 8.0; 5.2; 6.0; 2.1; 6.0; 7.2; 2.2; 7.0; 8.0; 7.0;7.0; 7.0; 7.0; 7.0   (2) games of 8.0; 92) games of 7+; (6) of 7.0; (2) of 6.0; and (4) games of <6.0  These are stats of a real Starting Pitcher.

 

 

May:  5.1; 6.0; 5.2; 4.0; 6.2; 7.0; 6.0; 7.0; 6.0; 5.0; 6.0; 0.1; 6.1; 3.0  No games beyond 7.0; (2) games 7.0; (2) games 6+; (4) games 6.0; (6) games >6.0  In short May isn't dependable.  He generally has to be removed after 5 innings--or else the roof caves--which tears apart the bullpen.  Every pitcher has some clunkers, Santana  had 4/17 less than 6.0  (one was 5.2).  But May had 6/14 <6.0 innings--nearly half of his starts.  May was basically the same as Pelfrey (who started in August and September when arguably a bit more tired than in the first half of the season) and Hughes--who had a "regression season".  

 

Basically every starter (except Nolasco) outpitched May as a starter.  Citing K/9 only emphasizes that May belongs in the pen not in the rotation.  Face it this guy is not a quality starter--he is a RP.  he will serve best as either a "set-up"/future closer, or as the long guy/spot starter for an injured SP.

The Angels probably made a mistake in 2005 by allowing Santana to develop as a starter. Six of his first 10 starts his rookie season went less than 6 innings. He ended the season better but still averaged less than 6 innings a start his rookie year. He likely tore apart the bullpen.

Ten years later, teams are even more conservative with pitch count. Managing pitch count is part of the learning curve for young pitchers at the major league level. Teams can avoid that learning curve and save the bullpen by continually buying mediocre veterans who are real starting pitchers. I believe the Twins prefer this direction.

Compare:   Santana   IP of each game started 8.0; 4.0; 7.2; 8.0; 5.2; 6.0; 2.1; 6.0; 7.2; 2.2; 7.0; 8.0; 7.0;7.0; 7.0; 7.0; 7.0   (2) games of 8.0; 92) games of 7+; (6) of 7.0; (2) of 6.0; and (4) games of <6.0  These are stats of a real Starting Pitcher.

 

 

May:  5.1; 6.0; 5.2; 4.0; 6.2; 7.0; 6.0; 7.0; 6.0; 5.0; 6.0; 0.1; 6.1; 3.0  No games beyond 7.0; (2) games 7.0; (2) games 6+; (4) games 6.0; (6) games >6.0  In short May isn't dependable.  He generally has to be removed after 5 innings--or else the roof caves--which tears apart the bullpen.  Every pitcher has some clunkers, Santana  had 4/17 less than 6.0  (one was 5.2).  But May had 6/14 <6.0 innings--nearly half of his starts.  May was basically the same as Pelfrey (who started in August and September when arguably a bit more tired than in the first half of the season) and Hughes--who had a "regression season".  

 

Basically every starter (except Nolasco) outpitched May as a starter.  Citing K/9 only emphasizes that May belongs in the pen not in the rotation.  Face it this guy is not a quality starter--he is a RP.  he will serve best as either a "set-up"/future closer, or as the long guy/spot starter for an injured SP.

I am not going to do the leg work here, but I bet if you start with pitchers that failed to consistently go 6-8 innings over their first 20 or so starts you could end up with some good starters on that list.

Had those teams reached the conclusion, based on that those pitchers weren't going to cut it and moved them to the pen.....