Twins Video
Now, I’m not going to admit that I was wrong here because I made a vow on my wedding day to never admit that I am wrong and I don’t plan on starting here. That being said, I was less right then I could have been regarding Suzuki’s immediate future in 2014.
At that time, Suzuki’s decent peripherals and above average line drive rate to all fields in conjunction with his new approach suggested to me that he had enough hitting foundation to produce a good batting average/on-base combo. It went against the convention and percentages but even with some leakage, he still could likely post strong numbers. However, almost immediately the story was published, Suzuki proved me wron...less right than I could have been (it takes a big man to admit when he was less right than he could have been). And he continued to do so throughout 2015. Just when you thought he hit rock bottom, the earth would open up and reveal another seven story fall into a slumping abyss.
READ: Position Battles - Catcher
On July 31, 2014, Kurt Suzuki was hitting .304 with a solid .367 on-base percentage. Both figures were 50 points higher than his career norms. Nevertheless, the Twins boldly doubled down, sharing a similar belief that they could bet against the prevailing wisdom. From August through September of that year, he supplied a .240 batting average with a .290 on-base percentage. He basically replicated those numbers throughout the duration of the 2015 season, ending with a .240 average and a .296 on-base.
Suzuki’s problem, according to manager Paul Molitor, had a lot do with what was going on between the ears.
"I think sometimes when you get off to poor starts, even as a veteran, it becomes an uphill battle,” Molitor said of Suzuki’s 2015 struggles. “It's hard to look up at the scoreboard and see numbers that aren't very appealing. And you're trying to find ways to get it back into a more comfortable state and you end up thinking about the wrong things instead of just going out there and trusting each at bat.”
On July 31, 2015, one year after signing his $12 million extension, Suzuki’s numbers were pitiful. His .230 average and .288 on-base percentage were certainly unbecoming of a starting catcher but there they were, glowing down from above on the giant Target Field video board, reminding him of how little he was contributing to his team.
“I always told him, ‘Don't worry about what you hit now, worry about what you hit now for the rest of the season,’” Molitor said. “It's all about going forward. He wanted so much to be a part of it. He'd tell me ‘We're winning, we gotta chance but I feel like I'm not doing anything to help the team. I can't throw anybody out, I can't get a hit.’ So it bothered him.”
Unlike 2014, there was a slight uptick in his production over the final months (“He realized we were playing for something,” Molitor reasoned.) but not substantial and certainly not enough to give anyone any reassurance that he could be counted on to anchor the position. The Twins were definitely not confident in his abilities to rebound, instead nabbing John Ryan Murphy to contend for the job.
READ: John Hicks Excited To Join Twins
The Twins say they were not banking on the same offensive production out of Suzuki for 2015 (in spite of extending him for an additional two years at the height of his output on July 31 suggesting otherwise) but feel that he is capable of splitting the difference.
“We got an extreme amount of production out of him two years ago,” general manager Terry Ryan said earlier this offseason. “Nobody was expecting that level going forward because, all right he had an awful good year. But somewhere in between he should settle in.”
Can Suzuki actually do enough to finish somewhere in between? As Molitor said, Suzuki’s problems might have a lot to do with his mindset but the data shows that what made his 2014 season so good and his 2015 so bad was the amount of success he had when going the other way.
Why this happened is unclear. Perhaps it goes back to what Molitor said about him trying too much rather than hitting what was given. Pitchers seemingly attacked him in a similar manner but with starkly different results, especially going the other way. Consider this: Had Suzuki only pulled or gone up the middle, he would have had a .312/.309/.414 batting line in 2015. Unfortunately, he went 15-for-89 on balls hit the other way, tanking his overall numbers.
Looking over the video of the two seasons, you see him often pulling off of pitches he drove the other way in 2014. Here are two similar pitches he hit to right, the top is 2014 and the bottom is 2015:
Almost the exact same pitch at the exact same speed in a very similar location. In the top, Suzuki laces a liner to right. In the lower example, Suzuki skies out to right (as you might have suspected with the bat angle). Now watch the two swings in motion and watch what his head does.
http://i.imgur.com/KFDUd0r.gif
http://i.imgur.com/tSe53n8.gif
In the firstexample above (2014), his head remains still and follows the pitch to right. In the one below (2015), he is pulling off the ball, which explains why he “just missed it”. This example is a microcosm of what made him outperform in 2014 and disappoint in 2015.
It is possible for him to generate enough offense to avoid being a liability in the lineup but in order to do so, it appears that Suzuki needs to have at least some success going the other way. There are no guarantees he can do that. After all, the years and miles have piled up on his body so who is to say he will even repeat the same level of success pulling the ball or going up the middle as he did in 2015, let alone driving the ball the other way.
“We all know he takes a beating,” Molitor said. “I can't really empathize with that. I don't know what it's like to take foul tips or get hit by follow-throughs and just the pounding those guys take squatting everyday like that. It's gotta take it's toll.”
Could the years of abuse behind the plate hinder Suzuki's production?
Molitor continued, “I think there are studies about catchers after their 30th birthday about offensive trends and things, so It obviously takes its toll.
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now