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The Twins are hoping continuity will pay off for their bullpen in 2025. Last year they watched every outside addition flop, derailing an otherwise highly effective unit. This time around they are poised to include almost exclusively incumbents in their spring reliever mix, aside from a few of the usual minor-league signings and longshot fliers.
Based on the guaranteed contracts they've handed out and their rare decision to add a player in the Rule 5 draft, this would seemingly project as Minnesota's eight-man Opening Day bullpen as of this moment:
- Jhoan Durán
- Griffin Jax
- Cole Sands
- Brock Stewart
- Jorge Alcalá
- Justin Topa
- Michael Tonkin
- Eiberson Castellano
In sizing up this group, and assessing the next layer of bullpen depth, a few pressing questions come to mind. But more than anything, I'm hit with a strong sense of optimism. So let's start there.
1. Is the Twins bullpen as good as projections think?
At the beginning of the offseason, FanGraphs was already projecting Minnesota as MLB's top projected bullpen (per fWAR) in 2025. More recently, their ZiPS forecast dropped and corroborated that ranking. "Though it’s certainly not an official projection yet, ZiPS believes at this moment that the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball," wrote Dan Szymborski.
Projections are projections. But this does speak to the relative level of stability and proven performance boasted by the Twins bullpen compared to others. And I really cannot overstate how impactful a truly elite bullpen can be on the outcome of a season. While an extreme case, last year the Guardians won 92 games and reached the ALCS despite a lineup and starting rotation that were simply not special. Cleveland's bullpen repeatedly turned close games in their favor. We saw the opposite happen to Minnesota down the stretch.
The Twins are hoping that their starting pitching and offense can carry them to big improvement in 2025. But if this bullpen lives up to its projected potential, that will buy them a lot of margin for error on both fronts.
2. Will the Opening Day bullpen have a left-hander?
When you look at the slated eight-man bullpen above, the lack of a southpaw is one thing that sticks out. With a manager who loves to play late-game matchups, are the Twins really going to head into the season with an unorthodox all-righty staff?
It's not unthinkable. We know this team's philosophy is that, with the proper traits, right-handers can be plenty effective against lefty hitters – and the Twins have some pitchers with those traits. We also know how volatile and fluid the relief pitching unit can be. Even if all eight of the pitchers mentioned above make it to Opening Day, it's only a matter of time before spots open up for others.
With that in mind, I'm more interested to know which left-handed pitchers will be at the top of the list to get opportunities. Kody Funderburk is in that mix. Brent Headrick is still on the 40-man. Connor Prielipp could be a sneaky, high-ceiling option.
3. Which direction will Jhoan Durán go?
I didn't find Durán's 2024 season all that concerning, on its own. Yes, his career-high 3.64 ERA was underwhelming, but the secondary metrics painted a much rosier picture. He closed out the season with a 32-to-3 K/BB ratio and zero home runs allowed over 19 innings in his final 20 appearances. He was dominant as ever.
Durán managed this despite losing a full tick on his fastball, which dropped from averaging 101.8 MPH in 2023 to 100.5 MPH in 2024. Hey, that's still top-of-the-scale heat and, like I said, he was dealing for the most part. But what if he loses another tick and his average FB drops into double digits? Eventually, the reductions start to catch up in terms of their impact on an overall arsenal.
If Durán gets back to pitching exactly the way he did last year, I'm not worried. But if his fastball shows any signs of further loss in spring training, it'll be worth keeping an eye on.
4. Will Louie Varland be a reliever from day one?
The Twins haven't officially committed to using Varland as a reliever going forward, but it seems likely coming off his immensely rough 2024 campaign. Given what we saw out of him in late 2023, Varland has the makings of an absolute game-changer out of the bullpen, so he's a major X-factor in this unit's outlook.
However, even if the Twins do formally convert Varland into a relief role, there's no guarantee he'll open the season with the major-league club. He struggled even as a reliever during his time with the Twins last year, which was one of the more concerning aspects of his season. But hopefully a more focused and intentional build-up in the role will set him up for greater success.
Heading into camp, Varland seems to have his work cut out for him, given that he has options remaining and the guys in front of him don't. (Plus, a left-hander is probably ahead in line for any spots that opens up.) Varland's job in spring will be to pitch so well that he forces the team's hand.
5. Can Brock Stewart finally stay healthy?
This feels like the pivotal question when evaluating the Twins bullpen's true upside. A healthy Stewart, pitching like he has during his limited time on the mound in Minnesota (2.28 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 12.3 K/9) can lift the unit to another level entirely. A back end with Durán, Jax, Sands and Stewart all clicking would have the ability to take this team places. No one's matching that.
Stewart feels like the biggest stretch among the four, and he almost has to be considered more of a bonus than a planned fixture. The injuries have been constant and unrelenting. He underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery last August and there seems to be optimism it will finally resolve the pain that plagued him throughout last year. If the Twins could even get 40 innings out of Stewart it'd be a huge boost; it'd also be his highest inning total in the majors.
Let's hear from you all. What are your biggest questions as you look at the 2025 Twins bullpen?
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